Reluctantly back by Unpopular Demand, a weekend review (Feb 15-Feb 17) of other mediocre basketball teams

[jncuse]

I have included a viewing schedule for the teams ranked on average seeding per the bracket matrix. The numbers of % in and Avg may appear slightly different than the matrix because I only considered brackets that were updated after our ugly NC St game. (For those wondering before that game our avg seed was around 8.5). No one dropped us out, but our avg seed did take a hit from 8.5 to 9.3

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2018-2019 NCAA Men's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com (If you want to look at the "nitty-gritty" of the teams, this is a good link for that)

Sorted by Game Time. Many mediocre teams have Q1 win opportunities this weekend as highlighted below

 

[jdubs30]

You’re the man jncuse!

 

[NineOneSeven]

Part of me loves the bubble just for this LOL

 

[NineOneSeven]

Couple notes- still so much season left and we are currently okay, but if things align perfectly (in a bad way) that nc state loss could be big. Similarly, whatever happens against Clemson in a few weeks.

 

[jdubs30]

Also to anyone who hasn’t followed the bubble this year - everyone starting with “3rd to last in” all the way down to “10th to last out” all are very very weak

 

[jncuse]

I have always enjoyed following the bubble even in years that we are not part of it. I hate the fact that we are part of it this year. I wasn't expecting Top 10, but I wasn't expecting this either.

I am not even going to use the statement the bubble is weak this year. As usual the bubble is very mediocre. I started to think the other day why the bubble teams have apparently weakened so much the past half dozen years. and my conclusion is the rise and consolidation of power conferences and the death of the good mid-major conference.

Yes we still have the AAC and Big East, which are competent conferences outside of the top 5, But in the 2000s the MVC, the A-10, and the MWC would be good for 7-10 bids a year. Those are now one or 2 bid leagues. Those teams are in part not as good, but also as those leagues have lost a few good teams it makes it harder for their better teams to garner a good resume.

What has happened is the P5+Big East have dominated the # of at-larges much more so than 10 years ago (I believe) although I don't have the numbers in front of me.

 

[jncuse]

Also to anyone who hasn’t followed the bubble this year - everyone starting with “3rd to last in” all the way down to “10th to last out” all are very very weak

Absolutely. That is the line when things get confusing

Temple is 1-6 vs Q1, 5-6 overall vs Q1-Q2.
Arizona St is 4-1 vs Q1 (good), 7-5 overall vs Q1-Q2. That is nice. But they 3 bad losses, including two Q4 losses (yikes)
Then there is Indiana who is 4-9 in the Big Ten conference, but the last team in.
The first team out is Nebraska who is currently 4-10 in the Big Ten.


Another strange one Oklahoma, who at 3-9 in the Big 12, is currently the 8th last in. They do have Q1+Q2 wins to this point (8-10), and no bad losses. And its not like their schedule gets softer down the stretch. If they go 3-3 down the stretch, they will be a solid contender at 6-12. (Further post will come on B10 and B12 after)

 

[jncuse]

I mentioned the B10 and B12 before. Oklahoma at 3-9 in conference, Indiana at 4-9 in conference, and Nebraska at 4-10 in conference, are all in (or Nebraska case first out)

The B10 and B12 had big pre-seasons and almost all of their programs are top 75 in NET. Makes it easy to pile up Q1 and Q2 wins. The other day it came up that no team has been 4 games under .500 in conference in over 20 years.

That will change this year (although it will certainly will not be to the benefit of am an ACC team). Eye yest wise some may think the best conference is the ACC wise, but metrics wise they are a bit behind in the B10 and the B12)

And the committee has always leaned on its metrics.
It has been both very kind to the P-12 when it was good by the numbers, and vice versa.

This year it is the BIg Ten. Nebraska was 13-5 in conference last year, and wasn't that close because the metrics were way down for the B10. One year later, they could be in at 7-11.

 

[Knicks411]

I HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS YES

 

[Knicks411]

So like the amazing thing to me is at this point we are not just in, but like, solidly in.

Also interesting is I know the NET has replaced the RPI, but I wonder exactly how they're going to treat it

 

[jncuse]

So like the amazing thing to me is at this point we are not just in, but like, solidly in.

Also interesting is I know the NET has replaced the RPI, but I wonder exactly how they're going to treat it

How they will treat the NET is a good question. They had given up on the RPI as a metric to compare teams... although they used to judge the aulity if opponents.

