Starts for the last 6 Games

[SoBristol]

Would you be willing to push out Maliq and JT for Bell and Brown to have their feelings saved by starting while we continue to be medicore? Because starting guys that don't produce has an impact on the guys that are coming off the bench.

I think you mean Bell and Benny.
I would start the best producers in recent games (Brown and JT), but the question was about JB's thinking. I am guessing he would focus on total minutes played, not whether it was starting or off the bench. I doubt Brown (for example) performs less well in 10 minutes off the bench, than in 10 minutes starting.

Overall, I see it as how the minutes are distributed, and how combinations work.

 

[PhatOrange]

Look, I've railed on Bell's lack of production as much as anyone, but your theory is non sense that these early game deficits are because Bell starts. Games ebb and flow for a multitude of reasons. IMO you could blame Benny as much as anyone else. I have no problem starting Taylor but I disagree with your theory that 6 early game deficits are because Bell started. Does he contribute stats, no. Is he the reason for the early game deficits, no.

What are the reasons we haven't had deficits in the other games Bell started then?

Cornell? Bell had 13 points and 5 rebounds in the game, thats just dumb.

UVA play by play. Syracuse starts the game with 2 turnovers in their first 2 possessions and gives up three 3's in their first 4 defensive possessions.

Shooting
Syracuse 4-8
UVA 7-9

3's
UVA 4
Syracuse 1 (Bell)

UVA had more rebounds, steals and blocks during this stretch. There are other guys on the court you know.

TIMEPLAYSYRUVA
19:49 John Bol Ajak Turnover. 0-0
19:49 Kihei Clark Steal. 0-0
19:44 Foul on John Bol Ajak. 0-0
19:26 Armaan Franklin made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Reece Beekman. 0-3
19:05 Jesse Edwards Turnover. 0-3
19:05 Kadin Shedrick Steal. 0-3
19:00 Jayden Gardner made Jumper. Assisted by Reece Beekman. 0-5
18:32 Jesse Edwards made Layup. 2-5
18:16 Armaan Franklin made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Kihei Clark. 2-8
18:08 Foul on Reece Beekman. 2-8
17:55 Judah Mintz missed Layup. 2-8
17:55 Kadin Shedrick Block. 2-8
17:49 Virginia Defensive Rebound. 2-8
17:33 Armaan Franklin made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Kihei Clark. 2-11
17:14 Chris Bell made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Joseph Girard III. 5-11
16:53 Jayden Gardner missed Layup. 5-11
16:47 Kadin Shedrick Offensive Rebound. 5-11
16:47 Kadin Shedrick made Layup. 5-13
16:25 Foul on Kadin Shedrick. 5-13
16:22 Joseph Girard III missed Three Point Jumper. 5-13
16:19 Jesse Edwards Offensive Rebound. 5-13
16:16 Joseph Girard III missed Jumper. 5-13
16:14 Isaac McKneely Defensive Rebound. 5-13
15:58 Ben Vander Plas missed Three Point Jumper. 5-13
15:55 Joseph Girard III Defensive Rebound. 5-13
15:41 Judah Mintz made Jumper. 7-13
15:19 Ben Vander Plas Turnover .7-13
15:19 Joseph Girard III Steal. 7-13
15:05 Maliq Brown made Dunk. Assisted by Jesse Edwards. 9-13
14:44 Isaac McKneely Turnover. 9-13
14:44 Maliq Brown Steal. 9-13
Official TV Timeout 9-13
14:34 Maliq Brown missed Layup. 9-13
14:34 Jesse Edwards Offensive Rebound. 9-13
14:34 Kadin Shedrick Block. 9-13
14:29 Jesse Edwards missed Dunk. 9-13
14:28 Armaan Franklin Defensive Rebound. 9-13
14:13 Reece Beekman made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Armaan Franklin. 9-16
13:50 Judah Mintz missed Layup. 9-16
13:50 Armaan Franklin Block. 9-16
13:46 Maliq Brown Offensive Rebound. 9-16
13:46 Maliq Brown Turnover. 9-16
13:46 Kadin Shedrick Steal. 9-16
13:46 Isaac McKneely made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Armaan Franklin. 9-19

 

[Oakland]

Just guessing here. I imagine Boeheim would not hang it all on Bell's play -- sometimes Mintz or Girard or both aren't that great out of the gate.

