The set up for this Marquette game feels eerily similar to 2011

[JeremyCuse]

Obviously the stakes and both teams are much better but a lot of the posts I saw yesterday looked awful similar to 2011. Just like this year in 2011 SU lost to Marquette on the road in a game I think many of us felt SU should have won. Also just like this year the loss to Marquette occurred during the "February Swoon" part of the schedule. The reason I bring this whole thing up is that a lot of posters including myself leading up to that game in 2011 felt that SU had the advantage in a tourney rematch and that Syracuse would be able to make adjustments and get a win.

Now let me say that I believe this is a game SU can and should win, were not playing Florida or Lville or Duke or Ohio State like other teams will be today and Sunday, from a seed standpoint this is a great matchup for SU. However, I feel this game could be a lot closer then most people think. Marquette knows the zone fairly well and based on a few articles I read today the Marquette players are extremely confident in facing the zone which can be good or bad but id prefer the lack of confidence we saw in Indiana players.

To me this is going to have to be the game where SU's offense comes to life and carries the team over the hump. I dont see Marquette struggling as bad as Montana/Cal/ or IU and based on the ridiculous success our 3pt defense has had versus some good shooting teams this tourney were likely due for a game where the other team hits some shots from deep. I hope I am wrong but I am much more concerned about this game then I was for Indiana. I just hope JS and CJ both show up and Mike plays within himself and doesnt try to duplicate Thursday again.

 

[jdubs30]

Obviously the stakes and both teams are much better but a lot of the posts I saw yesterday looked awful similar to 2011. Just like this year in 2011 SU lost to Marquette on the road in a game I think many of us felt SU should have won. Also just like this year the loss to Marquette occurred during the "February Swoon" part of the schedule. The reason I bring this whole thing up is that a lot of posters including myself leading up to that game in 2011 felt that SU had the advantage in a tourney rematch and that Syracuse would be able to make adjustments and get a win.

Now let me say that I believe this is a game SU can and should win, were not playing Florida or Lville or Duke or Ohio State like other teams will be today and Sunday, from a seed standpoint this is a great matchup for SU. However, I feel this game could be a lot closer then most people think. Marquette knows the zone fairly well and based on a few articles I read today the Marquette players are extremely confident in facing the zone which can be good or bad but id prefer the lack of confidence we saw in Indiana players.

To me this is going to have to be the game where SU's offense comes to life and carries the team over the hump. I dont see Marquette struggling as bad as Montana/Cal/ or IU and based on the ridiculous success our 3pt defense has had versus some good shooting teams this tourney were likely due for a game where the other team hits some shots from deep. I hope I am wrong but I am much more concerned about this game then I was for Indiana. I just hope JS and CJ both show up and Mike plays within himself and doesnt try to duplicate Thursday again.

Marquette had 2 players on that team that played more than 25 minutes in that game and are on the team now, Otule and Caudogan. Crowder, DJO and Butler (3 NBA players) all had good games.

Our zone wasn't that great that year. I see what you're saying, but it's hard to draw comparisons, the only things similar from 2011 and 2013 are the coaches.

We're playing really well right now and I think we're on a roll, we didn't have any momentum in 2011.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Marquette had 2 players on that team that played more than 25 minutes in that game and are on the team now, Otule and Caudogan. Crowder, DJO and Butler (3 NBA players) all had good games.

Our zone wasn't that great that year. I see what you're saying, but it's hard to draw comparisons, the only things similar from 2011 and 2013 are the coaches.

We're playing really well right now and I think we're on a roll, we didn't have any momentum in 2011.

Totally agree with you about the players being pretty much a wholesale change on both teams and the momentum SU has. I think those are both big factors and why I think SU will win. That being said Marquette turned that game into a rock fight and I fear there likely to do the same today as well. Marquette is a real bad 3 pt shooting team but with us likely to play a lot of attention to Gardner I worry about Caudogan, Lockett, Blue, Wilson getting open looks that with our luck they will actually be knocking down for a change. My greatest fear is that this turns into an offensive half court game where SU just cant keep up based on our well documented offensive woes. Theres goign to be one game this tourney where the D is only good or OK versus outstanding which it has been 3 games straight. Can our offense pick up the slack? Thats my biggest concern.

 

[arrow2arinzesknee]

And this Marquette team is very poor statistically from deep, we gotta let then shoot threes and body up underneath, I'm counting on JAB to make better adjustments than buzz

 

[orangenauburn]

remember this stat:

35-7

FT disparity

Marquette ONLY beats us because they ALWAYS shoot way more foul shots than us.

