The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[jncuse]

Happy to see you are back doing this (although would prefer if it was not an annual tradition for the Cuse).

Here's a little comparison of 8 of the teams listed in front of the Cuse. I am not saying we would be in as of now, but I think you could make a good argument as to why we are no worse off than any of the teams listed in front of us.

• Our SOS is the best of this bunch and NET and RPI is in the top 3 or 4.
• Our top win is comparable to anyone and no bad losses.
• We have 3 Quad 1 chances left (at Ville, at Duke and at Ga Tech), two Quad 2 (ND, UNC) and one Quad 3 (BC). If we get two of those Quad 1's we would be looking pretty good vs this group.
• The 4 A10 teams will beat each other a bit and one will get the auto bid. None of them have marquee wins nor will they get the chance

View attachment 196320

You are hired!

I'm not likely going to be doing much analysis this year, so welcome all to add insights like this.

 

[Eric15]

"God I hope this is the last year of jncuse's thoughtful and analytical SU bubble takes."

-Me in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021

 

[Cuse1055]

So the latest Lunardi bracket has us as the 7th team out. Call me crazy but if we can somehow finish at least 4-2 we would be going into the ACC tourney at 15-8 (9-7). I think that would be good enough to get us in the tourney even without winning a game in the ACC tourney. Even if we go 3-3 we would be 14-9 and would probably need just one (maybe two) wins in the ACC tourney.

 

[Dinkyspond]

"God I hope this is the last year of jncuse's thoughtful and analytical SU bubble takes."

-Me in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021

FWIW, we were solidly in 2019, but only as an 8 seed. We got ousted by Baylor in the first game, that's when Frank Howard got suspended and Buddy played starter's minutes and produced a big, fat zero for points. He was only a freshman that year so it could be excused.

 

[MSOrange]

Michigan vs. Wisconsin: Live stream, watch online, TV channel, basketball tipoff time, odds, line, pick

The Wolverines are finally returning to the court after more than three weeks off

www.cbssports.com

 

[upperdeck]

The fat-shaming of JG is really getting kind of old and annoying.

has anyone really seen him without the rib protection on?

 

[Chris02M]

So the latest Lunardi bracket has us as the 7th team out. Call me crazy but if we can somehow finish at least 4-2 we would be going into the ACC tourney at 15-8 (9-7). I think that would be good enough to get us in the tourney even without winning a game in the ACC tourney. Even if we go 3-3 we would be 14-9 and would probably need just one (maybe two) wins in the ACC tourney.

we need at least 1 or 2 tournament team wins and hopefully something more on the road. beating Louisville Wednesday will move us up quite a bit.

 

[upperdeck]

So go thru the top 5-10 teams.. After that figure out who is any good..

Case 1.. You beat all the initials on your schedule.. Solidly in at 15-6/ 9-5

LUC, EIU, UAPB GB, URI so thats 5 wins but who cares

you beat Minn/Lou so thats good 2 months ago..

you lose to Marq, Mary, mich, OSU, ILL,
left you have Mich, Ill, pur , iowa twice..

so is Wisc good because they beat someone in Dec or is beating Neb-NW, Split with PSU and losing 8 of 12 make them just like everyone else.

probably gonna end 16-11 / 10-10.. unless they beat another good team.

there are 50 teams like that this yr. but they play in the B10 and will have 11 shots at pretty good teams and finish 2-9 both home wins.

Su is hopefully gonna get to 15-8 / 9-7 so 3 less chances and only 4-5 shots at pretty good teams of that only 1 of those at home. which we won.

if We beat Lou then we probably get in ahead of Wisc h2h.

 

[dollarbill44]

Speaking of “squeezing in” that’s what Joe Girard does with his uniform every game night so it’s important to remember that unlikely events do occur all the time. Hope is not lost!

Come on, man. Really?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Come on, man. Really?

He's dead serious.

 

[sutomcat]

The bracket matrix has us up to 7 votes. We were at 2 about a week ago. Still on the outside looking in but close.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

I would guess 3-2 and a win in the ACC tournament and we are probably in. Especially if one of those victories is over UL at the Yum.

