Some food for thought given that the goal at this point is to try to win the next couple and at least have something to build on. For this exercise, I'm going to assume the following:
If others feel differently, that's cool, just explaining my rationale on those players. Having said that, some thoughts on what we need/hope to see going forward.
Overall outlook
Not sure what to think exactly but I'm not entirely certain Hughes' likely departure blows up our season. The concern, which I share, is that a lot of our guys are pretty decent players and pretty fun to root for but maybe miscast in the roles they play. You'd love Dolezaj ... if he was your sixth man. You'd love Girard ... if he was your third guard. You'd love Buddy if you had a PG who broke down defenders and kicked to an open Buddy on the wing. Sidibe would be an overqualified backup center but isn't ideal as your starter.
But, having said that, is there a path for this group to get to 20+ regular season wins and get back to the dance? I think so. We need to get something from the young bigs and continued improvement from Sidibe/Marek. To be honest, Sidibe's 7 rebs in 23 minutes is pretty damn good for a cuse center. He's also a pretty decent catch/finish guy and put-back guy, which is fine. He's just got to be able to stay on the floor. Same with Marek -- he can be a 12-13 ppg guy who passes well and battles on the glass.
We also need to see Guerrier look more like Hak (not that they're terribly similar players) than Terrance Roberts. Needs to show some offensive refinement.
Girard's freshman season has been pretty darn good for a kid walking into the big time from Glens Falls. The turnovers have hurt us the past few games, but he pushes the tempo, has good vision, can shoot the ball and I think he has more ability to create a shot than we've seen. We just need him to be more consistent on both ends (he sometimes gets caught ball watching on defense). His height, or lack thereof, will always be an issue defensively, but he should be a solid player for us.
Goodine needs to be good enough offensively that we can take advantage of his strong defensive potential. Kadary and Woody? I'd be surprised if we get much out of either but maybe Kadary surprises and can help some with the shot creating.
Buddy is what he is, IMO, in terms of upside but he's a really solid offensive option and he's improved enough to be passable on defense.
We've done some good things but just haven't been able to figure out enough defensively and on the glass. If we can improve in those areas next year with Guerrier in the lineup and hopefully Sidibe/Marek staying on the floor a bit better as well as some sort of contribution from the younger bigs, we should at least be more effective on that end. Finding a go-to guy when we need a shot offensively is the difference between another .500-ish season and more like a 20-21 win season.
- Hughes moves on -- love to have him back but not sure it makes a ton of sense for him
- Carey transfers -- be interesting to have him back but my guess is that he seeks greener pastures
- Washington is not truly a member of the guard rotation -- not sure he'd transfer and hope he stays but I doubt he figures too much into the rotation
- Braswell is a non-factor -- I loved this kid and am rooting for him but the reports on his shins didn't sound good even looking forward so I think it's tough to count on him being a big part of the rotation.
- Would love to see this team play smarter defensively and avoid silly fouls to bigs
If you had told me preseason that Sidibe would be healthy all year, average 7 rpg and be a functional catch/finish guy down low I would have been pretty happy. Yes, we know he is going to get bullied by true bigs and it would have been nice to see him playing closer to like 225, but ultimately that's not bad production. Same with Marek going for 10/6.5/3. That would have been a win. Not sure I would have said that guarantees us an NCAA berth but pretty solid. The issue is these guys have spent so much time on the bench. Sid is averaging 23 mpg. If he's averaging more like 28-30 we would have been better this season. Marek is averaging 33 mpg, which is good and I, like everyone else, don't love the idea of guys having to play 40 mpg, but the reason he's at 33 is b/c he's been in foul trouble so often. That has hurt us and hurt his numbers. Need to come back next year and see both of these guys play smarter down low.
