Syracuse opens at +6.5 against Houston

[jncuse]

I was just checking my betting site this morning (bet365) and saw the line at +6.5 Syracuse.

I am not shocked in the bit by this number. It basically falls right in line with the KP predicted line which by my calculation based on the teams AdjustedEM's and Tempo would be +7.5. The formula Vegas must use now to establish lines always seems to come close to KP and you can see that consistently from game to game.

Last night I posted that I thought Vegas would veer down a little bit more to +5 for various factors but did predict it could go as high as +7 purely based on math.

The homer in me sees this as tremendous value for Syracuse -- of course could be recency bias in watching the two teams play recently.

I do expect the line to come down a bit before the game so I already placed small wagers on the money line at +225 and at +6.5, (I like to follow gambling lines, but am not a huge gambler).

 

[bballbeadle]

They think we are that inept, huh? Hmmmmm.

 

[pearl31]

delicious

 

[NateW]

6.5?

I don’t bet much but that is a delectable spread

 

[Gotothehole]

Taking the points today. By Friday the line should drop to -3. Taking ML and the points

 

[Alsacs]

I don’t get how Iowa is only -1 against Oregon and Houston is 3
Points higher than the WVU spread.

WVU was -3.5
I don’t get 6.5.

I guess Houston is really good and maybe Rutgers was a better draw. Even though I didn’t want to play that matchup.

 

[jncuse]

They think we are that inept, huh? Hmmmmm.

I don't think its any slight by the oddsmakers against Syracuse per se, they just seem to have an agenda now to stick to whatever their formula is (close to KP) no matter what for most college basketball games. They will move the line a few points based on action but not more than that. (EDIT - This observation is made based on prior years as I have not really followed lines at all this year. So perhaps it is different this year).

I speculate the reasons for this being that Big boy betting or lack of betting on some games makes going for 50/50 action not feasible in most college basketball games. And forcing lines consistently game after game to get 50/50 action would be a financial disaster for Vegas as sharps would often put them below 50% on the bad side of a bad line. So except in really specific games they don't even bother going for 50/50. They stick with their formula being better than whatever the public thinks over the course of the year.

I remember several years ago (12+) that people used to tout that using a margin based formula like KP could beat Vegas. Now Vegas seems to be using those adjusted margin based formulas themselves to set lines, and is forcing people to beat them in other ways.

 

[Orangefan1]

I’ve seen Houston a few times this year they are pretty good but as I look at their schedule who did they really beat that stands out? Idk and they were on the ropes to Rutgers. Our team is trending in the right direction. I fear Baylor if we even make it that far but I’ll try not to look ahead of Houston which can light it up from three also.

 

[jncuse]

Taking the points today. By Friday the line should drop to -3. Taking ML and the points

I doubt the line will move by more than 2 points, but I could be wrong on that. They seem to like to open based on close to "formula" and move it a bit with the action, but they tend not to force it more than a few points.

But I would be very surprised if it doesn't move a bit towards Syracuse.

 

[jncuse]

I don’t get how Iowa is only -1 against Oregon and Houston is 3
Points higher than the WVU spread.

WVU was -3.5
I don’t get 6.5.

I guess Houston is really good and maybe Rutgers was a better draw. Even though I didn’t want to play that matchup.

Houston's Adjusted EM / 100 is 29.3 per KP. (#5)
West Virginia's is 20.4 (#22)
So it makes sense if that is the basis for Vegas Lines.


That being said you found a rare exception... Oregon at +1 doesn't fit the KP formula at all, which seems to suggest the line should be closer to +5. Perhaps there have been more exceptions this year, so its not that rare... can't say I really followed lines at all this year since I did not follow or bet on CB. I did predict the Houston spread right last night based on my prior observations, so I assumed everything was still basically the same. But maybe not. (EDIT about 3 hours later - Oregon was +5 for today's game, not +1, so it fits in with expectations)

 

[Gotothehole]

I doubt the line will move by more than 2 points, but I could be wrong on that. They seem to like to open based on close to "formula" and move it a bit with the action, but they tend not to force it more than a few points.

