SU after Boeheim

[anomander]

As for top-five program, I dunno - these things are always in flux. But I wouldn't place Syracuse quite there, not now at least.

this isn't trying to be argumentative, but just out of curiosity what 5 teams would you have ahead of syracuse? i would think using the last 10 years to determine a programs current standing would be pretty fair.

 

[rstone7727]

A - 10% Unlikely with or without him, weather holding us back.
B - 25% We have the facilities and tradition so a good replacement should be easy. No offense to Hop but it needs to be a "Name" guy right away.
C - 35% More likely if above "Name" does not sign immediately.
D - 5% We'll continue to be good because we are SU.

 

[EastCoast2]

If Hop is at the helm with Autry and maybe another solid recruiter added to the staff, I really, really, really like our chances to be a consistent top 10 team. We'll have the entire Northeast locked up and start knocking on the DMV door.

I know we've had success with DMV, but not as much as we could. What if we got one of Rudy Gay/Michael Beasley/Kevin Durant? Where would the program be right now?

 

[Hoboken Cuse]

A - 10% Unlikely with or without him, weather holding us back.
B - 25% We have the facilities and tradition so a good replacement should be easy. No offense to Hop but it needs to be a "Name" guy right away.
C - 35% More likely if above "Name" does not sign immediately.
D - 5% We'll continue to be good because we are SU.

Where does your other 15% go? The only way we become a D is or C (in the new ACC) is if were hit with a harsh penalty from the NCAA.

 

[PoppyHart]

The right hire can take the program to new highs. Unfortunately, the flip side is also true.

 

[Townie72]

The right hire can take the program to new highs. Unfortunately, the flip side is also true.

It's unclear from your answer as to what you think the probabilities of A, B, C and D are.

 

[orangefan13]

I think its funny that everyone is so hard on JB now.

Where was everyone in 10-11? That team beat a hobbled gtown and nova team that were mising their best guard on the road to get a 3 seed and in truth they probably deserved a 4.

Southerland and Triche aren't the consistant leaders we need them to be. They have been streaky their entire four years here. Dion and Fab are gone they jumped early. Keita has no offense and Fair and Mike might jump this year leaving one senior. Sure blame JB for grabbing cooney and Dajuan who will probably be really good talent one day. Im sure its not hipicritical of us that this entire board said they would average 10 plus points for us this year. It was coach B that got us Gbinije our only savior next year.

JB just gave us two seasons where we were one of the top two teams two out of the last 4 seasons.

Were all entitled to a imo. THIS GETTING MAD AT JB STUFF IS GARBAGE. The team is just bad. JB spoils us and we have the quickest trigger to get him out the door as we possibly can after one bad season really? Do we see Roy Williams and Izzo getting canned after NC and Michigan state after they had bad years recently? Duke was one and out last year in march, was K fired? imo ITS PATHETIC. Just wanted to vent before some moron pulls the trigger against JB. Im sure there are other JB supporters on this board.

 

[MCC]

A-10
B-60
C-30
D-5

A - 10% Unlikely with or without him, weather holding us back.
B - 25% We have the facilities and tradition so a good replacement should be easy. No offense to Hop but it needs to be a "Name" guy right away.
C - 35% More likely if above "Name" does not sign immediately.
D - 5% We'll continue to be good because we are SU.

Both of these answers are statistilicious. Rstone's however takes the cake (well, at least 3/4 of it).

 

[MCC]

Where does your other 15% go? The only way we become a D is or C (in the new ACC) is if were hit with a harsh penalty from the NCAA.

LOL, I love it! Better still!

 

[shermstheman]

The Syracuse basketball fan base is too large for the program to become a Seton Hall. But if Boeheim keeps floundering and then is replaced by somebody not up to the task, then it could become what we saw with Maryland.

Boeheim needs to be facing his legacy and realizing that he can ruin much of it if he drags down the program and then leaves it struggling. Bobby Bowden put FSU football in a big hole because he coached about 5 years too long. Gross needs to be thinking about the future changes and preparing to make the right hire.

Floundering?? Really??? An AO injury away from a probable NC. A stupid Fab Melo away from at least a final 4. Stud recruiting classes coming in annually. I'll take floundering like that! To compare JB, who has had some of his best teams in the last 3 years to Bobby Bowden is ludicrous. Wow.

 

[ORRange]

A-30%
B-65%
C-4%
D-1%

 

[rstone7727]

Both of these answers are statistilicious. Rstone's however takes the cake (well, at least 3/4 of it).

HaHa, I thought the Op wanted the % chance for each scenario not the total. In that case:

A - 10%
B - 35%
C - 50%
D - 5%

 

[HoustonCuse]

I am shocked at the high confidence that some have in the future of the SU basketball program post-Boeheim.

