Season Picks

[DoctahLexus]

Cover D is less important if you always have the ball. A great face off unit will get you the ball 75-plus percent of the time.

Agreed, but the actual fogo is still by far the most important person in that group.

 

[ClvrUsrnm]

Agreed, but the actual fogo is still by far the most important person in that group.

He is indeed, but when Phaup and Varello are throwing dumb passes after they win the clamp, as they often do, the wings need to be able to pick up the garbage.

 

[Zack80]

That is true about Duke, they have a lot of guys. O'Neill might not start on attack immediately, but he's going to play a lot. #1 freshman, people are calling him the best prospect of the decade...if that's anywhere close to true, he will find his way to the field early and often.

For Syracuse, Griffin Cook is really the only obstacle to Hiltz starting on attack with Rehfuss and Scanlan. I don't think they'll hold him back very long.

You may be right, but conclusions like these are often fraught with errors. I have made such mistakes in the past, which makes me cautious. This year the evaluation of freshmen is even more clouded by their not having played their senior years in high school.

(For example, Patrick Spencer was #26 in the 2014 IL rising senior rankings and then #6 in the 2015 IL Power freshmen ranking.)

Last year, the #1 freshman Shellenberger red-shirted. Certainly the #3 ranked freshman Dyson Williams did well, but so did the #23 ranked freshman Josh Zawada. ( Of course, Danny Maltz, who wasn't even top 100, started at attack for the Terps.)

I don't see why I should receive such contumely, for picking a 5-star recruit, a UA AA selection, an MIAA US HS AA as a junior, a player who has played midfield for a midfield slot, and had good size and weight (6'0", 185).

I do think it is likely that Tillman will go with experience early in the season, but I think a player like Koras could bubble up as the season goes on. I have watched Koras' junior season highlights:
along with several full MIAA games with him in them on youtube.

 

[ivorytower]

Zack80, not involved in ur discussion with laxobserver but thanks for introducing me to a new word.

Ill now tell my wife to stop being contumely towards me on my time posting here and enjoy her perplexed look lol

 

[ClvrUsrnm]

Nouns that end in “ly” shouldn’t be allowed. Sounds like a terrible, terrible adverb.

 

[sholokov2]

Besides insane skills , O'Neill is physically mature.
Lax version of rookie LBJ who came into nba stronger than most vets and immediately completed at high level.

He reminds me in hs of John Grant in college. Defenders just bounce off him. Physically imposing, he seems from videos like he was ready to play in college last year.

 

[Zack80]

Reading this lax magazine article on UNC:

2021 NCAA Lacrosse Preview: No. 6 North Carolina (Men)

The deep Tar Heels roster reminds Joe Breschi of the 1991 national championship team.

www.uslaxmagazine.com

We see that:
"... the starting midfield of Justin Anderson, Tanner Cook and William Perry would all return for fifth seasons in Chapel Hill.
But the Tar Heels also added Princeton transfer Connor McCarthy and have had a chance to develop some younger players this fall."

“We’re six attackmen deep, which is pretty powerful in and of itself, and two of those guys could potentially play midfield in Lance Tillman and Alex Trippi,” Breschi said. “But with Chris Gray, Solomon, Kelly and Cameron, all those guys back …

It sounds like it could be hard for Cole Herbert to make even the 2nd midfield, yet Ryan above picks him as FOY. Then you have the two Hopkins' guys picking Brendan Grimes.

As for picking Georgetown for the final 4. Georgetown is a good team and might make it, but this season is different than most in the past. There are 5 teams that look particularly strong: Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, UVa, and UNC - and look likely to make the final four. Then there are a number of teams that appear to be on about the same level as Georgetown: Denver, PSU, OSU, ND, and Loyola. Then there is the chance of some real darkhorse team rising up. I think one might reasonable assess Georgetown's chances of making the final four being at most 20%.
That 4 of 5 College Crosse posters pick Georgetown tends to indicate that they are a group of guys gossiping among themselves and deluding themselves as to Georgetown.

Then their is the College Crosse poster, Jake, who picks Dan Chemotti as coach of the year. Chemotti is a good coach. This year it is going to be particularly hard for Richmond to upset a top team, like an ACC team. Further, it is going to be hard to make a run in the NCAA tmt. While winning the Southern Conference might get him SoCon Coach of the Year, it seems unlikely that he will be NCAA coach of the year.

