Season Picks

[Zack80]

The guys at CollegeCrosse don't have much love for Syracuse.

My picks
National Champions: Maryland
Other final four: Duke, UVa, Syracuse
Tewaaraton: Jared Bernhardt
Coach of the Year: Tillman
Freshman of the Year: Jack Koras (Terps)
Dark Horse Team: Michigan

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

Jastrzembski is still pretty locked into the SU program with solid sources & his takes have always been fair without “homer-ism”. For him to predict Hiltz as NFOY is quite telling.

Also, does it seem inevitable to anyone else that SU & G’town meet in the tourney?

 

[laxobserver]

Freshman of the Year: Jack Koras (Terps)

The rest of your picks are fine but this quite the homer choice. Koras is going to be at best the 9th or 10th option on that offense, and that might be charitable. He simply isn't going to get enough touches to warrant "Freshman of the Year" attention unless there are several injuries (or Covid infections) ahead of him. Meanwhile guys like O'Neill, Grimes, and Hiltz are all in situations where they have a chance to either start on attack and/or rarely leave the field.

 

[PhatOrange]

Who did Syracuse lose of consequence that would prevent them from at least being picked as a FF team? Serious question. I think they would have been National Champs last year.

 

[Powellfan]

Who did Syracuse lose of consequence that would prevent them from at least being picked as a FF team? Serious question. I think they would have been National Champs last year.

I don't think its who they lost, but rather who other teams picked up. Duke picked up the most, but, that said, I don't think they were quite the normal Duke team we were used last year. I don't want to say they are overrated for this year, but at the same time I didn't get the sense they were Final Four bound last year. Still, picking up Sowers, and O'Neil was huge and it makes them pretty clear front runners. But they have question marks and they have a lot of mouths to feed and a number of guys who are just there for a one season rental. That can make chemistry difficult.

Maryland brings back everyone plus some more offensive pieces. Denver brings in two more big pieces plus maybe the best FOGO in the history of college lax. SU didn't bring in anyone that jumps out, which isn't as exciting as these other teams and I think new additions gets more attention from media and fans. I don't think its a bad thing if the Orange flies under the radar the bit, and hopefully they use it as a motivation tool.

SU did lose four contributors, Mellen who I think we moved on from pretty quickly since he was hurt for most of last year and he struggled in his only game, but he's still a big loss. Fernandez was the starting long stick and while he wasn't Joel White, or not really All American quality, he was a good player and SU doesn't have an obvious replacement. They miss his backup as well in Helmer who played more than people may have realized. Lipka could drive me crazy sometimes but he had a lot of experience and was a solid contributor to the second line.

I think most of these losses are replaceable (Mellen in the biggest but the Orange brought in some defensive help, so we will see). SU should be very good this season and I think they should be favorites for the Final Four and could beat any of these top teams. But there are a lot of good teams out there and I think there are 7 or 8 teams who I wouldn't be surprised to see in the Final Four or win the whole thing.

 

[Gone]

I find their love affair with Georgetown quite amusing. If you look at the Hoyas undefeated schedule from the 2020 season (Lafayette, UMBC, Fairfield, Bellarmine, Mt St Mary's and Towson), they didn't beat any of the legit ranked teams. Towson was 0-6!
It certainly looks like Georgetown has improved but...let's put the brakes on here.

 

[PhatOrange]

I don't think its who they lost, but rather who other teams picked up. Duke picked up the most, but, that said, I don't think they were quite the normal Duke team we were used last year. I don't want to say they are overrated for this year, but at the same time I didn't get the sense they were Final Four bound last year. Still, picking up Sowers, and O'Neil was huge and it makes them pretty clear front runners. But they have question marks and they have a lot of mouths to feed and a number of guys who are just there for a one season rental. That can make chemistry difficult.

Maryland brings back everyone plus some more offensive pieces. Denver brings in two more big pieces plus maybe the best FOGO in the history of college lax. SU didn't bring in anyone that jumps out, which isn't as exciting as these other teams and I think new additions gets more attention from media and fans. I don't think its a bad thing if the Orange flies under the radar the bit, and hopefully they use it as a motivation tool.

SU did lose four contributors, Mellen who I think we moved on from pretty quickly since he was hurt for most of last year and he struggled in his only game, but he's still a big loss. Fernandez was the starting long stick and while he wasn't Joel White, or not really All American quality, he was a good player and SU doesn't have an obvious replacement. They miss his backup as well in Helmer who played more than people may have realized. Lipka could drive me crazy sometimes but he had a lot of experience and was a solid contributor to the second line.

