Shot Analytics - What's Wrong With Syracuse

[SWC75]

I didn't say the mid range jumper has no place in the game. It does. But from a pure percentage basis; just look at the numbers.


I'll use the NBA since I can get the data easier

For last season, the league average shooting% at the rim was 64.7%
From 3-9 feet it was 39.9%
From 10-15 feet it was 41.9%
From 16-23 feet it was 38.4%
From 3 point it was 36.8%. Except you get the extra point, so the effective FG% was 54.1.

Shots at the rim and from the 3 point line are the most efficient in the game. At the rim is the best since you have a much better shot of drawing fouls. But from 3 feet out to 23 feet, the NBA shoots roughly 40%.

You've got like every good defensive mind in the NBA building their defense towards allowing mid range jumpers as well.

But if you have more misses that's more rebounds and the defensive team is more likely to get them. And I maintain the movement necessary to get open two point shots by both the offensive and defensive teams is good for the offense and is greater than the movement needed to create and defend a three pointers or a dunk/lay-up. A team that is trying to defend the three and the rim shot is going to have an easier time of it than a team chasing after mobile two point shooters. I would also argue that the two pointers do more to set up the three pointers and rim shots than the three pointers and rims hots do to set each other up.

 

[rrlbees]

I didn't say the mid range jumper has no place in the game. It does. But from a pure percentage basis; just look at the numbers. I'll use the NBA since I can get the data easier For last season, the league average shooting% at the rim was 64.7% From 3-9 feet it was 39.9% From 10-15 feet it was 41.9% From 16-23 feet it was 38.4% From 3 point it was 36.8%. Except you get the extra point, so the effective FG% was 54.1. Shots at the rim and from the 3 point line are the most efficient in the game. At the rim is the best since you have a much better shot of drawing fouls. But from 3 feet out to 23 feet, the NBA shoots roughly 40%. You've got like every good defensive mind in the NBA building their defense towards allowing mid range jumpers as well.

Bravo. Somebody gets it.

 

[Knicks411]

But if you have more misses that's more rebounds and the defensive team is more likely to get them. And I maintain the movement necessary to get open two point shots by both the offensive and defensive teams is good for the offense and is greater than the movement needed to create and defend a three pointers or a dunk/lay-up. A team that is trying to defend the three and the rim shot is going to have an easier time of it than a team chasing after mobile two point shooters. I would also argue that the two pointers do more to set up the three pointers and rim shots than the three pointers and rims hots do to set each other up.

Mid range shots give you more misses than any other shot (once you account for the extra point you get on a 3).

Here's some more info, here are the teams that took the most shots from 16-23 feet last year (raw totals, not pace adjusted, so it isnt perfect) and how they ranked in offensive efficiency.

1) Philly- 26th
2) Phoenix- 29th
3) Washington- 30th
4) Utah- 10th
5) Chicago- 23rd

So the three teams that took the most 16-23 foot jumpers last year were among the 5 worst offenses in the league. I don't think that is a coincidence.

Same numbers for 2012
1) Charlotte- 30th
2) Philly- 20th
3) Boston-25th
4) Toronto-29th
5) Chicago-5th

The bulls are an outlier, otherwise terrible offenses.

No one is saying don't shoot mid range jumpers; you're better off making a defense defend every part of the floor. But the teams that rely on the mid range jumper the most are usually very bad offenses because the percentages don't work.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

But if you have more misses that's more rebounds and the defensive team is more likely to get them. And I maintain the movement necessary to get open two point shots by both the offensive and defensive teams is good for the offense and is greater than the movement needed to create and defend a three pointers or a dunk/lay-up. A team that is trying to defend the three and the rim shot is going to have an easier time of it than a team chasing after mobile two point shooters. I would also argue that the two pointers do more to set up the three pointers and rim shots than the three pointers and rims hots do to set each other up.

