SU bowl projections

[David332]

Also isn’t the Cotton still very much an option? I feel like we’re all forgetting about that. We have two options for a NY6, right?

 

[690West]

Also isn’t the Cotton still very much an option? I feel like we’re all forgetting about that. We have two options for a NY6, right?

Good call DC, the cotton bowl is technically still in play.

2023 ACC Bowl Affiliations - Atlantic Coast Conference

Bowl Game Game Date Game Time (ET) Network Matchup RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl Thurs., Dec. 21, 2023 8:00 p.m. ESPN Syracuse

theacc.com

 

[blue&orange]

This is taken from a post Hokie Mark made on his excellent web site. The info is from last year but I think is pretty much the same for this season.

Bowl	Location	Payout
Orange	Miami	6.0 M
Outback (Reliaquest)	Tampa	6.4 M
Gator	Jacksonville	5.3 M
Cheez-It	Orlando	6.1 M
Holiday	San Diego	6.5 M
Sun	El Paso	4.5 M
Pinstripe	Bronx	4.4 M
Military	Annapolis	2.0 M

I believe the ACC takes all the bowl money, puts it in a pot, they divvies it out to all conference members, weighted by the contribution each school made to the bowl fund.

So we aren't looking at a 4 million dollar difference in Orange vs Military, but some bowls pay a lot more than others do.

I don't think the payout will be a big factor in where SU ends up but it will be a small factor.

In the end, I think this becomes a situation where the programs and the bowls participate in who gets paired where.

Surely we would strongly prefer to not play in Boston or NYC.

Thinking we would prefer not to repeat the Cheez-It experience but it was 4 years ago and it was by all accounts a very good experience for the bowl and the SU fan base. So it could happen.

The ACC only gets a crack at the Reliaquest if a B1G team is chosen as the ACC opponent for the Orange. I see a lot of predictions that have an ACC team playing a B1G team in the Orange. This little clause could play a huge role in determining where Syracuse ends up.

Wake has an easier schedule than we do, and gets to play us at their stadium. They have to be odds on favorites to take the Orange and the way the agreement is set up, the Orange has to take their small fanbase if they finish second. The Orange has no veto power here.

If per chance Syracuse finishes ahead of Wake, I could see Wake drop all the way down to something like the Duke Mayo bowl because of their small fan base. Doesn't look likely though.

So how is this all going to break out?

Let's assume Clemson wins out and makes the playoffs.

SU is in competition with Wake, UNC and NC State for what is left.

Let's assume Wake gets the Orange.

Since 2015, the Gator has an SEC program featured every season. The other spot is shared between the ACC and the B1G. Every conference is supposed to get a slot 3 times in a given 6 year period.

I think a new 6 year period started with the 1/2/2021 game. So far the ACC has played in the Gator both years. I would think it likely the Gator will pick a B1G team this year so they have the option of picking an attractive ACC team once in the next 3 years.

So I don't see an ACC team getting the Gator, period.

If they do pick a team, NC State has played in the Gator 2 of the past 3 years. With their relative weak record, I think this is off the board for them. They might want to play the trigger on a 2 loss UNC or Syracuse but it looks unlikely either team will only finish with 2 losses. Just don't see this happening.

If the B1G does land a team in the Orange, I think the Reliaquest is the best landing spot for us. We would have to beat out UNC and NC State for this. Don't really see anyone else in the running. Maybe FSU if they catch fire after this 3 game losing streak.

Here is my forecast for the ACC big boy bowl contenders team by team:

Wake Forest is 8-1 and have the following games left:

@UL (not as easy as once thought; UL seems to be getting better)
@ NC State
UNC
Syracuse
@Duke (still not a gimme)

I am going to assume their experience and the presence of Sam Hartman is enough to get them through these games without a loss. 11-1. The Orange Bowl is theirs.

UNC is 6-1. They have the following games left:

Pitt
@UVa
@Wake
GT
NC State

I think they lose to Wake for sure. They might win all the other games though. NC State has a really good defense but can they score enough to beat the Tar Heels? UNC has to be heavy favorites to get to the ACC title game where they will be destroyed by Clemson (thank God no more divisions to allow undeserving teams to play in conference championship games after this).

So I have them finishing 10-3.

Syracuse is also 6-1. Here is who we have left:

ND
@Pitt
FSU
@Wake
@BC

I struggle to pick these games. With Sean Tucker's health a question mark, I really worry about our offense and if Darton is out for the season, or even a couple of games, I am worried about our ability to stop the run the rest of the year.

I think it is realistic to expect a loss at Wake and a loss somewhere else on the schedule. That gets us to 9-3.

NC State is 5-2. Here is what they have left:

VT
Wake
BC
@UL
@UNC

I think they lose to Wake at home and UNC on the road. Probably UL as well. So they finish 8-4 or 7-5. Not in consideration for the top ACC bowls.

