Shot Analytics - What's Wrong With Syracuse

[SaltLakeOrange]

Maybe we should run actual plays for Cooney or do some kick outs by Fair or the bigs. I can think of one single SU player or current college player who uses their best 3 point shooter in the manner we do.

I completely agree with this. Trevor has to work so hard for shots these days. Earlier in the season, there were kick outs...

I really think that once we stopped making the 15 footers defenses decided to take away that pass by not doubling on the shooter, making it hard to get Trevor a look where he could step into the shot. Bottom line, make a couple of shots and everything else opens up...obvious, but not that easy...

 

[Knicks411]

No one is saying completely abandon the 2 point jumper. I said multiple times in this thread you want to make th edefense have to guard you everywhere. But the 2 point jumper is the least efficient shot in the game; look at the numbers. And the teams who tailor their offenses around 2 point jumpers are usually bad offenses. I don't think that is a coincidence.

Shooting 33.3% from 3 is just as good as shooting 50% from 2. It would be really nice if we had more than one consistent threat from out there. Need Ennis to shoot more threes, I think, even if his efficiency dips a bit.

I would like to see Tyler pull the trigger on some more 3's.

 

[SUskibum]

the one setup i see as nearly unstoppable is playing playing a two man game with grant and cooney from the wing/baseline, have ennis at the top of the key, have fair on the the other wing in mid range or extended and have roc on the opposite block waiting for the put back or dump down from grant if his man goes to help.

cooneys guy clearly can't sag to help with grant, rocs guy can't help because grant can easily throw the pass over both defenders, you can't leave fair unguarded because he would bury his shot from the crosscourt pass and if ennis' guy helps, through him the ball and let him shoot or drive a wide open lane

please someone smarter than me (everyone) and someone who knows basketball better than me (also everyone) tell me why we don't utilize this set which appears to leverage our sweet balance (when healthy)

oh and i am going on record to say that cooney is going to pull a dirty from last year

 

[SWC75]

No one is saying completely abandon the 2 point jumper. I said multiple times in this thread you want to make th edefense have to guard you everywhere. But the 2 point jumper is the least efficient shot in the game; look at the numbers. And the teams who tailor their offenses around 2 point jumpers are usually bad offenses. I don't think that is a coincidence.



I would like to see Tyler pull the trigger on some more 3's.

I think we might be able to agree that the two point jumper is under-used. This year we have scored 2044 points. 906 have been in the paint, 447 from the line, 453 from the arc and 238 in what I call the "Twilight Zone" because it's kind of a forgotten area. And per the previously quoted numbers we shoot medium range jumpers more than most college teams, (mostly thanks to CJ). Ultimately, you want to force the defense to cover everything and, if they are "giving you something", (as they must if the sport amounts to anything), you take it.

Football is a sport that constantly morphs because defenses gear themselves to stop whatever is popular and leave themselves vulnerable to other strategies which may have been more popular in the past. And the best football offenses use the whole field and all their weapons. Basketball in it's current state is like a football offense their runs between the tackles or throws deep on every play.

And I still maintain that, at the college level anyway, there are more players who can consistently make a 10-15 footer than players who can consistently make a 20-25 footer. They just aren't encouraged to do so because it's not "efficient".

By the way, JB agrees with me that the 2 point shot is an under-used weapon. I've asked him about that on his show. He said Rick Pitino actually tells his player never to take a two point jumper but he (JB) would like to see more of it. In fact, in his last show he said of Trevor Cooney:
"I promise we always look for him but he’s always covered. He has to learn to go by that guy. That’s the next stage in his development."
In the Georgia Tech post game presser he said of Trevor:
"He’s either shooting the three or driving to the basket, he needs to have something else in there."

In the video of the presser, he also talks about pull-up jump shots. The full discussion is at the 13-14 minute mark:
http://cuse.com/news/2014/3/4/MBB_0304144407.aspx?path=mbasket#.UxyGX_ldVn8

 

[SWC75]

Maybe we should run actual plays for Cooney or do some kick outs by Fair or the bigs. I can think of one single SU player or current college player who uses their best 3 point shooter in the manner we do.

