SU after Boeheim

[Townie72]

I am shocked at the high confidence that some have in the future of the SU basketball program post-Boeheim.

Of course if you have the negative view of JB’s capabilities and judgment that many on this forum appear to have, I guess it’s easy to be confident. After all, how hard will it be to replace this stubborn fool, who fails to recruit the right kind of players, doesn’t develop the players he has and frequently has the wrong players on the court. Shouldn’t be hard to replace a guy with this many failings.

Now I’m not sure what’s going to happen, so I thought it might be useful to lay out the range of possibilities and see what the forum thinks will happen by assigning PROBABILITIES to each. If you give a selection a “0%” it means that this has Zero chance of occurring. That it’s impossible. If you give something a 100% score, it means that there is zero chance it won’t happen.

Here’s the continuum:
A. The program takes off and moves up to be a Top 5 regular
B. The program stays at the same level in terms of National ranking, NCAA performance, etc. (This could include a transitional period in which the program is down slightly as the new coach puts in his system and gets his recruits in)
C. The program goes into a decline in which every few years we are in the Top 20. We become a Maryland or a Wake Forest.
D. The program goes into a serious decline and ends up as a Seton Hall.

My guess would be: A – 5%, B – 50%, C- 40%, D-5%. I could be talked into giving B a lower % and C a higher one.

 

[Tobias Funke]

I am shocked at the high confidence that some have in the future of the SU basketball program post-Boeheim.

Of course if you have the negative view of JB’s capabilities and judgment that many on this forum appear to have, I guess it’s easy to be confident. After all, how hard will it be to replace this stubborn fool, who fails to recruit the right kind of players, doesn’t develop the players he has and frequently has the wrong players on the court. Shouldn’t be hard to replace a guy with this many failings.

Now I’m not sure what’s going to happen, so I thought it might be useful to lay out the range of possibilities and see what the forum thinks will happen by assigning PROBABILITIES to each. If you give a selection a “0%” it means that this has Zero chance of occurring. That it’s impossible. If you give something a 100% score, it means that there is zero chance it won’t happen.

Here’s the continuum:
A. The program takes off and moves up to be a Top 5 regular
B. The program stays at the same level in terms of National ranking, NCAA performance, etc. (This could include a transitional period in which the program is down slightly as the new coach puts in his system and gets his recruits in)
C. The program goes into a decline in which every few years we are in the Top 20. We become a Maryland or a Wake Forest.
D. The program goes into a serious decline and ends up as a Seton Hall.

My guess would be: A – 5%, B – 50%, C- 40%, D-5%. I could be talked into giving B a lower % and C a higher one.

I would say b would be very likely. I for one have not agreed with some of the gameplay out there this year. I feel we have failed to adjust at times, but I think people are crazy to hope JB goes away. Hop is basically Tyler Ennis at this point. A guy who is great working on a lower level that everyone expects to be the answer. He may be he may not. I would like to sign up for JB for a couple more years

 

[Townie72]

I would say b would be very likely. I for one have not agreed with some of the gameplay out there this year. I feel we have failed to adjust at times, but I think people are crazy to hope JB goes away. Hop is basically Tyler Ennis at this point. A guy who is great working on a lower level that everyone expects to be the answer. He may be he may not. I would like to sign up for JB for a couple more years

"Very Likely" wont cut it for this. What % Probability.

What about Alternatives C and D? What % probability for these?

 

[Tobias Funke]

Funny I asked you to rank JB 1-10 on his performance this season and you never quite committed, but ok I will play..

A: 5 %
B: 45%
C: 45%
D: 5%

I believe we have the history unlike many schools. If the right moves were made by DGross we should be able to reach at a minimum option C which would be a disappointment. I think A is unlikely long term bless you name is Kentucky I think most programs will see dips at any point each decade albeit minimal I don't see Top 5 year over year without exception.

 

[WoadBlue]

The Syracuse basketball fan base is too large for the program to become a Seton Hall. But if Boeheim keeps floundering and then is replaced by somebody not up to the task, then it could become what we saw with Maryland.

