SWC75
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Each fall for several years, I’ve been doing a series of posts I call “the Undefeated”, in which I keep track of the undefeated teams and their remaining schedules so we can assess the likelihood of their remaining undefeated and play in, at first the BCS championship game and now the 4 team playoff. When there were fewer undefeated teams than the 2 and then 4 teams that would get to compete for the national championship, I switched to one loss teams. Eventually I introduced two other competitions: the Pesci bowl, named after vertically challenged but feisty character actor Joe Pesci for the two best non-power conference BCS team and the Ty-Dee Bowl, named after a toilet cleaner, for the two worst BCS teams.
In 2020, I haven’t done The Undefeated because the Big 10 and Pac 12 had apparently cancelled their seasons and II wasn’t sure if there was even going to be a playoff. Apparently now there will be so I’m going todo a belated “Undefeated” post.
The situation among the ‘Group of Five’ is particularly interesting this year and the race for the Pesci Bowl is a hot one, with a big game between Coastal Carolina and Brigham Young today. And we might find ourselves in the Ty-Dee Bowl so I felt the need to scout the “opposition” to see the likelihood of our staying out of it.
POWER FIVE PLAYOFF
ALABAMA 9-0 (443-165) ranked #1
12/12 at Arkansas 3-6 (254-297)
Comment: The Tide will roll into the SEC title game against FLORIDA 8-1 (378-226) ranked #6 with a 10-0 record.
COLORADO 4-0 (127-97) ranked #21 (#22 by coaches)
12/11 Utah 1-2 (68-81)
Comment: The Buffs will be favored to go 5-0 but played one out-of-conference game, (San Diego State). But USC is undefeated, too, and in the same division. The Trojans could go 5-0 with all games being in the conference.
NOTRE DAME 10-0 (377-171) ranked #2
Comment: With Wake Forest canceled, the next stop is a rematch with Clemson in the ACC title game. Can they do it again?
OHIO STATE 5-0 (233-116) ranked #4 (3rd by writers)
Comment: After the Michigan game was cancelled, the Big Ten relented and changed their rule that 6 wins were necessary to get into the Big 10 title game. Sorry, Indiana.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 4-0 (133-87) ranked #15 (16th by writers)
12/12 at UCLA 3-2 (163-124)
Comment: If USC winds up 5-0 in conference and Colorado goes 4-0, is that a tie? WASHINGTON 3-1 (121-90) awaits in the conference title game.
The one loss teams:
CLEMSON 9-1 (460-183) ranked #3 (4th by writers)
Comment: Rematch of the game of the year coming up vs. NOTRE DAME 10-0 (377-171) ranked #2 in the ACC title game.
FLORIDA 8-1 (378-226) ranked #6
12/12 Louisiana State 3-5 (230-267)
Comment: The Gators will be in the SEC title game against ALABAMA 9-0 (443-165) ranked #1.
INDIANA 6-1 (211-136) ranked #12 (8th by writers and 9th by coaches)
12/12 Purdue 2-4 (163-179)
Comment: They won’t be in the Big 10 title game and their ranking is too low to get them into the playoff. A lot teams would have to lose this weekend and the next.
University of MIAMI 8-1 (314-198) ranked #10 (9th by writers and 8th by coaches))
12/12 North Carolina 7-3 (411-286)
12/19 Georgia Tech 3-6 (219-334)
Comment: The ‘Canes problem is that they can’t get past Notre Dame or Clemson into the ACC title game. If we had the normal divisions, they’d be playing Clemson in that game.
NORTHWESTERN 5-1 (149-92) ranked #14 (15th by writers)
12/12 Illinois 2-4 (130-195)
Comment: The Wildcats will be in the Big 10 title game against OHIO STATE 5-0 (233-116) ranked #4 (3rd by writers)
TEXAS A&M 7-1 (251-177) ranked #5
12/12 Mississippi 4-4 (318-310)
12/19 at Tennessee 2-6 (160-250)
Comment: The Aggies can’t make the SEC titles game as they already lost to ‘Bama but they could finish 9-1.
