Remaining Schedule

[Crusty]

South Florida
Saturday October 10th at South Florida 3:30 PM; CBS Sports Network

Summary
Won-Lost and Sagarin Ratings:
Syracuse 3-1 65 A=70.00
USF 1-3 110 A=59.92

It won't get much better for us than this game. USF is a young team with a new offense (sound familiar?). Head coach Willie Taggart installed a new uptempo spread offense this year. Junior starter Mike White lost his job to sophomore Quentin Flowers (3 star dual threat 6-0 217). White, a pro-style QB who runs like Ryan Nassib, transferred to Western Kentucky.

Rushing
USF will try and beat us with their legs. They have a young stable of backs with 3 sophomores and a junior. In all 4 games, USF has rushed 64% of the time for an average of 210 ypg. Against FBS teams they have averaged 4.4 ypa for 189 yards per game. Not exactly LSU.

Passing
They have had trouble with their passing game. Versus FBS opponents they have averaged 129 yards per game passing with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. They have completed 54.2% of their attempts for an average of 5.3 yards per attempt. They don't (or can't) throw it deep, which means our secondary, undoubtedly our weakest squad, may not be tested.

USF ranks 10th of 12 in the AAC in passing and 5th in total defense for all games. Versus FBS opponents they have averaged 16 point per game on offense and have given up 31 on defense.

While they played Memphis tough, they really just played about their average game scoring 17 points and giving up 24. It looks to me as if Memphis played down to USF.

Completed Games (Sagarin in parenthesis)
Sep. 5 (244) Florida A&M W 51-3
Sep. 12 at (16) Florida State L 14-34
Sep. 19 at (87) Maryland L 17-35
Oct. 2 (51) Memphis L 17-24

NCAA Reported Injuries October 4, 2015
Date Pos Player Injury Status
10/04/15 WR A.J. Legree Foot "?" Saturday vs. Syracuse
10/04/15 WR Alex Mut Undisclosed "?" Saturday vs. Syracuse
10/04/15 LB Josh Black Undisclosed "?" Saturday vs. Syracuse
08/27/15 DB Hassan Childs ACL out for season
08/27/15 WR Stanley Clerveaux ACL out for season

Penalties
USF averages 7.3 penalties per game for 65.8 yards.

Turnovers
USF has an even TO ratio with 5 lost and 5 gained. All interceptions.

3rd Down Conversions
USF has struggled on 3rd down converting only 25% (all games) and 22.73% (FBS).

4th Down Conversions
USF does better on 4th down conversion (not surprising as they are shorter) with 50% (all games and FBS).

Red Zone Conversions
USF is pretty good when they reach the RZ. Against all opponents they have scored TDs 8 out of 13 attempts and 3 of 5 FGs. Not much drop off versus FBS at 4 of 7 TDs and 2 of 3 FGs.

All in all, we should beat this team. A loss would be very bad. That said, with two young teams anything is possible from a low scoring rock fight to a blow out. Shafer should remember to bring enough rocks.

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Nice breakdown.

 

[Acuse]

Great breakdown. Thanks for the heads up. It would be awesome to see something like this every week.

 

[Crusty]

Virginia
Saturday, October 17th at Charlottesville, VA 3:30 PM

Summary
This is a difficult game to evaluate. UVA looks lousy on paper. The Cavs and 0-5 Kansas are the only power-conference teams ranked below 100th nationally in scoring offense and scoring defense. However, UVA has played a much tougher schedule than ours - 33rd vs. 85th nationally.

A defensive performance similar to the USF game won't beat anybody on our remaining schedule. We have to believe that this was one of those inexplicable performances and that we will look more like the first half than the second.

Won-Lost (Sagarin Ratings)
Syracuse 3-1 (78 A=66.42)
UVA 1-4 (80 A=66.02)

Completed Games
UCLA (21 A=83.55 ) L, 34-16
Notre Dame (12 A=87.06) L, 34-27
William & Mary (111 AA=59.810) W, 35-29
Boise State (11 A=87.22) L, 56-14
Pittsburgh (41 A=77.45) L, 26-19

Strength of Schedule
Syracuse 85th -5.2 (13-15)
Virginia 33rd 2.9 (21-6)

Teams that beat UVA are a combined 18-4. Team that UVA beat is 3-2.

Teams that beat Syracuse are a combined 7-3. Teams that Syracuse beat are 6-12.


Offense – Pro Style
The Cavs depth chart shows starters as 6 seniors, 5 juniors and 1 sophomore. Due to injuries (see below) the Hoos have limited depth with 6 Freshmen/RS Freshmen, 2 sophomores as 2's.

UVA has an impressive passing game and is ranked 4th in the ACC. The Hoos complete 59.5% of their passes with an average of 7.6 yards per attempt. While Junior QB Matt Johns (3 star recruit) has had 9 TDs and 8 Ints, their SOS may have a great deal to do with the Ints. This is a potentially dangerous passing attack if the OL provides protection.

With all their OL injuries, it is not surprising to find the weak link to be the UVA ground game. They are dead last in the ACC with only 3.2 yards per attempt and only 3 TDs.

Defense 4-3
The experienced and healthy Cav defense appears to be competent but not above average. They start 2 sophomores, 3 juniors and 6 seniors. Once again, the Cavs have little depth and rely on 6 freshmen/RS freshmen, 1 sophomore and 5 juniors.

We need to be able to run on this defense in order to win this game. An Orange performance similar to last Saturday's will almost certainly result in a loss for us.

NCAA Injury Report for this game
Date Pos Player Injury Status
10/13/2015 LT Michael Mooney Leg doubtful Saturday vs. Syracuse
10/6/2015 WR Andre Levrone Back out for season
10/6/2015 LB Ryan Doull Undisclosed out for season
9/7/2015 C Eric Tretlow Undisclosed out for season
9/7/2015 OT Jake Fieler Undisclosed out for season
8/24/2015 WR Umar Muhammad-Wyatt Knee out indefinitely


Penalties
UVA averages 6.8 penalties per game for 52.4 yards.

Turnovers
UVA has a -8 TO ratio with 10 lost and 2 gained. They have recovered 2 fumbles but have made Zero interceptions. They have lost 2 fumbles and lost 8 interceptions.

3rd Down Conversions
UVA has struggled on 3rd down converting only 39.73% (all games) and 36.07% (FBS).

4th Down Conversions
UVA has attempted 7 4th down conversions and succeeded 3 times for 42.86% for all games and 3 for 6 in FBS contests.

Red Zone Conversions
UVA is very similar to us when they reach the RZ. Against all opponents they have scored 9 out of 10 times with 5 TDs. Not much drop off versus FBS at 8 of 9 with 4 TDs.