RPI...SOS

[CuseBBall]

I will preface this post by saying that we pass the "eye test" and even Kenpom has Syracuse ranked 2nd... Which is probably the most important statistical evaluation of a team.

But our RPI and SOS schedule leave something to be desired for a 18-0 team, whose main goal should be to get the 1 seed in the East.

Our RPI is only 8th (or 4th depending on which site you prefer) and that is really driven by SOS which is currently 66th (or 101 depending one which site you prefer)
And according to ESPN's BPI (ranked 4th in the BPI overall) our SOS is 82.

With all the talk about how this might be the best schedule we have ever played, one might think our SOS would be much higher.. But if you dig deeper into those numbers there is on reason for that. The bad teams on our schedule were really really really bad.
We have played 6 teams with RPIs 200 worse, and that is what is really killing our numbers. 3 of which are 300 or worse
If you compare that to teams that the RPI loves
Kansas 0 games against 200 or less
Wisky 2 games 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
Zona 1 game vs 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
UMass (ranked 5th in RPI) 1 game vs 200 or less (that team was 208)

And you can see where our terrible RPI/SOS is coming from, but of course it will be a moot point if we continue to win.
I know we still have a lot of good games on our schedule which should help our numbers a bit (so does everyone) but these bad teams we have played will continue to kill our numbers.
Again we pass the eye test, but if we have a hiccup or 4 down the road these numbers might come back to bite us, and force us to make a tourney run in some bracket that doesn't run through MSG.

 

[jordoo]

How many top 100 and top 50 wins do we have? This is more important for seeding when comparing teams than overall RPI. Over all is more of a bubble thing IMO. Kansas has 4 losses against that awesome schedule so that's 4 top 50 wins they didn't get for example.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

We win the ACC with no more than 4 losses and we will be the #1 seed in the East regardless of our RPI. Take it to the bank.

 

[orange79]

Real time, our RPI is 5 with a SOS of 41. It's strange to be saying this, but the ACC has hurt our RPI. As has playing teams like Colgate, Cornell, Bingo, and High Pt. No doubt. But based on the schedule we have played, we are in good shape. 6 Top 50 wins, 10 Top 100. Kansas, #1 in RPI, has 12 Top 100 wins. Not that much of a difference, and they have the #1 SOS.

I wouldn't worry. These things work out over the course of the season.

 

[iommi]

I will preface this post by saying that we pass the "eye test" and even Kenpom has Syracuse ranked 2nd... Which is probably the most important statistical evaluation of a team.

But our RPI and SOS schedule leave something to be desired for a 18-0 team, whose main goal should be to get the 1 seed in the East.

Our RPI is only 8th (or 4th depending on which site you prefer) and that is really driven by SOS which is currently 66th (or 101 depending one which site you prefer)
And according to ESPN's BPI (ranked 4th in the BPI overall) our SOS is 82.

With all the talk about how this might be the best schedule we have ever played, one might think our SOS would be much higher.. But if you dig deeper into those numbers there is on reason for that. The bad teams on our schedule were really really really bad.
We have played 6 teams with RPIs 200 worse, and that is what is really killing our numbers. 3 of which are 300 or worse
If you compare that to teams that the RPI loves
Kansas 0 games against 200 or less
Wisky 2 games 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
Zona 1 game vs 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
UMass (ranked 5th in RPI) 1 game vs 200 or less (that team was 208)

And you can see where our terrible RPI/SOS is coming from, but of course it will be a moot point if we continue to win.
I know we still have a lot of good games on our schedule which should help our numbers a bit (so does everyone) but these bad teams we have played will continue to kill our numbers.
Again we pass the eye test, but if we have a hiccup or 4 down the road these numbers might come back to bite us, and force us to make a tourney run in some bracket that doesn't run through MSG.

Good, informative post. Some posters will say you're a negative Nancy but your post makes a lot of sense. Who know Cornell would be one of the worst teams in the nation. They also were beating us for a while.

 

[CuseBBall]

How many top 100 and top 50 wins do we have? This is more important for seeding when comparing teams than overall RPI. Over all is more of a bubble thing IMO. Kansas has 4 losses against that awesome schedule so that's 4 top 50 wins they didn't get for example.

Yes I would agree with that.
KU is 7-4 vs top 50 teams with 4 games on the road, 3 on neutral sites, and 4 at home. Their schedule has been awesome.
After them we have the most wins in the county vs top 50 teams... 6-0, 3 at home 3 at neutral sites.

 

[CuseBBall]

Good, informative post. Some posters will say you're a negative Nancy but your post makes a lot of sense. Who know Cornell would be one of the worst teams in the nation. They also were beating us for a while.

Thank you. I wasn't trying to be negative, just trying to show where our numbers are coming from when "haters" start to try and make the argument against us because of our terrible SOS... Everyone plays cupcakes, but our cupcakes were just really bad.