IL's 2020 list:

Inside Lacrosse - Rankinglist

Recruiting content, player profiles, college commitments, top players, evaluations, game play highlights, high school schedules and scores, and more in the Inside Lacrosse Recruiting Database (RDB). Inside Lacrosse is the most trusted and largest source of lacrosse coverage, score and stats...

www.insidelacrosse.com

 

[laxobserver]

As for picking Georgetown for the final 4. Georgetown is a good team and might make it, but this season is different than most in the past. There are 5 teams that look particularly strong: Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, UVa, and UNC - and look likely to make the final four. Then there are a number of teams that appear to be on about the same level as Georgetown: Denver, PSU, OSU, ND, and Loyola.

What puts Syracuse in a tier above Georgetown?

Georgetown is better defensively, just as strong in the cage, and their faceoff guy had a better % than the Phaup/Varello combo last year.

Syracuse might have a deeper offense, but it's pretty close there too. They averaged 0.1 more goals per game. Georgetown's offense was more efficient on a per possession basis.

I am not picking Georgetown to make the Final Four but the evidence that Syracuse (or UNC or UVA for that matter) are obviously a better team is thin. I do think Duke and Maryland may be a cut above just based purely on depth, which is going to matter a whole lot this year.

 

[Gone]

With all due respect to lax observer, Georgetown's 2020 numbers were against extremely weak competition, as I stated in an earlier post. They are an unproven commodity - let's see how they do against Denver and then I will be more interested.

 

[laxobserver]

With all due respect to lax observer, Georgetown's 2020 numbers were against extremely weak competition, as I stated in an earlier post. They are an unproven commodity - let's see how they do against Denver and then I will be more interested.

Were Cuse's and UNC's competition that much better? Cuse's opponents were a combined 13-18 (.419). UNC's were 16-29 (.355). GTown's were 14-26 (.350). So about the same as UNC and not super far off from Syracuse's. GTown's 25-12 win against a 5-2 Fairfield team was just as impressive if not more so than Cuse's 9-7 close call with a 6-2 Army team that had just been shellacked by Marist. UNC's 15-13 win at Denver may have been the best of the group but that was the Heels' only win over a team with more than 2 wins on the season.

You are absolutely free to argue Syracuse is better but it's not just some indisputable fact that they are in a tier above Georgetown. No matter how you slice it they had very similar seasons last year and are each very talented at basically all positions. GTown was just as good in '19 and '18 as well so it's not like this is some new thing. They've been a different animal since hiring Phipps as OC.

 

[Zack80]

What puts Syracuse in a tier above Georgetown?

Georgetown is better defensively, just as strong in the cage, and their faceoff guy had a better % than the Phaup/Varello combo last year.

Syracuse might have a deeper offense, but it's pretty close there too. They averaged 0.1 more goals per game. Georgetown's offense was more efficient on a per possession basis.

I am not picking Georgetown to make the Final Four but the evidence that Syracuse (or UNC or UVA for that matter) are obviously a better team is thin. I do think Duke and Maryland may be a cut above just based purely on depth, which is going to matter a whole lot this year.

Before we get to that. Who are you picking?

 

[laxobserver]

Before we get to that. Who are you picking?

Duke and Maryland. I think they are just too loaded on offense, plus recent history suggests Danowski and Tillman each know how to get to the Final Four consistently.

Next I'd go Denver if they get TD. They sure looked rough yesterday against Utah but they were missing a few key guys and TD can mask issues. I think Matt Brown will have that offense playing much better by season's end.

Undecided on fourth team. Leaning Virginia, they are so deep on offense and underrated on D when their guys are healthy. But I could be persuaded toward Cuse. I'd pick UNC but their goalie situation makes me nervous. Cuse clearly has the better netminder.

I think Loyola is another team not many people are talking about. They are so well coached. Not going to pick them (still think they could use an alpha attackman and not sure Lindley or Olmstead are it) but I won't be surprised if they are there at the end.

Cuse is a very good team and absolutely a Final Four contender. Not questioning that one iota. Just wanted to challenge the conventional wisdom that places them a clear cut above a team like Georgetown. It's not sacrilegious to say the two teams are about even.

 

[Gone]

I'm not arguing that Cuse is indisputably better than Georgetown. My point is simply that until Georgetown plays some highly ranked teams, it is hard to evaluate them against the perennial ACC powers and BIG10. Cuse typically has a brutal schedule with ACC, Cornell, Army etc. who are all ranked. Cuse could easily lose most of their ACC games in 2021 and still be a good team. For ranking purposes, unfortunately (or fortunately??) for Georgetown, their schedule has not been as tough.

