Spring QB Preview: Tommy DeVito set to begin work with Sterlin Gilbert

[timkay99]

1) I work in a stats field.
2) I asked Hale if the stat includes throwaways on Twitter, but he didn't answer.
3) In 2018, Devito was very inconsistent (ineffective against WMU, awesome against UNC, awful against ND), and he didn't seem to be anymore comfortable or consistent in 2019.

I get you're trying to find a silver lining here. But there isn't really one. Yes, Devito was under pressure a lot and probably played most of the season hurt, but he was very risk averse and got rid of the ball too quickly in numerous situations instead of taking a chance downfield. Usually on 3rd down.

I worked in player evaluation on the baseball side for the previous 10 years across every talent talent, I do also have some experience relating stats to making decisions about players. Not devaluing your insight, I just have a different insight from my experience (which is the only way we can actually grow).

If Hale says it includes throwaways, I will definitely change my tune.

 

[Chip]

1) I work in a stats field.
2) I asked Hale if the stat includes throwaways on Twitter, but he didn't answer.
3) In 2018, Devito was very inconsistent (ineffective against WMU, awesome against UNC, awful against ND), and he didn't seem to be anymore comfortable or consistent in 2019.

I get you're trying to find a silver lining here. But there isn't really one. Yes, Devito was under pressure a lot and probably played most of the season hurt, but he was very risk averse and got rid of the ball too quickly in numerous situations instead of taking a chance downfield. Usually on 3rd down.

I think the OL crushed his confidence.

This is a big year for him, because the line will be better. Players are in the right positions. It won't be confused with the best OL's in college football, but it doesn't need to.

Hopefully he comes through because we need him to. Badly.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

I worked in player evaluation on the baseball side for the previous 10 years across every talent talent, I do also have some experience relating stats to making decisions about players. Not devaluing your insight, I just have a different insight from my experience (which is the only way we can actually grow).

If Hale says it includes throwaways, I will definitely change my tune.

I get what you're saying, and I don't think we're all that far apart in our opinions. My evaluation is not based in any sports experience.

I have far more memories of him throwing the ball away than I do completing passes of any length downfield, but that's likely a cognitive bias. That said, the throwaways seemingly have to have factored in to the low % downfield completions.

My evaluation is also based on the fact that several times during the season I thought, "He handles pressure like my mother-in-law." That is, rather irrational and spontaneous. So again, maybe cognitive bias.

We've seen he has the skills to drop a deep ball into the perfect spot. It's the rest of the work to open up those opportunities that seem to be the problem.

 

[CbusCuse]

Statistical significance is everything. Stats can lie to you. Look at INT and decision making as it relates to Tommy (doubt anyone agrees he made good decisions, but 5 INT's is traditionally how decision making is measured in QB's and that got him compared with Baker Mayfield).
Most of his deep ball issues (per my eyes) coincided with the rib injury (underthrowing balls, out of character from what we had seen up to that point) and the fact I highly, highly doubt that throwaways have been removed.


The above is interesting, because it appears the only spot Syracuse was serviceable on offense in 2019 was explosive plays.

It was an everybody problem in terms of moving the sticks.

We will go in circles about the validity of the stat and what you can take away from it as it relates to Tommy. Personally think it is a throw-away stat.

I would say no stats do not lie. They are what they are. But they can surely deceive without knowing the underlying reasons.

I would guess we were fairly good in explosive plays but i am pretty sure very few were from throwing a deep ball. Most of our explosive plays were a long run by a RB or a short pass that gets broken. We rarely threw the ball over 10 yards in large part because the pass block was atrocious but part of the blame has to be on Devito because he was not good in the pocked when rushed and teams were not oblivous to that fact. And when we did decide to pass it deeper, he was not very accurate last year as the stats point out. Partly because we mainly only threw past 10 yards on 3rd down in a bad situation when we had to. Much of the bad deep percentage is on the O-Line but I think Devito's accuracy was also off a bit and that was hopefully due in large part because of injury. But I don't remember him be very inaccurate when throwing to Triston Jasckson. He was not on the same page as any WR except Triston. He was not even on the same chapter as Taj Harris let alone the same page. This can't be all on Harris because I don't see how its possible he didn't hit any other slot WR's all year. The slot guys were still playing out there but it appears he was not even looking for these routes. I'm guessing a contributing factor was Def cordinaters played all the safeties in tight and didn't give help over the top like in years past because the deep threats were not all that threatening and they knew we couldn't block long enough. We need some WR deep threats to break out and Devito somehow needs to find some chemistry with some other receivers. Unfortunately their may not be a lot of practice time to do so.

