Orange face a challenging game this weekend against a team they've already lost to this season, 19-13. In that matchup the Orange could not keep up with the Tar Heel offense, and Logan McGovern scored eight points. The Orange held serve in the first quarter and were only down 5-4, but UNC outscored them 7-2 in the second to put the game out of reach. Despite the offensive onslaught, Will Mark made 17 saves.
On defense, the Orange were playing the game without SSDM Brandon Aviles. Not sure that would have changed the outcome of that game, but having him back has certainly been a boost for the SU defense. The question, as has been the last few weeks is will Landon Clary be back? He struggled against McGovern in the last outing. If he's out the question is who guards the Tar Heel's top scorer (51 points)? Saam Olexo had been switched to close defense while Clary has been out but last week, perhaps because Clary actually started the game against Princeton, Olexo was back at his old position and Nick Caccamo guarded Princeton's top attackman. Perhaps moving Olexo back down to close this game is the right move. Caccamo strugged against Lance Tillman in the first matchup, and might do better against Sean Goldsmith who is starting at midfield for the Heels right now.
On offense the Orange seemed to do well against the Tar Heels when they got the ball. Joey Spallina and Owen Hiltz combined for 10 points. At the face-off X, Johnny Richiusa didn't do that poorly as he only lost three more than his UNC counterpart. Also UNC seems to be struggling this year at face-offs, with their main FOGO winning below 50%. Jack Fine has taken over responsibilities at the X, and did well in his last outing against Princeton. Should be another interesting rematch, I imagine the staff will stick with Fine, but they have to know that Richiusa didn't fare that badly in his first matchup with UNC.
UNC has had a strange year. They beat Hopkins when the Blue Jays were coming off just a few days rest but otherwise don't have any marquee wins. They've been beating up on lower teams (and I guess SU) but haven't been close in games against Duke or UVA (also have losses to Denver and Ohio State). SU is, surprising to me at least, favored by 1.5 this game despite the earlier season loss.
Anyways, I think winning this game for the Orange would be great for momentum, even if they are unable to beat Duke or UVA to end the season (a tall order to be sure). Winning this game would guarantee a winning record for the Orange, and while it certainly wouldn't guarantee a playoff appearance, that's no small potatoes. I personally would feel a lot better about the trajectory of this program if they can build on the Princeton win and snatch an ACC win. Go Orange.
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