 

[upperdeck]

the RPI/SOS is broken. of the top 30 teams how many have losses to teams below 100-150? does it really matter if SU plays team 150 or team 300 they should win more than 99.9% of the time. so the formula shouldnt differentiate it so much like it does. if one team plays 150-159 and one team plays 300-309 the reality is they both played the same cupcake schedule but the RPI/SOS will say one team played a much tougher schedule..

hockey PWR throws out the games against teams that below .500 records, the RPI should set a baseline and once you play team below a certain number all the rest below that count the same..

 

[jordoo]

the RPI/SOS is broken. of the top 30 teams how many have losses to teams below 100-150? does it really matter if SU plays team 150 or team 300 they should win more than 99.9% of the time. so the formula shouldnt differentiate it so much like it does. if one team plays 150-159 and one team plays 300-309 the reality is they both played the same cupcake schedule but the RPI/SOS will say one team played a much tougher schedule..

hockey PWR throws out the games against teams that below .500 records, the RPI should set a baseline and once you play team below a certain number all the rest below that count the same..

I think that makes sense and it would help the bubble teams be distinguished more by the stronger teams that were played In their schedule as well.

 

[Whitey23]

I will preface this post by saying that we pass the "eye test" and even Kenpom has Syracuse ranked 2nd... Which is probably the most important statistical evaluation of a team.

But our RPI and SOS schedule leave something to be desired for a 18-0 team, whose main goal should be to get the 1 seed in the East.

Our RPI is only 8th (or 4th depending on which site you prefer) and that is really driven by SOS which is currently 66th (or 101 depending one which site you prefer)
And according to ESPN's BPI (ranked 4th in the BPI overall) our SOS is 82.

With all the talk about how this might be the best schedule we have ever played, one might think our SOS would be much higher.. But if you dig deeper into those numbers there is on reason for that. The bad teams on our schedule were really really really bad.
We have played 6 teams with RPIs 200 worse, and that is what is really killing our numbers. 3 of which are 300 or worse
If you compare that to teams that the RPI loves
Kansas 0 games against 200 or less
Wisky 2 games 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
Zona 1 game vs 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
UMass (ranked 5th in RPI) 1 game vs 200 or less (that team was 208)

And you can see where our terrible RPI/SOS is coming from, but of course it will be a moot point if we continue to win.
I know we still have a lot of good games on our schedule which should help our numbers a bit (so does everyone) but these bad teams we have played will continue to kill our numbers.
Again we pass the eye test, but if we have a hiccup or 4 down the road these numbers might come back to bite us, and force us to make a tourney run in some bracket that doesn't run through MSG.

Nova hopped Cuse overnight in KenPom's rankings.

 

[CiceroCuse]

I will preface this post by saying that we pass the "eye test" and even Kenpom has Syracuse ranked 2nd... Which is probably the most important statistical evaluation of a team.

But our RPI and SOS schedule leave something to be desired for a 18-0 team, whose main goal should be to get the 1 seed in the East.

Our RPI is only 8th (or 4th depending on which site you prefer) and that is really driven by SOS which is currently 66th (or 101 depending one which site you prefer)
And according to ESPN's BPI (ranked 4th in the BPI overall) our SOS is 82.

With all the talk about how this might be the best schedule we have ever played, one might think our SOS would be much higher.. But if you dig deeper into those numbers there is on reason for that. The bad teams on our schedule were really really really bad.
We have played 6 teams with RPIs 200 worse, and that is what is really killing our numbers. 3 of which are 300 or worse
If you compare that to teams that the RPI loves
Kansas 0 games against 200 or less
Wisky 2 games 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
Zona 1 game vs 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
UMass (ranked 5th in RPI) 1 game vs 200 or less (that team was 208)

And you can see where our terrible RPI/SOS is coming from, but of course it will be a moot point if we continue to win.
I know we still have a lot of good games on our schedule which should help our numbers a bit (so does everyone) but these bad teams we have played will continue to kill our numbers.
Again we pass the eye test, but if we have a hiccup or 4 down the road these numbers might come back to bite us, and force us to make a tourney run in some bracket that doesn't run through MSG.

Most of those 200+ RPI teams are local teams that we play as a courtesy to their athletic budgets. In the end i dont think it matters much as long as we have a good record against the Top 25, 50 and 100.

 

[Garbs]

when are people going to realize that we will be at MSG as long as we are a top 4 seed, just like last year

 

[jordoo]

Nova hopped Cuse overnight in KenPom's rankings.

When we crushed them head to head. Its just funny but they are beating teams by bigger margins and KenPom loves that.

 

[orange79]

When we crushed them head to head. Its just funny but they are beating teams by bigger margins and KenPom loves that.

Yeah, there are arguments to be made both for taking margin of victory into account and for omitting it. I'm not sure what the right answer is, or if there even is a right answer. Maybe lowering the the importance in the formula? I don't see how beating #321 by 35 differs from beating them by 18, especially if you sit your starters early and let the bench play for the last 6 minutes. I'm not familiar with the KenPom ratings though - does he (can he) take information like that into account?

