Reality?

[Nicknack]

You know what's funny about this team - and this is no knock to anyone here - but so much would have to happen before the consensus on this board was that we are a good team, much more than what I believe is justified. Think about it... if we win the next five heading into the UNC game (which I doubt), would folks around here call them good then? Probably not, right? Many or most would point to the "easy" front-loaded schedule and look to the inevitable loss against UNC that is looming, even with a 7-0 record in the conference and 16-4 overall along with a 9 game win streak. Would others outside Orange Nation think of us as a good team at that point, uh, yeah.

Okay, now stick with me... we beat UNC on THEIR home court and go to 8-0 in the conference and 17-4 overall with a 11 game win streak. Are we good now? I believe some would STILL say not really and talk about soon getting exposed by Dook, VA, Lousiville, and others. It would probably be a divided camp. I certainly could be wrong, but I doubt it.

My point here is that yeah, we are currently a mediocre team but I think many consider this team in worse terms than the reality because of pre-season expectations. Think about it, most expected Kaleb to be a run and gun type guy that would produce right away and welcomed him to replace Ennis (not that anyone really wanted Ennis gone, but most were happy to see a different style at the point - uh, I'm not so sure about that style right now). Here is irony for you... we are actually worse in transition and on fast breaks than last year. Remember how McC was going to be a beast and a certain one and done - he gone, right? Maybe he still will become a beast by season end and go the NBA after this year but right now he is actually a liability at times for us when on the court. Overall with this team, most of us expected so much more and to see what we have now has led many to over-react at times. Again, I am not saying everyone but many.

Just an observation and an opportunity to spend some time on the board rather than working.

 

[jordoo]

If we get to 17-4 then we are likely to get to 20-4 before playing Duke in which case we would be a pretty good team although still pretty unproven against the big dogs. I'd be fine with saying we were a good team at that point and we would certainly be ranked somewhere, likely in the low teens but like many of the teams ranked there now its hard to say that they are indeed very good teams when you really break them down. College bball doesn't have many very good teams this year period so 20-4 in a P5 makes you good.

That said at that point the backend being so stacked would really show us how good we are comparatively. If we win say 4 of the last 7 then we are pretty damn good and likely a threat to beat anyone on any given night. Anything less then we are just as said above good but right their in the mix of say 20 other good teams. Anything more than 4 and you would have to start to wonder how many teams are actually out there that are better, not a whole lot.

 

[HoustonCuse]

In some ways this team is not purely bad, they are just inconsistent with a lean towards poor play. They put up up some stretches that were as good as anything we've seen over the past few years. Basically the entire Nova game up to about 4 minutes left, the first half against VT, etc. Right now they just cannot sustain it for an entire game. There is reason to believe they will lose a What game or two and also reason to believe that they will will beat one of the power teams in the conference. I think we will see both of those things happen this year.

The required improvements are 1. better consistency, 2. better poise against pressure, 3. better game closeout, 4. McC getting back to early season form. We have seen flashes of all these except #4 and I for one think Chris will bounce back and have some great moments the rest of the way.

 

[jordoo]

In some ways this team is not purely bad, they are just inconsistent with a lean towards poor play. They put up up some stretches that were as good as anything we've seen over the past few years. Basically the entire Nova game up to about 4 minutes left, the first half against VT, etc. Right now they just cannot sustain it for an entire game. There is reason to believe they will lose a What game or two and also reason to believe that they will will beat one of the power teams in the conference. I think we will see both of those things happen this year.

The required improvements are 1. better consistency, 2. better poise against pressure, 3. better game closeout, 4. McC getting back to early season form. We have seen flashes of all these except #4 and I for one think Chris will bounce back and have some great moments the rest of the way.

I agree with this and the high's this team has exhibited are plenty high enough as each of or players high's have been. Its more or less overall consistency and then continuity with what we are doing on offense and defense.

 

[pfister1]

I think what you are missing is that some people are defining good or bad solely on record. Others are defining it by what they actually see happening on the floor and in the context of how what they have seen on the floor is likely to impact the team's ability to achieve at the finish line.

I guess what I'm saying is if we get to 16-4 or 17-4, but limp to the finish line again like a wounded animal...so what? I'm less concerned about our record (aside from the necessity of have a sufficiently good record to enable us to qualify for an at large bid) and more concerned that we establish and eventually maintain an upward trajectory where we see the team improving and getting better as the season continues to progress.

At the end of the year I'd like to feel like I did following the '12 and '13 seasons - where I felt like we got better and played to our potential ...... rather than I did after the '14 season where I felt like we plateaued and then fell off of a cliff at the end of the year.