But I would be very surprised if it doesn't move a bit towards Syracuse.

By mid week

 

[Alsacs]

Houston's Adjusted EM / 100 is 29.3 per KP. (#5)
West Virginia's is 20.4 (#22)
So it makes sense if that is the basis for Vegas Lines.


That being said you found a rare exception... Oregon at -1 doesn't fit the KP formula at all, which seems to suggest the line should be closer to -5. Perhaps there have been more exceptions this year, so its not that rare... can't say I really followed lines at all this year since I did not follow or bet on CB. I did predict the Houston spread right last night based on my prior observations, so I assumed everything was still basically the same. But maybe not.

I know Houston is good but if they played WVU on neutral court I would have assumed WVU would be favored even though you show why Houston would be -3.

I had Rutgers +7.5 last night so now that you explain it the system it makes sense.
SU would have been -1 against Rutgers.
I assumed how teams are playing is factored in a little.
My first guess on this was Houston -4.

 

[upperdeck]

I dont get any system that had Ark +pts vs TT..

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

I was just checking my betting site this morning (bet365) and saw the line at +6.5 Syracuse.

I am not shocked in the bit by this number. It basically falls right in line with the KP predicted line which by my calculation based on the teams AdjustedEM's and Tempo would be +7.5. The formula Vegas must use now to establish lines always seems to come close to KP and you can see that consistently from game to game.

Last night I posted that I thought Vegas would veer down a little bit more to +5 for various factors but did predict it could go as high as +7 purely based on math.

The homer in me sees this as tremendous value for Syracuse -- of course could be recency bias in watching the two teams play recently.

I do expect the line to come down a bit before the game so I already placed small wagers on the money line at +225 and at +6.5, (I like to follow gambling lines, but am not a huge gambler).

 

[CardiacCuse]

I’ve seen Houston a few times this year they are pretty good but as I look at their schedule who did they really beat that stands out? Idk and they were on the ropes to Rutgers. Our team is trending in the right direction. I fear Baylor if we even make it that far but I’ll try not to look ahead of Houston which can light it up from three also.

houston was looking dead in the water...and rutgers was playing great.

until the last 5 minutes or so...jearreu (sp?) their BIG point gaurd with nice handles finishing and passing was playing through a hip pointer...he had to leave in great pain but came back in and inspired his team to victory...

I thought houston was the better matchup until the last 5 mins of the game. Houston has talent and they fly to the offensive glass. Grimes is a great scorer at different levels and can shoot the 3 very well. they have a couple other good shooters...they play together and with heart. Good team. Not sure about the hip pointer thing...if that guy is out I think it is an easy win. with him at full speed they are very good.

they are like kentucky-lite with shooters...but i didnt really see any dominant big men, which is a plus for SU.

rebounding will be HUGE.

 

[jncuse]

I dont get any system that had Ark +pts vs TT..

This morning Arkansas is #14 and Texas Tech #17 in KP, basically a pick em. Texas Tech was probably slightly better before yesterday's game in the ranking -- I think it was +1 right? So the line at +1 was within reason.

Just trying to explain the reason behind the lines... and if you find the KP ranking way off for certain teams (like you did with Arkansas), you can probably find what you perceive as value. With less OOC data this year I can certainly see that the KP rankings can be a little more flawed this year and open to interpretation.

Also teams that are trending the right way, or the bad way, are not going to rocket up or down the KP Rankings (and by extension in the Vegas lines), so there could be value there as well I would think... i.e..Syracuse. Syracuse right now is ranked #39, and were probably closer to 50 a few games back-- they are better than both those numbers.

 

[bpo57]

Line down to +6 (105) at William Hill.

 

[kirbivore]

I was just checking my betting site this morning (bet365) and saw the line at +6.5 Syracuse.

I think that's the one Jesse Pinkman endorses on commercials seen in NY on the YES and SNY channels