SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ve already posted my annual “NCAA Seed Stats” report, which show the average results of NCAA tournament since the field went to 64 teams in 1985: there are 8 first round upsets, on average, with a 3 seed, a 4, a 5, a 6, two 7’s and two 8’s going down. The 12th seed and one of the 10 seeds and the 11 and 12th seed will go to the Sweet 16. The Final Four, on average, consists of two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 seed. Does that mean that that is what will happen this year? Of course not. Does that tell what 14th seed, what 13th seed, 12th seed, 11th seed and what two 10th and 9th seed will win? No, it doesn’t. But if you are interested in putting a sheet together as fast as you can to make sure you get it in on time, (the real challenge, it seems to me) it gives you a template to work with. The time you spend on your predictions reaches the law of diminishing returns very quickly. I actually think it gets worse the longer you work on it.
Belmont is a popular choice as a 14 seed. That bothers me: if you go with the crowd, how do you get ahead of the crowd? But I like Baylor, Marquette and Florida State to make NCAA runs more than I like Georgetown so I went with the Bruins over the Hoyas.
Picking which 13 seed will win was harder. The closest match seemed to be Louisville and Davidson but Rick Pitino has amped up the defense and I really don’t think they are going down in the first round for the second year in a row. But I didn’t like any of the others for upsets. I finally went with Indiana, which lost Verdell Jones, a key player, to injury in the Big Ten tournament, losing to New Mexico State.
Everybody loved VCU and Shaka Smart. After all, Brad Stevens went to two straight Finals Fours, why not Shaka. But I like the fact that Wichita State is a high scoring, hot shooting team with a low turnover rate. “The Rams…shoot only 41% They need easy baskets generated by their defense to be at their best.” I like South Florida to beat California but I’m not sure about Temple, who is 12-2 since they got their 6-11 center Michael Eric back. I’ve liked Long Beach State since they beat Pitt early in the season and fell for their story of a bunch of seniors who won 6 games and a freshman and rose to 25 as seniors. I’ve got them beating New Mexico.
I really liked what I saw of NC State in the ACC tournament. I think they beat UNC if CJ Leslie doesn’t foul out with 3 fouls in a minute and a half and Gottfried not keeping track of it. The Wolfpack were actually the first of the troika, (with UNC and Duke) to become a major power, dominating the first decade after the war. The Reynolds Coliseum was the Carrier Dome of it’s day. The led college basketball in attendance for years. Even after UNC and Duke improved their programs to compete with them. The Pack won NCAA titles in 1974 and 1983. At that point they had as many as UNC and Duke had won any yet. I think Mark Gottfried is bringing them back and they will one the teams SU will be competing with for ACC titles in the years to come. They are my 11 seed winner.
At the 10 spot, I think it may finally be Robbie Hummel’s time to get an NCAA win for Purdue. I think Notre Dame is better than Xavier and Florida better than Virginia. I like Bob Huggins strong defensive team vs. Gonzaga for the second 10 seed to win.
Everybody is scared of Frank Martin and they think it’s a given that Kansas State will beat Southern Mississippi. But the Golden Eagles have an RPI of 21, the Wildcats 49. You’ve got to look at the teams, not just the coaches. I also like Connecticut over Iowa State.
So now I’ve got my eight first round upsets. Historically, they will produce three Sweet 16 teams, one 10 and the 11 and the 12.
I think Kansas is better than Purdue and Ohio State better than West Virginia. But I’m not sold on Ohio State, which has underperformed. I think Kansas is better. I also would favor West Virginia over Purdue. So I’m picking Bob Huggins to pull over a big upset over the Buckeyes and get to the Sweet 16.
NC State will take care of Belmont. I don’t know about Long Beach State over Louisville but I’ll stick with the plan.
Now for the Final Four. I was going to go with Kentucky-Syracuse Final but the loss of Fab Melo makes that more of a dream than a prediction. It would have given me the two #1 seeds I need. Instead I’ll go with Florida State to beat West Virginia after Huggie takes care of the Buckeyes and then go on to the Final Four. Like Indiana, Michigan State lost a valuable player to injury, Brandon Dawson. I like Missouri a lot, (should be an exciting game with Florida- basketball like it oughta be!), and they will be the #2 seed. That makes North Carolina the other #1 seed to make it to the Final Four.
But I began thinking about all the mid-majors that have made it to last weekend in recent years: George Mason, an 11 seed in 2006, Butler, a 5 seed in 2010, The Bulldogs again as an 8 seed last year and VCU, another 11 seed. The difference between the high majors and the mid majors has narrowed considerably in recent year and it seems almost going against the norm now not to pick a low seed to make it there. I’m not going to pick a mid major, though, (sorry Murray State). I think NC State will gain revenge for what happened vs. UNC in the ACC tournament and be this year’s Final Four Cinderella.
So now I just have to fill in the rest of it. I’ll take Wichita State over New Mexico State, Baylor over UNLV and Duke and maybe they throw a scare into Wildcats in the regional final. Missouri- Marquette would be a good game but I think the Tigers will beat the Spartans and got to the Final Four. Temple-Michigan will be a great game. The Wolverines are from the tougher conference so I’ll go with them.
I think the Orange still have enough to get by UNC Ashville and Southern Mississippi and the Wisconsin-Vanderbilt winner. I’ll take the Badgers over the Commodores. (Defense, defense, defense!!!). But the Seminoles, another future major ACC rival, prevent our own Cinderella run to the Final Four.