From JB's last show:

My question:

“Coach, we need more scoring and the most obvious possible source is getting Trevor Cooney back on track. Through the Notre Dame game he was a 44% three point shooter. He’s 26% since. When he comes flying off that screen, he’s moving parallel to the basket, has to turn to catch the ball and then turn again to shoot. Other teams have been having success by penetrating, drawing the defense in and passing back out where the three point shooter is not only open but already squared to the basket. He just has to catch it and go up with the shot. Could it help Trevor to penetrate not just to go to the hoop but also to set up passes like that?”

JB:

They never come off him. They don’t’ leave him. Occasionally Rak will get an offensive rebound and throw it out to him. I promise we always look for him but he’s always covered. He has to learn to go by that guy. That’s the next stage in his development. We practice that shot, (coming off of screens) 50 times a day. It’s a hard shot but it’s the only way to get him open….You have to run off screens to get there. Trevor is not good at ball screens, the way Tyler is. The defender is always running with him. If he gets caught up, they’ll switch off. Teams have even said they were going to cover him and didn’t care about the other players. He’s struggled shooting but he gets his shots. We set 50-60 screens a game. He’s got memories of the threes he’s made and we are confident he’ll make them going forward.“

 

[Knicks411]

And I still maintain that, at the college level anyway, there are more players who can consistently make a 10-15 footer than players who can consistently make a 20-25 footer. They just aren't encouraged to do so because it's not "efficient".

I don't think you need the quotes; it's not a particularly efficient shot.

The shooting percentages on shots from 10-15 feet is almost always higher than 20-25 feet; the issue is the extra point.

Btw I am not really agreeing that the 2 point jumper is underused. I don't think it should be completely abandoned in any offense, but I would always focus on getting the ball to the rim, breaking down the defense, and either getting shots at the rim or 3 point looks. To me, 2 point jumpers are the shots you take when you can't get one of the first 2. (Unless you have Dirk or Kevin Durant).


Just looking at the info on hoop-math, Hawaii leads the country in FG% on 2 point jumpers (I dont think they break it down based on shot distance, so we need to work with what we have); they are shooting 45.8% from that spot. That's the equivalent of about 30.5% from 3. Of the 351 teams in division one basketball; 324 of them have a better effective FG% on 3 point shots than the best 2 point jump shooting team does on their 2 point shots. 92% of the teams in the country shoot better from 3 than the best 2 point jump shooting team in the country; I don't think that is an argument for more 2 point jumpers.

 

[rrlbees]

From JB's last show: My question: “Coach, we need more scoring and the most obvious possible source is getting Trevor Cooney back on track. Through the Notre Dame game he was a 44% three point shooter. He’s 26% since. When he comes flying off that screen, he’s moving parallel to the basket, has to turn to catch the ball and then turn again to shoot. Other teams have been having success by penetrating, drawing the defense in and passing back out where the three point shooter is not only open but already squared to the basket. He just has to catch it and go up with the shot. Could it help Trevor to penetrate not just to go to the hoop but also to set up passes like that?” JB: They never come off him. They don’t’ leave him. Occasionally Rak will get an offensive rebound and throw it out to him. I promise we always look for him but he’s always covered. He has to learn to go by that guy. That’s the next stage in his development. We practice that shot, (coming off of screens) 50 times a day. It’s a hard shot but it’s the only way to get him open….You have to run off screens to get there. Trevor is not good at ball screens, the way Tyler is. The defender is always running with him. If he gets caught up, they’ll switch off. Teams have even said they were going to cover him and didn’t care about the other players. He’s struggled shooting but he gets his shots. We set 50-60 screens a game. He’s got memories of the threes he’s made and we are confident he’ll make them going forward.“

Exactly. We don't run plays for him nor penetrate and kick.

 

[SWC75]

Exactly. We don't run plays for him nor penetrate and kick.

