Statistical Matchup vs #8 Miami

[HtownOrange]

I read on a Miami board that they compare our offense to Toledo, with one guy stating that Toledo is better. I say let the learn the hard way, or as HCDB said:

"It's not their fault. They didn't know."

Also, many seem to think that 85 degrees is going to wear down the SU players and that Syracuse will not be able to run the offense as fast. Though one poster reminded them that SU averages nearly 90 offensive plays per game and that is #2 in the nation.

I'm not saying we will win, but I do think they will be surprised and if we catch lightening in a bottle, game over. The Orange have a taste for winning and they like the flavor!

 

[retro44]

I guess another fan base that thinks the dome is air conditioned and both LSU and N.C. St. are northern teams

 

[TheCusian]

I read on a Miami board that they compare our offense to Toledo, with one guy stating that Toledo is better. I say let the learn the hard way, or as HCDB said:

"It's not their fault. They didn't know."

Also, many seem to think that 85 degrees is going to wear down the SU players and that Syracuse will not be able to run the offense as fast. Though one poster reminded them that SU averages nearly 90 offensive plays per game and that is #2 in the nation.

I'm not saying we will win, but I do think they will be surprised and if we catch lightening in a bottle, game over. The Orange have a taste for winning and they like the flavor!

Clemson fans said similar things, while mocking the noise/heat of the dome. If the weather plays a part, it will be any wind/rain. A sloshy field is good for the offense.

 

[SmilinBob]

I read on a Miami board that they compare our offense to Toledo, with one guy stating that Toledo is better. I say let the learn the hard way, or as HCDB said:

"It's not their fault. They didn't know."

Also, many seem to think that 85 degrees is going to wear down the SU players and that Syracuse will not be able to run the offense as fast. Though one poster reminded them that SU averages nearly 90 offensive plays per game and that is #2 in the nation.

I'm not saying we will win, but I do think they will be surprised and if we catch lightening in a bottle, game over. The Orange have a taste for winning and they like the flavor!

They want hot? Play in the Dome on an 80 degree day and you got hot.

 

[HtownOrange]

I guess another fan base that thinks the dome is air conditioned and both LSU and N.C. St. are northern teams

In fairness to Miami's location, LSU and NCState ARE northern teams. Beyond that technicality, they miss the two obvious points that 1) SU should have beat LSU and could have beat NCState and 2) SU just beat Clemson, a rather well known southern team that thought the same thing as Miami.

I think they read the Rutgers board and actually believe that Syracuse is in Canada, near the arctic circle.

 

[SmilinBob]

In fairness to Miami's location, LSU and NCState ARE northern teams. Beyond that technicality, they miss the two obvious points that 1) SU should have beat LSU and could have beat NCState and 2) SU just beat Clemson, a rather well known southern team that thought the same thing as Miami.

I think they read the Rutgers board and actually believe that Syracuse is in Canada, near the arctic circle.

That's because SU can reach into the great north and get some talented Canadians to play for them with great frequency.

 

[TheCusian]

I've been reading about how fast we are - from Miami coaches and players quotes... Decided to show how our O puts teams in a bind (Kind of obvious, but the numbers are fun - geek alert):

If you go with this equation:

Cuse Yards per play + Miami Yards per play allowed / 2 = if both teams played exactly like they have yards per play (in this case 5.13 yards per play)

Then you take that and multiply it by the number of plays Syracuse averages per game (85.57).

This gets you a pretty good guess at what kind of yardage to expect vs Miami: 439 (S0 5.13*85.57= 439)

---

How about Miami's O - what do we expect from them, using the same simple equation: 6.19 yards per play * 67 plays per game = 414.73

Miami may average a full yard per play better - and still end up in a tight one

This game looks like the LSU and NC State games yardage wise. Interesting...

 

[SmilinBob]

I wonder how much of the Miami O stat wise was vs the 2 patsies and how much vs the 3 good teams and how much that skewed things?

 

[TheCusian]

I wonder how much of the Miami O stat wise was vs the 2 patsies and how much vs the 3 good teams and how much that skewed things?

As you suspect, if we use just P5 games, Miami's yardage goes down - while ours stays the course mostly (another sign that the offense is starting to really gel):

Syracuse expected yards vs Miami: 423.35
Miami expected yards vs Syracuse: 388.77

 

[Deez Nutz]

UM has now won 10 in row and outscored teams 208-69 in second half of those games and 345-138 in the second half of Richt’s 18 games as Miami’s coach.

That is a key stat. Games are won in the 2nd half.

