This board has lost it

[Marsh01]

By my count, Syracuse has played only 5 quality teams this year (meaning, teams that I think are legitimate threats to make the Sweet 16): Florida, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Louisville.

Of those, I think Marquette and Notre Dame are a cut above the other three. So, three quality teams and two high quality teams.

Against the two high quality teams, the Orange have been seriously outplayed in 3 out of four halves (I sometimes wonder whether this team may have peaked at halftime of the Marquette game).

Against the other three, we have

• a 4 point win vs. Florida, at home, while their best shooter was absent from the lineup.
• an overtime win vs. Georgetown - at home
• a one point win on the road vs Louisville

These teams are all of the level of teams SU might face in the rounds of 32 and 16, and the Orange are struggling to beat them - struggling to beat them at home.


I don't care about comparisons to Kentucky or any of the other top 6 or 8 teams - if we meet them, we are already in the Regional Finals or beyond, and mission accomplished.

I am talking about our ability to get that far. The Rounds of 32 and 16 are littered with the bones of many great SU teams, and this current group does not exhibit the profile of the handful who have survived. You win in March when you can score the ball, especially in the half court. This team lacks a low post threat and consistent shooters. It's got two guys (the two seniors) who are currently able to create their own offense (Dion is shooting just .366 from the field since the Pitt game), and Scoop has the added burden of not just finding his own shot but creating offense for nearly everyone else on the floor. Shut Scoop down and the Orange offense will grind to a halt.

I hope he is up to the challenge, because otherwise there will be suicide-level disappointment for the very large contingent of "All In" posters

Great post and while I agree with alot of what you said what you are not factoring in is how we are playing defensively. That HAS been the one consistency all year. Take the ND game out of the equation because it was the first game without Fab, we have played consistent defense, getting steals, blocking shots, etc all season long. That in itself has been a huge part of this teams success.

Now there has been stretches in games where we have had defensive lapses (hell Kentucky has the same lapses) but when it comes down to making a play we have made them. We need a stop? We get it.

The lack of turnovers also is a huge part of this teams success. Averaging 9 TO a game the past 10ish games. I mean we are literally a see you nextTuesday hair away from being undefeated.

What I am impressed wit his the way that Scoop and CJ have stepped up given the slumps that Dion and Brandon are in. This team knows what it takes to win games and whether we are winning games ugly, by a point, etc we are still winning.

 

[bballbeadle]

You're right. 28-1 is a lot of pressure for fans.

That was tongue in cheek, but there is Truth there. 10 times burned, 1000 times shy. We're only human, after all! Still, we need to get a grip. Worry is praying for bad things to happen.

 

[moqui]

Not at all. With the way this team plays defense, there is no reason not to be confident. Defense can absolutely carry this team to a title. Remember, they have beaten a top 15/20 team on the road and a top 10 team at home in this stretch of "not playing well."

defense doesn't win in March. You have to be able to score the ball.

 

[AZOrange]

defense doesn't win in March. You have to be able to score the ball.

Butler?

 

[iommi]

defense doesn't win in March. You have to be able to score the ball.

Defense doesn't win in March? Cough...Butler...cough.

 

[bryanradams]

The post that initiated this discussion was great and put things in perspective. I have not enjoyed a team this much in quite some time. I have no real fear in close games. Yes, I wish we got off the ground quicker for rebounds. Yes, I wish Triche would have made those two layups against USF to blow the game wide open. Yes, I wish Scoop shot 88% from the FT line. But 28-1 for a team that plays in the BE is way above my expectations. I look forward to the tournament and advancing beyond the Sweet 16.
Of course, there will be that negative voice in my head when the tourney starts, but unless Cuse is playing in Worcester, MA or playing without our starting center or involved in a tie game with 40 secs left and a ref blows an over and back call, then I feel really good about this team.

 

[moqui]

Moqui: No way Murphy is Florida's "best shooter." Other than that, great post.

Murphy is .450 from three, edging out Boynton's .442.

Billy Donovan likes to attack the zone the same way that Pitino does - make it flex and overload one side with shooters. The corner shooter is key in that attack, and Murphy's presence would have changed the dynamic of that game, if not the outcome.

