SU opens +3 vs BC

[Cusefan95]

After doing a little research, this is interesting. So Circa is the first book that sets the college lines every Sunday. That was the printout that Axe tweeted and everyone saw that showed BC -3. That wasn't a misprint. That was the original oddsmakers line from the Circa crew

But they said that if a couple sharps throw in some upward limit bets right away, the line can move drastically sometimes within 10 seconds of the posting. Circa tweeted that's indeed what happened with our game.

So long story short, most likely some sharps threw a crap ton on Cuse when it came out.

tl:dr We're gonna curb stomp the eagles

Sagarin would project Syracuse as about -3 to -5. A line coming out at Syracuse +3 would definitely get a lot of attention, not a surprise that it flipped.

 

[Chip]

After doing a little research, this is interesting. So Circa is the first book that sets the college lines every Sunday. That was the printout that Axe tweeted and everyone saw that showed BC -3. That wasn't a misprint. That was the original oddsmakers line from the Circa crew

But they said that if a couple sharps throw in some upward limit bets right away, the line can move drastically sometimes within 10 seconds of the posting. Circa tweeted that's indeed what happened with our game.

So long story short, most likely some sharps threw a crap ton on Cuse when it came out.

tl:dr We're gonna curb stomp the eagles

So long story short, you screwed up your signs the first time and fixed your negative to a positive.

Happens to me all the time.

 

[CbusCuse]

I think the analytics are taking into account the entire season results too much. I don't think they are putting enough stock into how we are playing lately compared to the beginning of the year. We are not the same team we were for whatever reason. I'm betting "big for me" on BC. If i lose my bet I'll be very happy. If i win my bet I'll still be very unhappy but at least i'll have a little more money.

 

[690West]

I think the analytics are taking into account the entire season results too much. I don't think they are putting enough stock into how we are playing lately compared to the beginning of the year. We are not the same team we were for whatever reason. I'm betting "big for me" on BC. If i lose my bet I'll be very happy. If i win my bet I'll still be very unhappy but at least i'll have a little more money.

I will say this once. DO NOT bet against the Orange this week. I feel terrible doing the broken record thing but I’m certain we win by 10 minimum. And ready for another crazy nugget? Isaiah Jones has TWO touchdowns!!

 

[upperdeck]

dang 690 throwing out the prop bets early in the week

 

[CbusCuse]

I will say this once. DO NOT bet against the Orange this week. I feel terrible doing the broken record thing but I’m certain we win by 10 minimum. And ready for another crazy nugget? Isaiah Jones has TWO touchdowns!!

I will be very glad if Isaiah is back. Certainly would help. I still don't think there is very much likelihood we somehow win by 10 though.

 

[Cusefan95]

I will say this once. DO NOT bet against the Orange this week. I feel terrible doing the broken record thing but I’m certain we win by 10 minimum. And ready for another crazy nugget? Isaiah Jones has TWO touchdowns!!

Now that I’ve thrown in the towel and boarded the Fire Dino train, them winning by double digits would be my luck. But I’ve already taken a seat, and I ain’t going nowhere.

 

[Cusefan95]

I think the analytics are taking into account the entire season results too much. I don't think they are putting enough stock into how we are playing lately compared to the beginning of the year. We are not the same team we were for whatever reason. I'm betting "big for me" on BC. If i lose my bet I'll be very happy. If i win my bet I'll still be very unhappy but at least i'll have a little more money.

Sagarin has a version which skews heavily towards recent results; that still has BC and Syracuse about equal on a neutral field. And Syracuse has dropped 8 points in value in that version since before the FSU game - in other words a month ago we would be a double digit favorite vs BC (at home).

The reason analytics are favoring Syracuse has a lot less to do with Syracuse than it does with BC being terrible too. I mean -we’re both ranked in the 70s at this point, behind FCS Montana State. I fully get that we are trash - but so are BC, Pitt, Wake, and GT.