He also believes (from his comments) that Bell is a good shooter and Williams is our best overall forward, Obviously he wants Williams to take his game inside and stop trying to be a perimeter forward. Seems like Boeheim is pushing these kids, hoping they will come around.

But, whether they start or not, if the team is more effective with Taylor and Brown playing, those two will get starters minutes. JB is stubborn, but he does want to win.

It should be noted that Benny is making 3s 36.8% of the time, which is good. Bell is at 37.3% - just barely ahead of Benny!

One of the concerns going into this season was 3pt shooting. Benny is only 5th best - we have 5 guys shooting better than 36%; pretty darn good.

 

[djcon57]

Look, I've railed on Bell's lack of production as much as anyone, but your theory is non sense that these early game deficits are because Bell starts. Games ebb and flow for a multitude of reasons. IMO you could blame Benny as much as anyone else. I have no problem starting Taylor but I disagree with your theory that 6 early game deficits are because Bell started.

What are the reasons we haven't had deficits in the other games Bell started then?

Cornell? Bell had 13 points and 5 rebounds in the game, thats just dumb.

UVA play by play. Syracuse starts the game with 2 turnovers in their first 2 possessions and gives up three 3's in their first 4 defensive possessions.

Shooting
Syracuse 4-8
UVA 7-9

3's
UVA 4
Syracuse 1 (Bell)

UVA had more rebounds, steals and blocks during this stretch. There are other guys on the court you know.

TIMEPLAYSYRUVA
19:49 John Bol Ajak Turnover. 0-0
19:49 Kihei Clark Steal. 0-0
19:44 Foul on John Bol Ajak. 0-0
19:26 Armaan Franklin made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Reece Beekman. 0-3
19:05 Jesse Edwards Turnover. 0-3
19:05 Kadin Shedrick Steal. 0-3
19:00 Jayden Gardner made Jumper. Assisted by Reece Beekman. 0-5
18:32 Jesse Edwards made Layup. 2-5
18:16 Armaan Franklin made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Kihei Clark. 2-8
18:08 Foul on Reece Beekman. 2-8
17:55 Judah Mintz missed Layup. 2-8
17:55 Kadin Shedrick Block. 2-8
17:49 Virginia Defensive Rebound. 2-8
17:33 Armaan Franklin made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Kihei Clark. 2-11
17:14 Chris Bell made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Joseph Girard III. 5-11
16:53 Jayden Gardner missed Layup. 5-11
16:47 Kadin Shedrick Offensive Rebound. 5-11
16:47 Kadin Shedrick made Layup. 5-13
16:25 Foul on Kadin Shedrick. 5-13
16:22 Joseph Girard III missed Three Point Jumper. 5-13
16:19 Jesse Edwards Offensive Rebound. 5-13
16:16 Joseph Girard III missed Jumper. 5-13
16:14 Isaac McKneely Defensive Rebound. 5-13
15:58 Ben Vander Plas missed Three Point Jumper. 5-13
15:55 Joseph Girard III Defensive Rebound. 5-13
15:41 Judah Mintz made Jumper. 7-13
15:19 Ben Vander Plas Turnover .7-13
15:19 Joseph Girard III Steal. 7-13
15:05 Maliq Brown made Dunk. Assisted by Jesse Edwards. 9-13
14:44 Isaac McKneely Turnover. 9-13
14:44 Maliq Brown Steal. 9-13
Official TV Timeout 9-13
14:34 Maliq Brown missed Layup. 9-13
14:34 Jesse Edwards Offensive Rebound. 9-13
14:34 Kadin Shedrick Block. 9-13
14:29 Jesse Edwards missed Dunk. 9-13
14:28 Armaan Franklin Defensive Rebound. 9-13
14:13 Reece Beekman made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Armaan Franklin. 9-16
13:50 Judah Mintz missed Layup. 9-16
13:50 Armaan Franklin Block. 9-16
13:46 Maliq Brown Offensive Rebound. 9-16
13:46 Maliq Brown Turnover. 9-16
13:46 Kadin Shedrick Steal. 9-16
13:46 Isaac McKneely made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Armaan Franklin. 9-19

This argument of "there are other players on the court" blows up when you analyze other lineups WITH THE SAME PLAYERS. The same players do better when this one player isn't on the court.