 

[NKR1978]

By my count, Syracuse has played only 5 quality teams this year (meaning, teams that I think are legitimate threats to make the Sweet 16): Florida, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Louisville.

Of those, I think Marquette and Notre Dame are a cut above the other three. So, three quality teams and two high quality teams.

Against the two high quality teams, the Orange have been seriously outplayed in 3 out of four halves (I sometimes wonder whether this team may have peaked at halftime of the Marquette game).

Against the other three, we have

• a 4 point win vs. Florida, at home, while their best shooter was absent from the lineup.
• an overtime win vs. Georgetown - at home
• a one point win on the road vs Louisville

These teams are all of the level of teams SU might face in the rounds of 32 and 16, and the Orange are struggling to beat them - struggling to beat them at home.


I don't care about comparisons to Kentucky or any of the other top 6 or 8 teams - if we meet them, we are already in the Regional Finals or beyond, and mission accomplished.

I am talking about our ability to get that far. The Rounds of 32 and 16 are littered with the bones of many great SU teams, and this current group does not exhibit the profile of the handful who have survived. You win in March when you can score the ball, especially in the half court. This team lacks a low post threat and consistent shooters. It's got two guys (the two seniors) who are currently able to create their own offense (Dion is shooting just .366 from the field since the Pitt game), and Scoop has the added burden of not just finding his own shot but creating offense for nearly everyone else on the floor. Shut Scoop down and the Orange offense will grind to a halt.

I hope he is up to the challenge, because otherwise there will be suicide-level disappointment for the very large contingent of "All In" posters

All fair points - but you're giving way too much credit to a 7-10 seed. Louisville will probably be a 4-6 seed, Georgetown 2-4 and Florida 2-4. This is far better than anything on that 8-9 line. I agree that this could be a problem in the Sweet 16, but generally all the bad teams are gone by that point anyway.

I also don't get why you - correctly - discount the Florida win to some extent while not at least partly writing off the Notre Dame loss. Against Notre Dame we had a 7 point game late and couldn't get over that hump. Fab is a huge part of our defense and I don't think Cooley would have been able to run quite so wild had Fab been there. I don't know that we would have won, but it certainly would have helped.

The team looked absolutely great against UConn in the last 7 minutes and really really good before those 7 minutes. Aside from the first four minutes of St. John's, that entire game was played at a high level. And while not even average, St. john's is definitely not one of the dregs of college basketball.

You see a team that struggles, I see a team that scratches and claws and figures out a way when nothing is working. This isn't 2010 or 2005. Richmond and Vermont aren't on the other bench.

And for those of use who are all in - I personally will worry about being suicidal when the time comes. I'd rather deal with that in a few weeks than not being able to enjoy this exciting ride we're on.

 

[moqui]

Defense doesn't win in March? Cough...Butler...cough.

don't let the point totals fool you - Butler ran a highly efficient offense.

 

[Marsh01]

defense doesn't win in March. You have to be able to score the ball.

sure it does. Butler proved that the past 2 seasons. They were a mediocre offensive team last season and locked every team they played into a bear trap. It was ugly but it got them to the title game again.

Butler averaged 62.3 PPG in the NCAA's last year. They gave up 61.6. In the 2010 run they averaged 61.3 PPG and gave up a mere 56.16. Defense is why they went to the finals. Cant debate that.

 

[NKR1978]

Butler?

Beat me to it.

Sent from my ADR6400L using Tapatalk

 

[moqui]

sure it does. Butler proved that the past 2 seasons. They were a mediocre offensive team last season and locked every team they played into a bear trap. It was ugly but it got them to the title game again.

Butler averaged 62.3 PPG in the NCAA's last year. They gave up 61.6. In the 2010 run they averaged 61.3 PPG and gave up a mere 56.16. Defense is why they went to the finals. Cant debate that.

Again, it is not point totals that matter. Butler was efficient on offense in both tournament runs; if they weren't they would have lost earlier. If you limit turnovers and create a half court game, then the team with the more efficient half court offense will win.