Also in the tournament loss a few years back, it was a 23-7 advantage to them ... FT's have been the ONLY reason they beat us.

 

[jdubs30]

Totally agree with you about the players being pretty much a wholesale change on both teams and the momentum SU has. I think those are both big factors and why I think SU will win. That being said Marquette turned that game into a rock fight and I fear there likely to do the same today as well. Marquette is a real bad 3 pt shooting team but with us likely to play a lot of attention to Gardner I worry about Caudogan, Lockett, Blue, Wilson getting open looks that with our luck they will actually be knocking down for a change. My greatest fear is that this turns into an offensive half court game where SU just cant keep up based on our well documented offensive woes. Theres goign to be one game this tourney where the D is only good or OK versus outstanding which it has been 3 games straight. Can our offense pick up the slack? Thats my biggest concern.

I haven't trust our ability to win in low scoring, rock fight type games in years, we've always been better designed in the open court and running. However, this years usually wins those games in the 50s; if Marquette wants to slow us down, fine, it just limits their possessions against the zone.

remember this stat:

35-7

FT disparity

Marquette ONLY beats us because they ALWAYS shoot way more foul shots than us.

Also in the tournament loss a few years back, it was a 23-7 advantage to them ... FT's have been the ONLY reason they beat us.

Actually in the 2011 tourney game the FTs were like 26-7 in favor of them as well...

 

[retro44]

marquette had 55 bench points earlier this year against us,will buzz go to the bench as much with that pressure of making it to the final 4?

 

[jdubs30]

marquette had 55 bench points earlier this year against us,will buzz go to the bench as much with that pressure of making it to the final 4?

He was asked about Jake Thomas (he hit that corner 3 against us) who's barely played in the tourney, Buzz said he would absolutely play him.

 

[HurleyForHeisman]

I hope I am wrong but I am much more concerned about this game then I was for Indiana. I just hope JS and CJ both show up and Mike plays within himself and doesnt try to duplicate Thursday again.

I agree with you. When the brackets came out, I could easily see SU getting to the Final Four as long as Marquette got knocked off by somebody. This is the nightmare scenario. Marquette matches up very well against SU, and they've got the conference pride card to play. I'd say 80% likelihood that SU loses today. Like you, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[pearl31]

I'd say 80% likelihood that SU loses today.

that's just... wow...

 

[Marsh01]

I agree with you. When the brackets came out, I could easily see SU getting to the Final Four as long as Marquette got knocked off by somebody. This is the nightmare scenario. Marquette matches up very well against SU, and they've got the conference pride card to play. I'd say 80% likelihood that SU loses today. Like you, I hope I'm wrong.

Wow you are out of your mind.

We win today.

 

[RF2044]

Wow you are out of your mind.

We win today.

Sometimes the pessimism expressed on the board is astounding.


Let's Go Orange!!!

 

[PeteCalvin]

Why do we have so many pansies on this board? Really guys, where are your balls? Our guys are ready for this. I don't see a huge FT discrepancy materializing in this game. I think we go at Gardner and Otule early. Gotta turn the tables and get them in foul trouble.

 

[Flacusian]

Look, 80% is a really abysmal assessment for a two teams seeded pretty much the same and especially in light of how well we have been playing lately. Just out of curiosity, what kind of chance did you give SU versus Georgetown in the BE tourney? After all, they had only recently giving us a shellacking for the history books. How did that game turn out?

These kids will be ready to play and you can bet that James Arthur Boeheim will have a great game plan to counter the strategies employed by Marquette in our AWAY close loss earlier this year WHEN WE WERE IN THE MIDST OF A HORRIFIC SWOON.

Ok. Having said that, and in an effort to offset the outlier percentage of 80% we lose. I predict, 81% we win. (And I must add that's grossly conservative assessment)

 

[OrangeFoo]

Sometimes the pessimism expressed on the board is astounding.


Let's Go Orange!!!

Sometimes the optimism expressed on the board in light of facts is astounding...

I am as much of an orange fan as anyone but my eyes tell me that this is a really poor match up for us. People need to realize that there are two teams playing here today, both teams are playing much better than we faced off in the regular season, and we are the ones wearing the roadies today. I'm not guaranteeing a loss by any means but this is going to be our toughest match up to date by a large amount and we will lose if we play offense as poorly as we did against Indiana or Cal because we can't rely on Marquette going into the fetal position against our D.

 

[BuffOrange]

Marquette isn't just statistically poor from deep - they're statistically poor for an Elite 8 team period. I mean, Iowa and Missouri are ahead of them in kenpom. The line has been going up in our favor. Everyone knows we are better.
All of the 2011 worry is about as rational as the blue jersey jinx.