1, 2 games with the same scenario, fine.

We're talking 16 games now and the vast majority we have fallen behind early.

I can accept the argument if you want to suggest the Benny AND Bell combo are the issue

 

[MCC]

I mean...if you don't understand basic analytics. Yes, It is crazy.

If we started Hima over Jesse and started every game down 5-10, then somehow got better when Jesse came in, would you say...HEY, Jesse plays more, not Hima's fault.

Rank	Name	OBPR	DBPR	BPR

1	Jesse Edwards	2.08	1.18	3.27
2	Joseph Girard	2.13	0.22	2.35
3	Justin Taylor	0.91	1.20	2.10
4	Maliq Brown	1.17	0.90	2.06
5	Judah Mintz	1.59	0.30	1.90
6	Symir Torrence	0.64	0.55	1.19
7	John Bol Ajak	-0.40	0.90	0.50
8	Benny Williams	0.24	0.22	0.45
9	Chris Bell	0.19	-0.01	0.18
10	Mounir Hima	-0.50	0.49	-0.01

These are from Evan Miyakawa's Bayesian analytics page, correct? IIRC there was a stark delineation in both Efficiency Margin and +/- between the 'J4M' lineup and everyone else. Further the 30d delta in BPR shows Brown's trending up strongly as he's gotten more minutes, while Williams and Bell show the most precipitous drop offs. This latter observation suggests Brown's productivity wasn't a function of playing against weaker, second teams and is 'reproducible' against stronger lineups and in extended minutes. While Bayesian stats shouldn't supplant the eye test, running the numbers against such a deep distribution and adjusting for strength of opposition yields some robust indicators that forward thinking basketball minds shouldn't ignore IMO.

 

[MCC]

Look, I've railed on Bell's lack of production as much as anyone, but your theory is non sense that these early game deficits are because Bell starts. Games ebb and flow for a multitude of reasons. IMO you could blame Benny as much as anyone else. I have no problem starting Taylor but I disagree with your theory that 6 early game deficits are because Bell started. Does he contribute stats, no. Is he the reason for the early game deficits, no.

What are the reasons we haven't had deficits in the other games Bell started then?

I'll suggest that the synergistic effect of keeping two weaker players in the starting lineup - Bell and Williams - is the real issue. Concur that pinning it solely on Bell doesn't hold water, but putting it on the starting forward tandem... that I can get behind (and the analytics support the argument).

 

[djcon57]

These are from Evan Miyakawa's Bayesian analytics page, correct? IIRC there was a stark delineation in both Efficiency Margin and +/- between the 'J4M' lineup and everyone else. Further the 30d delta in BPR shows Brown's trending up strongly as he's gotten more minutes, while Williams and Bell show the most precipitous drop offs. This latter observation suggests Brown's productivity wasn't a function of playing against weaker, second teams and is 'reproducible' against stronger lineups and in extended minutes. While Bayesian stats shouldn't supplant the eye test, running the numbers against such a deep distribution and adjusting for strength of opposition yields some robust indicators that forward thinking basketball minds shouldn't ignore IMO.

These numbers include last night, fwiw

 

[djcon57]

I'll suggest that the synergistic effect of keeping two weaker players in the starting lineup - Bell and Williams - is the real issue. Concur that pinning it solely on Bell doesn't hold water, but putting it on the starting forward tandem... that I can get behind (and the analytics support the argument).

One last Bell number to chew on.

His current Box Plus/Minus is -1.1

The last starter that started 17 or more games that had a negative number, 2014-2015 Kaleb Joseph.

So any suggestion that this is a normal situation at starter for us...just not true.

 

[Cuse181]

These are the analytics in the first 7 minutes of those games?

Or does Joe and Judah go 2-10 with 4 turnovers during that stretch and what is Benny doing during this time to?

Basic analytics right?

Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but if the trend continues game after game, and then immediately turns around when he heads to the bench… what is the common factor?

 

[Fly Rodder]

Maybe the net loss with Bell on the floor is that he doesn't do much other than shoot once or twice? It doesn't take much to tilt the game when it's 4 on 5. Basketball is a team sport, but you can't hide on the court. When one guy either isn't doing much on defense and/or offense, and the other players have to pick up the slack, then it's going to show up in the stats. A couple of possessions early on can tilt the score pretty quick.