Georgetown certainly looks to be a strong team and will have the chance to prove it against Denver and Villanova in their conference. Hopefully they add a couple of other strong teams outside their conference. Playing high pressure games against strong opponents tends to be the best test of a team's abilities.

Comparing records of opposing teams last year can be misleading based on relative strength of schedule of those opposing teams - sample size is small so I don't want to go there. And as a Cuse fan, I'm happy to acknowledge that Cuse's performance in 2020 was solid but not overwhelming with offensive struggles against Army.

 

[Zack80]

Virginia's main problem last year was their close defense. Kology is a nice, big defenseman, but not really good at handling quick attackmen. Of course, Virginia went with 2 freshmen, Matsui and Bower. This spring Matsui and Bower will be sophomores and UVa gets Cade Sausted back from being injured. This leads to reasonable optimism that the close defense will improve. Rode is solid in goal and Conners is an AA LSM.
Offensively, UVa struggled a little last year, some of it because Aitken seemed off with his shot; probably Aitken will be back on track this spring. Of course, UVa loses Kraus. They have a nice core offensively of Aitken, Moore, Laviano and Cormier. How and how well they fill in the rest of the offense is a question mark. Bertrand was a star at Merrimack but how will that work at UVa? Conner has played well, but has struggled with his shot. Garno did well with his shot as a freshman last spring. Then you have Shellenberger a #1 recruit, trying to play midfield. Dickson might be waiting his turn on attack. A five star midfield recruit in Connell Kumar, along with an UA AA attackman in Patrick McIntosh. McIntosh, a lefty, was apparently on the five year high school plan transferring to Salisbury school (from California). Tiffany on McIntosh:
2021 – “Very active around the crease … finds space in the defense … a hunter ready to shoot … savvy with the two-man game … natural attackman but could be used at the midfield.” [ my read between the lines of coach speak is that he is in the running for pt].
FOs: Petey Lasalla and a top recruit Gable Braun showing up. Also Gavin Tygh.

I like all the options UVa has to fill in their offense. Defense looks like it should be solid.
Face-offs good, Goalie good. They might need to find someone who can really break down opponents defenses like Kraus did.

 

[Zack80]

UNC sounds pretty loaded on offense. Top 8 scorers are back. Add in a top midfield recruit in Cole Herbert. Of course, Gray leads the offense and is a 1st team AA type.
Caton Johnson struggled in goal last spring but did good in 2019 ( a full season). Defense, who knows? Held opponents to 10 gpg against a tough schedule including Mercer, Furman, Lafayette, and Colgate. Beat Denver 15-13.
I didn't pick them for the final four, but their offensive group sounds pretty strong.

 

[Zack80]

Syracuse, its tough having all of their first midfield line named to the preseason AA team. I don't see any preseason AA midfielders for Georgetown - how is this equal?

 

[ivorytower]

Thought Krauss would get replaced at attack by Cormier who has some similar strengths and could deliver similar production including assists. Talk however is Betrand at attack and Cormier joining Aiken on first mid line See a stronger midfield while attack output likely to be similar. Moore has been their main catalyst since 2019 season with 46g -43a , 89 pts that year culminating in him scoring 4 goals in chip. On track to post even higher numbers in 2020 . His last game was agaisnt Brown saw 7g-3a=10 pts. Moore is a star .

Enjoy watching UVA, they play fast and loose, can be sloppy at times but always pressuring . Rode is a very underrated goalie, 55 % only tells part of story. His lightning outlets upfield off saves ignites their transition. Their D will certainly be better in front of him given experience and addition.

LaScalla is a athlete with fast hands and feet. Could benefit from new fogo rules.

UVA will be a berry berry good team in 2021, better than 2020 imnsho.

 

[laxobserver]

Syracuse, its tough having all of their first midfield line named to the preseason AA team. I don't see any preseason AA midfielders for Georgetown - how is this equal?

It's not? Syracuse has the better midfield. I didn't realize we're only talking about midfield.

 

[Zack80]

It's not? Syracuse has the better midfield. I didn't realize we're only talking about midfield.

Where is Georgetown making up the difference?

 

[laxobserver]

Where is Georgetown making up the difference?

Defense. One of the best defenses in the country. Syracuse doesn't have anyone in Gibson Smith's league. No one does, really. Kid is just phenomenal.

Attack I'd probably call a wash, but Syracuse doesn't have an attackman as good as Carraway. Maybe Hiltz will be someday but we're a ways off from that.

Goalie and FOGO each seem like a wash as well.