 

[OrangeJEM]

Marquette is 24th on Kenpom, we are 8th.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Sometimes the optimism expressed on the board in light of facts is astounding...

I am as much of an orange fan as anyone but my eyes tell me that this is a really poor match up for us. People need to realize that there are two teams playing here today, both teams are playing much better than we faced off in the regular season, and we are the ones wearing the roadies today. I'm not guaranteeing a loss by any means but this is going to be our toughest match up to date by a large amount and we will lose if we play offense as poorly as we did against Indiana or Cal because we can't rely on Marquette going into the fetal position against our D.

Good post, hard to really argue with any of that. People arent giving Marquette much of a chance here, I just hope the team isnt thinking the same way.

 

[cto]

.
As long as we don't have the same refs as 2011, we'll be fine.

 

[RF2044]

Sometimes the optimism expressed on the board in light of facts is astounding...

I am as much of an orange fan as anyone but my eyes tell me that this is a really poor match up for us. People need to realize that there are two teams playing here today, both teams are playing much better than we faced off in the regular season, and we are the ones wearing the roadies today. I'm not guaranteeing a loss by any means but this is going to be our toughest match up to date by a large amount and we will lose if we play offense as poorly as we did against Indiana or Cal because we can't rely on Marquette going into the fetal position against our D.

What facts specifically are you referring to?

The post I responded to gave us an 80% chance of losing. Is that a "fact?" People said that Indiana was a poor matchup, too. And Cal. And Montana. And Georgetown / Pitt in the BET--two more teams familiar with us who don't go into the fetal position against our D. How'd those games turn out?

Marquette has had our number recently. They also had an absurd free throw disparity that enabled them to chip away at a decent lead we built at their place, and eventually win a close game. 35-7 is a fact.

I don't expect them to have that ridiculous of a free throw differential today.

Sure, we can lose. We can also blow these MFers out. Here's hoping for the latter.

I expect the Big East revenge tour to continue.


Let's Go Orange!!!

 

[cusetown1]

What facts specifically are you referring to?

The post I responded to gave us an 80% chance of losing. Is that a fact? People said that Indiana was a poor matchup, too. And Cal. And Montana. And Georgetown / Pitt in the BET.

Marquette has had our number recently. They also had an absurd free throw disparity that enabled them to chip away at a decent lead we built at their place, and eventually win a close game. 35-7 is a fact.

I don't expect them to have that ridiculous of a free throw differential today.

Sure, we can lose. We can also blow these MFers out. Here's hoping for the latter.

I expect the Big East revenge tour to continue.

I think he has it backwards he should have said "sometimes the NEGATIVISM on this board in light of the facts is astounding"

 

[Orangefan1]

Jeremy do you ever post something positive?

 

[OrangeFoo]

What facts specifically are you referring to?

The post I responded to gave us an 80% chance of losing. Is that a "fact?" People said that Indiana was a poor matchup, too. And Cal. And Montana. And Georgetown / Pitt in the BET--two more teams familiar with us who don't go into the fetal position against our D. How'd those games turn out?

Marquette has had our number recently. They also had an absurd free throw disparity that enabled them to chip away at a decent lead we built at their place, and eventually win a close game. 35-7 is a fact.

I don't expect them to have that ridiculous of a free throw differential today.

Sure, we can lose. We can also blow these MFers out. Here's hoping for the latter.

I expect the Big East revenge tour to continue.


Let's Go Orange!!!

I am hoping for an old fashioned butt kicking where we are up 25 with 5 minutes to go.

Dirty is due for a big game where he hits for 6 or 7 threes... I hope that today is the day.

 

[Madbiker]

There are no surprises today. We know them and they know us. It comes down to talent and execution. If we shoot the ball well, play even on the boards, keep them off the line from shooting a ton of FT's we will win. Take away the paint, make them shoot more 3's than they want.

 

[omniorange]

Another thing in our favor is that of the 18 Big East teams to make the F4, only one of them ever lost their 1st game in the BET.

That one was UConn in 2009, who lost that thrilling 6OT game to us and entered the tourney as a #1 seed. And that year had about nine teams that would have been a #1 seed in this year's bracket. Meanwhile Marquette lost to an average ND team this BET and is not as good as either their 2009 or 2011 teams that were seeded as #6 and #11.

While anything can happen, Marquette is not UConn of 2009. So I don't see them being the second Big East F4 team that lost its first game in the BET but wind up going to the F4.

Cheers,
Neil