Boeheim needs to be facing his legacy and realizing that he can ruin much of it if he drags down the program and then leaves it struggling. Bobby Bowden put FSU football in a big hole because he coached about 5 years too long. Gross needs to be thinking about the future changes and preparing to make the right hire.

 

[Shenexon]

Especially if JB can muster one more NC before he moves on, SU is and will continue to be a destination for players and coaches. SU is a highly successful program moving to a new conference with great potential for future success. I believe we'll get a bump from the move to the ACC and see it as more like 66% B, 25% C, 8 % A, and 1 % D.

 

[Townie72]

The Syracuse basketball fan base is too large for the program to become a Seton Hall. But if Boeheim keeps floundering and then is replaced by somebody not up to the task, then it could become what we saw with Maryland.

Boeheim needs to be facing his legacy and realizing that he can ruin much of it if he drags down the program and then leaves it struggling. Bobby Bowden put FSU football in a big hole because he coached about 5 years too long. Gross needs to be thinking about the future changes and preparing to make the right hire.

Gross track record on replacing coaches doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. I hope they give the real task to some one else or a small committee.

 

[CuseGrad94]

I am shocked at the high confidence that some have in the future of the SU basketball program post-Boeheim.

Of course if you have the negative view of JB’s capabilities and judgment that many on this forum appear to have, I guess it’s easy to be confident. After all, how hard will it be to replace this stubborn fool, who fails to recruit the right kind of players, doesn’t develop the players he has and frequently has the wrong players on the court. Shouldn’t be hard to replace a guy with this many failings.

Now I’m not sure what’s going to happen, so I thought it might be useful to lay out the range of possibilities and see what the forum thinks will happen by assigning PROBABILITIES to each. If you give a selection a “0%” it means that this has Zero chance of occurring. That it’s impossible. If you give something a 100% score, it means that there is zero chance it won’t happen.

Here’s the continuum:
A. The program takes off and moves up to be a Top 5 regular
B. The program stays at the same level in terms of National ranking, NCAA performance, etc. (This could include a transitional period in which the program is down slightly as the new coach puts in his system and gets his recruits in)
C. The program goes into a decline in which every few years we are in the Top 20. We become a Maryland or a Wake Forest.
D. The program goes into a serious decline and ends up as a Seton Hall.

My guess would be: A – 5%, B – 50%, C- 40%, D-5%. I could be talked into giving B a lower % and C a higher one.

A-3%. UNC, Duke,Kansas,Kentucky, 5th place debatable but we couldn't be there with a HOF coach I don't think we could do it consistently without one

B-45% the tradition JB left helps build a legacy that carries on "forever". Melo Center keeps the recruits coming

C- 51% we will all see it is hard to replace a hof'er

D-1% no way no how Melo Center alone doesn't allow that to happen


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[raf4488]

SU has been a #1 seed 2 out of the past 4 seasons, has won the most competitive conference in CBB outright 2 of the past 4 years, went 34-3 JUST LAST YEAR, and has the #6 recruiting class for 2013 and the #1 class for 2014 (according to TOS).
So, I say 25% A, 60% B, 15% C, 0% D.

It isn't that I don't think JB will be difficult to replace, I just think that he has laid such an excellent foundation for the next coach that the program shouldn't lose a step if that coach is capable. Hopkins is more than familiar enough with this program to keep it on an upward trajectory, and he's been an essential part of the program's success for over a decade. If it's not Hopkins, we can attract another extremely qualified candidate.

 

[CiceroCuse]

I think there are too many variables at play but I will play anyways.

A - 2% we are not a blue blood and never will be. Still trying to recruit to CNY. We will not get the three 5 star recruits every year like UK, UNC or D

B - 60% more than likely if done correctly and we don't have everyone bail on the program. If Hopkins suceeds JB, I think we will stay here because he is a great recruiter.

C - 37% With a bad sucession plan, we do take an appreciable dip that may be prolonged

D - 1% Just don't see it. Tradition. Facilitites. Marsh.