They have more faith in the NET, so if a team is 37 vs 46 for example will that mean a lot now.

 

[Vorony]

This is why I’m not understanding some of the meltdowns on this board over the past several days. Yes, there’s definitely reason for concern, but we aren’t even close to that in/out line right now. The past few seasons have been a different story, so I guess I can understand why the doom and gloom around here. But we have a lot more opportunities in front of us, and I think the team rebounds nicely against Louisville on Wednesday (no pun intended, but hopefully we out rebound them too). We have a better profile than the majority of teams below us - as of today.

 

[syrBossHogg]

So like the amazing thing to me is at this point we are not just in, but like, solidly in.

Also interesting is I know the NET has replaced the RPI, but I wonder exactly how they're going to treat it

We have bad losses this year but they're not close as bad as the ones we had in say, 2017.

 

[Cusefan0307]

This is why I’m not understanding some of the meltdowns on this board over the past several days. Yes, there’s definitely reason for concern, but we aren’t even close to that in/out line right now. The past few seasons have been a different story, so I guess I can understand why the doom and gloom around here. But we have a lot more opportunities in front of us, and I think the team rebounds nicely against Louisville on Wednesday (no pun intended, but hopefully we out rebound them too). We have a better profile than the majority of teams below us - as of today.

Most fans expected us to be on the 4 line or higher.

 

[Vorony]

Most fans expected us to be on the 4 line or higher.

Agreed... as did I at the start of the season. But there are also several posters that swear we aren’t a tournament team and that we’re already on the bubble sweating it out. That’s simply not true - not even close right now. We can’t sleepwalk through any more games, but this team is definitely capable of grabbing 2-3 more wins.

 

[Knicks411]

How they will treat the NET is a good question. They had given up on the RPI as a metric to compare teams... although they used to judge the aulity if opponents.

They have more faith in the NET, so if a team is 37 vs 46 for example will that mean a lot now.

Right, that's kinda what I'm thinking. Will be real interesting to see

 

[jncuse]

Some early games

Friday
Toledo lost to Buffalo-- not sure why 11% of brackets had Toledo. (Limited options perhaps if you don't like 3-9 or 4-9 teams from the B10 or B12

Davidson beat St. Joes - A Q4 win so does nothing for them. Once again a decent mid major, but the fact they are 3rd out shows a lack of depth in the options.

Saturday

Oklahoma Wis at TCU - Nice Q1 road win for Oklahoma... hard to believe they were 3-9 in conference and considered in. But they were and are now 4-9. Could they get in at 6-12 in conference? No bad losses, quality wins but still 14 losses.

Clemson loses closely at Louisville -Not sure if there was a clear preference here as a fan.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Minnesota just pummeled Indiana at home

 

[jncuse]

Minnesota just pummeled Indiana at home

Certainly the better result for us. Continue to weaken those teams right around the line, plus there was only a Q2 win in the game (rather than a Q1)

Florida and Alabama went the other way. This result may swing Indiana and Florida in terms of in out. Florida would be 14-11, 2-9 vs Q1, 5-10 (Q1+Q2). Shows there is still a gap there between us and them.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Minnesota just pummeled Indiana at home

Indiana is terrible. Archie Miller has done nothing to turn them around and he signed a top ten class this year.

 

[NineOneSeven]

6-12 in conference getting in? I am all for p5 schools with double digit losses getting in because of SOS compared to other teams that just rack up wins, but 6-12?

6-12?!?

 

[OrangeDW]

Indiana is terrible. Archie Miller has done nothing to turn them around and he signed a top ten class this year.

I liked him a lot better when he was a character on Boardwalk Empire than I do as a basketball coach.

 

[jncuse]

Last Team In Temple is in quite a battle with South Florida

Game is tied with 10 seconds left (first OT)

 

[jncuse]

Wow, what a terrible call against USF on the drive with a second left.

Temple two shots to win... 90% shooter coming into today, who already missed 4 straight...misses the first... then hits the second. Temple up 1, with 1.5 seconds left.

 

[jncuse]

OMG!!

USF throws the baseball pass on the inbounds with 1.5 seconds left... and a foul called on Temple with 0.8 seconds left.

USF two shots to win.
Misses the first... MISSES THE SECOND.

Temple wins.