And when the stats, eye test, and points all kinda line up, then it's not really that crazy. Bell doesn't contribute.

The best hustle play I've seen him make was saving an out of bounds ball last night but he turned his ankle and came out on the next play.

 

[PhatOrange]

Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but if the trend continues game after game, and then immediately turns around when he heads to the bench… what is the common factor?

You'd have to watch each game. Lets take the LVille game. We opened with leads of 8-2 and 10-6 (5 minutes in) with Bell.

Bell hit the opening three of the game in fact. During this first 5 minutes, Joe had a turnover, Mintz had a turnover, Edwards missed a layup, guys didn't get back on defense. Yet we're still winning. Then things go south.

During the next two minutes, Benny misses a shot, Edwards misses a rebound, Joe with another turnover, Edwards gives up an alley oop over his head, Bell gets striped driving into the lane but he actually hustles back on D and blocks the layup to which Benny overruns and misses the rebound, then Judah and Joe give up a 3 at the top of the key. Benny then throws a lazy inbounds pass that creates chaos and LVille gets the ball and scores again 5 point swing, then Joe bricks a shot, Edwards misses the rebound, LVille comes down and drains a 24 footer over Joe.

Scores goes to 19-10. JB calls TIMEOUT and after the TO, Taylor, Brown AND Hima come into the game. 3 subs.

This deficit had nothing to do with Bell and the first subs were 3 players. There is A LOT of blame to go around for these starts.

 

[UpstateSM]

JT and Brown have the highest ORTGs on the team and have the lowest usage of any players in the rotation. Exactly what you want out of your 4th and 5th options. Two lowest turnover % as well.

Make open shots, don’t turn the ball over, defer to the options higher on the totem pole and give effort on defense and on the board. Seems straightforward.

Edit: And I bend over backwards defending Benny. My eyes and the numbers don’t seem to be lying, though.

 

[Fly Rodder]

You'd have to watch each game. Lets take the LVille game. We opened with leads of 8-2 and 10-6 (5 minutes in) with Bell.

Bell hit the opening three of the game in fact. During this first 5 minutes, Joe had a turnover, Mintz had a turnover, Edwards missed a layup, guys didn't get back on defense. Yet we're still winning. Then things go south.

During the next two minutes, Benny misses a shot, Edwards misses a rebound, Joe with another turnover, Edwards gives up an alley oop over his head, Bell gets striped driving into the lane but he actually hustles back on D and blocks the layup to which Benny overruns and misses the rebound, then Judah and Joe give up a 3 at the top of the key. Benny then throws a lazy inbounds pass that creates chaos and LVille gets the ball and scores again 5 point swing, then Joe bricks a shot, Edwards misses the rebound, LVille comes down and drains a 24 footer over Joe.

Scores goes to 19-10. JB calls TIMEOUT and after the TO, Taylor, Brown AND Hima come into the game. 3 subs.

This deficit had nothing to do with Bell and the first subs were 3 players. There is A LOT of blame to go around.

So the stats are wrong or pointless? Because that's what you're trying to argue here. Anyone on a team can have an occasional good play. Are they making as many positive contributions over the course of season as someone else?

 

[Millhouse]

Va Tech - Down 12-7 when Bell subbed out at 13:23
Uva - Down 16-9 when Bell subbed out at 13:46
LVille - Down 19-10 when Bell subbed out at 12:29
BC - Down 10-6 when Bell subbed out 14:20
Pitt - Down 28-16 when Bell subbed out at 9:01
Cornell - Down 11-7 when Bell subbed out at 15:07


This is INSANITY to keep doing this and frankly unfair to the other players on the team. If you have to start him, fine, but pull him sooner like you did in Cornell game.

great job

 

[phil77]

One last Bell number to chew on.

His current Box Plus/Minus is -1.1

The last starter that started 17 or more games that had a negative number, 2014-2015 Kaleb Joseph.

So any suggestion that this is a normal situation at starter for us...just not true.

Do you have Benny's Box Plus/Minus? I would be interested in that compared to Bell's.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Do you have Benny's Box Plus/Minus? I would be interested in that compared to Bell's.