 

[dasher]

I will preface this post by saying that we pass the "eye test" and even Kenpom has Syracuse ranked 2nd... Which is probably the most important statistical evaluation of a team.

But our RPI and SOS schedule leave something to be desired for a 18-0 team, whose main goal should be to get the 1 seed in the East.

Our RPI is only 8th (or 4th depending on which site you prefer) and that is really driven by SOS which is currently 66th (or 101 depending one which site you prefer)
And according to ESPN's BPI (ranked 4th in the BPI overall) our SOS is 82.

With all the talk about how this might be the best schedule we have ever played, one might think our SOS would be much higher.. But if you dig deeper into those numbers there is on reason for that. The bad teams on our schedule were really really really bad.
We have played 6 teams with RPIs 200 worse, and that is what is really killing our numbers. 3 of which are 300 or worse
If you compare that to teams that the RPI loves
Kansas 0 games against 200 or less
Wisky 2 games 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
Zona 1 game vs 200 or less 0 vs 300 or less
UMass (ranked 5th in RPI) 1 game vs 200 or less (that team was 208)

And you can see where our terrible RPI/SOS is coming from, but of course it will be a moot point if we continue to win.
I know we still have a lot of good games on our schedule which should help our numbers a bit (so does everyone) but these bad teams we have played will continue to kill our numbers.
Again we pass the eye test, but if we have a hiccup or 4 down the road these numbers might come back to bite us, and force us to make a tourney run in some bracket that doesn't run through MSG.

Name a good win UMass has had. VCU? I guess.

 

[rrlbees]

the RPI/SOS is broken. of the top 30 teams how many have losses to teams below 100-150? does it really matter if SU plays team 150 or team 300 they should win more than 99.9% of the time. so the formula shouldnt differentiate it so much like it does. if one team plays 150-159 and one team plays 300-309 the reality is they both played the same cupcake schedule but the RPI/SOS will say one team played a much tougher schedule.. hockey PWR throws out the games against teams that below .500 records, the RPI should set a baseline and once you play team below a certain number all the rest below that count the same..

RPI doesn't care if a team you beat or lose to is 150 or 300.

 

[LennX6]

Thank you. I wasn't trying to be negative, just trying to show where our numbers are coming from when "haters" start to try and make the argument against us because of our terrible SOS... Everyone plays cupcakes, but our cupcakes were just really bad.

In the past our , what others call "cupcakes" , ended up in the Tournament many many times.

 

[LennX6]

Nova hopped Cuse overnight in KenPom's rankings.

There has to be a way in those rating services to preclude a team from jumping a team that has beaten it,. or at least have a "factor" in there to make it honest if it does happen.
Also , if whe "whupped" 'Nova and now they are pounding others, that should somehow make it to our column.

 

[rrlbees]

Thank you. I wasn't trying to be negative, just trying to show where our numbers are coming from when "haters" start to try and make the argument against us because of our terrible SOS... Everyone plays cupcakes, but our cupcakes were just really bad.

Keep one thing in mind, while I expect it to change as we get deeper into the ACC schedule, our OOC SOS is better than our conference SOS right now. 49th vs. 111th. The ACC is hurting us.

 

[JohnCuse44]

So you are saying Jimmy B should find some better cupcakes? I think it would be great if we could also have fewer cupcakes. We have deals with Nova and St. John's to play each year right? I say add Georgetown to that and look to alternate another former big east team like WVU or Marquette.

And every once in a while can we get an early season matchup with a Kansas or Kentucky. Why don't we ever play teams like that? Is it that we don't want to play them or they don't want to play us?

You could make all these changes and still have room for good 3-4 cupcakes that JB likes to get him team ready to play.

 

[Rocco]

Keep one thing in mind, while I expect it to change as we get deeper into the ACC schedule, our OOC SOS is better than our conference SOS right now. 49th vs. 111th. The ACC is hurting us.

Exactly. The ACC is turning into a joke. If Duke can continue to smash people like they did yesterday to NC State, that will help. Top to bottom though, the ACC ain't no Big East.

 

[SBU72]

When we crushed them head to head. Its just funny but they are beating teams by bigger margins and KenPom loves that.

I was so rooting for Baylor to comeback and win. Kept thinking how much that would help SU.

 

[realorange]

We are looking at the ACC as it is this year. Historically, we have an aberration that is likely to heal itself in the next few years.
As someone said earlier in this thread, if we keep on winning the RPI and SOS mean nothing in us getting a #1 seed.

 

[LennX6]

That would be so Syracuse though if we kept winning and NOT get a #1 (I am being facetious ) but I remember 81' after winning the BET and on a serious roll. We got hosed because the BE wasn't an AQ yet. In hindsight what a neanderthal decision. How ironic it would be it the ACC weakness would somehow hurt us in our first year there.

 

[Whitey23]

I was so rooting for Baylor to comeback and win. Kept thinking how much that would help SU.

Baylor has Kansas next i believe. Let's hope they show up.