 

[CbusCuse]

Sagarin has a version which skews heavily towards recent results; that still has BC and Syracuse about equal on a neutral field. And Syracuse has dropped 8 points in value in that version since before the FSU game - in other words a month ago we would be a double digit favorite vs BC (at home).

The reason analytics are favoring Syracuse has a lot less to do with Syracuse than it does with BC being terrible too. I mean -we’re both ranked in the 70s at this point, behind FCS Montana State. I fully get that we are trash - but so are BC, Pitt, Wake, and GT.

Yeah i've seen the Sagarin RECENT rankings, which are the ones slanted to more recent results. They can't factor in recent games all that much more. The heavier weighting for recent games has to be very slight.
In Sagarin RATING we are 76, PREDICTOR we are 72, GOLDEN MEAN we are 74 and RECENT we are 77.

College Football Ratings Page

If we have Isaiah Jones back that could help some but I'm not sure how much. if our OL still sucks and we have Shrader throwing how he has been not sure how much of a positive bump that can really make. And with the additional Cornerback injuries and changes that seems to be an additional negative.

Virginia Tech is a 53 in the RECENT ranking and that is just after throttling us at home. We've had a steady stretch of bad without anything indicating expected improvement. I'm not confident much is going to change.

 

[Cusefan95]

Yeah i've seen the Sagarin RECENT rankings, which are the ones slanted to more recent results. They can't factor in recent games all that much more. The heavier weighting for recent games has to be very slight.
In Sagarin RATING we are 76, PREDICTOR we are 72, GOLDEN MEAN we are 74 and RECENT we are 77.

College Football Ratings Page

If we have Isaiah Jones back that could help some but I'm not sure how much. if our OL still sucks and we have Shrader throwing how he has been not sure how much of a positive bump that can really make. And with the additional Cornerback injuries and changes that seems to be an additional negative.

Virginia Tech is a 53 in the RECENT ranking and that is just after throttling us at home. We've had a steady stretch of bad without anything indicating expected improvement. I'm not confident much is going to change.

Our values to get to a projected spread are:
Predictor - 69.07
Golden - 68.58
Recent - 67.62

The numbers you cited are what our ranking is in that metric - so we are 5 spots lower in RECENT that in PREDICTOR, about 1.5 pts less in Recent than in Predictor. And we were (I think) 55 prior to the VT game - VT didn't gain much but we dropped like a rock. Which is what I was saying - we shed 8 points of value since our 4-0 start. At 4-0 we were in the low 30s, now we're in the 70s. I would have expected shedding that much value would be a challenge to borderline impossible - yet here we are. So I'd agree that the recent weighing is probably slight - but overall our value drop has been enormous.

More important for the spread on BC - anyone shocked we would be favored is putting all their stock into the Florida State loss. Other than that, they LOST to Northern Illinois, barely beat Holy Cross, got their doors blown off by Louisville, barely beat Virginia, UConn, and Army - and beat Georgia Tech by 2 TDs. They are hot garbage that had one outlier game where they looked competent. Beating four other hot garbage teams heading into our matchup doesn't mean much - and it would mean absolutely nothing if we were not also hot garbage.

This is why I think betting on a game a team you root for is in is a terrible idea - you KNOW your team is a dumpster fire, but don't appreciate that the flames are billowing out of the other team's dumpster just as high.

 

[CbusCuse]

Our values to get to a projected spread are:
Predictor - 69.07
Golden - 68.58
Recent - 67.62

The numbers you cited are what our ranking is in that metric - so we are 5 spots lower in RECENT that in PREDICTOR, about 1.5 pts less in Recent than in Predictor. And we were (I think) 55 prior to the VT game - VT didn't gain much but we dropped like a rock. Which is what I was saying - we shed 8 points of value since our 4-0 start. At 4-0 we were in the low 30s, now we're in the 70s. I would have expected shedding that much value would be a challenge to borderline impossible - yet here we are. So I'd agree that the recent weighing is probably slight - but overall our value drop has been enormous.

