Spread Next Week (SU Opens +37.5)

[longislandcuse]

We play them tough, we keep it within 40

This sentence is hilarious in a super depressing way.

 

[skurey]

I'm betting Clemson.

I stink at betting.

 

[007]

Over the 100 years I've been on this board, I laugh every time some nitwit posts "vegas is giving away free money with this line." Vegas never gives away anything, on any game, ever. Sure, they are way off on a few games every week due mostly to chance variations. Their goal is always to get equal money on both sides of the line. I am stunned that the line is this "low" given how pathetically inept we are on both sides of the ball.

I'm no 690West, but I would bet that money is going to pour in on Clemson early this week. What does Vegas know within their formulas and analysis to set the line that "low" initially?

 

[690West]

Over the 100 years I've been on this board, I laugh every time some nitwit posts "vegas is giving away free money with this line." Vegas never gives away anything, on any game, ever. Sure, they are way off on a few games every week due mostly to chance variations. Their goal is always to get equal money on both sides of the line. I am stunned that the line is this "low" given how pathetically inept we are on both sides of the ball.

I'm no 690West, but I would bet that money is going to pour in on Clemson early this week. What does Vegas know within their formulas and analysis to set the line that "low" initially?

For the record whenever I throw out the “free money” line it’s 100% in jest. Haha.

the 37.5 might be due to them taking foot off the pedal mentality. Not sure.

The other comment that is always hilarious is the “clemsons third string would beat our starters”. Same folks say Bama would beat the Jets

 

[Alsacs]

For the record whenever I throw out the “free money” line it’s 100% in jest. Haha.

the 37.5 might be due to them taking foot off the pedal mentality. Not sure.

The other comment that is always hilarious is the “clemsons third string would beat our starters”. Same folks say Bama would beat the Jets

Clemson could start their punter at QB make their top 2 QBs completely unavailable and I would lay 21 points against us.

Our run defense is atrocious and Clemson has the best back in the nation.

They could sit their top 2 QBs and beat us by pretty much whatever they want.

 

[007]

For the record whenever I throw out the “free money” line it’s 100% in jest. Haha.

the 37.5 might be due to them taking foot off the pedal mentality. Not sure.

The other comment that is always hilariously inaccurate is the “clemsons third string would beat our starters”. Uh...wrong.

Believe me, you are the last person I would think is serious about free money comments.

I agree with the mental factor playing a big role. I would guess that Clemson will hold out any player who is banged up (they play ND 2 weeks after SU).

 

[007]

Clemson could start their punter at QB make their top 2 QBs completely unavailable and I would lay 21 points against us.

Our run defense is atrocious and Clemson has the best back in the nation.

They could sit their top 2 QBs and beat us by pretty much whatever they want.

I'm sure that will be the thinking of most average bettors out there (not saying you are an "average" bettor, by the way). If that is the case, why is the line that "low"?

 

[Alsacs]

I'm sure that will be the thinking of most average bettors out there (not saying you are an "average" bettor, by the way). If that is the case, why is the line that "low"?

THe line is low because Vegas wants to create a line that will attract bettors on both sides.
They don’t want it to be high off the bat and get killed on Syracuse action.

Clemson will name the score. Vegas can’t give too many points.
Look at Ohio State-Rutgers game last year.
Vegas made the line so high Rutgers covered.

 

[690West]

THe line is low because Vegas wants to create a line that will attract bettors on both sides.
They don’t want it to be high off the bat and get killed on Syracuse action.

Clemson will name the score. Vegas can’t give too many points.
Look at Ohio State-Rutgers game last year.
Vegas made the line so high Rutgers covered.

I forgot about another hilarious post people make. “X team can name the score”.

Thanks for reminding me!!!!

 

[007]

THe line is low because Vegas wants to create a line that will attract bettors on both sides.
They don’t want it to be high off the bat and get killed on Syracuse action.

Clemson will name the score. Vegas can’t give too many points.
Look at Ohio State-Rutgers game last year.
Vegas made the line so high Rutgers covered.

Yeah, I understand how the vig works and how Vegas makes money.