Notre Dame is 4-3. Here is who they have left:

syracuse
Clemson
@Navy
BC
@USC

I think they end up losing 3 of these (SU, Clemson and USC). I see them ending up 6-6. My understanding is that they cannot be picked ahead of an ACC team for an ACC bowl unless they are within 1 win of that ACC team. This is why beating them head to head is so important. If they beat us, it is possible they could end up 8-4 and take a bid from us. We need to root for ND to continue to lose.

Pitt is 4-3. Here is what they have left:

@UNC
Syracuse
@UVa
Duke
@UM

I think they lose to UNC, Syracuse and win the rest. 7-5 regular season. Not in consideration for the top ACC bowls.

It will be interesting to see what happens if UNC finishes 10-3 and we finish 9-3. And if the Reliaquest has to take an ACC team or not.

Assuming the forecasted records are right, this is what I think is the worst case:

The Orange takes Wake.

The Orange does not take a B1G team and the Reliaquest does not have to take an ACC team.

The Gator takes UNC.

The Cheez-It takes Syracuse.

Or vice versa.

Don't really care about the other teams or bowls. At this point, if we can finish 9-3, I think we are pretty much locked into a Florida bowl. The most likely ones are the Cheez-It and the Gator, but the Reliaquest or the Orange are also still in play.

If we drop to 8-4 or 7-5, our chances of playing in Florida drop drastically.

I would agree that 9-3 probably puts us in Florida. The holiday bowl will take an 8 or 9 win ACC team so that is in play also. What I am wondering about the most is what happens to an 8-4 Syracuse? My guess is the Sun Bowl. But I see the Pinstripe at 8-4 as an option even if that would be disappointing. I don’t really see us going to Charlotte bc of local options for that bowl. If we drop to 6-2 I can see projections moving us out of Florida and into the Sun/Pinstripe bowls.

 

[690West]

Last week they had us in the Fenway bowl. Maybe they consider that bowl to be #4 in the ACC list since it’s new?

Eiiew!! Fenway bowl is December 17th at 11:00am. Might as well kick me in the nuts and steal my girlfriend

 

[sutomcat]

Good call DC, the cotton bowl is technically still in play.

2023 ACC Bowl Affiliations - Atlantic Coast Conference

Bowl Game Game Date Game Time (ET) Network Matchup RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl Thurs., Dec. 21, 2023 8:00 p.m. ESPN Syracuse

theacc.com

I think you need to be in the top 12 to be considered for the Cotton. Might be able to get away with being ranked 13th or 14th.

Bowl Selection Process

Bowl Selection Process

www.secsports.com

I agree we are technically in play for this bowl. But we would have to run the table to be considered. That would probably get us ranked high enough in the CFP ratings.

If we did run the table, I think we would still take the Orange Bowl.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[David332]

I think you need to be in the top 12 to be considered for the Cotton. Might be able to get away with being ranked 13th or 14th.

Bowl Selection Process

Bowl Selection Process

www.secsports.com

I agree we are technically in play for this bowl. But we would have to run the table to be considered. That would probably get us ranked high enough in the CFP ratings.

If we did run the table, I think we would still take the Orange Bowl.

We would have to look at recent non playoff Cotton bowls but I suspect a 10-2 team could still be in play depending on how the rest of the top 25 shakes out. As of today, both the Orange and the Cotton are in play.

 

[GoSU96]

Anything but NYC, Boston, or El Paso.

 

[690West]

Anything but NYC, Boston, or El Paso.

Or Annapolis in December. Yuck

 

[Hokie Mark]

This is taken from a post Hokie Mark made on his excellent web site. The info is from last year but I think is pretty much the same for this season.

Bowl	Location	Payout
Orange	Miami	6.0 M
Outback (Reliaquest)	Tampa	6.4 M
Gator	Jacksonville	5.3 M
Cheez-It	Orlando	6.1 M
Holiday	San Diego	6.5 M
Sun	El Paso	4.5 M
Pinstripe	Bronx	4.4 M
Military	Annapolis	2.0 M

I believe the ACC takes all the bowl money, puts it in a pot, they divvies it out to all conference members, weighted by the contribution each school made to the bowl fund.

So we aren't looking at a 4 million dollar difference in Orange vs Military, but some bowls pay a lot more than others do.

I don't think the payout will be a big factor in where SU ends up but it will be a small factor.

In the end, I think this becomes a situation where the programs and the bowls participate in who gets paired where.

Surely we would strongly prefer to not play in Boston or NYC.

Thinking we would prefer not to repeat the Cheez-It experience but it was 4 years ago and it was by all accounts a very good experience for the bowl and the SU fan base. So it could happen.