More important for the spread on BC - anyone shocked we would be favored is putting all their stock into the Florida State loss. Other than that, they LOST to Northern Illinois, barely beat Holy Cross, got their doors blown off by Louisville, barely beat Virginia, UConn, and Army - and beat Georgia Tech by 2 TDs. They are hot garbage that had one outlier game where they looked competent. Beating four other hot garbage teams heading into our matchup doesn't mean much - and it would mean absolutely nothing if we were not also hot garbage.

This is why I think betting on a game a team you root for is in is a terrible idea - you KNOW your team is a dumpster fire, but don't appreciate that the flames are billowing out of the other team's dumpster just as high.

I'm only responding to the beginning of this. Obviously we dropped like a rock in the overall rankings since 4 games ago. We have been getting killed for half the season now. I don't care how much it has changed from previous games. I'm just saying that the overall rankings now according to the RECENT are not much different than the other rankings from now so it can't weight recent games all that much more. Seems to me it should factor those in a little more than it does.

 

[CousCuse]

Other than that, they LOST to Northern Illinois, barely beat Holy Cross, got their doors blown off by Louisville, barely beat Virginia, UConn, and Army -

Northern Illinois is the no.2 state school in Illinois and has dominated the MAC for a long time and is now getting back to that position. They are not a MAC team that mid-level p5 or lower should schedule. HC is near the top of the FCS, you should not schedule high ranked FCS teams early in the season or you could get a loss, Cuse may find that out next year. They played Army in a driving rain. They didn't attack UConn like it was a huge game, and UConn is improving, just wore them down for a win. UVA is good and Ville is deadly.

 

[Cusefan95]

I'm only responding to the beginning of this. Obviously we dropped like a rock in the overall rankings since 4 games ago. We have been getting killed for half the season now. I don't care how much it has changed from previous games. I'm just saying that the overall rankings now according to the RECENT are not much different than the other rankings from now so it can't weight recent games all that much more. Seems to me it should factor those in a little more than it does.

A 1.5 pt shift in a line is substantial based on the same 8 game data. That’s what we see here using just the data from this week. If it was larger, RECENT would probably be useless because it would give too much weight to one bad loss. And RECENT is actually closer to PREDICTOR now than it was two weeks ago, because more “bad game” data is being added to the mix.

What do you think the spread on the BC - Syracuse game should be, considering our recent weak performance?

 

[Cusefan95]

Northern Illinois is the no.2 state school in Illinois and has dominated the MAC for a long time and is now getting back to that position. They are not a MAC team that mid-level p5 or lower should schedule. HC is near the top of the FCS, you should not schedule high ranked FCS teams early in the season or you could get a loss, Cuse may find that out next year. They played Army in a driving rain. They didn't attack UConn like it was a huge game, and UConn is improving, just wore them down for a win. UVA is good and Ville is deadly.

If you have to add that much “context”, it stops being context and is just you adding personal opinion into the data to reach your desired conclusion.

The one piece of context which I think is relevant is if GS is injured and that’s impacting his play. I don’t know that’s true - but it would swing the Vegas line to favor BC slightly if that was known to be true.

 

[upperdeck]

BC has one thing.. A qb who is a dual threat and creates some big plays. they one play you most of the time., When was our last 1 play type drive..

If Shrader throws the same way as the last few games I dont know why we play him. While he can run he really is avg at the RPO. He is Devito at that, with a better upside once he gets in the open field.

You have to have a QB that can at least stretch the field sometimes.

 

[PhatOrange]

BC has one thing.. A qb who is a dual threat and creates some big plays. they one play you most of the time., When was our last 1 play type drive..

If Shrader throws the same way as the last few games I dont know why we play him. While he can run he really is avg at the RPO. He is Devito at that, with a better upside once he gets in the open field.

You have to have a QB that can at least stretch the field sometimes.

So we can expect a bunch of 3rd and 8 first downs? great.

How long do you ride Shrader Friday night? I really think BC is a team Wilson can beat.

 

[upperdeck]

A 1.5 pt shift in a line is substantial based on the same 8 game data. That’s what we see here using just the data from this week. If it was larger, RECENT would probably be useless because it would give too much weight to one bad loss. And RECENT is actually closer to PREDICTOR now than it was two weeks ago, because more “bad game” data is being added to the mix.