 

[hoopsupstate]

we need at least 1 or 2 tournament team wins and hopefully something more on the road. beating Louisville Wednesday will move us up quite a bit.

If we play defense against Louisville on Wednesday like we did against BC, SU has no chance. They were dreadful yesterday against one of the worst teams in college basketball. SU had a hard time getting the ball inbounds and down the court against BC’s press. Quincy has to start the game being a presence inside and not shooting jump shots. SU has to attack and not just take jump shots.

 

[mikemorg]

I think one factor that will play in our favor is economics. With no tourney last year, the NCAA and CBS need the best ratings they can get. Despite our struggles in recent years, we are still a national brand in basketball. And I think the committee will take things like this into account - if it’s close, go with the name P5 school. We still have work to do, but if we are close to the bubble line, I think we get in over some other schools that may have slightly better resumes.
Would be nice if the play on the court the next few weeks makes this a moot point in a positive direction.

 

[jncuse]

FWIW, we were solidly in 2019, but only as an 8 seed. We got ousted by Baylor in the first game, that's when Frank Howard got suspended and Buddy played starter's minutes and produced a big, fat zero for points. He was only a freshman that year so it could be excused.

We were certainly a bubble team for most of 2019.

We were solidly in on Selection Sunday. But we were far from a lock for a seed until about a week or so before the Selection.

 

[jncuse]

I think one factor that will play in our favor is economics. With no tourney last year, the NCAA and CBS need the best ratings they can get. Despite our struggles in recent years, we are still a national brand in basketball. And I think the committee will take things like this into account - if it’s close, go with the name P5 school. We still have work to do, but if we are close to the bubble line, I think we get in over some other schools that may have slightly better resumes.
Would be nice if the play on the court the next few weeks makes this a moot point in a positive direction.

While there has been a trend in selecting P5 school over mid-major, there is no real trend that Bigger Name P5 (Blue Blood + Next Tier) has got any more favours than other P5 when those teams have been on the bubble. The sample is small however for the latter so its hard to make a clear conclusion.

If I had to predict one factor that could go Syracuse's way is that I think there is a possibility the committee tries to balance the # of P5 conference seeds more this year than prior years due to limited data.

A conference that gets 8/9 teams in regular years may got one less, and a conference that gets 4/5 teams in regular years (the ACC this year) may get one more.

 

[sutomcat]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

Down from 7 to 6 brackets on bracketmatrix.com/

Not a great weekend for us.

Among the teams they think we are fighting with for spots, UConn got a nice victory over Xavier, St Louis, Richmond and Maryland won, and Penn State lost to Nebraska. Maryland beat Minnesota, which was a good win for them.

Mississippi beat hapless South Carolina Marshall beat hapless Middle Tennessee and St Johns still hasn't played since that awful loss to a terrible Butler team.

The B1G is getting enormous respect.

UMd's win over Minnesota got them to 11-10. PSU is 7-10. How are they being considered?

 

[Cusefan0307]

The Big Ten beat everyone in the OOC so their metrics are really good.

 

[sutomcat]

The Big Ten beat everyone in the OOC so their metrics are really good.

They did beat some of the ACC teams in the ACC-B1G challenge with 7 wins and 5 losses but it was not a domination by any means.

Penn State is 7-10. They played 2 decent teams OOC. Lost to Seton Hall and beat a VT team missing some of their best players.

I don't get how they should be considered with teams like UConn and Syracuse.

2020-21 Men's Basketball Schedule - Penn State Athletics

The official 2020-21 Men's Basketball schedule for the Penn State Nittany Lions

gopsusports.com

 

[mikemorg]

I think one factor that will play in our favor is economics. With no tourney last year, the NCAA and CBS need the best ratings they can get. Despite our struggles in recent years, we are still a national brand in basketball. And I think the committee will take things like this into account - if it’s close, go with the name P5 school. We still have work to do, but if we are close to the bubble line, I think we get in over some other schools that may have slightly better resumes.
Would be nice if the play on the court the next few weeks makes this a moot point in a positive direction.