I think most of these losses are replaceable (Mellen in the biggest but the Orange brought in some defensive help, so we will see). SU should be very good this season and I think they should be favorites for the Final Four and could beat any of these top teams. But there are a lot of good teams out there and I think there are 7 or 8 teams who I wouldn't be surprised to see in the Final Four or win the whole thing.

Here's what I think about the losses. For starters, love Lipka, but no SSDM is a FF catalyst. Mellen only played 1 game last year and obviously would have really helped the defense later on if he got back to 100%. We won't notice Fernandez. I'm really interested though to see who will fill that LSM opening but these kids can all run and they have great size. There's also 13 close defenders so maybe there'll be some movement. These 3 are all defense guys though. I love a good tough physcial defense but offense wins lacrosse games.

Syracuse had what was shaping up to maybe be one of the most powerful offenses in the game in a LOOONG time. 5-0 Scoring 21, 17, 9, 21 and 15 against Colgate, Bingo, Army, Hobart and Hopkins. Not a murderers row but still, that's a lot of goals and I think it was a trend of a team that once it got it's legs later in the season was not going to be outscored.

Syracuse returns everyone and now adds Hiltz. It's a veteran offensive unit who've played a lot of lacrosse together. This Syracuse offense is going to be filthy good. Who's going to be able to slow it down? There's going to be some good offense out there but you're going to have to put a lot of points up to outscore this team. I think we're going to see an offensive machine we haven't seen before. Weapons everywhere. It's like Bama 2020, LSU 2019 imo. Buckle up.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Here's what I think about the losses. For starters, love Lipka, but no SSDM is a FF catalyst. Mellen only played 1 game last year and obviously would have really helped the defense later on if he got back to 100%. We won't notice Fernandez. I'm really interested though to see who will fill that LSM opening but these kids can all run and they have great size. There's also 13 close defenders so maybe there'll be some movement. These 3 are all defense guys though. I love a good tough physcial defense but offense wins lacrosse games.

Syracuse had what was shaping up to maybe be one of the most powerful offenses in the game in a LOOONG time. 5-0 Scoring 21, 17, 9, 21 and 15 against Colgate, Bingo, Army, Hobart and Hopkins. Not a murderers row but still, that's a lot of goals and I think it was a trend of a team that once it got it's legs later in the season was not going to be outscored.

Syracuse returns everyone and now adds Hiltz. It's a veteran offensive unit who've played a lot of lacrosse together. This Syracuse offense is going to be filthy good. Who's going to be able to slow it down? There's going to be some good offense out there but you're going to have to put a lot of points up to outscore this team. I think we're going to see an offensive machine we haven't seen before. Weapons everywhere. It's like Bama 2020, LSU 2019 imo. Buckle up.

Lipka was a second line O middie, I think your confusing him with someone else.

 

[Zack80]

The rest of your picks are fine but this quite the homer choice. Koras is going to be at best the 9th or 10th option on that offense, and that might be charitable. He simply isn't going to get enough touches to warrant "Freshman of the Year" attention unless there are several injuries (or Covid infections) ahead of him. Meanwhile guys like O'Neill, Grimes, and Hiltz are all in situations where they have a chance to either start on attack and/or rarely leave the field.

You are probably right. Koras might have trouble getting an opportunity to play. The two Hopkins guys picked Grimes, so I felt I was required to pick a UMd freshman.

I would caution you on some of your assumptions though. How can you be sure that he will be at best the 9th or 10th option on the offense? How many top MIAA players have turned out to be D1 stars?

 

[PhatOrange]

Lipka was a second line O middie, I think your confusing him with someone else.

You're right I did. I confused him with Dearth for some reason. I'll stay with my basic point though. I don't see Lipka as a big loss. Too many better offensive players.

 

[JeremyCuse]

You're right I did. I confused him with Dearth for some reason. I'll stay with my basic point though. I don't see Lipka as a big loss. Too many better offensive players.

I am in agreement with your thoughts on Lipka, nice player but not really a big loss in the grand scheme. I like Buttermore a lot, he just needs some help on the 2nd line.

 

[ivorytower]

LSU 19? Bama 20? Army had our 0 looking like Cuse 20 (fb) for better part of game.

Be a juggernaut if we had secured one of the following game changers ie Sowers, Gray, Morrill in portal over the last two years .

Not only are those playmakers point machines but also collaborators who enhance the other five on field. Very unfair to put onus on a rook but hopefully Hiltz raises front because Duke, UNC and UVA have arguably more rounded offenses


Wouldn't underestimate Georgetown, slaughtered lambs indeed but they also have legit star in Carraway as well as several talents ie Watson , Smith , McElroy and others . Im surprised not in top ten in polls.

 

[laxobserver]

You are probably right. Koras might have trouble getting an opportunity to play. The two Hopkins guys picked Grimes, so I felt I was required to pick a UMd freshman.

