The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[kirbivore]

In the committee mock bracket this weekend only UVA made top 16 from ACC

 

[samspann1]

this thread may as well be pinned for eternity

 

[upperdeck]

if we play well we get in.. if we dont we wont.. better than some years where i think we had less control over it.

 

[OrangeDW]

I’m just saying our fans are generally wrong about this. That was it. I agree we need to win more games.

Syracuse fans going into 2016: “The tourney committee always screws us!”

Everybody else after the 2018 brackets were revealed: “The tourney committee always lets Syracuse in if it’s close!”

 

[upperdeck]

about the only history that matters is that if SU gets in it usually plays well enough to justify the decision unlike many of the times we didnt get in and those teams that got in tanked..

 

[jncuse]

if we play well we get in.. if we dont we wont.. better than some years where i think we had less control over it.

I think we are in a somewhat worse situation than most prior years in terms of controlling our destiny... or at least what we need to reasonably do to get in the tournament.

 

[jncuse]

With the use of archive.org I compared where we are at on the bracket matrix now vs. prior years.

February 15, 2020 - ZERO people had us in

https://web.archive.org/web/20200216235550/http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

February 16, 2019 - 95 out of 95 had us in (we were projected a 9 seed)

https://web.archive.org/web/20190218002810/http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

February 14, 2018 - 71 out of 105 (we were an 11 seed, 3rd last team in)

https://web.archive.org/web/20180215123144/http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Will check 2017, 2016, 2015 later.

Based on the analysis, I sort of want to take back a comment I emphasized earlier in this thread. I said people typically oversell what we need to do to get in the tournament -- and that is true but this year we are in a much bigger hole so it may not hold. In prior years, if I said we could go 3-3 or 3-4, or even lose 3 of 4 games for example and still get in, people would not buy that (incorrectly). This year we do not have that luxury level at all - we need to rise above our level of play to close the season.

 

[jncuse]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

Down from 7 to 6 brackets on bracketmatrix.com/

Not a great weekend for us.

Among the teams they think we are fighting with for spots, UConn got a nice victory over Xavier, St Louis, Richmond and Maryland won, and Penn State lost to Nebraska. Maryland beat Minnesota, which was a good win for them.

Mississippi beat hapless South Carolina Marshall beat hapless Middle Tennessee and St Johns still hasn't played since that awful loss to a terrible Butler team.

The B1G is getting enormous respect.

UMd's win over Minnesota got them to 11-10. PSU is 7-10. How are they being considered?

The BIG had 11 teams making my Fake NCAA tournament last year. (Some may remember that I simulated the conference tourney games and the NCAA tournament using the "What if Sports" tool). Things broke right for the B10 in my simulation, as they were perhaps more likely to get 10 entering that simulation.

I think this was largely in line with the last bracket matrix projection before the season closed which I think had 11.

The Big Ten has done really well OOC the last few years, but fairly recently it was quite different. Back in 2019 (or perhaps 2018), the Big Ten did so bad OOC that I think it only got 4 teams in... IIRC, Nebraska was 13-5 and did not get in.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Palm doesn't have us among the last four out, which at this point isn't surprising. We seem to need a big last few weeks here to really get close.

Uconn as a 9 seed makes no sense to me.

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.

www.cbssports.com

 

[upperdeck]

so many results make no sense this yr. how to even factor in teams playing off long layoffs losing players, strange schedules

 

[Fly Rodder]

Still

One day, hopefully soon,we won't be bubbly. I mean once Dior & Chance & Mac are here, we're going to be unstoppable.

 

[jdubs30]

At this point we have 5 games left (I know JB hinted we might get a 6th).

as of now, there no “bad losses” left on our schedule. Every team we have left will most likely stay in the top 75 of the NET.

While there won’t be an opportunity for a top 25 win (unless we reschedule FSU), any win we get moving forward will be a solid.

this is simply a numbers game for us, I believe a 3-2 finish puts us on the right side of the bubble, and 1 ACCT win should do it. 4-1 would put us at 16-7 (10-6) and almost certainly in the tournament. If we can take care of a short handed Duke and Louisville, both on the road ... that would be fantastic.

This is a weird year.. and the fact that we have no bad losses will really help

 

[Halfmooncuse]

Speaking of “squeezing in” that’s what Joe Girard does with his uniform every game night so it’s important to remember that unlikely events do occur all the time. Hope is not lost!

Hater lol

 

[Knicks411]

Our fans always think we are out. Always.

Don't you know, every year the teams on the bubble win 24-26 games in the regular season.

Every year you seem to hear "the bubble is weak this year". If it's weak every year, maybe thats just what it is! It's generally mediocre teams with meh resumes. Which is very much what we are this year. (again)

 

[Newhouser]

If we go by the numbers we shouldn’t be close.