The gap in FG% between 2 point jumpers and 3 point shots in D-1 is quite small. 2 point jumpers is 35.7% and 3 pointers is 34.3%, irrelevant in terms of rebounding.

Considering only Points Per Shot (2x effective field goal percentage), excluding turnovers, offensive rebounding, fouls because it would take a lot longer to calculate right now. Teams are actually getting slightly more PPS against SU off an SU score than off of a rebound .97 vs .91.

If you then compared where SU was shooting and field goal percentage, compared to opponents start after, rebound or off score, here is the expected point differences

At Rim Shot SU = 1.23 Opp = .945 Diff SU +.29
2p Jumper SU = .714 Opp = .93 Diff Opp +.22
3p shot SU = 1.02 Opp = .93 Diff SU +.09

 

[SWC75]

Mid range shots give you more misses than any other shot (once you account for the extra point you get on a 3).

Here's some more info, here are the teams that took the most shots from 16-23 feet last year (raw totals, not pace adjusted, so it isnt perfect) and how they ranked in offensive efficiency.

1) Philly- 26th
2) Phoenix- 29th
3) Washington- 30th
4) Utah- 10th
5) Chicago- 23rd

So the three teams that took the most 16-23 foot jumpers last year were among the 5 worst offenses in the league. I don't think that is a coincidence.

Same numbers for 2012
1) Charlotte- 30th
2) Philly- 20th
3) Boston-25th
4) Toronto-29th
5) Chicago-5th

The bulls are an outlier, otherwise terrible offenses.

No one is saying don't shoot mid range jumpers; you're better off making a defense defend every part of the floor. But the teams that rely on the mid range jumper the most are usually very bad offenses because the percentages don't work.

What about 10-15 foot jumpers? I don't consider 16-23 feet to be "mid range", at least not for college. And we do have to consider that we are dealing with college players here, not NBA players with an obviously higher skill level.

 

[SWC75]

Bravo. Somebody gets it.

Those coaches who "got it" have produced the lowest-scoring and ugliest basketball we've seen since the 1940's.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I didn't say the mid range jumper has no place in the game. It does. But from a pure percentage basis; just look at the numbers.


I'll use the NBA since I can get the data easier

For last season, the league average shooting% at the rim was 64.7%
From 3-9 feet it was 39.9%
From 10-15 feet it was 41.9%
From 16-23 feet it was 38.4%
From 3 point it was 36.8%. Except you get the extra point, so the effective FG% was 54.1.

Shots at the rim and from the 3 point line are the most efficient in the game. At the rim is the best since you have a much better shot of drawing fouls. But from 3 feet out to 23 feet, the NBA shoots roughly 40%.

You've got like every good defensive mind in the NBA building their defense towards allowing mid range jumpers as well.

Exactly. Even Lebron shoots less than 40 percent on shots outside of three feet.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Mid range shots give you more misses than any other shot (once you account for the extra point you get on a 3).

Here's some more info, here are the teams that took the most shots from 16-23 feet last year (raw totals, not pace adjusted, so it isnt perfect) and how they ranked in offensive efficiency.

1) Philly- 26th
2) Phoenix- 29th
3) Washington- 30th
4) Utah- 10th
5) Chicago- 23rd

So the three teams that took the most 16-23 foot jumpers last year were among the 5 worst offenses in the league. I don't think that is a coincidence.

Same numbers for 2012
1) Charlotte- 30th
2) Philly- 20th
3) Boston-25th
4) Toronto-29th
5) Chicago-5th

The bulls are an outlier, otherwise terrible offenses.

No one is saying don't shoot mid range jumpers; you're better off making a defense defend every part of the floor. But the teams that rely on the mid range jumper the most are usually very bad offenses because the percentages don't work.

That's a little misleading. NBA defenders only casually challenge most 3's and they dive out of the way if somebody attacks the rim. A mid range jumper is taken where the team on defense usually has most of their guys standing around. It doesn't take effort to run out to challenge it and there really isn't a call to dive out of camera range. So those are by definition the most challenged shots, or rather they are the only consistently challenged shots. For better or worse college defenders usually try to stop all shots.

