Syracuse Hoops - Current Advanced Metrics from EvanMiya

[IthacaMatt]

Kiyan's loss of effectiveness is one of the first things that jumps out to me.

Let us know your thoughts.

 

[ar inj]

Stats tell me JJ is the weak link of the top 5 both on offense and defense, which is something I could already see without the stats. Red wanted JJ. I thought JJ should stay if he was going to be number 6 or 7 and not playing 28.9 minutes per game. But who can you replace him with given the roster?

 

[IthacaMatt]

I was surprised that Kyle wasn't doing a little better offensively than the numbers suggest.
I'm also kind of flabbergasted that Betsey is rated so low defensively.
As for Kiyan, well, you can see that he has played very poorly offensively for about the last 6 games or so.

 

[IthacaMatt]

If you look at our raw stats, there are so many reasons we should be doing better:

• We have six guys scoring in double figures
• Rebounding was a strength last year, and we are pretty close to the same number, which is reason for hope with Donnie having missed so many games
• We've nearly tripled our blocked shots versus last year, and doubled our steals
• We're far more athletic than last year

But on the other hand:

• We have fewer assists than last year, despite having Nate George versus Jaquan Carlos
• Our 3 point shooting is literally abysmal, at 30% as a team
• Our free throw shooting is even worse
• We take far too many bad shots
• We miss so many layups
• We do not offensive rebound very well

 

[AlaskaSU]

And, we do not know what a back door cut is.

 

[721Comstock]

And, we do not know what a back door cut is.

On O, or D.

But I guess since we never run them on O,
is why we have no clue how to stop them on D.

 

[Niastri]

Two things:

Any stat analysis that thinks Zephir is better than Anthony, and that Kyle isn't one of our best players is highly suspect. Other advanced analytics think Kyle is our best player largely because he is far and away our best defender.

Other than those two (fatal) flaws, it passes the eye test. It also demonstrates how critical Freeman's health is for our team going forward.

 

[Niastri]

Stats tell me JJ is the weak link of the top 5 both on offense and defense, which is something I could already see without the stats. Red wanted JJ. I thought JJ should stay if he was going to be number 6 or 7 and not playing 28.9 minutes per game. But who can you replace him with given the roster?

Are you even looking at the stats when you say this? I am skeptical of a lot of this work, but Maya is saying Starling is in every one of our "best lineups" and is overall our 5th best player.

He even has Starling as a positive on defense.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Are you even looking at the stats when you say this? I am skeptical of a lot of this work, but Maya is saying Starling is in every one of our "best lineups" and is overall our 5th best player.

He even has Starling as a positive on defense.

That definitely was not the case Saturday .

 

[RedtheGOB]

I was surprised that Kyle wasn't doing a little better offensively than the numbers suggest.
I'm also kind of flabbergasted that Betsey is rated so low defensively.
As for Kiyan, well, you can see that he has played very poorly offensively for about the last 6 games or so.

On Betsey defensively. My take is that when he misses, he misses big and the other team gets an easy bucket. I want to say alot of times he fouls and the other team still scores or he just completely loses his man. I think the metrics penalize that more. When he's in position he's fine, but otherwise he's streaky.

 

[Niastri]

That definitely was not the case Saturday .

My argument wasn't with Starling being a weak link at times this season. It is empirically correct. He is bad defensively most of the time, and has periods on offense where it looks like he has internalized the incorrect "Starling is a ball hog and a gunner" criticism and is trying to prove his detractors incorrect.

It was with this group of stats supporting that argument. I do not agree that Maya's stats listed above support the argument that Starling is the problem with our team. I am not even sure it supports the argument he is the worst of our starters, though that may be the case (White is worse, but out of Freeman, Kyle, George, Starling and Kingz, who would you pick last?).

I think some of Maya's stats don't make sense, but I don't necessarily think we should throw all his work out...

 

[Cusefan0307]

My argument wasn't with Starling being a weak link at times this season. It is empirically correct. He is bad defensively most of the time, and has periods on offense where it looks like he has internalized the incorrect "Starling is a ball hog and a gunner" criticism and is trying to prove his detractors incorrect.

