Big question is "how to you replace Brogdon?". He's one of the 4-5 best players ever at UVa, and no one guy will do it...it'll have to be a by committee approach.
I'm a huge Gill fan, but Nichols will be better. He already had a mature offensive post game. He worked on his mid-range game during the RS season. He's a better defender (especially in TB's system) than Gill.
I've been a UVa fan for 35 years, and I'm not sure anyone frustrated me more than Mike Tobey. Great kid, but inconsistent. He'd look like an All-American one night, and disappear the next...when he was "on" we were close to unstoppable. I absolutely love our new big man, Diakite. I have a feeling TB will bring him along slowly, but I've seen this kid practice with my own eyes, and he's going to be special. A defensive beast, freak athlete, and a threat on the perimeter. He won't start right away, but I don't see how TB can keep him off the court. He won't be at UVa for 4 years...I'd consider us lucky if we get 3 out of him.
To me, the difference in a good (top 20-25 season, #4-5 in the ACC) versus a great season (Final Four potential, ACC contender) will be answered in 2 questions.
1. Which 3rd year player(s) will step up? Last year Devon Hall, Darius Thompson, Isaiah Wilkins, & Marial Shayok were solid role players and all averaged 4-5 per game. Since TB has been at UVa, players have typically broken out between their 2nd & 3rd years. We need at least 2 of these guys to continue that pattern...I'd like to see 2 double their scoring output, and become viable 3rd & 4th options after Nichols & Perrantes.
2. How good is the freshman class? I don't see any freshmen starting, but a couple will play significant roles. I've already mentioned Diakite. I also love Kyle Guy & DeAndre Hunter. Guy has the quickest release, is a dead-eye 3 point shooter, and is an incredible athlete for someone 6'2...he plays with a little bit of a cocky swagger. Hunter is a much more reserved personality than Guy, but we haven't had a wing quite like him since TB has been coach. He has a 7'2 wingspan, does a little bit of everything well, and will push the upperclassmen for minutes...most recruiting services had him somewhere in the 60-100 range, but he'll play above that. We also have Ty Jerome & Jay Huff...Huff may redshirt because he needs to add some weight/strength. Jerome is coming off of hip surgery...he could redshirt, but has recovered well. I don't think either of those guys will play roles as big as the other 3 freshmen though.