 

[Knicks411]

Those coaches who "got it" have produced the lowest-scoring and ugliest basketball we've seen since the 1940's.

That's more a function of lower possessions. I'm pretty sure offensive efficiency is just about as high as it's ever been. Obviously the ability to get an extra point on some shot helps this.

What about 10-15 foot jumpers? I don't consider 16-23 feet to be "mid range", at least not for college. And we do have to consider that we are dealing with college players here, not NBA players with an obviously higher skill level.

I know, the numbers are just easier to get for the NBA. If anything, the numbers should be lower in college. Also, the number of total shots in the 10-15 foot area is much lower than 16-23. Last year teams took nearly 3 times as many shots from 16-23 feet as 10-15. Just for reference.

Same info, for 10-15 feet, for the 2013 season
1) Dallas-13th (they have one of the best jump shooters ever)
2) Washington-30th
3) Philly- 26th
4) Cleveland- 20th
5) Chicago-23rd

and for the 2012 season
1) Philly-20th
2) Dallas- 22nd
3) New Orleans-28th
4) Memphis-19th
5) Boston-25th

It's the same story, maybe even more so. The teams that shoot the most 2 point jump shots usually have bad offenses.

That's a little misleading. NBA defenders only casually challenge most 3'

I'm not totally sure I buy this; though I watch a lot of Knicks games so maybe I do.
One point that is fair is the NBA 3 point line is further back, so it can be more difficult to guard both the rim and the 3 point line in the NBA because you need to get an extra 3 feet out to cover the line.

 

[44cuse]

What about 10-15 foot jumpers? I don't consider 16-23 feet to be "mid range", at least not for college. And we do have to consider that we are dealing with college players here, not NBA players with an obviously higher skill level.

If interested, here is what Daryl Morey is doing.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/t...d-league-plan-to-do-away-with-midrange-shots/

44cuse

 

[rrlbees]

Those coaches who "got it" have produced the lowest-scoring and ugliest basketball we've seen since the 1940's.

You're a numbers guy. So I'm sure you understand that things like 33% from 3 is equal to 50% from 2 in points produced. Lower scores is more a function of pace and more teams playing zone defenses than in the old day. Used to be run and gun but the game is more deliberate now.

 

[Knicks411]

One thing I find interesting is that you frequently hear people bemoan how the mid range jumper is a lost art in basketball and say kids only want to dunk and shoot 3's to get on sportscenter, when the reality is those are the higher percentage spots to score from anyway.

Kinda like how kids who grew up playing Madden realized way before NFL coaches did that it was a smarter to go for it a lot more on 4th down.

 

[BostonOrange]

Mid range shots give you more misses than any other shot (once you account for the extra point you get on a 3).

Here's some more info, here are the teams that took the most shots from 16-23 feet last year (raw totals, not pace adjusted, so it isnt perfect) and how they ranked in offensive efficiency.

1) Philly- 26th
2) Phoenix- 29th
3) Washington- 30th
4) Utah- 10th
5) Chicago- 23rd

So the three teams that took the most 16-23 foot jumpers last year were among the 5 worst offenses in the league. I don't think that is a coincidence.

Same numbers for 2012
1) Charlotte- 30th
2) Philly- 20th
3) Boston-25th
4) Toronto-29th
5) Chicago-5th

The bulls are an outlier, otherwise terrible offenses.

No one is saying don't shoot mid range jumpers; you're better off making a defense defend every part of the floor. But the teams that rely on the mid range jumper the most are usually very bad offenses because the percentages don't work.

Exactly. Mid-range jumpers are only useful to the extent they help you get more shots at the rim and open 3's.

 

[SWC75]

If interested, here is what Daryl Morey is doing.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/t...d-league-plan-to-do-away-with-midrange-shots/

44cuse

Two quotes that jump out at me, (because, of course, I agree with them):

"When a team has a threatening midrange presence, it is harder to guard and it spaces the floor better."