 

[anomander]

Haven't we been option A over the past 5 years or so?

I don't see us dropping off much. We have some of the best facilities in the country.

We have history, and a lot of it.

Capacity to play in front of the largest attendance year in and year out

Play in the ACC versus the likes of Duke, UNC, Louisville, Pitt etc

We should have a line out the door to be our next coach. If it's not Hop, it will be a big name, so recruiting shouldn't drop off one bit.

 

[Hoboken Cuse]

A: 7.5%
B: 85.0%
C: 7.5%
D: 0.0%

The city of Syracuse and the lack of other activities during the winter is a key ingredient as to why this place is special. We have no pro sports to compete against. Look at Louisville, Lexington and Lawerence, do they look like exotic places to go college. All 4 places (if you include SU) have rabid fan bases that want results now. If you are an 18 year old recruit and attend one of these schools, your a BMOC before you step one foot on the court. Where else can you play in front of 35,000 fans and become a household name. If Trevor Cooney went to Seton Hall or Providence, no one on the east coast would know who he is or what he looked like.

 

[bballbeadle]

Without Jim Boeheim, we wouldn't have won 914 f**king games. Not 914.

A. 0%
B. 60%
C. 38%
D. 2%

 

[raf4488]

If you look at SU's performance over the past 4 years and compare with UNC, Duke, KU, UK- we are performing at that level.

 

[OttoMets]

I think "C" is more likely than "B" and given the number of posters on this board who respond to any criticism of Boeheim's coaching with "900" or "Hall of Fame," I'm surprised this isn't a more popular view.

If Boeheim's a 99th percentile kind of coach (which one could argue, with support from 900 and the Hall of Fame, each of which is a 99th-percentile kind of accomplishment), then how likely is it that we're going to replace him with someone who keeps us "at the same level in terms of national ranking," etc., much less improves our status?

Boeheim's excellent at what he does. He is not perfect and some of the criticism he receives is deserved. But he's excellent. And his replacement will be less so. The team's success is likely to mirror that decline in coaching ability.

 

[realorange]

A-10
B-60
C-30
D-5

 

[anomander]

I think "C" is more likely than "B" and given the number of posters on this board who respond to any criticism of Boeheim's coaching with "900" or "Hall of Fame," I'm surprised this isn't a more popular view.

If Boeheim's a 99th percentile kind of coach (which one could argue, with support from 900 and the Hall of Fame, each of which is a 99th-percentile kind of accomplishment), then how likely is it that we're going to replace him with someone who keeps us "at the same level in terms of national ranking," etc., much less improves our status?

Boeheim's excellent at what he does. He is not perfect and some of the criticism he receives is deserved. But he's excellent. And his replacement will be less so. The team's success is likely to mirror that decline in coaching ability.

i don't think many people would put JB in the 99th percentile of coaches. He is a great coach, but it's not like he is universally known as some great tactician. longevity has played a big part of Jim's stature. Now i am in no way saying he is not a great coach because he is, but he isn't the best. Put a guy like Brad Stevens, or Tom Izzo here, and they would do the same, if not better. There are a bunch of guys who I would assume we would have a shot at that could continue on the pace that Jim has set during his great career.

And if were not currently a top 5 PROGRAM, then who is?

Kentucky
Duke

No. Carolina (i guess)
Kansas (kinda)

We have been recruiting at, or above the level of everyone except Kentucky since 2003. We have multiple conference titles, and tournament titles in the same amount of years, in arguably the toughest conference since then. Who would be the schools ahead of us at the current time?

 

[Hoboken Cuse]

I think "C" is more likely than "B" and given the number of posters on this board who respond to any criticism of Boeheim's coaching with "900" or "Hall of Fame," I'm surprised this isn't a more popular view.

If Boeheim's a 99th percentile kind of coach (which one could argue, with support from 900 and the Hall of Fame, each of which is a 99th-percentile kind of accomplishment), then how likely is it that we're going to replace him with someone who keeps us "at the same level in terms of national ranking," etc., much less improves our status?

