Selection Sunday thread...

[jncuse]

I keep seeing scoring margin mentioned, but here is a quote from the NCAA.com dated Feb 24, 2024:
"With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. What am I missing?

Do preseason ranking affect the end of season NET rankings?

NET highly correlates with KenPom. Its not line for line, but teams are very close to each other. So it's margin, with IMO NET valuing road a little bit more (especially blowouts)

Regarding pre-season rankings - they don't impact either one by March 15 (or really January 15). In the first third of the season or so, preseason predictions impact KP - he needs some preseason stuff to make it work after a few games. And he keeps it in there for the first third of the season or so drawing the weights down.

NET is all in season data - which is why they have to wait some 5 or so games before it is published. Otherwise the data could not be connected.

 

[kirbivore]

All I know is Purdue is not winning it all

Probably the bitterness speaking as they blew a 3 team ML parlay yesterday but they are my first #1 seed to lose in my bracket. Their guards still suck.

 

[kirbivore]

I’ve come to terms with the fact that UConn is probably going to win another one (although this time it wouldn’t be due to luck).

Instead of being bitter I'm just going to bet them round 1 and roll the profits into each game.

 

[Oakland]

NET highly correlates with KenPom. Its not line for line, but teams are very close to each other. So it's margin, with IMO NET valuing road a little bit more (especially blowouts)

Regarding pre-season rankings - they don't impact either one by March 15 (or really January 15). In the first third of the season or so, preseason predictions impact KP - he needs some preseason stuff to make it work after a few games. And he keeps it in there for the first third of the season or so drawing the weights down.

NET is all in season data - which is why they have to wait some 5 or so games before it is published. Otherwise the data could not be connected.

Thx, but I still don't understand the scoring margins issue: NCAA says doesn't use it, but it actually does???

 

[kirbivore]

A reminder for anybody actually doing the bracket.

Don't forget to put BYU in the Thursday/Saturday games. One of the classic NCAA tournament screw ups of all time when they put a BYU in Friday/Sunday games. They then had to fix their problem, by putting a play in game as a "14 seed"

Overall the committee is very lazy. Back in 2011 they could have very easily made the first Big East matchup possible in the sweet 16.

 

[kirbivore]

In this transfer portal era I think they should bring back the final 10 games criteria. With these teams changing so much I put more value in the final 10 than a November game where some of these teams have barely played together.

 

[two3zone]

NET highly correlates with KenPom. Its not line for line, but teams are very close to each other. So it's margin, with IMO NET valuing road a little bit more (especially blowouts)

Regarding pre-season rankings - they don't impact either one by March 15 (or really January 15). In the first third of the season or so, preseason predictions impact KP - he needs some preseason stuff to make it work after a few games. And he keeps it in there for the first third of the season or so drawing the weights down.

NET is all in season data - which is why they have to wait some 5 or so games before it is published. Otherwise the data could not be connected.

Do you think St Johns ends up getting in?

 

[MSOrange]

Not sure if Jerry Palm's bracket has been posted

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

www.cbssports.com

Last 4 in

Dayton
Texas AM
St John's
Duquesne

First 4 out
Colorado
Pitt
Virginia
Seton Hall

 

[sufan59]

I am biased for financial reasons when it comes to FAU but I agree. But I have always believed that you need to reward non-P6 programs when they are able to schedule P6 games and win them in the noncon.

So after Bryant they had a great stretch of games. At FGCU was a bad loss. They had a lot of games where they didn’t look great, but pulled it off in conference play. Last week against Memphis it looked like they were finally getting back into form that got them to the final four last year. Then they lose yesterday against a Temple team that is currently down 16 to UAB at halftime. I hope for FAU the committee didn’t have any contingencies on the winner of the American championship having anything to do with an FAU at large bid.

 

[kirbivore]

Has Lunardi gotten the insider info from the committee and "adjusted" his bracket yet?

 

[tbonezone]

I’m sure someone out there is putting corned beef as a topping on their pizza today

or potato

 

[jncuse]

Overall the committee is very lazy. Back in 2011 they could have very easily made the first Big East matchup possible in the sweet 16.

Yes, that was back in the days where they didn't even have the location rules that they have now, which actually encourage this. They needed to roll back from Elite 8 that year, but why they didn't then do sweet 16 was odd.

Not sure if Jerry Palm's bracket has been posted

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

www.cbssports.com

Last 4 in

Dayton
Texas AM
St John's
Duquesne

First 4 out
Colorado
Pitt
Virginia
Seton Hall

That is some bold picks. Duquesne in as an at-large?
Colorado out.

I hadn't even considered Duquesne as an at-large. Will take a peek.

EDIT - Duquesne won the A-10. They can't be involved in the play in. They should not be one of the last 4.

 

[tbonezone]

First 4 out
Colorado
Pitt
Virginia
Seton Hall

speaks to how bad the ACC is.

 

[rrlbees]

Thx, but I still don't understand the scoring margins issue: NCAA says doesn't use it, but it actually does???

They are FOS as always.

 

[Madbiker]

Everyone have their blank brackets printed out.

Welcome to "I used to love Selection Sunday, but now I don't care about Selection Sunday".
It's just another Sunday.

 

[sufan59]

Thx, but I still don't understand the scoring margins issue: NCAA says doesn't use it, but it actually does???

That is literally the only explanation of why Syracuse NET is in the 80s.

 

[Cuse181]

Thx, but I still don't understand the scoring margins issue: NCAA says doesn't use it, but it actually does???

I guess it’s hidden in the efficiency calcs

 

[Cusefan0307]

People seem to think if you have one elite win you automatically get in for some reason.

In other years that may have been the case, but this may be the strongest bubble ever with the amount of bids that were stolen.

 

[Madbiker]

Thx, but I still don't understand the scoring margins issue: NCAA says doesn't use it, but it actually does???

Offensive and defensive efficiency is going to correlate strongly with scoring margin. To maximize both Ken Pom and NET you need to run up scoring margins in wins and minimize margins in defeat. If you look at our team this year we have just as good of a story on Won/Loss Q1-Q2 as many teams with much higher NET because we have so many 15+ point losses. Those lopsided losses kill your efficiency numbers and therefore your NET.

 

[690West]

Instead of being bitter I'm just going to bet them round 1 and roll the profits into each game.

Yup. I’ve a got good chunk on UConn to win it all at +750. I need the emotional insurance so I don’t harm myself or loved ones as they move through the next couple weeks

 

[UpstateSM]

To Make
Colorado +450 (from couple weeks ago)
Hall +390

To Miss
Oklahoma +198

Order +5000
Yukon, UH, Purdue, UNC

 

[kirbivore]

Welcome to "I used to love Selection Sunday, but now I don't care about Selection Sunday".
It's just another Sunday.

 

[kingtidge]

Thx, but I still don't understand the scoring margins issue: NCAA says doesn't use it, but it actually does???

They don't use it directly... But they use NET and it's a major factor in NET efficiency metric and hence affects overall NET ranking.

Our blowout losses and margin on those losses kills our efficiency metric in NET and why we languish in the 80's.

I really don't have a problem with it.

This team gave up in a number of games this year and got boatraced. You never want to see lack of effort from a team repeatedly and the NET now punishes you for it - so there are consequences.

 

[Todoubled23]

Didn't see anyone post this yet. Just wow lol

 

[OrangeXtreme]

B1G is finished with 20 minutes to spare...