Of course if you have the negative view of JB’s capabilities and judgment that many on this forum appear to have, I guess it’s easy to be confident. After all, how hard will it be to replace this stubborn fool, who fails to recruit the right kind of players, doesn’t develop the players he has and frequently has the wrong players on the court. Shouldn’t be hard to replace a guy with this many failings.

Now I’m not sure what’s going to happen, so I thought it might be useful to lay out the range of possibilities and see what the forum thinks will happen by assigning PROBABILITIES to each. If you give a selection a “0%” it means that this has Zero chance of occurring. That it’s impossible. If you give something a 100% score, it means that there is zero chance it won’t happen.

Here’s the continuum:
A. The program takes off and moves up to be a Top 5 regular
B. The program stays at the same level in terms of National ranking, NCAA performance, etc. (This could include a transitional period in which the program is down slightly as the new coach puts in his system and gets his recruits in)
C. The program goes into a decline in which every few years we are in the Top 20. We become a Maryland or a Wake Forest.
D. The program goes into a serious decline and ends up as a Seton Hall.

My guess would be: A – 5%, B – 50%, C- 40%, D-5%. I could be talked into giving B a lower % and C a higher one.

But Townie, look at your numbers here. You are saying that the "field" (made up of any unnamed coach they can think to bring in and pay rock bottom dollar to) has a 55% chance of at least equaling the performance of a HOF coach. It looks like you may be the optimistic one.

I agree that we don't know what will happen and whatever it is could be bad, but the fact is JB WILL retire. Maybe this year, maybe next, or the year after. People being unhappy now doesn't have a bearing on this fact. So anyone who comes back to say "I told you so" in 5 years if the program has hit the skids is sort of shouting at windmills. I've come to believe that we have the best chance of option B with Hopkins taking over and that looks to be under threat right now. The fact that it is under threat because JB appears to want to keep phoning it in is disappointing. (I say phoning it in based on his recent performance, demeanor, and statements such as "I just want to go golfing" or whatever).

 

[NineOneSeven]

Boeheim is a great coach, he's not God.

A) 0%
B) 0%
C) 0%
D) 90%
E: Marsh takes us to the promised land one sixer at a time) 50%

I'm on my rstone math.

 

[stuckinbig11]

A 10%
B 90%

 

[Shaggy]

I bet Izzo would do the same, more or less. But I'd also probably call him a 99th-percentile guy. He doesn't have the win totals (as you said, Boeheim's got that whole longevity thing going for him) or the Hall (again, longevity), but he's a great coach. (Not sure I'd place Stevens on this level at this time.)

Trouble is, hiring is such a crapshoot. First, how do we identify the right guy? Second, can we get him?

As for top-five program, I dunno - these things are always in flux. But I wouldn't place Syracuse quite there, not now at least.

Izzo and Stevens are at the highest level in my opinion. If you guys had any clue the amount of thought process that Stevens puts into his system. He is a magician and the stuff he learns and does with statistics is way beyond what any of us can comprehend. And Izzo, man I'd just want to play for him, he makes kids believe.

 

[rstone7727]

Where does your other 15% go? The only way we become a D is or C (in the new ACC) is if were hit with a harsh penalty from the NCAA.

Hire the wrong guy.. Things can happen, Ask the football side what happened when Robinson replaced Pasqualoni.

 

[Knicks411]

I think "C" is more likely than "B" and given the number of posters on this board who respond to any criticism of Boeheim's coaching with "900" or "Hall of Fame," I'm surprised this isn't a more popular view.

If Boeheim's a 99th percentile kind of coach (which one could argue, with support from 900 and the Hall of Fame, each of which is a 99th-percentile kind of accomplishment), then how likely is it that we're going to replace him with someone who keeps us "at the same level in terms of national ranking," etc., much less improves our status?

Boeheim's excellent at what he does. He is not perfect and some of the criticism he receives is deserved. But he's excellent. And his replacement will be less so. The team's success is likely to mirror that decline in coaching ability.

Yeah I pretty much agree with all of this. I'm not one of the blind JB defenders but he's pretty clearly one of the 10-15 best coaches in the history of the game. The odds that his replacement, or the replacement's replacement, etc are in his league is very low.

 

[Toga]

Hire the wrong guy.. Things can happen, Ask the football side what happened when X replaced Pasqualoni.

Fixed

 

[AluminNV]

But Townie, look at your numbers here. You are saying that the "field" (made up of any unnamed coach they can think to bring in and pay rock bottom dollar to) has a 55% chance of at least equaling the performance of a HOF coach. It looks like you may be the optimistic one.

I agree that we don't know what will happen and whatever it is could be bad, but the fact is JB WILL retire. Maybe this year, maybe next, or the year after. People being unhappy now doesn't have a bearing on this fact. So anyone who comes back to say "I told you so" in 5 years if the program has hit the skids is sort of shouting at windmills. I've come to believe that we have the best chance of option B with Hopkins taking over and that looks to be under threat right now. The fact that it is under threat because JB appears to want to keep phoning it in is disappointing. (I say phoning it in based on his recent performance, demeanor, and statements such as "I just want to go golfing" or whatever).

