I think I'm actually wrong and you're right, but just barely. Here's my math/explanation/assumptions...
S.U. has claimed in numerous sources/stories to have 45,000 alumni in the NYC "metro" region. I'm
assuming they're defining the metro region by the
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and not the Combined Statistical Area (CSA). The former would include 12 counties in New Jersey, but no part of Connecticut. If it's the latter though, it would skew the numbers quite a bit so take everything else with a grain of salt.
Next, I'm utilizing the 2010 alumni numbers found
here. That gives us # of alumni in all of NY state as 75,136 and in New Jersey as 13,226. Note that not all of New Jersey is considered part of the NYC metro area, but only 12 counties. Based on 2009 census numbers, 6,502,267 of NJ's 8,821,155 population lives in those counties, or roughly 73%. If we
assume an equal distribution to our alumni number (not necessarily a safe assumption, as it's very possible northern NJ residents are far more likely to attend Syracuse than their Southern counterparts), than that gives us 9,663 NYC metro area alums living in NJ.
Subtract that number from our original total of 45,000, and we're left with 35,337 residents living in the New York State portion of the NYC metro area. Subtract
that number from our original NY total and we get 39,799 S.U. alums living in Upstate NY (e.g. Syracuse, Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, Watertown, et al).