You win in March when you can score the ball. If defense was such a talisman, Bo Ryan and Jamie Dixon would have as more titles than K and Calhoun.

 

[HakAttack]

Last year, Kansas was 29-2 in the regular season and lost in the Elite 8. OSU was also 29-2 in the regular season and lost in the Sweet 16. OSU was #1 or #2 practically all of last year.

The year before that in 09-10' Kansas was 29-2 again, and was probably the equivalent to this year's Kentucky team, the juggernaut that was going to run away with it all. Who remembers Ali Farokhmanesh?

My point is this: there are NO sure things in March. People are running around talking about how "Kentucky's the only true national championship contender."

They're wrong.

Although success in the regular season doesn't always predicate success in the NCAA tournament, IMO there are a few things going in our favor right now.

• We've shot about as bad from the field since ND as any team could over this stretch of games, and we're still undefeated since then.
• This team doesn't have the air of "we're unbeatable, we're the best" like Kentucky may have perhaps. This humility speaks well to me.
• Our defense is tighter than a vice, and we're far and away the best team in the country at forcing turnovers and converting opponent's mistakes.
• We're a seven cylinder team (Dion, Scoop, Fab, Kris, CJ, Triche, J-South) only firing about four cylinders now. But we're STILL WINNING.
• We have a shot to finish 17-1 in BE play, with what many would consider a team that's greater than the sum of it's parts. No other SU team has finished 17-1 in conference play.

Two last points that give me great confidence.

• We lost OUR BEST DEFENDER from last year in RJ and OUR DEFENSE IS BETTER this year. That's all I need to know heading into March. Offense can dip and ebb and flow from game to game. But you can't just "turn it on" on the defensive end as a basketball team. That doesn't happen.
• We've won every style of game you can win this year, track meets, grind it out affairs, hack fests, ref jobs. You name it. This is the most unflappable Syracuse basketball team I've ever seen.

If you looked at the season this team's had so far, blind, and didn't know individual game results, and could only evaluate this team based on percentages, etc, you'd think we'd be 21-8, not 28-1. That to me says this team's a lot better than we think it is. Warts and all, we've lost one game all season.

Sky's still the limit. Sit back and relax.

 

[Marsh01]

I will even break it down further

2011 Butler's avg FG% for 6 NCAA Tourney games - 37.25%
2011 Butler's avg FG % defense for 6 NCAA Tourney games - 40.1%

2010 Butler's avg FG% for 6 NCAA Tourney games - 38.66%
2010 Butler's avg FG % defense for 6 NCAA Tourney games - 42.4%

Teams dont go to the finals averaging under 40% from the field without playing great defense.

 

[AZOrange]

Again, it is not point totals that matter. Butler was efficient on offense in both tournament runs; if they weren't they would have lost earlier. If you limit turnovers and create a half court game, then the team with the more efficient half court offense will win.

You win in March when you can score the ball. If defense was such a talisman, Bo Ryan and Jamie Dixon would have as more titles than K and Calhoun.

Ok, lets assume for a minute that I accept this premise that Butler got there with a highly efficient offense (hard to believe given the atrocity in the NC game but ok). How is this any different from Cuse right now? We shoot it from a higher clip from the floor overall, rarely turn it over, etc.

 

[Marsh01]

Again, it is not point totals that matter. Butler was efficient on offense in both tournament runs; if they weren't they would have lost earlier. If you limit turnovers and create a half court game, then the team with the more efficient half court offense will win.

You win in March when you can score the ball. If defense was such a talisman, Bo Ryan and Jamie Dixon would have as more titles than K and Calhoun.

I never said offense wasnt a part of it. Hell Butler is the 1991 UNLV Runnin Rebels compared to Wisconsin. Too much defense and ZERO offense can also hurt you. Those great Wisconsin teams were awful offensive teams.

Pitt is a mystery and I have no answer other than poor luck. Running into the wrong teams and getting ousted on fluky plays.

