Statistical Matchup vs #8 Miami

[TheCusian]

We kind of held serve in most of our stats from last week - but that's saying a lot considering the opponent. Miami is an interesting team - they are a better offensive team than Clemson, but not as elite on D.

If I were to pick one place where we have a decided advantage it would be on 3rd downs - on both sides of the ball. We *must* do better to limit the explosive plays vs Miami, compared to Clemson. Make them earn it. (I think we do).

As always, here's your small PDF version.

 

[TheCusian]

They also are not great vs the run and their QB is inconsistent (like ED can be from half to half, until Clemson).

 

[upperdeck]

Every game comes down to chunk plays allowed. we did better against Clemson.. the LSU game swung on a couple. NC state turned on a couple as well.

 

[TheCusian]

Every game comes down to chunk plays allowed. we did better against Clemson.. the LSU game swung on a couple. NC state turned on a couple as well.

Yep. But they are harder to predict. Efficiency is reproducible and tends to travel well. I think we need to have a very similar offensive game this week as last week.

 

[upperdeck]

Miami fans think much the same as Clemson/LSU/NC state fans, their front 7s and will not let us do what we do.. our fans think well, we did it against NC st/LSU/Clemson so why not Miami?

We have done it on Grass twice so thats good.. Weather is the great unknown .

 

[TheCusian]

Miami fans think much the same as Clemson/LSU/NC state fans, their front 7s and will not let us do what we do.. our fans think well, we did it against NC st/LSU/Clemson so why not Miami?

We have done it on Grass twice so thats good.. Weather is the great unknown .

Exactly. I think we've shown that we can take a sack and still get what we want on O. Not ideal - but we are not "sack, run, run, punt" ... Plus going for it on 4th down helps mitigate inefficiencies or TFL's, some.

 

[TheCusian]

Also, If you want a deep dive into how Bill Connolly runs his stats, this is very good.

 

[Orangello]

One stat that absolutely needs fixed is penalties per game. We are leading the ACC and continue to kill ourselves with penalties. Last week was 12 for 100 yards (and Clemson had 11 for 119 from this flag happy crew). Out of curiosity, I looked to see what our rank is currently amongst FBS teams, and then HDCB team generally going back to 2014.

2017 (through 7 games) - Cuse 123rd out of 130 teams (8.8 penalties per game)
2016 - Cuse 124th out of 128 teams
2015 - BGSU 126th out of 128 teams
2014 - BGSU 118th out of 128 teams

Not a huge statistical pool but it would seem to indicate that HCDB's teams are penalized a lot. I am really surprised that no reporter has asked him about this and what he intends to do going forward to remedy the problem. I cant find the stat anywhere but I'm convinced we must lead the country in TD's overturned because of penalties.

 

[CIL]

One stat that absolutely needs fixed is penalties per game. We are leading the ACC and continue to kill ourselves with penalties. Last week was 12 for 100 yards (and Clemson had 11 for 119 from this flag happy crew). Out of curiosity, I looked to see what our rank is currently amongst FBS teams, and then HDCB team generally going back to 2014.

2017 (through 7 games) - Cuse 123rd out of 130 teams (8.8 penalties per game)
2016 - Cuse 124th out of 128 teams
2015 - BGSU 126th out of 128 teams
2014 - BGSU 118th out of 128 teams

Not a huge statistical pool but it would seem to indicate that HCDB's teams are penalized a lot. I am really surprised that no reporter has asked him about this and what he intends to do going forward to remedy the problem. I cant find the stat anywhere but I'm convinced we must lead the country in TD's overturned because of penalties.

We also run more plays...o bet if we played at a normal pace we’d look far better.

 

[Orangello]

We also run more plays...o bet if we played at a normal pace we’d look far better.

Could be. I also think the constant motion and player shifts in this offense increase the probability of an illegal formation, procedure and/or false start call. That said, it's a problem. If you're running 20% more plays but giving up an extra 60-80 yds in penalties your in essence spotting your opponent a drive.

 

[GoSU96]

We also run more plays...o bet if we played at a normal pace we’d look far better.

Exactly, stuff like that and sacks need to be looked at in the context of the number of plays run. When they go fast it can tend to chaotic. It comes with the territory.

 

[Ozcuse]

yeah you could normalize by looking at penalties per play to see how we stack up against the competition.

We ran 83 versus clemson's 59 and only had 1 penalty more.