 

[SoBristol]

It isn't so much the W/L record (which is OK) as looking at the weak guard play and how McCullough is struggling. Gbinije is fine, and even showing some upside. Roberson had a tough outing against GT, but he has shown more in other recent games. But the guards & McCullough are simply struggling and looking overmatched.

 

[Brooky03]

'good' is relative. If we were coming off an NIT season, the overal sentiment would be generally positive. Since we're coming off 5 years of domination though, this team looks absolutely terrible in relative terms.

I think this team is 'good' in that it's a NCAAT team, in the top 50 best in college bball. This is obviously a subjective assessment. I wouldn't consider the team 'good' in comparison to the last few teams we've had.

 

[Nicknack]

I think what you are missing is that some people are defining good or bad solely on record. Others are defining it by what they actually see happening on the floor and in the context of how what they have seen on the floor is likely to impact the team's ability to achieve at the finish line.

I get what you are saying, but that's not really the point of my original post. I'm just talking about hypothetically if we get to 17-4 (not where we are now). For me, if we get to 17-4, no matter what that looks like on the court, that would mean that they are a pretty good. We would be 17-4, 8-0 in conference, on an 11 game win streak and just finishing up a huge win against UNC on the road. This all coming from a team that started the season 6-4 looking clearly NIT bound at the time. At some point, the record does mean something based on what we would have to do to get it. I just don't think for a second that a team that isn't "good" could pull something like that off.

 

[jimsonjunction]

Great points. I also think you're hitting on a common trait across all sports fandom. And it's funny because if you're the GM of a team, the worst thing you can do is over-value your own talent. But as fans, we tend to under-value our own talent.

We know every flaw and every wart of all of our players. We don't know other teams as well, so we don't recognize their deficiencies as much. I'm always reminded of this when I read the "Opponent Q & A" on Nunes. For those who don't know, it's when the writer at Nunes chats with the writer of an upcoming opponent. Oftentimes, each writer ends up explaining the flaws of their team and how they can be beaten.

It's kind of like the girl that's a 10 from a distance, but a 5 up close (sorry to be crass). In reality, we're all just a bunch of fives.

 

[SWC75]

It's all about the tent poles. Get them all up and we'll be pretty good.

 

[Orangefanforever]

This years team is really not as "bad" as many of the posters (and nation) are making us out. We have lots of individual talent. We need a leader, a guard, to step up and direct the show. G is starting to be this leader. I prefer to look at the glass half full. I personally believe the team can play ball with any one. They need to learn how to win the bigger games...Confidence can play a major factor for this years team..Either way SU is my squad..always has been..always will be...

 

[TBCuse11]

A dominant big man can keep teams in games vs superior talent. Rak is proving to be that and, although i still think we are a 19-12 regular season team (10-8 ACC), if he keeps this up then we certainly could upset one of the big boys. But to focus on record is not really a good way to go about it when we will have played the bottom dwellers the first month or so.

EX: would any person in America call us a "good" team after watching us WIN a couple day ago? I doubt it.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think what you are missing is that some people are defining good or bad solely on record. Others are defining it by what they actually see happening on the floor and in the context of how what they have seen on the floor is likely to impact the team's ability to achieve at the finish line.

I guess what I'm saying is if we get to 16-4 or 17-4, but limp to the finish line again like a wounded animal...so what? I'm less concerned about our record (aside from the necessity of have a sufficiently good record to enable us to qualify for an at large bid) and more concerned that we establish and eventually maintain an upward trajectory where we see the team improving and getting better as the season continues to progress.

At the end of the year I'd like to feel like I did following the '12 and '13 seasons - where I felt like we got better and played to our potential ... rather than I did after the '14 season where I felt like we plateaued and then fell off of a cliff at the end of the year.

The funny thing is when everyone talks about good seasons we have had, hardly anybody talks about our year 2 years ago. I'm not sure why. It's probably my favorite team out of the last 6, but i know its not a popular season with a lot of posters, cause of the way we won. It wasn't necessarily always pretty. It was literally the only year out of the previous 6 where we actually played better at the end of the year than we did at the beginning of the season or during the season. That team took it's lumps and was better for it.

The 2012-2013 season is a prime example of why not to throw the towel in and call us an automatic bubble or automatic NIT team. Past success or failure doesn't necessarily predict future success or failure. You must earn it, or you could lose it.

 

[moqui]

the defense is solid; not the difference-making defense of the 2010 or 2012 teams, but solid.

the offense has been the worst we've seen since Billy Celuck and DeShaun Williams were on the court.

I think the wins will begin to really pile up and SU is likely to be no worse than 7-2 in conference at the halfway mark. Which is good because ultimately it is wins that matter.

