SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In it’s 14 years, 28 teams have played for the national championship. 17 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 10 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. Four had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only last year and in 2006 did we have a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
KANSAS STATE 10-0 (422-177) #1
11/17 at Baylor 4-5 (384-355)
12/1 Texas 8-2 (396-291) #15
Collin Klein came back from a possible concussion to lead his team to a road win over tough TCU. Baylor can score and Texas seems to be getting better but that one is at home. But there’s no conference title game because it’s not really the “Big 12”. The Wildcat’s chances are looking pretty good.
OREGON 10-0 (548-223) #2
11/17 Stanford 8-2 (291-172) #13
11/24 at Oregon State 7-2 (233-172) #16
The irresistible force has some objects that might be hard to move before they make reservations for the national title game. Not only do they have to get past Stanford and Oregon State but they will have to beat USC again or maybe a reviewed UCLA, (8-2 and #17) in the conference title game. A tough schedule is a double-edged sword: it’s harder to win them all but if you do, you’ve got the best resume when the decisions get made.
NOTRE DAME 10-0 (261-111) #3
11/17 Wake Forest 5-5 (201-289)
11/24 at Southern California 7-3 (369-235) #18
Somebody said the Irish had to play, “pathetic Boston College and Wake Forest” before the USC game. Wake Forest isn’t pathetic. If Pittsburgh could throw a scare into the Irish, the Deacons might be able to do the same. But USC is still the big hurdle. How cool would it be to see a 12-0 Notre Dame team watch two schools that have never won it play for the title?
Comment: Ohio State is 10-0 (399-239) but on probation. I now think Oregon is the best team in the country but they have the biggest hurdles to overcome. I think they’ll do it but the fact that Kansas State and Notre Dame have simpler roads to the title game, (both in terms of the number of games they’d have to win the quality of the opposition). can’t be discounted.
Since Alabama’s loss makes it less certain that we’ll have two undefeated teams left for the title game, I am going to list the one-loss BCS level teams as well:
ALABAMA 9-1 (370-111) #4
11/17 Western Carolina 1-9 (257-400) FCS
11/24 Auburn 2-8 (173-284)
This team seems to have lost it’s mojo, barely getting by an LSU team that isn’t as good as last year’s and then losing at home to Texas A&M. But they are not out of this. They only fell to #4. They will cruise to 11-1. If they can win the SEC title game and two of Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame lose, the Tide will get a chance to defend it’s title. But can they get back to being the team that looked so impressive earlier in the season playing lousy teams? Western Carolina’s only win was in their opener vs. Mars Hill. Mars Hill.
GEORGIA 9-1 (369-188) #5
11/17 Georgia Southern 8-2 (376-189) FCS
11/24 Georgia Tech 5-5 (382-302)
This team could win the SEC title: but would they, even at 11-1, be playing for the BCS title? I doubt it.
FLORIDA 9-1 (261-129) #6
11/17 Jacksonville State 6-4 (322-334)
11/24 at Florida State 9-1 (404-130) #10
They won’t win the SEC East and won’t play for the conference title or the national title. But if the knock off the Seminoles, they’ll be 11-1. It’s not impossible that one of the teams playing for the title will have the same record.
FLORIDA STATE 9-1 (404-130) #10
11/17 at Maryland 4-6 (189-240)
11/24 Florida (261-129) #6
They’ve already beaten Clemson, 49-37 and are the likely ACC champs. Their ranking could rise with a win over Florida but probably not enough to make them a title contender. Too bad because this is their best team in years.
CLEMSON 9-1 #11 (429-224)
11/17 North Carolina State 6-4 (266-223)
11/24 South Carolina 8-2 (326-185) #9
This is a better Clemson team than the one West Virginia blew out last year in the Orange Bowl. They have a much better defense. With Lattimore out for SC, I can see them winding up a strong 11-1. But I think they are rated too far down the list to be thinking about the national title game.
LOUISVILLE 9-1 (322-246) #19
11/24 Connecticut 4-6 (173-184)
11/29 at Rutgers 8-1 (236-121) #22
Whatever tiny little chance the Cardinals had of flying into the BCS title game got ground into the field turf of the Carrier Dome but they can still win the conference and play in the BCS.
RUTGERS 8-1 (236-121) #22
11/17 at Cincinnati 7-2 (308-169)
11/24 at Pittsburgh 4-6 (275-227)
11/29 Louisville 9-1 (322-246) #19
I have a feeling that the Scarlett Knights will be off this list by the time they play Louisville.
Overall: I still don’t think a one loss team will be in the title game. I think K-State runs the table. I’m not sure about ND-USC but the Trojans sure aren’t what they were cracked up to be. Oregon, despite their difficult schedule, still looks to me like the best team in the country and the eventual national champion.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Louisiana Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Ohio U. are all undefeated but none of them are gong to be playing for the national title.