 

[Trueblue25]

We will win this game on 3rd down

 

[690West]

yeah you could normalize by looking at penalties per play to see how we stack up against the competition.

We ran 83 versus clemson's 59 and only had 1 penalty more.

Somebody do this work! Very interested

 

[LAOrange]

Somebody do this work! Very interested

Take away the bogus Offensive Pass Interference calls since the ACC found out how good Ish is.

 

[HtownOrange]

yeah you could normalize by looking at penalties per play to see how we stack up against the competition.

We ran 83 versus clemson's 59 and only had 1 penalty more.

You also need to factor in defensive penalties and compare what opponents average and how they perform against Syracuse.

This offense is great but keeps the stats guys a little busy. A good problem to have.

 

[TheCusian]

We are the most penalized per game in the ACC: cfbstats.com - 2017 Atlantic Coast Conference Team Leaders

I don't want to go through and find O vs D penalties,

 

[HtownOrange]

We are the most penalized per game in the ACC: cfbstats.com - 2017 Atlantic Coast Conference Team Leaders

I don't want to go through and find O vs D penalties,

Can you find the total plays for each team (even if you cannot break down the O v. D plays)? That would be more telling.

Ex. We routinely run at least 50% more plays than opponents average. Thus, as a ballpark, our numbers are skewed at least 50% of the opponents average ; stated another way, reduce our penalties per game and penalty yards per game by 1/3.

 

[TheCusian]

Can you find the total plays for each team (even if you cannot break down the O v. D plays)? That would be more telling.

Ex. We routinely run at least 50% more plays than opponents average. Thus, as a ballpark, our numbers are skewed at least 50% of the opponents average ; stated another way, reduce our penalties per game and penalty yards per game by 1/3.

Crap, looked in the wrong spot first go round - not too hard to find:

Total Offensive Plays: 3241
Total Penalties: 57
Opp Offensive Plays: 2463
Opp Total Penalties: 48

Edit: I’m losing it - Fixed.

 

[HtownOrange]

Crap, looked in the wrong spot first go round - not too hard to find:

Total Offensive Plays: 3241
Total Penalties: 57
Opp Offensive Plays: 2463
Opp Total Penalties: 48

Edit: I’m losing it - Fixed.

Thanks!

This proves my point that on a per play basis, our penalties are not out of whack. By this count Syracuse runs a third more plays and averages a penalty every 57 plays while opponents average a penalty every 51 plays.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

Somebody do this work! Very interested

On offense, we average a penalty once every 18.63 plays which is 106th in the country.

On defense, we average a penalty once every 22.13 plays which is 64th in the country.

So altho I agree the pace itself can create opportunity for more formational/procedure penalties on offense the rate at which we commit offensive penalties is still very bad so far.

Statistical source is cfb analytics.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

As far as this week goes defensively we have to stop their running game and keep the ball in front of us on the pass (easier said than done).

On offense we have to score more TD's when we get the ball in the red zone. Think we need 31+ to win this game if the weather is decent.

 

[721Comstock]

As far as this week goes defensively we have to stop their running game and keep the ball in front of us on the pass (easier said than done).

On offense we have to score more TD's when we get the ball in the red zone. Think we need 31+ to win this game if the weather is decent.

They haven't given up more than 30 so far this year, so that might be tough to pull off.

That said, I think we'd all happily settle for another 27-24 win.

 

[SmilinBob]

Miami's schedule isn't exactly stellar. 2 patsies (Elon and Bethan Cookman) and then 3 teams that are pretty good/solid (Toledo, FSU and GT). SU's offense seems to be different than anyone in that group, this really is going to be an interesting game in many ways.

 

[TheCusian]

Miami's schedule isn't exactly stellar. 2 patsies (Elon and Bethan Cookman) and then 3 teams that are pretty good/solid (Toledo, FSU and GT). SU's offense seems to be different than anyone in that group, this really is going to be an interesting game in many ways.

They've played less games too. So their average opponent rank is slightly less diluted.

Very good point on style of offense. It's really hard to predict what a high tempo team will look like vs a defense that hasn't had to deal with it yet. One of the things that really stands out this year to years past - is our conditioning. We're built for this now. The advantage is obvious in the 4th Q. Couple times in the Pitt and Clemson games, they had D players look half-hearted at key moments (Like when Ish got that big 1st down, and the Clemson CB had his head down). Being out-conditioned has got to be extra painful, lol.