 

[TheCusian]

UM has now won 10 in row and outscored teams 208-69 in second half of those games and 345-138 in the second half of Richt’s 18 games as Miami’s coach.

That is a key stat. Games are won in the 2nd half.

I agree, nutz.

Hope you can keep up . Looks like you guys play well in the 4th and Cuse in the 3rd.

Syracuse #11 in 3rd Q scoring
Miami #55 in 3rd Q scoring

 

[HtownOrange]

UM has now won 10 in row and outscored teams 208-69 in second half of those games and 345-138 in the second half of Richt’s 18 games as Miami’s coach.

That is a key stat. Games are won in the 2nd half.

You play the whole game. I.E. If Miami allows an opponent to score X while Miami scores Y in the first half, the Miami must make up the difference between X-Y before the outscoring averages can be weighed.

Obviously, if Miami takes care of business in each half, then the one stat that really counts (Wins) is not in jeopardy.

Fun fact: Clemson had the then current record for consecutive wins going into Friday night's game, at the time they had 11 consecutive wins.

 

[Deez Nutz]

You play the whole game. I.E. If Miami allows an opponent to score X while Miami scores Y in the first half, the Miami must make up the difference between X-Y before the outscoring averages can be weighed.

Obviously, if Miami takes care of business in each half, then the one stat that really counts (Wins) is not in jeopardy.

Fun fact: Clemson had the then current record for consecutive wins going into Friday night's game, at the time they had 11 consecutive wins.

You do know that win vs clemson was a fluke right? Pitt beat clemson last year.

 

[HtownOrange]

You do know that win vs clemson was a fluke right? Pitt beat clemson last year.

You do know that Miami has not been impressive, right? Nobody is impressed. Not even Miami.

You do know that Syracuse almost beat LSU.

You do know that Syracuse could have won the NCState game.

The best thing Miami has going for them is the fact that Syracuse has not learned how to perpetually win.

Remember, Syracuse does not need to win, only keep it a contest, to gain credibility. If Miami wins as they have done this year, they will continue to be disrespected because Miami is unimpressive in victory and they haven't played tough competition, FSU lost their starting QB who is the real deal, GATech almost walked away with the W. VATech will lose to Miami, ND might pull off a victory. UVA, though a decent team, should not give Miami a major test. Thus, beating Syracuse does nothing to impress the poll voters. However, if Miami does not thrash Syracuse, or worse - loses, Miami will be downed faster than a cheeseburger in front of a hungry lineman. I give Miami an 80-85% chance to win the game, but it is highly unlikely they get any style points. Clemson still has the inside track to win the Atlantic and probably the ACC.

P.S. Miami is too streaky right now to beat Clemson. Assuming a match-up in the ACCCG, Clemson will not give up and if Miami let's them have a half of dominance, Miami will not gather enough steam to beat them. Clemson has athletes and depth to match Miami. Even with a 2nd string QB, Clemson is a tough out for Miami.

 

[TheCusian]

You do know that win vs clemson was a fluke right? Pitt beat clemson last year.

You didn’t see the game then. We should have won by more - left points on the field.

No need to be scared, little hurricane

 

[721Comstock]

You didn’t see the game then. We should have won by more - left points on the field.

No need to be scared, little hurricane

18 points, easily. That much just from these 2 sequences:

Ish's soft/questionable OPI that took a TD off the board, then lead to the fumble and scoop-and-score on the very next play - 14 point swing.

Dungey getting "injured" on the 1 yard line and pulled for a play, led to The Officer coming in cold & getting stuffed, and we settled for a FG - 4 points left on the field.

If those 2 plays go the other way, we win over #2 ranked, defending National Champ Clemson in a 21 point rout.

 

[Deez Nutz]

You didn’t see the game then. We should have won by more - left points on the field.

No need to be scared, little hurricane

We have been leaving points on the field every week.

 

[TheCusian]

18 points, easily. That much just from these 2 sequences:

Ish's soft/questionable OPI that took a TD off the board, then lead to the fumble and scoop-and-score on the very next play - 14 point swing.

Dungey getting "injured" on the 1 yard line and pulled for a play, led to The Officer coming in cold & getting stuffed, and we settled for a FG - 4 points left on the field.

If those 2 plays go the other way, we win over #2 ranked, defending National Champ Clemson in a 21 point rout.

Exactly.

Miami beats GTech and FSU on last drives and at least one with a very lucky catch - but our win was a fluke.

C’mon.

 

[SmilinBob]

Exactly.

Miami beats GTech and FSU on last drives and at least one with a very lucky catch - but our win was a fluke.

C’mon.

Luckily this one will be determined on the field of play and not through voters. I missed U fans, they're like Rutgers fans only with a very good resume.