It was with this group of stats supporting that argument. I do not agree that Maya's stats listed above support the argument that Starling is the problem with our team. I am not even sure it supports the argument he is the worst of our starters, though that may be the case (White is worse, but out of Freeman, Kyle, George, Starling and Kingz, who would you pick last?).

I think some of Maya's stats don't make sense, but I don't necessarily think we should throw all his work out...

Starling has the worst PER on the team and the second worst defensive rating. I think he’s easily the weakest link of the starting group.

 

[Blanko97]

Silly question but seeing starling makes me question the methodology... I assume he is only getting credit for the 3 minutes he played in game one, right? Like he isnt getting an outsized defensive rating from it being as game a "played" but surrendered no points? I know its dumb and it probably does take it into account but it just doesnt match what we see on the court.

 

[RedtheGOB]

Starling has the worst PER on the team and the second worst defensive rating. I think he’s easily the weakest link of the starting group.

Metrics sites also don't take into account if the player is a Senior Captain Guard with 100+ ACC starts or a 9th man off the bench that has barely played any P5 games, it's all the same to them.

There's a level of frustration and accountability missing from JJ that brings the rest of the team down whether the metrics show that totally or not.

 

[Niastri]

Starling has the worst PER on the team and the second worst defensive rating. I think he’s easily the weakest link of the starting group.

You have to go outside the stat set you commented on to support your argument with PER.

I was merely responding to your comment about Maya's stats, not relitigating the Starling value conversation. I think any hopes of Starling turning the corner have passed. We shall see, but nothing in the above statistics indicate he is the weakest link as you stated.

You choosing to bring in other statistical measures, like PER, is moving the goalposts.

Not every discussion has to be dragged kicking and screaming into a "Starling sucks" referendum.

But, since you brought it up, I agree, most of the advanced metrics think Starling stinks. By a lot of statistics, he is having his worst year of his career. But they all agree his defense is better than ever before, which to me is faint praise, but passes the eye test. Starling has bad defensive instincts, any time there is a 50-50 "should I go left or right" situation on defense, he goes the wrong way 80% of the time. It's uncanny. But he is working harder than ever before, and is battling through screens and staying in front of his man more than he has in the past. He also has help from Kyle, unlike the previous years at Syracuse. Having literally no center as a sophomore and Lampkin as a junior probably hurt Starling's DRtg substantially, because when he did get beat, he didn't have any help. This year he at least has Kyle and other shotblocking big men to help him out.

The thing I worry about with Starling is that I really thought having a true point guard would help him become more efficient, and all it has done is reduce his usage and minutes.

 

[RedtheGOB]

Stats tell me JJ is the weak link of the top 5 both on offense and defense, which is something I could already see without the stats. Red wanted JJ. I thought JJ should stay if he was going to be number 6 or 7 and not playing 28.9 minutes per game. But who can you replace him with given the roster?

My thought from before the season started was that George needed to be playing 36+ mins a game and make a big jump from a leadership perspective. Basically take that burden off of JJ and Kiyan, but that didn't happen.

He's just been too careless with the ball and takes too many bad shots. Way too inefficient from our point guard against P5 competition.

I will say that we have been playing alot of top defenses so he may improve but until he gets in a rhythm we're prob screwed either way. Also not so sure how he can get in a rhythm offensively with the whole team shooting barely 30% from 3. Teams are just daring all of our guards to take jumpers.

 

[Cusefan0307]

You have to go outside the stat set you commented on to support your argument with PER.

I was merely responding to your comment about Maya's stats, not relitigating the Starling value conversation. I think any hopes of Starling turning the corner have passed. We shall see, but nothing in the above statistics indicate he is the weakest link as you stated.

You choosing to bring in other statistical measures, like PER, is moving the goalposts.

Not every discussion has to be dragged kicking and screaming into a "Starling sucks" referendum.