"And if defenses are able to take away those “efficient” areas, you better have alternative ways to generate offense."

 

[SWC75]

You're a numbers guy. So I'm sure you understand that things like 33% from 3 is equal to 50% from 2 in points produced. Lower scores is more a function of pace and more teams playing zone defenses than in the old day. Used to be run and gun but the game is more deliberate now.

It's not just a slower game. It's also a very static, vertical game, with everybody either jacking it up from the three point line or driving to the basket to score. The two point shot requires more horizontal movement and gets the defenders moving from side to side as well, which creates more openings. It's the difference between a "straight ahead" football game and one that uses more deception and probes for defensive weaknesses. I think the efficiency numbers have more to do with fewer turnovers than better shooting. This SU team is great at not turning the ball over but not so great at scoring.

 

[longislandcuse]

Maybe a certain player should stop OCD pump-faking before every shot and another should just play within the offense and not have us turn him into JJ Redick with the nonstop screens. Clearly Cooney isn't that guy so lets stop running him around like a meth addict and just let him spread the floor while we run pick and roll with people not named Keita.

A Middle School coach could solve our offense. We run the same 3 plays all game. Were about as creative as an off-white wall.

 

[rrlbees]

Maybe a certain player should stop OCD pump-faking before every shot and another should just play within the offense and not have us turn him into JJ Redick with the nonstop screens. Clearly Cooney isn't that guy so lets stop running him around like a meth addict and just let him spread the floor while we run pick and roll with people not named Keita.

A Middle School coach could solve our offense. We run the same 3 plays all game. Were about as creative as an off-white wall.

Maybe we should run actual plays for Cooney or do some kick outs by Fair or the bigs. I can think of one single SU player or current college player who uses their best 3 point shooter in the manner we do.

 

[44cuse]

Two quotes that jump out at me, (because, of course, I agree with them):

"When a team has a threatening midrange presence, it is harder to guard and it spaces the floor better."

"And if defenses are able to take away those “efficient” areas, you better have alternative ways to generate offense."

I think of it more like the Oregin Ducks of football. I believe in the numbers (like I believe Oregon changes the game with its pace of play), but teams can and will adjust. Look at the Pacers...they are very good defending the perimeter. If the players were even, and the Pacers emphasized perimeter defense and the Rockets employed this strategy, who would win? I don't really know, but my issue with jump shooting teams (Syracuse and the Warriors are good examples) is that if your offense is dependent on it, a good perimeter defensive team can take you out of your game. And if you aren't making shots, you'll lose to a team that has average perimeter defense.

Thankfully, the Warriors are more multi-dimensional than Syracuse is, but not by much.

IMO, balance is the key to winning. Over reliance on any one thing has a limit.

44cuse

 

[44cuse]

Clearly Cooney isn't that guy so lets stop running him around like a meth addict and just let him spread the floor while we run pick and roll with people not named Keita.

A Middle School coach could solve our offense. We run the same 3 plays all game. Were about as creative as an off-white wall.

P n R with Keita: ridiculous.

"Off-white wall". Great line. Well done.

44cuse

 

[BuffOrange]

UNC is Cuse squared as for loving the long 2.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

UNC is Cuse squared as for loving the long 2.

This is true. D-1 Average 29%, SU 39%, UNC 57% of shots 2 point jumpers.

 

[44cuse]

This is true. D-1 Average 29%, SU 39%, UNC 57% of shots 2 point jumpers.

Where did you find that?

44cuse

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Where did you find that?

44cuse

hoop-math.com

 

[BlackKnight76]

Shooting 33.3% from 3 is just as good as shooting 50% from 2. It would be really nice if we had more than one consistent threat from out there. Need Ennis to shoot more threes, I think, even if his efficiency dips a bit.

 

[44cuse]

hoop-math.com

Thank you.

44cuse