WASHINGTON 3-1 (121-90) unranked
12/12 at OREGON 3-1 (154-119) ranked #23
Comment: The winner of the Washington-Oregon game will play in the Pac 10 title game.
Overall: Everyone in the Big 12 has 2 losses but they will play a full schedule so they still might get some consideration. But it’s likely between Notre Dame, Clemson (if they beat Notre Dame), Alabama, Ohio State, Florida if they can knock of the Tide or possibly the Pac 12 champ.
PESCI BOWL
BUFFALO 4-0 (203-98) (ranked 24th by writers)
12/12 Akron 1-4 (96-192)
Comment: They will face the WESTERN MICHIGAN– BALL STATE winner in the MAC title game on 12/18.
CINCINNATI 8-0 (327-120) ranked #8 (7th by writers and coaches)
12/12 at TULSA 6-1 (194-139) ranked #24
Comment: The AAC doesn’t have divisions but they do have a 1 vs. 2 conference title game scheduled for 12/19. That could also be against Tulsa or it could be against Memphis 6-2 (265-235) who hasn’t played Tulsa and who plays Tulane 5-5 (354-278) today. The Bearcats will be heavy favorites to go 10-0 in any case.
COASTAL CAROLINA 10-0 (370-168) ranked #13 (11th by writers)
12/12 at Troy 4-5 (234-241)
Comment: The Chanticleers will play LOUISIANA in the Sun Belt title game on 12/19
SAN JOSE STATE 5-0 (152-85)
12/12 NEVADA-Reno 6-1 (219-153)
Comment: The Mountain West championship game will likely be between the SJS-Nevada winner and BOISE STATE 4-1 (200-147) on 12/18.
I’ve got to add in:
BALL STATE 4-1 (172-138)
12/12 WESTERN MICHIGAN 4-1 (223-175)
Comment: The winner gets Buffalo in the MAC title game.
BOISE STATE 4-1 (200-147)
12/12 at Wyoming 2-3 (150-109)
Comment: The Broncos have had their last two games cancelled.
BRIGHAM YOUNG 9-1 (445-147) ranked #18 (14th by writers, 16th by coaches)
12/12 San Diego State 3-3 (154-97)
Comment: The Cougars are an independent, (why did they leave the Mountain West?) so there is no conference championship game.
KENT STATE 3-1 (199-152)
Comment: They got crushed by Buffalo, 41-70 and their remaining games have bene canceled so their season is done.
LIBERTY 9-1 (383-192) (ranked 21st by writers and coaches)
Comment: They have completed their schedule and are an independent with no conference title game. They lost on a missed field goal to NC State but beat us and Virginia Tech. they have too many teams to climb over but will be hiding in the bushes if there are a series of upsets.
LOUISIANA 9-1 (339-218) ranked #19 (17th by writers and coaches)
Comment: they have completed their regular season. They have a rematch with the only team to beat them, COASTAL CAROLINA, in the Sun belt title game on 12/19. CCU won the first game 30-27. The Ragin Cajuns could get a big step up by winning the rematch. They also beat Iowa State, 31-14 in Ames, Iowa.
MARSHALL 7-1 (262-91)
12/11 at Florida International 0-5 (112-162)
Comment: It shows to go you: 7-0 Marshall lost to 1-2 Rice 0-20 thanks to 5 turnovers They will play Texas-San Antonio 7-4 (315-277) in the C-USA title game on 12/18.
NEVADA-Reno 6-1 (219-153)
12/12 at SAN JOSE STATE 5-0 (152-85)
Comment: If they upset the Spartans they will face Boise State for the Mountain West title.
TULSA 6-1 (194-139) ranked #24 (18th by writers, 19th by coaches)
12/12 CINCINNATI 8-0 (327-120) ranked #8
Comment: the Golden Hurricane could project themselves into the race with an upset of the Bearcats.
WESTERN MICHIGAN 4-1 (223-175)
12/12 at BALL STATE 4-1 (172-138)
Comment: The 4-0 Broncos managed to lose to 0-4 Eastern Michigan, 42-53.
Overall: I think CINCINNATI and COASTAL CAROLINA have the inside track on the Pesci Bowl. But they need to beat TULSA and LOUISIANA to get there.
