SU after Boeheim

[IthacaMatt]

Funny I asked you to rank JB 1-10 on his performance this season and you never quite committed, but ok I will play..

A: 5 %
B: 45%
C: 45%
D: 5%

I believe we have the history unlike many schools. If the right moves were made by DGross we should be able to reach at a minimum option C which would be a disappointment. I think A is unlikely long term bless you name is Kentucky I think most programs will see dips at any point each decade albeit minimal I don't see Top 5 year over year without exception.

I think it's better than 50/50 that we remain about where we are now - once or twice a decade we get past the Sweet 16; we compete for conference championships regularly, but don't really dominate. I'd peg it as about 70/30 that we stay about where we are now. JB has underachieved and let opportunities slip away. That said, he's been a great coach, but a lot of it has been built on longevity - sustained excellence but not true dominance. With the Dome, the ACC and the Melo Center, there's no reason we should slip back into Wake or Maryland status. That would be like us turning into a Cincinnati in the Big East. We'll be better than that, unless we were to hire a true incompetent.

 

[NineOneSeven]

These are not meant to total 100%. It's what you think the percentage chance for A, B, C or D to happen.

Mind=Blown.

 

[Bayside44]

We have a can of worms on our hands with Boeheim and Hopkins. I don't want to bash JB at all but its far riskier keeping him around than moving onto Hopkins. I don't want to see what SU Basketball looks like with a team that has quit on JB (hasn't happened yet b/c he gets it and treats the kids like men and runs SU hoops like its an NBA team but it could with this high level of apathy we see from him publicly and having to field very very very young teams.)

Hopkins is a low risk transition (you are guaranteed recruiting at or near the current level and right now we are a national powerhouse and top 5 program and recruit like it.) Hopkins is a one time get out jail free card because he comes from the program and you get to replace a Hall of Fame coach and there isn't a drastic culture shock or change. You simply can't go wrong with Hopkins because you know he will bring in the recruits moving on to Hopkins really is the low risk move. The high risk move is JB staying with Hopkins leaving for another school and JB flat out "losing" a team. Add in some NCAA crap, decomitts, and transfers to one of the next couple years teams quitting on JB and our program could go up in flames. If that happens noone will want to commit to play for JB since they'll think he'll be retired before they get to campus.

It all comes down to recruits, we have a proven recruiter ready to be the head coach. You need an elite recruiter. Need to make the change, too risky to see what "bad" JB is like. JB has had a great last 5 years to go out on and has elevated his reputation to as high a place as it can be. Its a good time for him to move on IMO.

Nailed it.

 

[obliterata]

I am shocked at the high confidence that some have in the future of the SU basketball program post-Boeheim.

Of course if you have the negative view of JB’s capabilities and judgment that many on this forum appear to have, I guess it’s easy to be confident. After all, how hard will it be to replace this stubborn fool, who fails to recruit the right kind of players, doesn’t develop the players he has and frequently has the wrong players on the court. Shouldn’t be hard to replace a guy with this many failings.

Now I’m not sure what’s going to happen, so I thought it might be useful to lay out the range of possibilities and see what the forum thinks will happen by assigning PROBABILITIES to each. If you give a selection a “0%” it means that this has Zero chance of occurring. That it’s impossible. If you give something a 100% score, it means that there is zero chance it won’t happen.

Here’s the continuum:
A. The program takes off and moves up to be a Top 5 regular
B. The program stays at the same level in terms of National ranking, NCAA performance, etc. (This could include a transitional period in which the program is down slightly as the new coach puts in his system and gets his recruits in)
C. The program goes into a decline in which every few years we are in the Top 20. We become a Maryland or a Wake Forest.
D. The program goes into a serious decline and ends up as a Seton Hall.

My guess would be: A – 5%, B – 50%, C- 40%, D-5%. I could be talked into giving B a lower % and C a higher one.

A - 5%
B - 80%
C - 15%
D - 0%

I think post-Boeheim will be similar to pre-Boeheim, when Roy Danforth was the coach - in other words, no change. Danforth put up slightly better stats compared to Boeheim when you take into consideration RD took over a program coming off a losing season and JB took over a program in great shape. It took Danforth 2 years to have a winner - first season was a loser, second was .500 - with his winning percentage in his last 6 years being .751 which compares favorably to Boeheim's current .747. Additionally, RD made it past the Sweet Sixteen one time in those last 6 years which again is a little better than JB's 5 times in 36 years.

So, I'm expecting the next coach to put up similar numbers to Danforth and Boeheim although I wouldn't mind it if the next guy has a .700 winning percentage with 3 or 4 trips past the Sweet Sixteen every decade he's here.