- Need to see the frosh take a step forward
Girard will never be the prototypical Syracuse PG (beating guys off the dribble, using his length to disrupt teams defensively) but he's been solid even if the efficiency has been a little hit or miss. Guerrier has really come on late and been a key factor in our ability to at least be respectable in conference. Edwards has had some moments for a raw, not terribly highly recruited big. Goodine has struggled but played a bit more of late. JBA, obviously, has redshirted. Really need to see Girard and Guerrier become more consistent and well-rounded offensively and, ideally, defensively as well as a couple of the other guys emerge as legitimate rotation pieces -- goodine as a third guard and either edwards or JBA as a functional piece of the rotation. The Edwards/JBA combo is particularly important given the first point on foul trouble. Guerrier is a pretty big 'X factor' if he can start knocking down a few jumpers and maybe improve a bit off the dribble. I say that knowing it's a bit unfair, but if there is no Hughes, Guerrier could become a de facto go-to guy at times. That's tricky.
- Strength and conditioning gains in the offseason
Hasn't been a strength for some reason. There are examples of guys who have improved while here -- Hughes, Marek, Gbinije, etc. -- have all improved as players but we haven't seen many guys change their physique. I don't really believe Marek/Sidibe will come back jacked or Girard will be two steps quicker, but even 10 pounds for Sid/Marek would help and Girard could get stronger and/or quicker if he's going nuts in the gym. Edwards needs to get stronger as well. The nice thing is that the two bigs are at least starting from better spots than the veterans we have now. Really hope we can work with them to improve.
- How do we replace Hughes' offensive output?
Really sort of the biggest matzo ball hanging out there for us right now. I don't worry about Hughes shooting a ton b/c he's under 30% from three in ACC play (not his fault, he's carrying a huge load). I think people underrate how much we could improve defensively and on the glass with sophomore Guerrier getting a bunch of Hughes' minutes (I feel like Hughes is really inconsistent on defense and not a great rebounder). But trying to replace Hughes' ability to create a shot could be a huge issue (his 5.3 FTs a game compared with Buddy's 1.3 a game and Joe's 3.1 despite a bunch of FTs in late game situations are a big issue). A more consistent Girard would help and a more well-rounded Guerrier would be great. A bit more from Goodine and Marek wouldn't hurt, but I really do wonder how we create a look in those key moments when we need to stop a run or try to ice a game. Rebounding and defense were huge question marks coming into this year and they doomed us. This is the huge question for next year and I'm pretty concerned that we'd struggle significantly here as well. I guess we go to Buddy?
Not sure what to think exactly but I'm not entirely certain Hughes' likely departure blows up our season. The concern, which I share, is that a lot of our guys are pretty decent players and pretty fun to root for but maybe miscast in the roles they play. You'd love Dolezaj ... if he was your sixth man. You'd love Girard ... if he was your third guard. You'd love Buddy if you had a PG who broke down defenders and kicked to an open Buddy on the wing. Sidibe would be an overqualified backup center but isn't ideal as your starter.
But, having said that, is there a path for this group to get to 20+ regular season wins and get back to the dance? I think so. We need to get something from the young bigs and continued improvement from Sidibe/Marek. To be honest, Sidibe's 7 rebs in 23 minutes is pretty damn good for a cuse center. He's also a pretty decent catch/finish guy and put-back guy, which is fine. He's just got to be able to stay on the floor. Same with Marek -- he can be a 12-13 ppg guy who passes well and battles on the glass.
We also need to see Guerrier look more like Hak (not that they're terribly similar players) than Terrance Roberts. Needs to show some offensive refinement.
Girard's freshman season has been pretty darn good for a kid walking into the big time from Glens Falls. The turnovers have hurt us the past few games, but he pushes the tempo, has good vision, can shoot the ball and I think he has more ability to create a shot than we've seen. We just need him to be more consistent on both ends (he sometimes gets caught ball watching on defense). His height, or lack thereof, will always be an issue defensively, but he should be a solid player for us.
Goodine needs to be good enough offensively that we can take advantage of his strong defensive potential. Kadary and Woody? I'd be surprised if we get much out of either but maybe Kadary surprises and can help some with the shot creating.
Buddy is what he is, IMO, in terms of upside but he's a really solid offensive option and he's improved enough to be passable on defense.
We've done some good things but just haven't been able to figure out enough defensively and on the glass. If we can improve in those areas next year with Guerrier in the lineup and hopefully Sidibe/Marek staying on the floor a bit better as well as some sort of contribution from the younger bigs, we should at least be more effective on that end. Finding a go-to guy when we need a shot offensively is the difference between another .500-ish season and more like a 20-21 win season.