I was playing off your comment about Clemson playing their punter at QB and you would still not take 21 points. I realize you were being facetious to make a point. By not making it high enough, the early money will pour in on Clemson because most bettors will think as you did.

Just spitballing here. My question is more about why is that initial line so seemingly "low"? Vegas obviously wants to attract a lot of early Clemson money. Would you take SU at +44.5? That's a 7 point swing which means it would be a value play relative to the opening line.

 

[Alsacs]

I forgot about another hilarious post people make. “X team can name the score”.

Thanks for reminding me!!!!

So you are saying Clemson playing Trevor Lawrence and Etiene for 3 quarters rather than 2 quarters won’t affect how many points they score.
Their coaches can name the score depending on what personnel they use and for how long.
I mean c’mon I know you are challenging me but c’mon Clemson can name the score.
If they want to score 60 they can.
Their coaches will determine how many they want to score by how long they play players.

 

[Alsacs]

Yeah, I understand how the vig works and how Vegas makes money.

I was playing off your comment about Clemson playing their punter at QB and you would still not take 21 points. I realize you were being facetious to make a point. By not making it high enough, the early money will pour in on Clemson because most bettors will think as you did.

Just spitballing here. My question is more about why is that initial line so seemingly "low"? Vegas obviously wants to attract a lot of early Clemson money. Would you take SU at +44.5? That's a 7 point swing which means it would be a value play relative to the opening line.

If the line was 44.5 to open I would be inclined to consider SU.
At 37.5 no chance I would consider them.

I can see Dabo calling off the dogs at 49-0 and we get a garbage time score.
At 37.5 I have no confidence we can cover.
I expect Clemson to score at least 42 points.
Our offense sucks.
If we try to spread them out our QBs will throw INTs.
We have been getting embarrassed and we have won the turnover margin every game.
I have no confidence we get those turnovers against Clemson.

 

[Ticket Guy]

a point to think about before you pull the trigger on betting on Clemson is the 2nd and 3rd string QB are both hurting and figure not to get into the game. Trever L figures to be out of the game by halftime and the 4th and 5th team guys will get the mop up duty in the second half. That could keep the score down a bit.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Clemson will cover but I don't see this score being as bad as the GT game. Dabo has respect for Dino and knows how banged up we are. I'd be surprised if Lawrence and Etienne play more than 2 quarters. It makes sense for Clemson to flex their muscle against GT since they compete for recruits in the Georgia area.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Lol

 

[CanadianSU]

We lose by 55.

 

[gocraz4dasu]

Clemson could line up in I-form and only run a variation of a half-back dive behind their second string o-line all game and win by 3 scores easily.

 

[Dinkyspond]

Over the 100 years I've been on this board, I laugh every time some nitwit posts "vegas is giving away free money with this line." Vegas never gives away anything, on any game, ever. Sure, they are way off on a few games every week due mostly to chance variations. Their goal is always to get equal money on both sides of the line. I am stunned that the line is this "low" given how pathetically inept we are on both sides of the ball.

I'm no 690West, but I would bet that money is going to pour in on Clemson early this week. What does Vegas know within their formulas and analysis to set the line that "low" initially?

Yes, I thought it would higher too. at least in 40s or even a 50 spot. SYR, after all. is the worst team in P5 and Clemson is the best

 

[UpstateSM]

What’s the biggest spread we’ve ever seen as an underdog? Looking at today’s results and some numbers going into this week I think there’s a legit chance we’re 40+ point dogs at Clemson.

Opened 45 points at Circa

 

[qdawgg]

Wow, are we getting better? This isn’t a bad line

 

[kirbivore]

The game after SU for Clemson is BC, so factor in that there isn't some great opponent that Clemson could be looking ahead to.

 

[Oakland]

What does Vegas know that we dont???

What’s the biggest spread we’ve ever seen as an underdog? Looking at today’s results and some numbers going into this week I think there’s a legit chance we’re 40+ point dogs at Clemson.

 

[OburgOrange]

Lolololololololololol

 

[djorange1989]

Only 37.5? At first I thought that number was the over/under on our total yards of offense for the game

 

[nzm136]

would be absolutely shocked if Clemson is anything lower than -35 to -40.

I hate to say it, but I’ll be shocked if we can keep it that close.