 

[CaneFan]

You do know that Miami has not been impressive, right? Nobody is impressed. Not even Miami.

You do know that Syracuse almost beat LSU.

You do know that Syracuse could have won the NCState game.

The best thing Miami has going for them is the fact that Syracuse has not learned how to perpetually win.

Remember, Syracuse does not need to win, only keep it a contest, to gain credibility. If Miami wins as they have done this year, they will continue to be disrespected because Miami is unimpressive in victory and they haven't played tough competition, FSU lost their starting QB who is the real deal, GATech almost walked away with the W. VATech will lose to Miami, ND might pull off a victory. UVA, though a decent team, should not give Miami a major test. Thus, beating Syracuse does nothing to impress the poll voters. However, if Miami does not thrash Syracuse, or worse - loses, Miami will be downed faster than a cheeseburger in front of a hungry lineman. I give Miami an 80-85% chance to win the game, but it is highly unlikely they get any style points. Clemson still has the inside track to win the Atlantic and probably the ACC.

P.S. Miami is too streaky right now to beat Clemson. Assuming a match-up in the ACCCG, Clemson will not give up and if Miami let's them have a half of dominance, Miami will not gather enough steam to beat them. Clemson has athletes and depth to match Miami. Even with a 2nd string QB, Clemson is a tough out for Miami.

Miami Fan here for some friendly banter. I'll start by saying that I don't think your win vs Clemson was a fluke. Now on to your points...

You almost beat LSU? The same LSU that lost to Troy at home? Not sure what you're trying to say with that.

You could have beat NC State? We could have won the National Championship last year, but we didn't. I could've won the lottery this week, but I didn't. Again, not sure how much credibility "could have" brings you.

As for credibility and impressing voters...we don't care. Our goal is the ACCCG. Whatever happens after that is gravy. Could care less about national perception. As for the game tomorrow, don't think this team will be taking you guys lightly. In fact, your win vs Clemson may work in our favor. You have the team's attention, whereas that may have not been the case before. Most level-headed fans don't think this will be a cakewalk by any means. I'm nervous but confident.

 

[CaneFan]

You didn’t see the game then. We should have won by more - left points on the field.

No need to be scared, little hurricane

You didn't see our game vs GT either I assume. We had 4 FGs, missed opportunities in the redzone. We also gave GT 7 points on a terrible botched on-side kick to start the second half. This 25-24 game could've easily been a 36-17 game.

 

[FasterCuse]

You didn't see our game vs GT either I assume. We had 4 FGs, missed opportunities in the redzone. We also gave GT 7 points on a terrible botched on-side kick to start the second half. This 25-24 game could've easily been a 36-17 game.

You could have put up 36 points? We could have won the National Championship last year, but we didn't. I could've won the lottery this week, but I didn't. Again, not sure how much credibility "could have" brings you.

 

[CaneFan]

You could have put up 36 points? We could have won the National Championship last year, but we didn't. I could've won the lottery this week, but I didn't. Again, not sure how much credibility "could have" brings you.

Haha. Fair enough. I'm just simply saying that our close game was only close due to a couple of factors. We actually outgunned them 480 vs 280, but again spotted them a TD on an on-side kick. The other poster was saying that your losses could have been wins and I think that can almost always be said about a game.

 

[TheCusian]

Haha. Fair enough. I'm just simply saying that our close game was only close due to a couple of factors. We actually outgunned them 480 vs 280, but again spotted them a TD on an on-side kick. The other poster was saying that your losses could have been wins and I think that can almost always be said about a game.

Yeah, except for us - until this year - our losses to top teams hasn't left much doubt. 56-0 to Clemson last season, etc.

Plus - the point wasn't "we could have a better record" - but that we're getting better week to week under Dino. He famously said the week he took the job that things will click right at about year 2, game 5-7 ... which is ... last week. This is going to be a close game. If your young QB starts slow, could be interesting.

I do think you guys have more raw talent and you finally have a good coach. So who knows?

 

[Janner]

Haha. Fair enough. I'm just simply saying that our close game was only close due to a couple of factors. We actually outgunned them 480 vs 280, but again spotted them a TD on an on-side kick. The other poster was saying that your losses could have been wins and I think that can almost always be said about a game.

Fact of the matter is we are playing with house money right now, absolutely no pressure to win this game, and, everyone is expecting us to lose (vegas has us at 16.5 dogs). Miami on the other hand has everything to lose (ACC title hopes, playoff & NC hopes, etc). If this game is close going into the 4th quarter Miami will be sweating you can count on it, and it wont be because of the heat.