I would caution you on some of your assumptions though. How can you be sure that he will be at best the 9th or 10th option on the offense? How many top MIAA players have turned out to be D1 stars?

In his first year, is he really going to play over Bernhardt, Wisnauskas, DeMaio, Fairman, Holden, Brown, Maltz, Brennan, Long? The Terps also have another top ranked freshman as you know in Daniel Kelly who may need some PT. Even if he passes guys like Long or Brennan on the depth chart immediately he's still going to be a relative afterthought in that offense. I don't doubt that over the course of his career he will emerge as a great player who plays a lot but I doubt it happens in year one on that loaded roster.

We won't notice Fernandez.

Won't "notice"? I'm going to disagree. He's not completely irreplaceable or anything (few guys truly are) but he did lead the defense in GBs last year and is an asset on the wings and in the transition game. You sound like you have sour grapes from him transferring and are trying to minimize his contribution to the team in the last two years.

 

[DoctahLexus]

In his first year, is he really going to play over Bernhardt, Wisnauskas, DeMaio, Fairman, Holden, Brown, Maltz, Brennan, Long? The Terps also have another top ranked freshman as you know in Daniel Kelly who may need some PT. Even if he passes guys like Long or Brennan on the depth chart immediately he's still going to be a relative afterthought in that offense. I don't doubt that over the course of his career he will emerge as a great player who plays a lot but I doubt it happens in year one on that loaded roster.



Won't "notice"? I'm going to disagree. He's not completely irreplaceable or anything (few guys truly are) but he did lead the defense in GBs last year and is an asset on the wings and in the transition game. You sound like you have sour grapes from him transferring and are trying to minimize his contribution to the team in the last two years.

I don’t think you can assume sour grapes from that opinion. I feel basically the same way about him and like to think that I’m not bitter. Great on the wings but as a cover guy, the most important part of beIng an LSM, he was not overly elite by any means. I like to think we can find somone to replace his contributions from our long list of options. Maybe they will be a little worse but not so much worse that our d as a whole suffers.

Now Helmer on the other hand I do think we will feel the loss. Not a groundball machine but rarely did he get beat with a long pole in his hand. A great 4 year contributor who will be missed.

 

[SkyTopBus44]

Any idea what the criteria is for a dark horse team?

 

[Zack80]

In his first year, is he really going to play over Bernhardt, Wisnauskas, DeMaio, Fairman, Holden, Brown, Maltz, Brennan, Long? The Terps also have another top ranked freshman as you know in Daniel Kelly who may need some PT. Even if he passes guys like Long or Brennan on the depth chart immediately he's still going to be a relative afterthought in that offense. I don't doubt that over the course of his career he will emerge as a great player who plays a lot but I doubt it happens in year one on that loaded roster.

Certainly, Bernhardt, Wisnaukas, A.DeMaio, and Fairman would be at the top of the chart, having started for the Terps 2 or more seasons and been All-Americans in 2019, so Koras wouldn't play over them.
So you have the right-hand attack spot left. Maltz started there last year and could be challenged by Holden. Although, I favor Maltz. Koras is a left-hander and doesn't seem to be in competition for that role.

So now I have a bunch of players competing for the 3rd midfield spot and the 2nd midfield line. Who fits best, I don't know. That is what they are deciding on the practice field. Further the freshmen might bubble up as the season goes on.

 

[laxobserver]

I don’t think you can assume sour grapes from that opinion. I feel basically the same way about him and like to think that I’m not bitter. Great on the wings but as a cover guy, the most important part of beIng an LSM, he was not overly elite by any means. I like to think we can find somone to replace his contributions from our long list of options. Maybe they will be a little worse but not so much worse that our d as a whole suffers.

Now Helmer on the other hand I do think we will feel the loss. Not a groundball machine but rarely did he get beat with a long pole in his hand. A great 4 year contributor who will be missed.

Sorry sounds like sour grapes. In the same breath you're acknowledging he was "great on the wings" and that "maybe they will be a little worse" and yet his absence will not be noticed whatsoever? Not sure how to reconcile those thoughts. If he had left to graduation rather than transfer to a rival I'd bet money that the language/sentiment regarding his departure would have been different.

 

[sholokov2]

I don't think its who they lost, but rather who other teams picked up. Duke picked up the most, but, that said, I don't think they were quite the normal Duke team we were used last year. I don't want to say they are overrated for this year, but at the same time I didn't get the sense they were Final Four bound last year. Still, picking up Sowers, and O'Neil was huge and it makes them pretty clear front runners. But they have question marks and they have a lot of mouths to feed and a number of guys who are just there for a one season rental. That can make chemistry difficult.

