Round of Doom

[iommi]

Come on, iommi. Don't go starting threads called Round of Doom.

More importantly, who the hell are the Bugaboos?

Bugaloos...Bugaboos...same difference.

 

[mscanlo]

Speechless in Seattle? How many times were we the greater seed?

since the field expanded to 64, i counted 6 losses in the sweet 16. 2 of them we were the higher seed. 3 of the losses were to the 1 seed. i did this quickly, so might not be accurate

 

[NKR1978]

After today's game I can't but help feel confident going into our next game. Rak really, really showed me something. Wow!!

If he just gets a little stronger and develops his offense he is going to be a an absolute beast next year. He seems to have really great instincts, isn't afraid to battle, hasn't goaltended, and doesn't seem to fall for shot fakes.

 

[br801]

Bugaloos...Bugaboos...same difference.

Awesome. I vaguely remember this show growing up. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bugaloos

Tell you what, this whole board needs to go on a field trip to the Tranquility Forest.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Here's a stat for you - JB is 3-0 in National Semi-Final games...

Yes, I really hope he gets the chance to make it 4-0!

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Speechless in Seattle? How many times were we the greater seed?

Check the 'tude.

Here's JB's Sweet 16 performance:

Since the 1977 tourney when he's been head coach we're 4-11 in the Sweet 16.

The 4 wins he has were all over lower seeded teams: 87 over 6 seed Florida as a 2, 89 over 3 Mizzou as a 2, 96 over 8 UGA as a 4, and 03 over 11 seed Auburn as a 3.

He's never managed to beat a higher seeded team in the Sweet 16, losing in: 94 to 1 Mizzou as a 4, 98 to 1 seed Duke as a 5, 00 to 1 Mich St as a 4, 09 to 2 Oklahoma as a 3. He's 0-4 as a lower seed in the Sweet 16.

He's lost 6 times as the higher seed in the Sweet 16: 79 to 9 Penn as a 4, 80 to 5 Iowa as a 1, 84 to 7 UVA as a 3, 90 to 6 Minnesota as a 2, 04 to 8 Bama as a 5, and 10 to 4 Butler as a 1.

There were no seeds in 77 when he lost to Charlotte.

So I admitted I made a memory recall mistake, he wasn't 4-12, he was 4-11. You can do your own analysis with the above results.

 

[KingOtis]

Check the 'tude.

Here's JB's Sweet 16 performance:

Since the 1977 tourney when he's been head coach we're 4-11 in the Sweet 16.

The 4 wins he has were all over lower seeded teams: 87 over 6 seed Florida as a 2, 89 over 3 Mizzou as a 2, 96 over 8 UGA as a 4, and 03 over 11 seed Auburn as a 3.

He's never managed to beat a higher seeded team in the Sweet 16, losing in: 94 to 1 Mizzou as a 4, 98 to 1 seed Duke as a 5, 00 to 1 Mich St as a 4, 09 to 2 Oklahoma as a 3. He's 0-4 as a lower seed in the Sweet 16.

He's lost 6 times as the higher seed in the Sweet 16: 79 to 9 Penn as a 4, 80 to 5 Iowa as a 1, 84 to 7 UVA as a 3, 90 to 6 Minnesota as a 2, 04 to 8 Bama as a 5, and 10 to 4 Butler as a 1.

There were no seeds in 77 when he lost to Charlotte.

So I admitted I made a memory recall mistake, he wasn't 4-12, he was 4-11. You can do your own analysis with the above results.

Or what?

So most of those losses to lesser seeds came before most of his current players were born. I think many would agree that he's had two careers. There's the first half of his career, when he was Dale Brown's long-lost twin. And then there's the second half of his career, which I call the Post-Juli Era, but others might call the Post-Probation Era or the Exclusively-Zone Era.

It's pretty obvious that his PASE during the Post-Juli Era has been outstanding. In my opinion, losing to Alabama was the only bad loss. But depending on your interpretation of PASE, you could argue that he wasn't supposed to get beyond the Sweet 16 as a #5 seed (in fact, he wasn't supposed to get beyond the second round). You could extend that argument to include the win over Georgia in '96 because he wasn't supposed to reach the Elite 8 (much less the NC game). As JB said in regards to Alabama's win over Stanford, "That means they're a better team." I'm sure he felt the same way about Georgia after they beat Stanford. And I just realized we can include the win over Auburn as well.

But I'll keep it simple. He lost two games he shouldn't have: Alabama and Butler. He gets a pass for the Butler game because we were not a true #1 seed without Onuaku. There's no excuse for the Alabama game, though, especially considering the way the team played. I was pretty disgusted after that one. Zero effort.

It doesn't bother me that he doesn't have a win over a greater seed in the Sweet 16. He's proven that he's capable of scoring upset victories in the Elite 8 and beyond. Just taking a #4 or a #3 seed to the Elite 8 or Final Four is impressive, regardless of who you beat to get there. Coach K may have 11 Final Fours under his belt, but 10 of those trips were as a #1 or #2 seed (the other was as a #3). When you consider talent and seeding, Coach K is supposed to get to the Final Four just about every year. JB is supposed to get to the Sweet 16.