We have a can of worms on our hands with Boeheim and Hopkins. I don't want to bash JB at all but its far riskier keeping him around than moving onto Hopkins. I don't want to see what SU Basketball looks like with a team that has quit on JB (hasn't happened yet b/c he gets it and treats the kids like men and runs SU hoops like its an NBA team but it could with this high level of apathy we see from him publicly and having to field very very very young teams.)

Hopkins is a low risk transition (you are guaranteed recruiting at or near the current level and right now we are a national powerhouse and top 5 program and recruit like it.) Hopkins is a one time get out jail free card because he comes from the program and you get to replace a Hall of Fame coach and there isn't a drastic culture shock or change. You simply can't go wrong with Hopkins because you know he will bring in the recruits moving on to Hopkins really is the low risk move. The high risk move is JB staying with Hopkins leaving for another school and JB flat out "losing" a team. Add in some NCAA crap, decomitts, and transfers to one of the next couple years teams quitting on JB and our program could go up in flames. If that happens noone will want to commit to play for JB since they'll think he'll be retired before they get to campus.

It all comes down to recruits, we have a proven recruiter ready to be the head coach. You need an elite recruiter. Need to make the change, too risky to see what "bad" JB is like. JB has had a great last 5 years to go out on and has elevated his reputation to as high a place as it can be. Its a good time for him to move on IMO.

 

[Hoboken Cuse]

Fixed

I was just pointing out that his math does not add up to 100%.

 

[Zelda Zonk]

My guess would be: A – 5%, B – 50%, C- 40%, D-5%. I could be talked into giving B a lower % and C a higher one.

B: 50% / A: 40% / C: 10%
The Dome, Carmelo, a good choice for the replacement, and our history combine to ensure we don't end up in C or D territory.

What we do have to be careful about is longevity. Can't afford to hire someone who won't be in it for the long haul. One transition every 15-30 years is key.

I also think you're misstating the opinions of many on the board. A "negative view of JB's capabilities and judgment" may not be accurate. "Negative," meaning sub-par? I don't think so. If anything, there's a backlash against the hype and against the rabid loyalists/apologists. Does anyone really believe he's a below average coach? More likely, it's that he's just not at the level of the ink, and that the number of wins isn't indicative of his abilities. If you can entertain such a thing. It's a Lenny Wilkins thing. He's got a jillion wins but no one discusses him as a "great" coach.

I'd even bet the 'backlash' wouldn't be so great if there were a smaller chasm between the two 'camps' within the fandom.

I'm kinda "shocked" that there is not more optimism about the post-JB era. JB wasn't a pick made with great conviction. If we 'got lucky' there, why can't we find equal fortune with a more targeted and resource-laden choice?

 

[realorange]

Both of these answers are statistilicious. Rstone's however takes the cake (well, at least 3/4 of it).

These are not meant to total 100%. It's what you think the percentage chance for A, B, C or D to happen.

 

[cuseinseattle]

I am shocked at the high confidence that some have in the future of the SU basketball program post-Boeheim.

Of course if you have the negative view of JB’s capabilities and judgment that many on this forum appear to have, I guess it’s easy to be confident. After all, how hard will it be to replace this stubborn fool, who fails to recruit the right kind of players, doesn’t develop the players he has and frequently has the wrong players on the court. Shouldn’t be hard to replace a guy with this many failings.

Now I’m not sure what’s going to happen, so I thought it might be useful to lay out the range of possibilities and see what the forum thinks will happen by assigning PROBABILITIES to each. If you give a selection a “0%” it means that this has Zero chance of occurring. That it’s impossible. If you give something a 100% score, it means that there is zero chance it won’t happen.

Here’s the continuum:
A. The program takes off and moves up to be a Top 5 regular
B. The program stays at the same level in terms of National ranking, NCAA performance, etc. (This could include a transitional period in which the program is down slightly as the new coach puts in his system and gets his recruits in)
C. The program goes into a decline in which every few years we are in the Top 20. We become a Maryland or a Wake Forest.
D. The program goes into a serious decline and ends up as a Seton Hall.

My guess would be: A – 5%, B – 50%, C- 40%, D-5%. I could be talked into giving B a lower % and C a higher one.

A.0%
B.40%
C.60%
D.0%

I don't think D is likely and I think A and B are the same since we have been top 5 the last 5 years in my opinion. I can see us becoming Maryland but not quite that bad. I don't think the transition from the good guy assistant to the coach will be quite as smooth as some people think for Hop.

 

[Opus]

A: .1% (Because there is always a chance I suppose)

B: 55% (This depends on the shape of the program when he leaves. With his track record you would think it would be 'as is')

C 35% (I would think this would be temp. The hire after this will determine B or D)

D: 9.9% (Guess we could always get a GRob)