Maryland brings back everyone plus some more offensive pieces. Denver brings in two more big pieces plus maybe the best FOGO in the history of college lax. SU didn't bring in anyone that jumps out, which isn't as exciting as these other teams and I think new additions gets more attention from media and fans. I don't think its a bad thing if the Orange flies under the radar the bit, and hopefully they use it as a motivation tool.

SU did lose four contributors, Mellen who I think we moved on from pretty quickly since he was hurt for most of last year and he struggled in his only game, but he's still a big loss. Fernandez was the starting long stick and while he wasn't Joel White, or not really All American quality, he was a good player and SU doesn't have an obvious replacement. They miss his backup as well in Helmer who played more than people may have realized. Lipka could drive me crazy sometimes but he had a lot of experience and was a solid contributor to the second line.

I think most of these losses are replaceable (Mellen in the biggest but the Orange brought in some defensive help, so we will see). SU should be very good this season and I think they should be favorites for the Final Four and could beat any of these top teams. But there are a lot of good teams out there and I think there are 7 or 8 teams who I wouldn't be surprised to see in the Final Four or win the whole thing.

I reminded myself reading this of the reason I consider your well considered, reasonable, knowledgable, always interesting and thorough evaluations some of the best writing on any forum. Never cheerleading, you bring a measured perspective to a variety of complex lacrosse issues. Consider this my annual thanks for the great work you have done and still do for all of us.

 

[ivorytower]

I second that emotion

 

[Zack80]

I think I would also point out to you LaxObserver. That while Hopkins is pretty wide open for freshmen starting, Duke and Syracuse are not quite so.
Duke has 4 offensive players on the USILA preseason AA list: Sowers, Williams, O.Caputo, Montgomery. Joe Robertson is back. Manown is back. You have all these experienced midfieders like: Leadmon, Badour, Lowrie, Quigley... back.

 

[Powellfan]

I reminded myself reading this of the reason I consider your well considered, reasonable, knowledgable, always interesting and thorough evaluations some of the best writing on any forum. Never cheerleading, you bring a measured perspective to a variety of complex lacrosse issues. Consider this my annual thanks for the great work you have done and still do for all of us.

Thanks so much for these kind words, it is humbling to read. Just grateful this forum exisits with super knowledgeable and passionate fans that enjoy this great sport.

 

[laxobserver]

I think I would also point out to you LaxObserver. That while Hopkins is pretty wide open for freshmen starting, Duke and Syracuse are not quite so.
Duke has 4 offensive players on the USILA preseason AA list: Sowers, Williams, O.Caputo, Montgomery. Joe Robertson is back. Manown is back. You have all these experienced midfieders like: Leadmon, Badour, Lowrie, Quigley... back.

That is true about Duke, they have a lot of guys. O'Neill might not start on attack immediately, but he's going to play a lot. #1 freshman, people are calling him the best prospect of the decade...if that's anywhere close to true, he will find his way to the field early and often.

For Syracuse, Griffin Cook is really the only obstacle to Hiltz starting on attack with Rehfuss and Scanlan. I don't think they'll hold him back very long.

 

[ivorytower]

Besides insane skills , O'Neill is physically mature.
Lax version of rookie LBJ who came into nba stronger than most vets and immediately completed at high level.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Sorry sounds like sour grapes. In the same breath you're acknowledging he was "great on the wings" and that "maybe they will be a little worse" and yet his absence will not be noticed whatsoever? Not sure how to reconcile those thoughts. If he had left to graduation rather than transfer to a rival I'd bet money that the language/sentiment regarding his departure would have been different.

Just think that cover D is a good deal more important than the face off wing, and that finding someone to replace a good fogo wing is easier than replacing a good cover guy. I really loved watching him play so he will be missed and Hopkins fans will be big fans of him, but I’d be more concerned if he was the guy we turned to to shut down a teams stud middie and he was not that at all.

Now you are actually right the language would probably be a little different! I would probably be less likely to mention that about his game, but now that he’s transferred out it feels a little easier to talk about both positive and negative aspects of his role for us.

 

[ClvrUsrnm]

Just think that cover D is a good deal more important than the face off wing, and that finding someone to replace a good fogo wing is easier than replacing a good cover guy. I really loved watching him play so he will be missed and Hopkins fans will be big fans of him, but I’d be more concerned if he was the guy we turned to to shut down a teams stud middie and he was not that at all.

Now you are actually right the language would probably be a little different! I would probably be less likely to mention that about his game, but now that he’s transferred out it feels a little easier to talk about both positive and negative aspects of his role for us.

Cover D is less important if you always have the ball. A great face off unit will get you the ball 75-plus percent of the time.