Unfortunately, the Fab Melo situation does call for another asterisk. With him, a win over Wisconsin would be expected. Without him, it will be a challenge.

 

[cap2nine]

Check the 'tude.

Here's JB's Sweet 16 performance:

Since the 1977 tourney when he's been head coach we're 4-11 in the Sweet 16.

The 4 wins he has were all over lower seeded teams: 87 over 6 seed Florida as a 2, 89 over 3 Mizzou as a 2, 96 over 8 UGA as a 4, and 03 over 11 seed Auburn as a 3.

He's never managed to beat a higher seeded team in the Sweet 16, losing in: 94 to 1 Mizzou as a 4, 98 to 1 seed Duke as a 5, 00 to 1 Mich St as a 4, 09 to 2 Oklahoma as a 3. He's 0-4 as a lower seed in the Sweet 16.

He's lost 6 times as the higher seed in the Sweet 16: 79 to 9 Penn as a 4, 80 to 5 Iowa as a 1, 84 to 7 UVA as a 3, 90 to 6 Minnesota as a 2, 04 to 8 Bama as a 5, and 10 to 4 Butler as a 1.

There were no seeds in 77 when he lost to Charlotte.

So I admitted I made a memory recall mistake, he wasn't 4-12, he was 4-11. You can do your own analysis with the above results.

If these games listed are accurate... JB is 4 of 10 as the higher seed, in Sweet 16 games. I have not looked to see what the average is for all higher seeds winning their Sweet 16 games but I’m quite certain that it’s better than 40%. Although this is not the side of the statistic we want to be on, in no way does this spell “doom” for this year’s team. It’s all about the matchup and if we play the way we did against K State, specifically in the second half, I really like our chances against Wisconsin!

 

[KingOtis]

If these games listed are accurate... JB is 4 of 10 as the higher seed, in Sweet 16 games. I have not looked to see what the average is for all higher seeds winning their Sweet 16 games but I’m quite certain that it’s better than 40%. Although this is not the side of the statistic we want to be on, in no way does this spell “doom” for this year’s team. It’s all about the matchup and if we play the way we did against K State, specifically in the second half, I really like our chances against Wisconsin!

With a healthy Onuaku, he would be 5-5 as the greater seed in the Sweet 16. 3-1 in the Post-Juli Era.

 

[longtimefan]

We could be, I didn't go back and look, just tried to pull it from memory. In reality, is there any difference between 4-11 and 4-12? Not really.

*You* used the term "statistics". Last I looked, 11 and 12 were not the same. Just sayin'.

 

[DNABB5]

Come on, iommi. Don't go starting threads called Round of Doom.

Iommi? Sabbath? Hand of Doom?

I got the connection.

I think the guy is missing some fingertips too.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

*You* used the term "statistics". Last I looked, 11 and 12 were not the same. Just sayin'.

4 out of 15 = 26.7%
4 out of 16 = 25%

I corrected the mistake. There really isn't a huge difference between the two numbers. Does the difference of 1.67% really change your opinion of his performance in the Sweet 16?

 

[KingOtis]

4 out of 15 = 26.7%
4 out of 16 = 25%

I corrected the mistake. There really isn't a huge difference between the two numbers. Does the difference of 1.67% really change your opinion of his performance in the Sweet 16?

"People lie when they misuse statistics."

 

[longtimefan]

4 out of 15 = 26.7%
4 out of 16 = 25%

I corrected the mistake. There really isn't a huge difference between the two numbers. Does the difference of 1.67% really change your opinion of his performance in the Sweet 16?

Of course, there's little difference. But you initiated the statistical study. Doing so, you ought to have your ducks in a row.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

"People lie when they misuse statistics."

Yes.

 

[KingOtis]

I really loved your "analysis" of JB's performance in the Sweet 16 over his career. I particularly liked your in depth analysis of pre vs post Juli time periods. That is obviously a key fact.

I also like your analysis that we really have never lost a game in the Sweet 16 that we were "supposed" to win, because the teams that we lost to were all better than they were seeded because they had just knocked off a higher seeded team, or we had an injury, or there were other issues that we just don't understand.

It was really quite powerful, all backed up by a lot of statistical evidence to support your analysis......oh wait a second.

Now I know why you waited this long to respond. Clearly you didn't understand a thing I said.

 

[KingOtis]

I analyzed it 3 or 4 months ago, just tried to pull it from memory. I realize my mistake now and will proceed to the nearest 10+ story building and throw myself off of it.

I was really, really far off; 1.67%...strike me down with all of God's power!

You don't live up to your own standards and you lack accountability. This will take you far.

 

[longtimefan]

I analyzed it 3 or 4 months ago, just tried to pull it from memory. I realize my mistake now and will proceed to the nearest 10+ story building and throw myself off of it.

I was really, really far off; 1.67%...strike me down with all of God's power!

That's all right. Six stories will be sufficient.

 

[KingOtis]

You're right. It's very difficult to understand your posts and reasoning.

For you.

 

[KingOtis]

I don't live inside your mind.

Your reading comprehension level is not my problem.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Also, fwiw, I'm going to take the high road and stop responding to this thread because it's not serving much purpose anymore.