TY-DEE BOWL
Maybe there should be two Ty-Dee Bowls, one for the worst power conference teams and one for the rest of BCS. If there were:
KANSAS 0-9 (142-414)
12/12 Texas 6-3 (372-262)
Comment: The Jayhawks have no talons and are very likely to go 0-10.
VANDERBILT 0-8 (116-294)
12/12 Tennessee 2-6 (160-250)
12/19 at Georgia 6-2 (250-165)
Comment: When is Tennessee going to finally resurrect itself? Not this year. They will be vulnerable in a rivalry game.
By comparison:
SYRACUSE 1-10 (196-360)
Comment: We have more losses than any other BCS team but at least we have a win and I don’t think we are quite as bad as the Jayhawks or the Commodores. Still, let’s root not just for SU but also for Texas, Tennessee and Georgia to keep us out of Power 5 Ty-Dee Bowl. Also, mention Georgia Tech, who turned the ball over 5 times and committed 15 penalties in our game, in your prayers.
Note: the Pac 12 has three winless teams: Utah 0-2, California and Arizona 0-3. Each has two games left. Everybody in the big 10 has won a game.
A Ty-Dee Bowl for the Group of Five and independents would likely be drawn from the following winless teams:
BOWLING GREEN 0-5 (54-194)
12/5 at AKRON 0-4 (65-189)
12/12 Miami University 2-1 (86-80)
Comments: The Falcons lost to 0-4 Akron, 3-31. Eastern Illinois won’t be playing until the spring so Dino’s teams are 1-15 this year.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 0-5 (112-162)
12/11 Marshall 7-1 (262-91)
Comment: A very good bet to reach 0-5
LOUISIANA-MONROE 0-10 (163-420)
12/12 at Troy 5-5 (263-241)
Comment: None of these teams will be able to match the Warhawk’s record of non-accomplishment. If they lose to troy than we will not have the most losses in the country.
MASSACHUSETTS 0-4 (12-161)
Comment: Their season is over, perfection thus achieved.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 0-5 (116-191)
12/12 at EASTERN MICHIGAN 1-4 (158-183)
Comments: see above.
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 0-5 (83-190)
12/12 Fresno State 3-2 (158-131)
Comments: A probable 0-6.
Overall: It’s Louisiana-Monroe against somebody.
In 2020, I haven’t done The Undefeated because the Big 10 and Pac 12 had apparently cancelled their seasons and II wasn’t sure if there was even going to be a playoff. Apparently now there will be so I’m going todo a belated “Undefeated” post.
The situation among the ‘Group of Five’ is particularly interesting this year and the race for the Pesci Bowl is a hot one, with a big game between Coastal Carolina and Brigham Young today. And we might find ourselves in the Ty-Dee Bowl so I felt the need to scout the “opposition” to see the likelihood of our staying out of it.
POWER FIVE PLAYOFF
ALABAMA 9-0 (443-165) ranked #1
12/12 at Arkansas 3-6 (254-297)
Comment: The Tide will roll into the SEC title game against FLORIDA 8-1 (378-226) ranked #6 with a 10-0 record.
COLORADO 4-0 (127-97) ranked #21 (#22 by coaches)
12/11 Utah 1-2 (68-81)
Comment: The Buffs will be favored to go 5-0 but played one out-of-conference game, (San Diego State). But USC is undefeated, too, and in the same division. The Trojans could go 5-0 with all games being in the conference.
NOTRE DAME 10-0 (377-171) ranked #2
Comment: With Wake Forest canceled, the next stop is a rematch with Clemson in the ACC title game. Can they do it again?
OHIO STATE 5-0 (233-116) ranked #4 (3rd by writers)
Comment: After the Michigan game was cancelled, the Big Ten relented and changed their rule that 6 wins were necessary to get into the Big 10 title game. Sorry, Indiana.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 4-0 (133-87) ranked #15 (16th by writers)
12/12 at UCLA 3-2 (163-124)
Comment: If USC winds up 5-0 in conference and Colorado goes 4-0, is that a tie? WASHINGTON 3-1 (121-90) awaits in the conference title game.
