Superconferences...Redux

[AgentOrange]

If the PAC-12 becomes the PAC-16 with the addition of OU, UT, TT, and OSU, the SEC, B10, and ACC will likely follow suit. If so, there would be 12 openenings between these three conferences. Since the SEC is probably not going to extend an invite to SU and would likely poach the ACC for some of the teams that it would add, so would we make the cut for one of the 8 (or maybe 10) teams that the B10 or ACC would add?

Here is one possibile scenario:

The SEC could add FSU, VTech, and Louisville, and WVU.

The B10 might add Missouri, Kansas, Pitt, and Rutgers.

So then, the ACC is left to choose from SU, UConn, Cinci, SFU, ECU, UCF, for its new members. Although, since this list isn't overly appealing, the ACC could just opt to add 2 (SU, UConn) to replace FSU and Tech, and remain at a conference of 12.

Whatever happens, SU is appealing enough to end up in one of the superconferences...if they all expand. The worst case scenario would be if the SEC and ACC both decided not to expand, but the B1o did and passed on SU, because it would likely weaken the BE even more and leave SU in the cold.

 

[supp]

If the PAC-12 becomes the PAC-16 with the addition of OU, UT, TT, and OSU, the SEC, B10, and ACC will likely follow suit. If so, there would be 12 openenings between these three conferences. Since the SEC is probably not going to extend an invite to SU and would likely poach the ACC for some of the teams that it would add, so would we make the cut for one of the 8 (or maybe 10) teams that the B10 or ACC would add?

Here is one possibile scenario:

The SEC could add FSU, VTech, and Louisville, and WVU.

The B10 might add Missouri, Kansas, Pitt, and Rutgers.

So then, the ACC is left to choose from SU, UConn, Cinci, SFU, ECU, UCF, for its new members. Although, since this list isn't overly appealing, the ACC could just opt to add 2 (SU, UConn) to replace FSU and Tech, and remain at a conference of 12.

Whatever happens, SU is appealing enough to end up in one of the superconferences...if they all expand. The worst case scenario would be if the SEC and ACC both decided not to expand, but the B1o did and passed on SU, because it would likely weaken the BE even more and leave SU in the cold.

It's unlikely that SU gets left behind in any scenario but I think you might be selling the B10 and SEC short here. If they're going to expand to 16, I think they're going to make sure that they maximize their value. No compromises, given the sacrifices that present members will make (and have made already to a certain extent). In that case, I think they will look to add the best combination of markets, academics, and athletics they can. It seems more likely to me that the ACC will get gutted than the BE, ironically enough, because they have more appealing teams to the SEC and B10 than the BE. First of all, there will only be three slots in the SEC once they take TAMU. Second, they'll probably take a Western team to balance out the divisions without forcing any current members to move. So, Missouri, TAMU, and FSU look like the strongest SEC possibilities. The last team will be one of VT/NCSU/Clemson.

If ND says no, I think it's more likely that the B10 will raid what remains of the ACC than the BE. Who would you take? Pitt/Rutgers/Syracuse or UNC/Duke/UVA/UMd? Interestingly, the BE is perhaps in a better position because of its weakness than the ACC.

The only variable is ND. They can singlehandedly save or sink a conference.

 

[Alsacs]

SEC is not going to add teams from a state they already have for recruiting persons. Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia have a gentleman's agreement not to add any teams from those states. I believe the SEC at 13 will look at Missouri for 14. I believe if they need 16 West Virginia and a Virginia team (UVA, Va-Tech) or a North Carolina school (UNC, NC State) would be 16.
The B1G will not expand until Notre Dame decides and I believe they will look at Notre Dame, Maryland, Pittsburgh and if Mizzou is gone sadly probably Rutgers.
At this point the ACC, Big East and Big 12 leftovers would merge into SU,UConn,Louisville,Cincinati would join with Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Florida St, Clemson, Duke, 1 of (UVA, Va Tech,) 1 of (UNC, NC State,) Wake, Ga Tech, BC, and Miami as a 16 team conference.

 

[tep624]

Put me on record as saying there will be 5 superconferences and 80 teams at the BCS table. It's the only way the NCAA can put and end to the haves vs haves not argument. If the vast majority of the teams have access, that argument disintegrates. SU will have a place at the table, regardless.

 

[orangephan]

Put me on record as saying there will be 5 superconferences and 80 teams at the BCS table. It's the only way the NCAA can put and end to the haves vs haves not argument. If the vast majority of the teams have access, that argument disintegrates. SU will have a place at the table, regardless.

I wouldn't disagree with you. There are to many good programs out there, like TCU and Boise State, to be relegated to obscurity. There may still be a 5th SC, albeit the best of the rest. Furthermore, BCS#5 may likely be a 12 team conference to preserve quality, spanning coast-to-coast. It may seem crazy considering all sports, but I think there are 12-16 schools out there with solid D1A programs willing to make that commitment to stay on top.