 

[OHIORANGES]

A - 10% Unlikely with or without him, weather holding us back.
B - 25% We have the facilities and tradition so a good replacement should be easy. No offense to Hop but it needs to be a "Name" guy right away.
C - 35% More likely if above "Name" does not sign immediately.
D - 5% We'll continue to be good because we are SU.

Dude, what's the other 25%?

I'm A 5%; B 45%; C 45%; & D 5%

 

[SUbear]

A - 10% Unlikely with or without him, weather holding us back.
B - 25% We have the facilities and tradition so a good replacement should be easy. No offense to Hop but it needs to be a "Name" guy right away.
C - 35% More likely if above "Name" does not sign immediately.
D - 5% We'll continue to be good because we are SU.

No offense but your percentages don't add up to 100%.

 

[SUbear]

These are not meant to total 100%. It's what you think the percentage chance for A, B, C or D to happen.

You are given four options, so yes if you give a percentage for each option you must be at 100% or your percentages are meaningless. Basic statistics and math.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

But if Boeheim keeps floundering...

Boeheim needs to be facing his legacy and realizing that he can ruin much of it if he drags down the program and then leaves it struggling.

Coach and program are floundering and Boeheim is dragging down the program? Because of a 5-7 stretch this season?[/quote]

Two #1 seeds and 2 #3 seeds in last four seasons.
Two Big East regular season championships.
An elite eight (while missing a key player); two sweet sixteens (one of which was missing another key player);
152 wins and 24 losses;
Top recruiting classes each season...

That is floundering? Really? I mean, seriously?

 

[realorange]

You are given four options, so yes if you give a percentage for each option you must be at 100% or your percentages are meaningless. Basic statistics and math.

Yeah, I can see that now. I was looking at each as a stand alone and missed the transitional disclaimer.

 

[ForeverOrange]

Looking at the job Kevin Ollie is doing for Uconn. I HOPE we can have similar success, just based on his first season, but we should all be following how their transition is going because it pretty closely mirrors how ours is expected to go, minus being suspended from the NCAA and Big East (ACC) tournament upon his departure. I think it's important to remember, whether your on the side of your ready for him to leave or you hope he never leaves and dies in the middle of coaching. The reality is, his time to depart is coming. With that being said:

A - 10%
B - 65%
C- 20%
D- 5%

 

[Flora'cuse]

SU is an elite program (Thanks to JB, Shaw and others) and many, many great coaches would be knocking our doors down to get here, so remain calm, all is well.

 

[Guinness]

The Syracuse basketball fan base is too large for the program to become a Seton Hall. But if Boeheim keeps floundering and then is replaced by somebody not up to the task, then it could become what we saw with Maryland.

Boeheim needs to be facing his legacy and realizing that he can ruin much of it if he drags down the program and then leaves it struggling. Bobby Bowden put FSU football in a big hole because he coached about 5 years too long. Gross needs to be thinking about the future changes and preparing to make the right hire.

Bowden is a really good example. So many of the FSU fans (t shirt fans in particular) are blaming the ACC for their lack of success recently while totally ignoring the fact that maybe the reason the program was so great was the once in a life time kind of coach. That just possibly they won't get back to where they were when Bobby was at his best.

This is the reality we face trying to replace JB. I don't ever see us falling entirely off the map nor do I see us stepping up even higher on a consistent basis. I would say somewhere between B and C is were we settle.

A - 10%
B - 45%
C- 45%
D- 0%

 

[Townie72]

These are not meant to total 100%. It's what you think the percentage chance for A, B, C or D to happen.

Actually it is. I'm the author of this little exercise.

I think what you are saying is that the four alternatives shown aren't the only possible outcomes. But for the purpose of this they are.

 

[rstone7727]

Coach and program are floundering and Boeheim is dragging down the program? Because of a 5-7 stretch this season?

That is floundering? Really? I mean, seriously?[/quote]

Good point, some of these people need to ask themselves what the reason was for Georgetown fans to storm the court. hint: because they just beat SU.

 

[orangecuse]

A - 1%
B - 80%
C - 18%
D - 1%

 

[HoustonCuse]

The more interesting question, which has been alluded to by myself and others in this thread is: what is the outlook for this program if JB stays and Hop leaves. I think Hopkins is the glue that has been holding the whole house of cards together for some time now. He's the one feeding the beast with top players and he's the one that has been keeping said players sane and motivated in the face of much adversity and curious management from the big boss over these past 3 years.

This is a stretch with several assumptions, but if you look at the collapse of this team over the past two weeks, it coincides very closely with the threat that Hopkins may be bailing out.

 

[rosconey]

The more interesting question, which has been alluded to by myself and others in this thread is: what is the outlook for this program if JB stays and Hop leaves. I think Hopkins is the glue that has been holding the whole house of cards together for some time now. He's the one feeding the beast with top players and he's the one that has been keeping said players sane and motivated in the face of much adversity and curious management from the big boss over these past 3 years.