 

[moqui]

I will even break it down further

2011 Butler's avg FG% for 6 NCAA Tourney games - 37.25%
2011 Butler's avg FG % defense for 6 NCAA Tourney games - 40.1%

2010 Butler's avg FG% for 6 NCAA Tourney games - 38.66%
2010 Butler's avg FG % defense for 6 NCAA Tourney games - 42.4%

Teams dont go to the finals averaging under 40% from the field without playing great defense.

OK, I'll give you Butler (but for a team like that, PPP are more important than FG%)

it's still an exception

the basic rule that you have to be able to score to win is probably correct to a much higher frequency than playing stone defense. how many NCAA champs in the modern era had ty offenses and great defenses?

 

[iommi]

Come on, Moqui. Butler's offense was "offensive" last year. Just -U-G-L-Y. It was their defense that got them to the doorstep of a National Title. They were not an efficient offense... and I'm not sure how you can discount scoring when looking at an offense.

 

[iommi]

OK, I'll give you Butler (but for a team like that, PPP are more important than FG%)

it's still an exception

the basic rule that you have to be able to score to win is probably correct to a much higher frequency than playing stone defense. how many NCAA champs in the modern era had ty offenses and great defenses?

To me the Duke title teams didn't get enough credit for their defense. Of course, they had good offensive players too but their defenses were fantastic (I'm complimenting Duke, so I'm also multi-tasking by vomiting in my mouth at the same time.).

I'll also put Michigan State in there as a team led by Izzo's defense.

 

[DNABB5]

Amen. Almost unreadable at this point. People dont understand this team. They are used to great offensive Cuse teams. Unfortunately those teams "flamed out". This is a team built on the defensive end. Completely different type of team that most people on here dont seem to understand or appreciate.

This is the point of the 60 or less thread

 

[Knicks411]

Wisconsin's offense was actually #2 in the country last year. The pace masks a lot of it. Ditto for Butler, to an extent. They were 50th in offensive efficiency in both 2010 a nd 2011. So still pretty bad. (As far as contenders go). They were 5th defensively in 2010, 49th last year. (yes, last year was a fluke).

 

[Marsh01]

OK, I'll give you Butler (but for a team like that, PPP are more important than FG%)

it's still an exception

the basic rule that you have to be able to score to win is probably correct to a much higher frequency than playing stone defense. how many NCAA champs in the modern era had ty offenses and great defenses?

I agree that you need to score. No doubt about it. However you also need to defend. My whole point was that defense has been the one consistent thing with this team. The offense is not going to get any worse and I am confident we break out of our slump this weekend.

I agree with Iommi, Duke won the NC in 2010 because they ended up being a great defensive team. Zoubek was a beast inside rebounding and blocking shots and that team really stepped up the defense in the tournament.

 

[moqui]

Come on, Moqui. Butler's offense was "offensive" last year. Just -U-G-L-Y. It was their defense that got them to the doorstep of a National Title. They were not an efficient offense... and I'm not sure how you can discount scoring when looking at an offense.

they scored 1.11 points per possession last year; the national average was 1.01. Their ranking was 50th (their defensive ranking, FWIW, was 49th)

they turned the ball over on 16.9% of possession; the national average was 20.1%. That was 22nd in the nation.

formula: don't turn the ball over and play efficiently.

I will grant, however, that the 2010 team was more dependent on defense (still top 50 in offensive efficiency, but 2nd in defense)

 

[Marsh01]

Wisconsin's offense was actually #2 in the country last year. The pace masks a lot of it. Ditto for Butler, to an extent. They were 50th in offensive efficiency in both 2010 a nd 2011. So still pretty bad. (As far as contenders go). They were 5th defensively in 2010, 49th last year. (yes, last year was a fluke).

There is offensive efficiency and then there is can you score enough points when you have to. Efficiency is great but being able to score 80 when your defense goes bad is why Wisconsin never wins national championships.

 

[arrow2arinzesknee]

. The offense is not going to get any worse

This!

the offense cannot get much colder than they have been and we are still 28-1 last time I checked.

Only going to get better as we cant shoot much worse! Loved seeing Joseph decide he was going to back down defenders, much better than out of control head down stuff.