The one loss teams:
CLEMSON 9-1 (460-183) ranked #3 (4th by writers)
Comment: Rematch of the game of the year coming up vs. NOTRE DAME 10-0 (377-171) ranked #2 in the ACC title game.
FLORIDA 8-1 (378-226) ranked #6
12/12 Louisiana State 3-5 (230-267)
Comment: The Gators will be in the SEC title game against ALABAMA 9-0 (443-165) ranked #1.
INDIANA 6-1 (211-136) ranked #12 (8th by writers and 9th by coaches)
12/12 Purdue 2-4 (163-179)
Comment: They won’t be in the Big 10 title game and their ranking is too low to get them into the playoff. A lot teams would have to lose this weekend and the next.
University of MIAMI 8-1 (314-198) ranked #10 (9th by writers and 8th by coaches))
12/12 North Carolina 7-3 (411-286)
12/19 Georgia Tech 3-6 (219-334)
Comment: The ‘Canes problem is that they can’t get past Notre Dame or Clemson into the ACC title game. If we had the normal divisions, they’d be playing Clemson in that game.
NORTHWESTERN 5-1 (149-92) ranked #14 (15th by writers)
12/12 Illinois 2-4 (130-195)
Comment: The Wildcats will be in the Big 10 title game against OHIO STATE 5-0 (233-116) ranked #4 (3rd by writers)
TEXAS A&M 7-1 (251-177) ranked #5
12/12 Mississippi 4-4 (318-310)
12/19 at Tennessee 2-6 (160-250)
Comment: The Aggies can’t make the SEC titles game as they already lost to ‘Bama but they could finish 9-1.
WASHINGTON 3-1 (121-90) unranked
12/12 at OREGON 3-1 (154-119) ranked #23
Comment: The winner of the Washington-Oregon game will play in the Pac 10 title game.
Overall: Everyone in the Big 12 has 2 losses but they will play a full schedule so they still might get some consideration. But it’s likely between Notre Dame, Clemson (if they beat Notre Dame), Alabama, Ohio State, Florida if they can knock of the Tide or possibly the Pac 12 champ.
PESCI BOWL
BUFFALO 4-0 (203-98) (ranked 24th by writers)
12/12 Akron 1-4 (96-192)
Comment: They will face the WESTERN MICHIGAN– BALL STATE winner in the MAC title game on 12/18.
CINCINNATI 8-0 (327-120) ranked #8 (7th by writers and coaches)
12/12 at TULSA 6-1 (194-139) ranked #24
Comment: The AAC doesn’t have divisions but they do have a 1 vs. 2 conference title game scheduled for 12/19. That could also be against Tulsa or it could be against Memphis 6-2 (265-235) who hasn’t played Tulsa and who plays Tulane 5-5 (354-278) today. The Bearcats will be heavy favorites to go 10-0 in any case.
COASTAL CAROLINA 10-0 (370-168) ranked #13 (11th by writers)
12/12 at Troy 4-5 (234-241)
Comment: The Chanticleers will play LOUISIANA in the Sun Belt title game on 12/19
SAN JOSE STATE 5-0 (152-85)
12/12 NEVADA-Reno 6-1 (219-153)
Comment: The Mountain West championship game will likely be between the SJS-Nevada winner and BOISE STATE 4-1 (200-147) on 12/18.
I’ve got to add in:
BALL STATE 4-1 (172-138)
12/12 WESTERN MICHIGAN 4-1 (223-175)
Comment: The winner gets Buffalo in the MAC title game.
BOISE STATE 4-1 (200-147)
12/12 at Wyoming 2-3 (150-109)
Comment: The Broncos have had their last two games cancelled.
BRIGHAM YOUNG 9-1 (445-147) ranked #18 (14th by writers, 16th by coaches)
12/12 San Diego State 3-3 (154-97)
Comment: The Cougars are an independent, (why did they leave the Mountain West?) so there is no conference championship game.
KENT STATE 3-1 (199-152)
Comment: They got crushed by Buffalo, 41-70 and their remaining games have bene canceled so their season is done.