 

[All4SU]

My evaluation is also based on the fact that several times during the season I thought, "He handles pressure like my mother-in-law." That is, rather irrational and spontaneous. So again, maybe cognitive bias.

So... does she have any eligibility remaining?

 

[UnknownOrange]

He wasn't comparing Tommy to Burrow.

Here is the number 1 QB at this stat: Burrow

Here is the average FBS QB at this stat: x%

Here is the guy who finished dead last in this stat: TD

He finished last. No way to skew those numbers. The guy who finished 115th probably had a bad line or bad receivers or whatever the case may be

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

So... does she have any eligibility remaining?

She's a Pitt grad. Does that change your interest?

 

[UnknownOrange]

Statistical significance is everything. Stats can lie to you. Look at INT and decision making as it relates to Tommy (doubt anyone agrees he made good decisions, but 5 INT's is traditionally how decision making is measured in QB's and that got him compared with Baker Mayfield).
Most of his deep ball issues (per my eyes) coincided with the rib injury (underthrowing balls, out of character from what we had seen up to that point) and the fact I highly, highly doubt that throwaways have been removed.


The above is interesting, because it appears the only spot Syracuse was serviceable on offense in 2019 was explosive plays.

It was an everybody problem in terms of moving the sticks.

We will go in circles about the validity of the stat and what you can take away from it as it relates to Tommy. Personally think it is a throw-away stat.

Explosive plays could be a 3 yards-in-the-air pass that went for 60. It could also be a 60 yard-in-the-air pass that went for 61.

However the "throwaway stat" is passes in the air 10 yard or more and our QB was the worst in the country at it.

I feel good that with Dino & Gilbert together, Tommy will not be at the bottom again.

 

[orangepassion]

Wonder where Welch ranked here

 

[SUFaninNJ]

I still think Tommy will be fine as our QB, but I'd be less worried if the stat was on passes of say, 20+ yards. Ten yards to me shouldn't be that atrocious.

 

[Redrum]

Why are some people surprised by this stat
Deep balls require time to throw , we ranked last in pass protection the 2 go hand in hand.
Conversely only he and Baker Mayfield have had the most productiion while being sacked the most ... let’s just hope the season starts and let the chips fall where they may . Tommy is looking extra large like linebacker large at 220.5 lbs benching 225x26 on his Instagram story . No you don’t muscle your way to Qb play but hopefully the size will help

 

[syrBossHogg]

 

[All4SU]

TD makes throwing look easy. We just have to find a way to keep him on his feet and give him some legitimate targets at the right times.

 

[PhatOrange]

TD makes throwing look easy. We just have to find a way to keep him on his feet and give him some legitimate targets at the right times.

Absolutely

 

[Nahson]

Absolutely

Also made some of the mos confusing, questionable calls I've ever seen a QB make ever. Not to be Deborah Downer.

 

[money3189]

Has the tools now just be a gamer. Line should be better and soIm hoping him and Taj can have that same chemistry ED had with Etta Tawo and Ish. Need to get more production from the slots also.

 

[AngryOtto]

If the line holds things will be better. My only concern is that we are not starting with a easy team to allow him to build confidence. It hurts that TD did not have much time to spend with Gilbert. Hopefully they have been speaking and doing a lot of film review.

 

[orangefog]

Also made some of the mos confusing, questionable calls I've ever seen a QB make ever. Not to be Deborah Downer.

I agree, but I think most of those bad decisions were after he was knocked around for a few games. I am confident that when he has time and as he gets to trust his line, he will make the right decisions and deliver the ball all over the field.

 

[billsin01]

I agree, but I think most of those bad decisions were after he was knocked around for a few games. I am confident that when he has time and as he gets to trust his line, he will make the right decisions and deliver the ball all over the field.