-0.4

 

[phil77]

JT and Brown have the highest ORTGs on the team and have the lowest usage of any players in the rotation. Exactly what you want out of your 4th and 5th options. Two lowest turnover % as well.

Make open shots, don’t turn the ball over, defer to the options higher on the totem pole and give effort on defense and on the board. Seems straightforward.

Edit: And I bend over backwards defending Benny. My eyes and the numbers don’t seem to be lying, though.

Exactly JT and Brown are the perfect complement to the other 3 starters. As Freshman they aren't flashy. They don't do anything crazy. They give 100% effort. They always seems to be in position. As freshman they are perfect role players to our starting lineup.

 

[Cuse181]

You'd have to watch each game. Lets take the LVille game. We opened with leads of 8-2 and 10-6 (5 minutes in) with Bell.

Bell hit the opening three of the game in fact. During this first 5 minutes, Joe had a turnover, Mintz had a turnover, Edwards missed a layup, guys didn't get back on defense. Yet we're still winning. Then things go south.

During the next two minutes, Benny misses a shot, Edwards misses a rebound, Joe with another turnover, Edwards gives up an alley oop over his head, Bell gets striped driving into the lane but he actually hustles back on D and blocks the layup to which Benny overruns and misses the rebound, then Judah and Joe give up a 3 at the top of the key. Benny then throws a lazy inbounds pass that creates chaos and LVille gets the ball and scores again 5 point swing, then Joe bricks a shot, Edwards misses the rebound, LVille comes down and drains a 24 footer over Joe.

Scores goes to 19-10. JB calls TIMEOUT and after the TO, Taylor, Brown AND Hima come into the game. 3 subs.

This deficit had nothing to do with Bell and the first subs were 3 players. There is A LOT of blame to go around for these starts.

If you say so man, it sure seems odd that the team makes runs when he goes to the bench.

 

[swish7]

For the year:

Our best center option in terms of PER, WS/40 and BPM: Jesse (obviously)
Our best guards (top two) in terms of PER, WS/40 and BPM: Judah and Joe
Our forwards (top two) in terms of WS/40 and BPM: Maliq and JT. In terms of PER, it's Maliq and Benny, with JT right behind him, and you can imagine how it's trending with PER.

This is a no-brainer. Get Maliq and JT into the starting lineup.

Sorry, what are these acronyms?

 

[Fly Rodder]

Sorry, what are these acronyms?

2022-23 Syracuse Orange Men's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2022-23 Syracuse Orange Roster and Stats for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

scroll down to the advanced section and you can hover over the acronym for an explanation. Basically, they're a distillation of counting stats (points, assists, rebounds, etc.) normalized for minutes played (and opponent in some cases) to get a sense of what a player does with their playing time.

 

[PhatOrange]

If you say so man, it sure seems odd that the team makes runs when he goes to the bench.

When does Benny sub out?

Brown seems to be the guy in when things start turning around.

 

[phil77]

-0.4

That was about what I was expecting. I know we had a couple of good runs with him on the court without Bell. I figured he might even be closer to 0.

 

[djcon57]

Make it 8 in a row w/o a lead.

ND - Tied at 26 when Bell subbed out at 8:06
Miami - Down 18-11 when Bell subbed out at 10:14

That said Bell obviously had a great second half vs ND and I thought he was good vs Miami in parts. But the numbers are the numbers. 8 in a row.

Not sure what it takes to try something else to start the game? Seems like an unnecessary hole.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Make it 8 in a row w/o a lead.

ND - Tied at 26 when Bell subbed out at 8:06
Miami - Down 18-11 when Bell subbed out at 10:14

That said Bell obviously had a great second half vs ND and I thought he was good vs Miami in parts. But the numbers are the numbers. 8 in a row.

Not sure what it takes to try something else to start the game? Seems like an unnecessary hole.

Even with Judahs clunker, Bell still had the worst BPM in yesterdays game.

 

[Cuse44]

If Bell & Benny get benched they immediately jump to the top of the transfer line (watch their body language when things don’t go their way as it is now). Add Jesse and Joe and maybe Judah leaving to a team with zero recruits for 2023 and you quickly can see that the coaches need to try and develop them as ‘starters’ IMO - Add to that they have the highest ‘ceiling’ on the team.