LIBERTY 9-1 (383-192) (ranked 21st by writers and coaches)
Comment: They have completed their schedule and are an independent with no conference title game. They lost on a missed field goal to NC State but beat us and Virginia Tech. they have too many teams to climb over but will be hiding in the bushes if there are a series of upsets.
LOUISIANA 9-1 (339-218) ranked #19 (17th by writers and coaches)
Comment: they have completed their regular season. They have a rematch with the only team to beat them, COASTAL CAROLINA, in the Sun belt title game on 12/19. CCU won the first game 30-27. The Ragin Cajuns could get a big step up by winning the rematch. They also beat Iowa State, 31-14 in Ames, Iowa.
MARSHALL 7-1 (262-91)
12/11 at Florida International 0-5 (112-162)
Comment: It shows to go you: 7-0 Marshall lost to 1-2 Rice 0-20 thanks to 5 turnovers They will play Texas-San Antonio 7-4 (315-277) in the C-USA title game on 12/18.
NEVADA-Reno 6-1 (219-153)
12/12 at SAN JOSE STATE 5-0 (152-85)
Comment: If they upset the Spartans they will face Boise State for the Mountain West title.
TULSA 6-1 (194-139) ranked #24 (18th by writers, 19th by coaches)
12/12 CINCINNATI 8-0 (327-120) ranked #8
Comment: the Golden Hurricane could project themselves into the race with an upset of the Bearcats.
WESTERN MICHIGAN 4-1 (223-175)
12/12 at BALL STATE 4-1 (172-138)
Comment: The 4-0 Broncos managed to lose to 0-4 Eastern Michigan, 42-53.
Overall: I think CINCINNATI and COASTAL CAROLINA have the inside track on the Pesci Bowl. But they need to beat TULSA and LOUISIANA to get there.
TY-DEE BOWL
Maybe there should be two Ty-Dee Bowls, one for the worst power conference teams and one for the rest of BCS. If there were:
KANSAS 0-9 (142-414)
12/12 Texas 6-3 (372-262)
Comment: The Jayhawks have no talons and are very likely to go 0-10.
VANDERBILT 0-8 (116-294)
12/12 Tennessee 2-6 (160-250)
12/19 at Georgia 6-2 (250-165)
Comment: When is Tennessee going to finally resurrect itself? Not this year. They will be vulnerable in a rivalry game.
By comparison:
SYRACUSE 1-10 (196-360)
Comment: We have more losses than any other BCS team but at least we have a win and I don’t think we are quite as bad as the Jayhawks or the Commodores. Still, let’s root not just for SU but also for Texas, Tennessee and Georgia to keep us out of Power 5 Ty-Dee Bowl. Also, mention Georgia Tech, who turned the ball over 5 times and committed 15 penalties in our game, in your prayers.
Note: the Pac 12 has three winless teams: Utah 0-2, California and Arizona 0-3. Each has two games left. Everybody in the big 10 has won a game.
A Ty-Dee Bowl for the Group of Five and independents would likely be drawn from the following winless teams:
BOWLING GREEN 0-5 (54-194)
12/5 at AKRON 0-4 (65-189)
12/12 Miami University 2-1 (86-80)
Comments: The Falcons lost to 0-4 Akron, 3-31. Eastern Illinois won’t be playing until the spring so Dino’s teams are 1-15 this year.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 0-5 (112-162)
12/11 Marshall 7-1 (262-91)
Comment: A very good bet to reach 0-5
LOUISIANA-MONROE 0-10 (163-420)
12/12 at Troy 5-5 (263-241)
Comment: None of these teams will be able to match the Warhawk’s record of non-accomplishment. If they lose to troy than we will not have the most losses in the country.
MASSACHUSETTS 0-4 (12-161)
Comment: Their season is over, perfection thus achieved.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 0-5 (116-191)
12/12 at EASTERN MICHIGAN 1-4 (158-183)
Comments: see above.
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 0-5 (83-190)
12/12 Fresno State 3-2 (158-131)
Comments: A probable 0-6.
Overall: It’s Louisiana-Monroe against somebody.