 

[ivorytower]

Personally think Gtown is a top ten squad but that UNC game last year would have provided a clearer gauge because that 2020 schedule was very soft . Their D in 2019 gave up plenty of goals to attack units 1-thru-3 whenever they faced any of the better teams , Towson, Denver, Loyola, Yale, Providence, Villanova so Im not absolute on how strong their d is or isn't. Offensive numbers inflated by soft comp but will say that Carraway produces agaisnt the best and Watson has become a strong complement. Buccaro is gone but he was a superstar that was somewhat overlooked imo and Carraway is to a degree. Clark and Bucci are good mids but not sure if they have returned. Their Coach Warne gets them well prepared , his team has gone 31-10 over the last 2 1/2 seasons. Anyway, they are not on our regular season schedule n sos will differ so not going to proclaim anything , know a top ten can play n flip with a top five. That is what games and season are for, Gtown likely makes NCAA as we should so perhaps we'll see them down the road and then assessments can be reassessed.

 

[Zack80]

Defense. One of the best defenses in the country. Syracuse doesn't have anyone in Gibson Smith's league. No one does, really. Kid is just phenomenal.

Attack I'd probably call a wash, but Syracuse doesn't have an attackman as good as Carraway. Maybe Hiltz will be someday but we're a ways off from that.

Goalie and FOGO each seem like a wash as well.

I am not really convinced. While Georgetown's defense did a really nice job against weak teams last year, there is no evidence how they would do against top offenses. Top offenses will do a much better job on putting pressure on the weaker parts of Georgetown's defense.

While Syracuse did lose some nice parts to their defense, Mellen and Fernandez, Desko is usually able to put together a good defense.

I think Syracuse's starting midfield pretty much rules here, especially when you talk about beating other top teams to make the final four.

 

[PhatOrange]

Sorry sounds like sour grapes. In the same breath you're acknowledging he was "great on the wings" and that "maybe they will be a little worse" and yet his absence will not be noticed whatsoever? Not sure how to reconcile those thoughts. If he had left to graduation rather than transfer to a rival I'd bet money that the language/sentiment regarding his departure would have been different.

No sour grapes at all, just an opinion. He's never been the team's primary LSM. He's been basically a face-off wing guy and he's a good ground baller. He's done well sure, but imo losing him is barely a blip, hardly irreplaceable.

Having moved Kennedy, LSM is maybe my biggest team question mark. Fernandez 'maybe' would've slid in there or 'maybe' not. I'll take a leap of faith here, but I have a suspicion this Drago kid might be pretty good.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Personally think Gtown is a top ten squad but that UNC game last year would have provided a clearer gauge because that 2020 schedule was very soft . Their D in 2019 gave up plenty of goals to attack units 1-thru-3 whenever they faced any of the better teams , Towson, Denver, Loyola, Yale, Providence, Villanova so Im not absolute on how strong their d is or isn't. Offensive numbers inflated by soft comp but will say that Carraway produces agaisnt the best and Watson has become a strong complement. Buccaro is gone but he was a superstar that was somewhat overlooked imo and Carraway is to a degree. Clark and Bucci are good mids but not sure if they have returned. Their Coach Warne gets them well prepared , his team has gone 31-10 over the last 2 1/2 seasons. Anyway, they are not on our regular season schedule n sos will differ so not going to proclaim anything , know a top ten can play n flip with a top five. That is what games and season are for, Gtown likely makes NCAA as we should so perhaps we'll see them down the road and then assessments can be reassessed.

Spot on about their D. Unless 2020 was a major revamp year with lots of young talent playing for the first time, their D was not all that different from 2019. As you say they gave up big numbers to teams that were actually good (and providence), with their only impressive result being 9 goals for Denver in the big east tourney. Why are we supposed to think its suddenly a fantastic unit when the only new evidence is holding unimpressive teams to low goal totals in 2020?

 

[laxobserver]

Spot on about their D. Unless 2020 was a major revamp year with lots of young talent playing for the first time, their D was not all that different from 2019. As you say they gave up big numbers to teams that were actually good (and providence), with their only impressive result being 9 goals for Denver in the big east tourney. Why are we supposed to think its suddenly a fantastic unit when the only new evidence is holding unimpressive teams to low goal totals in 2020?

- 2020 WAS a bit of a revamp for them. Had new shorties, several guys in other new roles, and started a freshman at close D (James Donaldson, who was very good). Defense was still great, albeit against weak competition. Warne has a good system in place.
- It's not "suddenly" a fantastic unit. They were exceptional in 2018 as well, #10 in adjusted defensive efficiency that year, which takes into account the strength of the opposing offense. 2019 was the blip year. Not 2020. The defense is trending up.