But, since you brought it up, I agree, most of the advanced metrics think Starling stinks. By a lot of statistics, he is having his worst year of his career. But they all agree his defense is better than ever before, which to me is faint praise, but passes the eye test. Starling has bad defensive instincts, any time there is a 50-50 "should I go left or right" situation on defense, he goes the wrong way 80% of the time. It's uncanny. But he is working harder than ever before, and is battling through screens and staying in front of his man more than he has in the past. He also has help from Kyle, unlike the previous years at Syracuse. Having literally no center as a sophomore and Lampkin as a junior probably hurt Starling's DRtg substantially, because when he did get beat, he didn't have any help. This year he at least has Kyle and other shotblocking big men to help him out.

The thing I worry about with Starling is that I really thought having a true point guard would help him become more efficient, and all it has done is reduce his usage and minutes.

His defense still stinks though IMO. I thought he was beyond terrible Saturday and should have been benched. Outside or White he was the worst player on the court for us. I do not understand why we refuse to at least try Kingz at the 2 to get he, Betsey, and Freeman on the court together.

 

[23Zone]

And, we do not know what a back door cut is.

Gotta love some back door action

 

[Fly Rodder]

(White is worse, but out of Freeman, Kyle, George, Starling and Kingz, who would you pick last?)

Starling. No question.

Evan Miya's BPR is relative to other players and both OBPR and DBPR take into account teammates on the floor. So, your observation that JJ is made better by Kyle is probably correct. The SU team defense is better this season, by quite a bit, however, JJ is still the worst regular and 3rd worst defender on the team behind a frosh and a kid who was the worst defender last year on a top-30 Cincinnati defense (one of the worst in conference just ahead of a kid named Benny Williams. And for a bonus the worst in conference was Dior Johnson).

And Kiyan shows flashes of being good, he is not our best player by any stretch.

 

[Fly Rodder]

His defense still stinks though IMO. I thought he was beyond terrible Saturday and should have been benched. Outside or White he was the worst player on the court for us. I do not understand why we refuse to at least try Kingz at the 2 to get he, Betsey, and Freeman on the court together.

Betsey being an awful defender is probably why. He gives up as many extra points as he creates.

 

[Niastri]

Starling. No question.

Evan Miya's BPR is relative to other players and both OBPR and DBPR take into account teammates on the floor. So, your observation that JJ is made better by Kyle is probably correct. The SU team defense is better this season, by quite a bit, however, JJ is still the worst regular and 3rd worst defender on the team behind a frosh and a kid who was the worst defender last year on a top-30 Cincinnati defense (one of the worst in conference just ahead of a kid named Benny Williams. And for a bonus the worst in conference was Dior Johnson).

And Kiyan shows flashes of being good, he is not our best player by any stretch.

Literally nobody said this... The best I can recall, I commented that Maya thinks Anthony is worse than Zephir, which is ludicris.

 

[Niastri]

Betsey being an awful defender is probably why. He gives up as many extra points as he creates.

In a situation where our team desperately needs offense (the defense has been decent), putting Betsey out there instead of White or Souare seems prudent.

Especially with Kyle and Freeman in the frontcourt, Betsey will be relied upon less for interior defense.

Betsey could be a big boost with Starling/Kingz and George drawing defenders, rather than White in the dunkers spot clogging things up, or in the corner where nobody on either team pays attention to him.

 

[dollarbill44]

Literally nobody said this... The best I can recall, I commented that Maya thinks Anthony is worse than Zephir, which is ludicris.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Literally nobody said this... The best I can recall, I commented that Maya thinks Anthony is worse than Zephir, which is ludicris.

I misread your post. You bounced from Kiyan to Kyle and I kept reading it as Kiyan.

 

[IthacaMatt]

On Betsey defensively. My take is that when he misses, he misses big and the other team gets an easy bucket. I want to say alot of times he fouls and the other team still scores or he just completely loses his man. I think the metrics penalize that more. When he's in position he's fine, but otherwise he's streaky.

Good observation. I think you may be right.