Therefore I’m only going to list teams from the Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year. I’m also excluding Ohio State because they are on probation.
The BCS standings are out now and they list a Top 25 so I will use their rankings, rather than the writer’s or coach’s polls.
KANSAS STATE 10-0 (422-177) #1
11/17 at Baylor 4-5 (384-355)
12/1 Texas 8-2 (396-291) #15
Collin Klein came back from a possible concussion to lead his team to a road win over tough TCU. Baylor can score and Texas seems to be getting better but that one is at home. But there’s no conference title game because it’s not really the “Big 12”. The Wildcat’s chances are looking pretty good.
OREGON 10-0 (548-223) #2
11/17 Stanford 8-2 (291-172) #13
11/24 at Oregon State 7-2 (233-172) #16
The irresistible force has some objects that might be hard to move before they make reservations for the national title game. Not only do they have to get past Stanford and Oregon State but they will have to beat USC again or maybe a reviewed UCLA, (8-2 and #17) in the conference title game. A tough schedule is a double-edged sword: it’s harder to win them all but if you do, you’ve got the best resume when the decisions get made.
NOTRE DAME 10-0 (261-111) #3
11/17 Wake Forest 5-5 (201-289)
11/24 at Southern California 7-3 (369-235) #18
Somebody said the Irish had to play, “pathetic Boston College and Wake Forest” before the USC game. Wake Forest isn’t pathetic. If Pittsburgh could throw a scare into the Irish, the Deacons might be able to do the same. But USC is still the big hurdle. How cool would it be to see a 12-0 Notre Dame team watch two schools that have never won it play for the title?
Comment: Ohio State is 10-0 (399-239) but on probation. I now think Oregon is the best team in the country but they have the biggest hurdles to overcome. I think they’ll do it but the fact that Kansas State and Notre Dame have simpler roads to the title game, (both in terms of the number of games they’d have to win the quality of the opposition). can’t be discounted.
Since Alabama’s loss makes it less certain that we’ll have two undefeated teams left for the title game, I am going to list the one-loss BCS level teams as well:
ALABAMA 9-1 (370-111) #4
11/17 Western Carolina 1-9 (257-400) FCS
11/24 Auburn 2-8 (173-284)
This team seems to have lost it’s mojo, barely getting by an LSU team that isn’t as good as last year’s and then losing at home to Texas A&M. But they are not out of this. They only fell to #4. They will cruise to 11-1. If they can win the SEC title game and two of Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame lose, the Tide will get a chance to defend it’s title. But can they get back to being the team that looked so impressive earlier in the season playing lousy teams? Western Carolina’s only win was in their opener vs. Mars Hill. Mars Hill.
GEORGIA 9-1 (369-188) #5
11/17 Georgia Southern 8-2 (376-189) FCS
11/24 Georgia Tech 5-5 (382-302)
This team could win the SEC title: but would they, even at 11-1, be playing for the BCS title? I doubt it.
FLORIDA 9-1 (261-129) #6
11/17 Jacksonville State 6-4 (322-334)
11/24 at Florida State 9-1 (404-130) #10
They won’t win the SEC East and won’t play for the conference title or the national title. But if the knock off the Seminoles, they’ll be 11-1. It’s not impossible that one of the teams playing for the title will have the same record.
FLORIDA STATE 9-1 (404-130) #10
11/17 at Maryland 4-6 (189-240)
11/24 Florida (261-129) #6
They’ve already beaten Clemson, 49-37 and are the likely ACC champs. Their ranking could rise with a win over Florida but probably not enough to make them a title contender. Too bad because this is their best team in years.
CLEMSON 9-1 #11 (429-224)
11/17 North Carolina State 6-4 (266-223)
11/24 South Carolina 8-2 (326-185) #9
This is a better Clemson team than the one West Virginia blew out last year in the Orange Bowl. They have a much better defense. With Lattimore out for SC, I can see them winding up a strong 11-1. But I think they are rated too far down the list to be thinking about the national title game.
LOUISVILLE 9-1 (322-246) #19
11/24 Connecticut 4-6 (173-184)
11/29 at Rutgers 8-1 (236-121) #22
Whatever tiny little chance the Cardinals had of flying into the BCS title game got ground into the field turf of the Carrier Dome but they can still win the conference and play in the BCS.
RUTGERS 8-1 (236-121) #22
11/17 at Cincinnati 7-2 (308-169)
11/24 at Pittsburgh 4-6 (275-227)
11/29 Louisville 9-1 (322-246) #19
I have a feeling that the Scarlett Knights will be off this list by the time they play Louisville.
Overall: I still don’t think a one loss team will be in the title game. I think K-State runs the table. I’m not sure about ND-USC but the Trojans sure aren’t what they were cracked up to be. Oregon, despite their difficult schedule, still looks to me like the best team in the country and the eventual national champion.