Hoping that is the case. Really not sure. Saw him in person against Maryland and while the defense stole the disgusting show and the OL wasn’t very good, I thought Tommy had a really rough game. I know folks will point to the numbers but just watching the decision-making live and seeing how antsy and unsure he was in the pocket — it makes me a little nervous.

the bright side is that I don’t feel like you have to be Peyton Manning to put up some numbers in this offense. We shall see.

 

[PhatOrange]

Also made some of the mos confusing, questionable calls I've ever seen a QB make ever. Not to be Deborah Downer.

He made a few in the face of crazy pressure, usually when trying to make something happen. But so what. It didn’t happen later in the season, im going to conclude he was learning.

 

[billsin01]

He made a few in the face of crazy pressure, usually when trying to make something happen. But so what. It didn’t happen later in the season, im going to conclude he was learning.

I think he has the tools so there is always hope. Why I’m not terribly optimistic is where the numbers were: WMU, Holy Cross, and the two blowouts (not his fault but simplystating a bunch of garbage time) against BC/UMD. I’m not discounting that production just saying we beat liberty by not having him throw the ball in the second half and then when the OL improved in the last few games he threw it 15 times (completing just 6) vs. duke and then essentially didn’t play vs. Wake.

That said, thought he had some nice moments and battled hard at times in tough circumstances (not sure we picked up a Clemson blitz the entire day, not sure the WRs were great, etc.). I’m rooting for him — really want to see him light it up. Think he has all the physical tools.

 

[kcsu]

I think he has the tools so there is always hope. Why I’m not terribly optimistic is where the numbers were: WMU, Holy Cross, and the two blowouts (not his fault but simplystating a bunch of garbage time) against BC/UMD. I’m not discounting that production just saying we beat liberty by not having him throw the ball in the second half and then when the OL improved in the last few games he threw it 15 times (completing just 6) vs. duke and then essentially didn’t play vs. Wake.

That said, thought he had some nice moments and battled hard at times in tough circumstances (not sure we picked up a Clemson blitz the entire day, not sure the WRs were great, etc.). I’m rooting for him — really want to see him light it up. Think he has all the physical tools.

He had the worst OL in college football. A QB coach who wasn't one. An OC who lost his Job.
TD is the least of our worries.

 

[TexanMark]

I’m not discounting that production just saying we beat liberty by not having him throw the ball in the second half and then when the OL improved in the last few games he threw it 15 times (completing just 6) vs. duke and then essentially didn’t play vs. Wake.

I was at the Duke game. It was a cold, windy day and hard to judge him fairly. BL: it was a huge victory and the defense put us in a great place to win without throwing too much.

I expect we'll see improvement on his decision making. If there is little chance to gain any yards with your legs on a roll out: throw it away before the defense forces you out of bounds. Much better to be 2nd and 10 than 2nd and 12 or 13. We saw too much of that and put too much pressure on the offense for 2nd or 3rd down.

This Fall I expect TD to elevate with better QB coaching and team execution. I can see him in the Top 3-4 QBs in the conference this year. The good folks at 247 ranked him 9th best back in February but I think that is too low.

 

[Redrum]

I think he has the tools so there is always hope. Why I’m not terribly optimistic is where the numbers were: WMU, Holy Cross, and the two blowouts (not his fault but simplystating a bunch of garbage time) against BC/UMD. I’m not discounting that production just saying we beat liberty by not having him throw the ball in the second half and then when the OL improved in the last few games he threw it 15 times (completing just 6) vs. duke and then essentially didn’t play vs. Wake.

That said, thought he had some nice moments and battled hard at times in tough circumstances (not sure we picked up a Clemson blitz the entire day, not sure the WRs were great, etc.). I’m rooting for him — really want to see him light it up. Think he has all the physical tools.

Duke game the wind was crazy the punts were all over the place and with. A big lead not really a need for a lot of throws

 

[cusefan88]

He looked very good in relief effort for ED in 2018 (FSU, UNC). My conclusion is that the OL and pressure really messed with his head and confidence.

I think a better OL and working with Gilbert now will do wonders for him. I expect him to really get going this year and set himself up to make a run at All-ACC his senior season.