The ACC only gets a crack at the Reliaquest if a B1G team is chosen as the ACC opponent for the Orange. I see a lot of predictions that have an ACC team playing a B1G team in the Orange. This little clause could play a huge role in determining where Syracuse ends up.

Wake has an easier schedule than we do, and gets to play us at their stadium. They have to be odds on favorites to take the Orange and the way the agreement is set up, the Orange has to take their small fanbase if they finish second. The Orange has no veto power here.

If per chance Syracuse finishes ahead of Wake, I could see Wake drop all the way down to something like the Duke Mayo bowl because of their small fan base. Doesn't look likely though.

So how is this all going to break out?

Let's assume Clemson wins out and makes the playoffs.

SU is in competition with Wake, UNC and NC State for what is left.

Let's assume Wake gets the Orange.

Since 2015, the Gator has an SEC program featured every season. The other spot is shared between the ACC and the B1G. Every conference is supposed to get a slot 3 times in a given 6 year period.

I think a new 6 year period started with the 1/2/2021 game. So far the ACC has played in the Gator both years. I would think it likely the Gator will pick a B1G team this year so they have the option of picking an attractive ACC team once in the next 3 years.

So I don't see an ACC team getting the Gator, period.

If they do pick a team, NC State has played in the Gator 2 of the past 3 years. With their relative weak record, I think this is off the board for them. They might want to play the trigger on a 2 loss UNC or Syracuse but it looks unlikely either team will only finish with 2 losses. Just don't see this happening.

If the B1G does land a team in the Orange, I think the Reliaquest is the best landing spot for us. We would have to beat out UNC and NC State for this. Don't really see anyone else in the running. Maybe FSU if they catch fire after this 3 game losing streak.

Here is my forecast for the ACC big boy bowl contenders team by team:

Wake Forest is 8-1 and have the following games left:

@UL (not as easy as once thought; UL seems to be getting better)
@ NC State
UNC
Syracuse
@Duke (still not a gimme)

I am going to assume their experience and the presence of Sam Hartman is enough to get them through these games without a loss. 11-1. The Orange Bowl is theirs.

UNC is 6-1. They have the following games left:

Pitt
@UVa
@Wake
GT
NC State

I think they lose to Wake for sure. They might win all the other games though. NC State has a really good defense but can they score enough to beat the Tar Heels? UNC has to be heavy favorites to get to the ACC title game where they will be destroyed by Clemson (thank God no more divisions to allow undeserving teams to play in conference championship games after this).

So I have them finishing 10-3.

Syracuse is also 6-1. Here is who we have left:

ND
@Pitt
FSU
@Wake
@BC

I struggle to pick these games. With Sean Tucker's health a question mark, I really worry about our offense and if Darton is out for the season, or even a couple of games, I am worried about our ability to stop the run the rest of the year.

I think it is realistic to expect a loss at Wake and a loss somewhere else on the schedule. That gets us to 9-3.

NC State is 5-2. Here is what they have left:

VT
Wake
BC
@UL
@UNC

I think they lose to Wake at home and UNC on the road. Probably UL as well. So they finish 8-4 or 7-5. Not in consideration for the top ACC bowls.

Notre Dame is 4-3. Here is who they have left:

syracuse
Clemson
@Navy
BC
@USC

I think they end up losing 3 of these (SU, Clemson and USC). I see them ending up 6-6. My understanding is that they cannot be picked ahead of an ACC team for an ACC bowl unless they are within 1 win of that ACC team. This is why beating them head to head is so important. If they beat us, it is possible they could end up 8-4 and take a bid from us. We need to root for ND to continue to lose.

Pitt is 4-3. Here is what they have left:

@UNC
Syracuse
@UVa
Duke
@UM

I think they lose to UNC, Syracuse and win the rest. 7-5 regular season. Not in consideration for the top ACC bowls.

It will be interesting to see what happens if UNC finishes 10-3 and we finish 9-3. And if the Reliaquest has to take an ACC team or not.

Assuming the forecasted records are right, this is what I think is the worst case:

The Orange takes Wake.

The Orange does not take a B1G team and the Reliaquest does not have to take an ACC team.

The Gator takes UNC.

The Cheez-It takes Syracuse.

Or vice versa.

Don't really care about the other teams or bowls. At this point, if we can finish 9-3, I think we are pretty much locked into a Florida bowl. The most likely ones are the Cheez-It and the Gator, but the Reliaquest or the Orange are also still in play.

If we drop to 8-4 or 7-5, our chances of playing in Florida drop drastically.

I'm pretty sure the highest-ranked available ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl if the ACC champ is in the playoffs

Also, the ACC no longer alternates Gator/Music City - it's Gator every year (B1G gets the Music City)

Real good chance Syracuse plays in a Florida bowl game, or maybe the Holiday Bowl in San Diego? Too good for the Pinstripe or Fenway Bowls.