This is a stretch with several assumptions, but if you look at the collapse of this team over the past two weeks, it coincides very closely with the threat that Hopkins may be bailing out.

go back thru jimmy history-we have hadplenty of years the team went south at the end of the season- this is no anomaly -

and im not gonna worry about the program post jb- dome mello center ect will keep us as a destination program

 

[Townie72]

The more interesting question, which has been alluded to by myself and others in this thread is: what is the outlook for this program if JB stays and Hop leaves. I think Hopkins is the glue that has been holding the whole house of cards together for some time now. He's the one feeding the beast with top players and he's the one that has been keeping said players sane and motivated in the face of much adversity and curious management from the big boss over these past 3 years.

This is a stretch with several assumptions, but if you look at the collapse of this team over the past two weeks, it coincides very closely with the threat that Hopkins may be bailing out.

"House of Cards"? Hopkins as the glue that holds the thing together?

The recent swoon as a product of rumors of Hopkins potentially leaving?

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. And, who knows, maybe you are right.

But, I'd say this opinion is way outside of mainstream thought.

 

[Quazzum69]

I think its funny that everyone is so hard on JB now.

... Do we see Roy Williams and Izzo getting canned after NC and Michigan state after they had bad years recently? Duke was one and out last year in march, was K fired? imo ITS PATHETIC. Just wanted to vent before some moron pulls the trigger against JB. Im sure there are other JB supporters on this board.

JB and the rest of Syracuse's fans wish we had the results of K, Izzo and Ol' Roy. Are you kidding me about K? He's been to more championship games than Boeheim's been to elite eights. Seven final fours in a nine year stretch? Unreal. Roy Williams may piss you off, but his teams have achieved way more than Boeheim's. Izzo has performed way more in the NCAA tournament with far less than Boeheim, too.

Boeheim is great, but certainly not irreplaceable. Unfortunately, Syracuse basketball has become completely confounded with Jim Boeheim as coach, that is it is really hard to separate the effects of Boeheim from the effects of the fans, the city, the program as a whole. I'll take Roy, Izzo, K, Self, Calipari, Donovan, (Calhoun if he was younger), Pitino any day of the week.

Unless you have a truly gifted coach like K, you are kind of stunting yourself as an elite program unless you go out and get the market's best available coach, which Syracuse has not done.

 

[HakAttack]

Since 2000, our 2003 NC, (and obviously Melo) has been more integral to the long term success of this program than JB, IMO.

Without Melo, there is no NC.

Without the NC, there is no uptick in recruiting to get Burger Boys.

Without Melo, there is no gleaming new basketball facility.

So yeah, I'd say that Melo's been more important to this program within the last decade than JB has been.

 

[cpatrocks]

A) 95%
B) 99%
C) -27%
D) -167%

 

[TBCuse11]

A-10
B-60
C-30
D-5

This is about what i think as well. Slight tweak would be adding your 5% from D and putting it to B or C. There is ZERO chance that we fall of the map. Zero. This program is bigger than a coach at this point.

 

[TBCuse11]

Since 2000, our 2003 NC, (and obviously Melo) has been more integral to the long term success of this program than JB, IMO.

Without Melo, there is no NC.

Without the NC, there is no uptick in recruiting to get Burger Boys.

Without Melo, there is no gleaming new basketball facility.

So yeah, I'd say that Melo's been more important to this program within the last decade than JB has been.

Well put. Melo is the LARGE majority of the reason that our program is forever changed for the better. It baffles me how some people just dont get it. Melo put us on the map for the long haul (thru his play and donations)

 

[orangenirvana]

A. The program takes off and moves up to be a Top 5 regular
B. The program stays at the same level in terms of National ranking, NCAA performance, etc. (This could include a transitional period in which the program is down slightly as the new coach puts in his system and gets his recruits in)
C. The program goes into a decline in which every few years we are in the Top 20. We become a Maryland or a Wake Forest.
D. The program goes into a serious decline and ends up as a Seton Hall.

A. 5%
B. 30%
C. 50%
D. 15%

Great thread, btw.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

JB and the rest of Syracuse's fans wish we had the results of K, Izzo and Ol' Roy. Are you kidding me about K? He's been to more championship games than Boeheim's been to elite eights. Seven final fours in a nine year stretch? Unreal. Roy Williams may piss you off, but his teams have achieved way more than Boeheim's. Izzo has performed way more in the NCAA tournament with far less than Boeheim, too.

That's simply not true, especially when you include that statement about Izzo immediately after it. Roy has been at two schools that actually recruit themselves and only has one more NC than JB. And all the while with far more talent. JB is better than Roy-boy. I think K and Izzo are better in-game coaches, but no way can you say Roy Williams is better.