If it’s just because it’s a Covid year and committee has quotas to fill from the big conference teams then okay..
Right now though we are lucky to be on the deep bubble.

We have 2 good wins. Northeastern and Virginia Tech.

That isn’t a NCAAT resume.

If we beat Louisville, Georgia Tech and North Carolina I will crunch the numbers.

Pittsburgh swept us they aren’t even on a single bracket matrix projection.
Georgia Tech looks decent they aren’t either.

Our resume sucks right now.

the fact that Northeastern is one of our good wins sort of sums up our resume.

 

[UpstateSM]

I hope you guys realize this ends with us playing UConn in the First Four

 

[Alsacs]

The ACC is down.
We have to win a lot of games to get onto the bubble.

Piling up wins over non-NCAAT teams doesn’t get you in. We played 1 P5 nonconference game and thankfully beat a solid midmajor in Northeastern. Northeastern at North Carolina will be a game to watch tomorrow.

5 of our 6 ACC wins are against BC x2, NC State x2, Miami.
Those 3 are a combined 18-34 overall and not one is over .500.

Our 6th win is a good resume win over Virginia Tech.

This isn’t a NCAAT bubble team as of now.

We need quality wins. Louisville, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina are quality wins.

Duke and Notre Dame we should beat.
We need 2 of those 3 above to get on to the bubble.

 

[upperdeck]

the fact that Northeastern is one of our good wins sort of sums up our resume.

lets see how they do vs UNC tomorrow.

 

[OrangeDW]

I hope you guys realize this ends with us playing UConn in the First Four

I would hope both sides would agree to a Kadary Richmond vs. Andre Jackson game of 1 on 1 deciding which team moves on. Would be far more entertaining than a regular game.

 

[Cusefan0307]

lets see how they do vs UNC tomorrow.

UNC scheduled them purposely because they need a game like this too. Good on their part.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I would hope both sides would agree to a Kadary Richmond vs. Andre Jackson game of 1 on 1 deciding which team moves on. Would be far more entertaining than a regular game.

Oh we would boat race them if that was the scenario.

 

[Newhouser]

lets see how they do vs UNC tomorrow.

Was that the game where they lost their PG? He was hurting us if I remember correctly.

 

[Alsacs]

Was that the game where they lost their PG? He was hurting us if I remember correctly.

Yeah but Quincy and Joe did a good job against them.

Carolina’s size is going to eat them up.

 

[Knicks411]

The ACC is down.
We have to win a lot of games to get onto the bubble.

Piling up wins over non-NCAAT teams doesn’t get you in. We played 1 P5 nonconference game and thankfully beat a solid midmajor in Northeastern. Northeastern at North Carolina will be a game to watch tomorrow.

5 of our 6 ACC wins are against BC x2, NC State x2, Miami.
Those 3 are a combined 18-34 overall and not one is over .500.

Our 6th win is a good resume win over Virginia Tech.

This isn’t a NCAAT bubble team as of now.

We need quality wins. Louisville, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina are quality wins.

Duke and Notre Dame we should beat.
We need 2 of those 3 above to get on to the bubble.

It's crazy, I have for sure not been as in on college hoops this year for whatever reason, but I was looking at the ACC, it's kinda shocking how down the league is. (and maybe there's an issue since there were a lot fewer intraconference games this year)

The top two teams per Ken Pom in the ACC are UVA (#10) and FSU (#13). Louisville is 30, Va Tech 33, Duke 34, UNC 43, Clemson 45. 7 teams in the top 50, which I suppose isn't horrible, but the highest ranked team is 10, and only 2 in the top 25.

Last year was a little similar, Duke 5 and Louisville 9, but you still had FSU 15, but then your next best team was Virginia at 42. Still3 teams in the top 15, plus #5.

2019 was more like it, UVA 1, Duke 4, UNC 7, Virginia Tech 13, FSU 14, Louisville 23
2018 UVA 2, Duke 3, UNC 8, Clemson 14, FSU 27
2017 UNC 3, Louisville 9, UVA 12, Duke 14, FSU 26, ND 27
2016 UNC 2, UVA 4, Louisville 7, Miami 15, Duke 17, US 27
2015 Duke 3, UVA 6, ND 9, UNC 10, Louisville 17
And finish it off with 2014, our first year in UVA 4, Duke 8, Pitt 16, US 18, UNC 29

So point being, usually the league has 3 teams in the top 10, with 1 or 2 of those teams being top 5, plus a bunch more in the teens/early 20s. This year I don't think there is any real elite team, and there are only 2 total in the top 25. A lot fewer chances to rack up quality wins

 

[UpstateSM]

I would hope both sides would agree to a Kadary Richmond vs. Andre Jackson game of 1 on 1 deciding which team moves on. Would be far more entertaining than a regular game.

We win 1 on 1 but Jackson smokes our entire roster in a dunk contest