Especially with other national teams like Kentucky, Duke and Michigan State potentially missing the tournament. I do believe the committee is going to factor this in. Doesn't mean we get in if we go 2-4 down the stretch, but 3-3 or 4-2 and I think we have a better shot than we might have in other years with a similar resume.

 

[Cusefan0307]

They did beat some of the ACC teams in the ACC-B1G challenge with 7 wins and 5 losses but it was not a domination by any means.

Penn State is 7-10. They played 2 decent teams OOC. Lost to Seton Hall and beat a VT team missing some of their best players.

I don't get how they should be considered with teams like UConn and Syracuse.

2020-21 Men's Basketball Schedule - Penn State Athletics

The official 2020-21 Men's Basketball schedule for the Penn State Nittany Lions

gopsusports.com

I agree with you. The problem is the best teams in the Big were very successful in the non conference so just one or two wins over good teams by the mediocre teams really elevate the metrics for the rest of the conference.

I think Syracuse is a lot better than Maryland. They’ve already played Rutgers once at home and lost by 14. The game really wasn't even that close, but they did beat Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue.

 

[Alsacs]

I agree with you. The problem is the best teams in the Big were very successful in the non conference so just one or two wins over good teams by the mediocre teams really elevate the metrics for the rest of the conference.

I think Syracuse is a lot better than Maryland. They’ve already played Rutgers once at home and lost by 14. The game really wasn't even that close, but they did beat Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue.

Big Ten is insanely deep.
Iowa and Wisconsin aren’t conference title contenders and they would go neck and neck with Virginia for the ACC title.

Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa are really good teams Final Four level good.

Then Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota safely in the field.

Then teams like Maryland, Indiana are bubble teams.

Teams like Michigan State, Penn State deep bubble.

Northwestern and Nebraska complete garbage.

The Big Ten is going to get atleast 9 teams in the field.
Maryland has a way better resume than we do and they suck.

They won at Wisconsin, at Illinois swept Minnesota, Purdue and have a cakewalk now to pile up wins.
2 games with Nebraska
Northwestern
Michigan State
Rutgers

They have a strong chance to make it because they beat NCAAT teams.

We have 1 win against Virginia Tech, Northeastern and swept a bad NC State team.
That isn’t NCAAT worthy resume.

We need to beat Louisville, Georgia Tech and North Carolina.
Atleast 2 of those 3.

 

[Newhouser]

I'm sure everyone is looking at the matrix and asking why is Syracuse being considered. We have one good win and no decent road wins, and got swept by PITT. The fact that we are in the outer outer suburbs of the conversation seems odd.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I'm sure everyone is looking at the matrix and asking why is Syracuse being considered. We have one good win and no decent road wins, and got swept by PITT. The fact that we are in the outer outer suburbs of the conversation seems odd.

Our fans always think we are out. Always.

 

[Alsacs]

Our fans always think we are out. Always.

If we go by the numbers we shouldn’t be close.

If it’s just because it’s a Covid year and committee has quotas to fill from the big conference teams then okay..
Right now though we are lucky to be on the deep bubble.

We have 2 good wins. Northeastern and Virginia Tech.

That isn’t a NCAAT resume.

If we beat Louisville, Georgia Tech and North Carolina I will crunch the numbers.

Pittsburgh swept us they aren’t even on a single bracket matrix projection.
Georgia Tech looks decent they aren’t either.

Our resume sucks right now.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If we go by the numbers we shouldn’t be close.

If it’s just because it’s a Covid year and committee has quotas to fill from the big conference teams then okay..
Right now though we are lucky to be on the deep bubble.

We have 2 good wins. Northeastern and Virginia Tech.

That isn’t a NCAAT resume.

If we beat Louisville, Georgia Tech and North Carolina I will crunch the numbers.

Pittsburgh swept us they aren’t even on a single bracket matrix projection.
Georgia Tech looks decent they aren’t either.

Our resume sucks right now.

I’m just saying our fans are generally wrong about this. That was it. I agree we need to win more games.