What do you think the spread on the BC - Syracuse game should be, considering our recent weak performance?

if you told me we win by 20 or lose by 20 would it surprise anyone..

But with an oline playing so poorly how do we move the ball.. VT is actually about the most disruptive dline in the league and it showed..

I think if the oline was playing just avg we would have beaten Clemson and VT would not have been a blowout. But playing well below is not gonna get it done

 

[upperdeck]

So we can expect a bunch of 3rd and 8 first downs? great.

How long do you ride Shrader Friday night? I really think BC is a team Wilson can beat.

I do too.

if Shrader was not a team leader I think the switch would have already been made. But he needs to accept it too, if he cant throw he needs to be the leader on that,

 

[CbusCuse]

A 1.5 pt shift in a line is substantial based on the same 8 game data. That’s what we see here using just the data from this week. If it was larger, RECENT would probably be useless because it would give too much weight to one bad loss. And RECENT is actually closer to PREDICTOR now than it was two weeks ago, because more “bad game” data is being added to the mix.

What do you think the spread on the BC - Syracuse game should be, considering our recent weak performance?

One bad loss...really?

BC is a bad team. I don't care about Syracuse's 8 game data. It doesn't mean much as a whole to me. One game would not be that much of a trend and could be more of an anomaly. But we have been atrocious with no signs of life. Last 4 games we have lost by 17, 33, 38 and 28. We look like we'd get smoked by any team with a pulse.

So...we are at home. I'd say it should be BC favored by 3 points maybe?

 

[upperdeck]

the key is the offense bottomed out, went back up to 10 so lock us in for 17-24 pts this week.. Can the D do something with that at Home.

 

[Cuseregular]

I will say this once. DO NOT bet against the Orange this week. I feel terrible doing the broken record thing but I’m certain we win by 10 minimum. And ready for another crazy nugget? Isaiah Jones has TWO touchdowns!!

Aaa thinking same

 

[Cusefan95]

One bad loss...really?

BC is a bad team. I don't care about Syracuse's 8 game data. It doesn't mean much as a whole to me. One game would not be that much of a trend and could be more of an anomaly. But we have been atrocious with no signs of life. Last 4 games we have lost by 17, 33, 38 and 28. We look like we'd get smoked by any team with a pulse.

So...we are at home. I'd say it should be BC favored by 3 points maybe?

I’m not saying we’ve had one bad loss. I’m saying metrics which bias towards recent results have to temper that somewhat to account for the potential a loss was a bad loss. I’d noted after the FSU loss that we dropped about 5 points in value in Predictor (which helped that catch up to Recent) - we’ve shed value at a rate which is unreal if you’ve watched it through the year.

And as I’ve mentioned but you chose to ignore - if we played BC a month ago - we would have been a double digit favorite. That’s even at BCs value now, which is certainly higher than a month ago.

We’ve lost eight points in the last month in Sagarin Predictor. Think about that. Eight points. That’s enormous. Almost unfathomable. And that’s still inadequate in your mind, it should have been closer to 14. That would put us around the 100th ranked team in college football, behind a 3-5 Utah State team.

Look, I get that we’re terrible. And we might lose on Friday. But your expectations around the spread are extremely uninformed and are likely guided mostly by your emotions. If you think BC is a good bet, go for it.

But I’ll argue all day that if you think we should be ranked 100th behind Utah State, you are nuts. Which is where we’d need to be to make your spread suggestion for - because BC is ALSO hot garbage.

 

[CuseBlood44]

Felt good when it opened / shifted to Cuse -3… but now it is coming back towards the eagles. Cuse -2. Only hope is that this is reverse line movement to bait more of the public into picking the eags

 

[690West]

Money continues to trickle in with an Eagle tint. Down to -1.5 and -2 at some books.

 

[690West]

Felt good when it opened / shifted to Cuse -3… but now it is coming back towards the eagles. Cuse -2

Jinx!