But in order to be called a good team at that point, we need to see some improvement in the offense over the next several games. Right now we are 39th in KenPom, which is slightly off our floor of 42. Our offense is ranked 119th. It's never going to climb high because the poor early performances are already baked into the cake, but if the offense can get up to, say, 80th by the half way mark and the defense stays at the same level, then the Orange would either be a top 25 Pomeroy team or very close to it. That kind of statistical improvement to go along with the wins would should change a few minds.

 

[pearl31]

The 2012-2013 season is a prime example of why not to throw the towel in and call us an automatic bubble or automatic NIT team.

Good post. That team looked horrendous at times - @ Pitt and both times vs G'town come to mind

 

[Cusefan0307]

the defense is solid; not the difference-making defense of the 2010 or 2012 teams, but solid.

the offense has been the worst we've seen since Billy Celuck and DeShaun Williams were on the court.

I think the wins will begin to really pile up and SU is likely to be no worse than 7-2 in conference at the halfway mark. Which is good because ultimately it is wins that matter.

But in order to be called a good team at that point, we need to see some improvement in the offense over the next several games. Right now we are 39th in KenPom, which is slightly off our floor of 42. Our offense is ranked 119th. It's never going to climb high because the poor early performances are already baked into the cake, but if the offense can get up to, say, 80th by the half way mark and the defense stays at the same level, then the Orange would either be a top 25 Pomeroy team or very close to it. That kind of statistical improvement to go along with the wins would should change a few minds.

Before the Georgia Tech game I think we were like 39th Defensively. Then we Moved to 16th. I think our offense went from something like 80 to 119.

 

[moqui]

Before the Georgia Tech game I think we were like 39th Defensively. Then we Moved to 16th. I think our offense went from something like 80 to 119.

wow, really? I hadn't noticed that. Those are huge moves. I was wrong - there is room to move well up the offensive ladder if they stop sucking start performing

 

[Cusefan0307]

wow, really? I hadn't noticed that. Those are huge moves. I was wrong - there is room to move well up the offensive ladder if they stop sucking start performing

The biggest jump in both I have ever seen after one game, I guess not really surprising considering how bad both teams were offensively.

 

[RF2044]

In some ways this team is not purely bad, they are just inconsistent with a lean towards poor play. They put up up some stretches that were as good as anything we've seen over the past few years. Basically the entire Nova game up to about 4 minutes left, the first half against VT, etc. Right now they just cannot sustain it for an entire game. There is reason to believe they will lose a What game or two and also reason to believe that they will will beat one of the power teams in the conference. I think we will see both of those things happen this year.

The required improvements are 1. better consistency, 2. better poise against pressure, 3. better game closeout, 4. McC getting back to early season form. We have seen flashes of all these except #4 and I for one think Chris will bounce back and have some great moments the rest of the way.

Great post.

 

[HakAttack]

The funny thing is when everyone talks about good seasons we have had, hardly anybody talks about our year 2 years ago. I'm not sure why. It's probably my favorite team out of the last 6, but i know its not a popular season with a lot of posters, cause of the way we won. It wasn't necessarily always pretty. It was literally the only year out of the previous 6 where we actually played better at the end of the year than we did at the beginning of the season or during the season. That team took it's lumps and was better for it.

The 2012-2013 season is a prime example of why not to throw the towel in and call us an automatic bubble or automatic NIT team. Past success or failure doesn't necessarily predict future success or failure. You must earn it, or you could lose it.

That was my favorite team by far because of the run they put together in March, starting with the final BET.

My favorite combined years were the 11-12 Regular season where we lost one game, and the 12-13 post-season, where we got to the final four. Amazing to be an Orange fan during those stretches.

 

[Hoov50]

Good is a relative term. Against competition from 15-20 years ago I would only call 3-5 teams in all of the NCAA good this year. Against today's competition we may be good already.

Look at '03 for example many of us (myself included) would argue that SU has had numerous teams better than that team. However, against that year's competition (minus UConn) we had the best team.

I think too many fans are comparing this year's team to other SU teams of the past (both recent and longer ago) instead of comparing this year's team to the mediocrity of the 14-15 NCAA.

 

[Flacusian]

Nicknack... really thought provoking post. You make some really interesting points. I say if we get to 17-4 we will likely be ranked in the top 25...

But then we have to run the gauntlet, and that will be where the rubber meets the road with respect to the season litmus test whether we are a "good" team or not.

I believe that the consensus at this point is we need to get Chris M going, need some improved play from Kaleb Joseph and we also need consistent production from Tyler Roberson. We know what we have with Trevor, Rak, and Silent G for the most part. If we can get production from players # 4 and 5 then the range of favorable outcomes for this seasons team expands considerably.

Personally, I think they will continue to improve and by seasons end/ tourney time... they will be a "Good" team by most peoples estimation.