Yup. This is the real point to make. No one -- or at least almost no one -- knows how recruiting is actually going. People here (myself included) draw conclusions from offers and highlight films, reported sizes and internet rumors. Coaches go to combines and meet with players and try to determine character, projectability and try to weigh ceiling/floor potential with each player.
But at the end of the day it's an absolutely inexact science for coaches and completely foolish for fans to spend much time worrying about it. And, as for recruiting sites, they are fine but extremely limited by the natural limits of trying to rank 2,000 players each year:
-- there is no set criteria for evaluation
-- they need to sell subscriptions/get users (thus skewing ratings from time to time)
-- there is a vast disparity between the qualifications of different writers
-- they are comparing a 17-year-old who started playing football 3 years ago in Mass. to an 18-year-old who's been doing nothing but playing football in Texas since the age of 2
-- they have no idea about work ethic/personality/educational standing for most players
It's just too hard to tell. And, as for DM's track record, how can anyone grade it as anything other than incomplete right now? It's not stellar, certainly, but it's also not awful. If we are sitting here in November and -- even if our record is a bit ugly -- we've seen some good things from Hale/Kobena/West/Fleming, AAM/Gulley/Smith, Broyld/Hunt we may think completely differently about his recruiting than we do today.