I’ll take Florida State over NC State. I think they are a better defensive team. Missouri will give Kentucky all they can ask for but I think the Cats will have the answers and then beat the Noles for the title.
So now I’m done. My NCAA sheet is filled out for another year. How accurate is it? Who knows? It might be a paper airplane in a couple of days. But I’ve got my life back.
Fly the Friendly Skies!
Belmont is a popular choice as a 14 seed. That bothers me: if you go with the crowd, how do you get ahead of the crowd? But I like Baylor, Marquette and Florida State to make NCAA runs more than I like Georgetown so I went with the Bruins over the Hoyas.
Picking which 13 seed will win was harder. The closest match seemed to be Louisville and Davidson but Rick Pitino has amped up the defense and I really don’t think they are going down in the first round for the second year in a row. But I didn’t like any of the others for upsets. I finally went with Indiana, which lost Verdell Jones, a key player, to injury in the Big Ten tournament, losing to New Mexico State.
Everybody loved VCU and Shaka Smart. After all, Brad Stevens went to two straight Finals Fours, why not Shaka. But I like the fact that Wichita State is a high scoring, hot shooting team with a low turnover rate. “The Rams…shoot only 41% They need easy baskets generated by their defense to be at their best.” I like South Florida to beat California but I’m not sure about Temple, who is 12-2 since they got their 6-11 center Michael Eric back. I’ve liked Long Beach State since they beat Pitt early in the season and fell for their story of a bunch of seniors who won 6 games and a freshman and rose to 25 as seniors. I’ve got them beating New Mexico.
I really liked what I saw of NC State in the ACC tournament. I think they beat UNC if CJ Leslie doesn’t foul out with 3 fouls in a minute and a half and Gottfried not keeping track of it. The Wolfpack were actually the first of the troika, (with UNC and Duke) to become a major power, dominating the first decade after the war. The Reynolds Coliseum was the Carrier Dome of it’s day. The led college basketball in attendance for years. Even after UNC and Duke improved their programs to compete with them. The Pack won NCAA titles in 1974 and 1983. At that point they had as many as UNC and Duke had won any yet. I think Mark Gottfried is bringing them back and they will one the teams SU will be competing with for ACC titles in the years to come. They are my 11 seed winner.
At the 10 spot, I think it may finally be Robbie Hummel’s time to get an NCAA win for Purdue. I think Notre Dame is better than Xavier and Florida better than Virginia. I like Bob Huggins strong defensive team vs. Gonzaga for the second 10 seed to win.
Everybody is scared of Frank Martin and they think it’s a given that Kansas State will beat Southern Mississippi. But the Golden Eagles have an RPI of 21, the Wildcats 49. You’ve got to look at the teams, not just the coaches. I also like Connecticut over Iowa State.
So now I’ve got my eight first round upsets. Historically, they will produce three Sweet 16 teams, one 10 and the 11 and the 12.
I think Kansas is better than Purdue and Ohio State better than West Virginia. But I’m not sold on Ohio State, which has underperformed. I think Kansas is better. I also would favor West Virginia over Purdue. So I’m picking Bob Huggins to pull over a big upset over the Buckeyes and get to the Sweet 16.
NC State will take care of Belmont. I don’t know about Long Beach State over Louisville but I’ll stick with the plan.
Now for the Final Four. I was going to go with Kentucky-Syracuse Final but the loss of Fab Melo makes that more of a dream than a prediction. It would have given me the two #1 seeds I need. Instead I’ll go with Florida State to beat West Virginia after Huggie takes care of the Buckeyes and then go on to the Final Four. Like Indiana, Michigan State lost a valuable player to injury, Brandon Dawson. I like Missouri a lot, (should be an exciting game with Florida- basketball like it oughta be!), and they will be the #2 seed. That makes North Carolina the other #1 seed to make it to the Final Four.
But I began thinking about all the mid-majors that have made it to last weekend in recent years: George Mason, an 11 seed in 2006, Butler, a 5 seed in 2010, The Bulldogs again as an 8 seed last year and VCU, another 11 seed. The difference between the high majors and the mid majors has narrowed considerably in recent year and it seems almost going against the norm now not to pick a low seed to make it there. I’m not going to pick a mid major, though, (sorry Murray State). I think NC State will gain revenge for what happened vs. UNC in the ACC tournament and be this year’s Final Four Cinderella.
So now I just have to fill in the rest of it. I’ll take Wichita State over New Mexico State, Baylor over UNLV and Duke and maybe they throw a scare into Wildcats in the regional final. Missouri- Marquette would be a good game but I think the Tigers will beat the Spartans and got to the Final Four. Temple-Michigan will be a great game. The Wolverines are from the tougher conference so I’ll go with them.
I think the Orange still have enough to get by UNC Ashville and Southern Mississippi and the Wisconsin-Vanderbilt winner. I’ll take the Badgers over the Commodores. (Defense, defense, defense!!!). But the Seminoles, another future major ACC rival, prevent our own Cinderella run to the Final Four.
I’ll take Florida State over NC State. I think they are a better defensive team. Missouri will give Kentucky all they can ask for but I think the Cats will have the answers and then beat the Noles for the title.
So now I’m done. My NCAA sheet is filled out for another year. How accurate is it? Who knows? It might be a paper airplane in a couple of days. But I’ve got my life back.
Fly the Friendly Skies!