Boeheim's excellent at what he does. He is not perfect and some of the criticism he receives is deserved. But he's excellent. And his replacement will be less so. The team's success is likely to mirror that decline in coaching ability.

I will give Boeheim credit for being incredible consistent but I think the Dome / Big East and the advent of ESPN and college basketball on tv has alot to do with that. Having said that, the man is not a god; he is 132 - 135 vs. top 25 teams (49.8%). If you take away the 12 cupcakes at the begining of each season (37-0 vs. Colgate); what would his record look like. He is Lou Henson with a National Championship. He is a very good coach but he is not irreplacable.

 

[OttoMets]

i don't think many people would put JB in the 99th percentile of coaches. He is a great coach, but it's not like he is universally known as some great tactician. longevity has played a big part of Jim's stature. Now i am in no way saying he is not a great coach because he is, but he isn't the best. Put a guy like Brad Stevens, or Tom Izzo here, and they would do the same, if not better. There are a bunch of guys who I would assume we would have a shot at that could continue on the pace that Jim has set during his great career.

And if were not currently a top 5 PROGRAM, then who is?

Kentucky
Duke

No. Carolina (i guess)
Kansas (kinda)

We have been recruiting at, or above the level of everyone except Kentucky since 2003. We have multiple conference titles, and tournament titles in the same amount of years, in arguably the toughest conference since then. Who would be the schools ahead of us at the current time?

I bet Izzo would do the same, more or less. But I'd also probably call him a 99th-percentile guy. He doesn't have the win totals (as you said, Boeheim's got that whole longevity thing going for him) or the Hall (again, longevity), but he's a great coach. (Not sure I'd place Stevens on this level at this time.)

Trouble is, hiring is such a crapshoot. First, how do we identify the right guy? Second, can we get him?

As for top-five program, I dunno - these things are always in flux. But I wouldn't place Syracuse quite there, not now at least.

 

[OttoMets]

I will give Boeheim credit for being incredible consistent but I think the Dome / Big East and the advent of ESPN and college basketball on tv has alot to do with that. Having said that, the man is not a god; he is 132 - 135 vs. top 25 teams (49.8%). If you take away the 12 cupcakes at the begining of each season (37-0 vs. Colgate); what would his record look like. He is Lou Henson with a National Championship. He is a very good coach but he is not irreplacable.

Yeah, but everyone from Bobby Gonzalez to Lou Henson to Krzyzewski plays a lot of cupcakes. Some (this guy included) would argue that we play more of them, but what's that, one game a year? And if he were to have won half of those hypothetical non-conference games, he's still a borderline 900 win guy.

Agree that he's not irreplaceable, but getting that replacement right is so far from a sure thing.

 

[orange79]

Gross track record on replacing coaches doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. I hope they give the real task to some one else or a small committee.

Actually, other than He Who Shall Not Be Named, who would you consider a bad hire? Olympic sports have taken off, and as much as I hated the way FHCDM left, he lifted the program up and put HCSS in a position to succeed.

 

[Townie72]

Actually, other than He Who Shall Not Be Named, who would you consider a bad hire? Olympic sports have taken off, and as much as I hated the way FHCDM left, he lifted the program up and put HCSS in a position to succeed.

Actually I am exactly where you are ... except I didn't get bent out of shape when Marrone left. I Saw it just as business.

But that hire of "you know who" was so bad, it gives me a huge pause.

I don't care about the non-revenue sports.

 

[orange79]

Actually I am exactly where you are ... except I didn't get bent out of shape when Marrone left. I Saw it just as business.

But that hire of "you know who" was so bad, it gives me a huge pause.

I don't care about the non-revenue sports.

I get not caring about the non-rev sports, but you have to admit, they have taken off since TGD arrived and started making changes.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Boeheim is a great coach, he's not God.

 

[Townie72]

Boeheim is a great coach, he's not God.

SO you vote on the four alternatives is what?