"I promise we always look for him but he’s always covered. "

"We practice that shot, (coming off of screens) 50 times a day. It’s a hard shot but it’s the only way to get him open."

 

[SWC75]

I don't think you need the quotes; it's not a particularly efficient shot.

The shooting percentages on shots from 10-15 feet is almost always higher than 20-25 feet; the issue is the extra point.

Btw I am not really agreeing that the 2 point jumper is underused. I don't think it should be completely abandoned in any offense, but I would always focus on getting the ball to the rim, breaking down the defense, and either getting shots at the rim or 3 point looks. To me, 2 point jumpers are the shots you take when you can't get one of the first 2. (Unless you have Dirk or Kevin Durant).


Just looking at the info on hoop-math, Hawaii leads the country in FG% on 2 point jumpers (I dont think they break it down based on shot distance, so we need to work with what we have); they are shooting 45.8% from that spot. That's the equivalent of about 30.5% from 3. Of the 351 teams in division one basketball; 324 of them have a better effective FG% on 3 point shots than the best 2 point jump shooting team does on their 2 point shots. 92% of the teams in the country shoot better from 3 than the best 2 point jump shooting team in the country; I don't think that is an argument for more 2 point jumpers.

I think the fact that they are going to be guarding the paint and the arc more than the area in between is. Also that a two point shot sets up the short and long range shots better than they set up each other. I assume the most effecient shots is a dunk. Does that mean we should just take dunks? I like the idea of using all your weapons and making them cover everything.

And the irrelevant quotes are from a Hall of Famer.

 

[rrlbees]

"I promise we always look for him but he’s always covered. "

"We practice that shot, (coming off of screens) 50 times a day. It’s a hard shot but it’s the only way to get him open."

Those aren't plays. Him running around and a big sticking their hip out isn't a play. If it is, what other player have we had that always runs around like that? And I disagree with JB if he is saying they look to kick to him. Fair never does with anyone and he drives the lane more than anyone X 10. Did you watch that Belmont game? That's driving and kicking.

 

[rrlbees]

George asked what Jim does with a player who is struggling, like Trevor Cooney. “It’s easier when a player has shown he can make shots. Trevor is not fundamentally doing anything wrong. He’s pressured a bit more and is rushing it. We need him to shoot threes. You wouldn’t believe this kid. He shoots for an hour and a half- with focus. That’s hard to do. Some players claim they shot for an hour and half when they really did it for 20-30 minutes or so. He’ll be OK. We think next year he’ll be able to put it down, (get shots off the dribble) and score better. CJ Fair couldn’t put it down until this year.”

 

[Knicks411]

I think the fact that they are going to be guarding the paint and the arc more than the area in between is. Also that a two point shot sets up the short and long range shots better than they set up each other. I assume the most effecient shots is a dunk. Does that mean we should just take dunks? I like the idea of using all your weapons and making them cover everything.

And the irrelevant quotes are from a Hall of Famer.

I don't know what you think my argument is but at no point have I said any team should abandon any shot other than a dunk or 3 pointer.

 

[SWC75]

I don't know what you think my argument is but at no point have I said any team should abandon any shot other than a dunk or 3 pointer.

Maybe I should ask when you think a 2 pointer is appropriate. And when it should be passed up to look for a three pointer or to get the ball inside.

By the way, 6 of CJ Fair's 9 baskets today were 2 point jump shots.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I completely agree with this. Trevor has to work so hard for shots these days. Earlier in the season, there were kick outs...

I really think that once we stopped making the 15 footers defenses decided to take away that pass by not doubling on the shooter, making it hard to get Trevor a look where he could step into the shot. Bottom line, make a couple of shots and everything else opens up...obvious, but not that easy...

He hesitates on too many open shots. He's got cold feet now. He's not doing enough, because he over-relies on this 3 pointer.

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

He hesitates on too many open shots. He's got cold feet now. He's not doing enough, because he over-relies on this 3 pointer.

The two he made yesterday were vital to our win, especially the first one...he,along with the rest of the team played well...

It's one and done time...let's see what the kids have in them...