 

[djorange1989]

I'm pretty sure the highest-ranked available ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl if the ACC champ is in the playoffs

Also, the ACC no longer alternates Gator/Music City - it's Gator every year (B1G gets the Music City)

Real good chance Syracuse plays in a Florida bowl game, or maybe the Holiday Bowl in San Diego? Too good for the Pinstripe or Fenway Bowls.

Yeah I think if SU wins at least 8 we should get a warm weather site. BC should certainly be a win so find one more and we should be basking in warm sun

 

[Moontan]

It's Cheez It or bust for me.
My cruise leaves on the the 30th from Port Canaveral.
I was at Camping World Stadium for the previous bowl game as well.

I hope to be able to watch it wherever they play and wherever I am.

Go Orange!

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Eiiew!! Fenway bowl is December 17th at 11:00am. Might as well kick me in the nuts and steal my girlfriend

I'm convinced the Fenway Bowl will never happen. 0/2. Had a SMU friend I was going to join up and get beers with at it this last year before it got cancelled.

Feel the same way about playing @ BC when its warm even if we'll be going to that stadium every 2 years was looking forward to that in 2020.


Would have been cool if Clemson wore totally different colors and we could have seen our fans easily on Saturday. Would have been enough of us there for people to notice on TV for sure probably 2000 overall I'd guess.

If we do what Georgia did to Notre Dame and take over a decent programs stadium that would definitely help us with bowl selection and getting the better games.

 

[billorange44]

Anything but NYC, Boston, or El Paso.

I like El Paso if a Florida bowl is out of the questions. I always liked it there, but it has been a few years since I was there. Has the city of El Paso changed for the worse? The Sun Bowl, is or was in a nice location as I recall.

 

[cusefan88]

Orlando, San Diego, or Charlotte hopefully. Would do El Paso only because I would never purposefully visit.

 

[GADIAMON72]

I see lots of mention about Wake going to the Orange Bowl if Clemson is in the playoff. Wake has probably the toughest ACC schedule going forward. They still have to play an improved Louisville team, NC State, UNC, Syracuse, and Duke. That's 3 top 25 teams and a team that's receiving votes. If we can beat Wake, there's a good chance we could get into the Orange Bowl even if we have another loss somewhere. No?

That having been said, I still believe we could run the table if there is no hangover from Saturday's loss. Go Cuse!!

 

[Orangello]

I like El Paso if a Florida bowl is out of the questions. I always liked it there, but it has been a few years since I was there. Has the city of El Paso changed for the worse? The Sun Bowl, is or was in a nice location as I recall.

El Paso is good. This would be a fun destination but not sure how well we'd travel there versus a game in Fla.

 

[orangefog]

I selfishly want the Gator Bowl. I could take a couple of hours off from work drive an hour up I-95 and see the boys play a bowl game.

 

[SanDiegoCuse]

For the team I’d love the Orange Bowl.

Selfishly I want the Holiday Bowl.

El Paso I might be able to travel to.

Gator Bowl I could go with family who live outside of Jacksonville, though I’d prefer to never go there again.

 

[David332]

I see lots of mention about Wake going to the Orange Bowl if Clemson is in the playoff. Wake has probably the toughest ACC schedule going forward. They still have to play an improved Louisville team, NC State, UNC, Syracuse, and Duke. That's 3 top 25 teams and a team that's receiving votes. If we can beat Wake, there's a good chance we could get into the Orange Bowl even if we have another loss somewhere. No?

That having been said, I still believe we could run the table if there is no hangover from Saturday's loss. Go Cuse!!

We’re definitely playing for the Orange (or Cotton) bowl right now. I like our likelihood more than WF right now.

 

[richmondcuse03]

I like El Paso if a Florida bowl is out of the questions. I always liked it there, but it has been a few years since I was there. Has the city of El Paso changed for the worse? The Sun Bowl, is or was in a nice location as I recall.

El Paso is good. This would be a fun destination but not sure how well we'd travel there versus a game in Fla.

My only issue with that bowl is getting there. It's not an easy destination compared to the others. I wouldn't mind a San Diego trip either. But Florida is so much easier for everyone.

 

[IthacaMatt]

El Paso is good. This would be a fun destination but not sure how well we'd travel there versus a game in Fla.

Yeah, it's expensive flights, and kind of nowhere. Certainly not much of a family destination, IMO.

 

[orangeinohio]

Yeah, it's expensive flights, and kind of nowhere. Certainly not much of a family destination, IMO.

Juarez is right across the border. That's family fun.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Juarez is right across the border. That's family fun.

... of a certain type! Aye, Caramba!

 

[NKR1978]

Eiiew!! Fenway bowl is December 17th at 11:00am. Might as well kick me in the nuts and steal my girlfriend

Some people are into that.