First off, I'm pretty bullish on SU this year. I'm thinking top 10, final 4 etc.
We had a chance to have (at least in my opinion) the clear cut best team in the country if Malachi did not go pro, and if Tyler Cavanaugh transferred here (which I really thought was going to happen, would love to hear what went on behind the scenes there).
Unfortunately Malachi made the correct decision for him. Though he was inconsistent as a freshman (which is pretty typical) he would not have been inconsistent as a sophomore. He probably would have been the best player in the country. I, personally, don't think Syracuse got to the final 4 by fluke. I think they got there because Malachi and Lydon grew into their exceptional talent, especially Malachi who I think is going to be a good pro.
Boeheim and staff really did a great job of rolling with the punches by adding Jon Gillon and Andrew White to give themselves a very complete and well rounded roster. When Boeheim has the pieces he needs to make his system work Syracuse is always elite . . . this year Boeheim has the pieces to make his system work.
Lets talk about one of those pieces, Andrew White. He is a fantastic replacement for Malachi, but lets cool it a bit on him being better that Malachi would have been. I think pretty much everybody knows the book on Andrew White by now, great shooter, not much of a ball handler (for a guard), not many assists, lots of rebounds, poor lateral quickness, good straight line quickness, good hops.
I watched three of Andrew White's games pretty carefully (against Michigan St., Miami, and Samford) and here is what I saw.
First of all, Nebraska played a line up of 5 guards. Their center was a Draymond Green type who actually played point on offense a lot of the time. The other three starters were midgets by SU standards. This left 6'7 Andrew White to play what amounted to the stretch 4 role. He was never asked to create offense. His job was to hang out behind the three point line, find an opening and knock down shots - and he was great at it.
Here is what we don't know . . . is Andrew White capable of handling the ball and initiating offense? Its possible that he may be able to do more of this than he showed but Nebraska simply didn't need him to because they were playing 5 guards and he was the best shooter/tallest of the 5.
Against Michigan St. White was asked to guard 6'10 first round draft pick Deyonta Davis, and Nebraska made the choice not to double team. Pretty understandably, White looked uncomfortable guarding Davis under the basket, and was fouled out of the game in about 19 minutes.
Against Miami White guarded 6-6 wing Davon Reed and pretty much shut him down, while scoring an efficient 13 points himself. Nebraska lost in overtime (which is a great result against a top 10 team).
Against Samford, White guarded one of their forwards who was a short guard by ACC standards. Again White shut him down. Against both Miami and Samford White was primarily covering the perimeter and looked really comfortable doing it, even against a smaller quicker guard. Against Michigan St. White was asked to protect the paint and looked very uncomfortable.
I don't think White will be a great defensive player for us no matter where he plays, but I think he will be better at the top of the zone than the wing of the zone. Our wings have to cover a lot of space and his noticeable lack of lateral quickness will make it hard for him to do that. And our wings will at times be matched up with bigs down low, and that is not White's strength.
On the other hand White looks very comfortable guarding the perimeter, and his lack of quickness will be less of a liability because (1) he will be taller and longer than the guys he's guarding (rather than shorter as a forward) which will help make up for a lack of quickness, and (2) because Syracuse is probably going to encourage guards to penetrate more this year because unlike last year we will have a 7'2 shot blocker waiting to make their life hell.
This does not mean I think White is going to play guard. It just means I think he'd be a better defensive guard than forward. How much White actually plays guard will have more to do with Battle/Gillon/Howard than White.
White is less of a ball handler, passer, penetrater than Malachi was, which is usually a bad thing, but could be a good thing if Battle turns out to be SO good that he needs the ball in his hands all the time. In that case White will make a better complimentary player than Richardson would have. Although something interesting I noticed from watching White, he never took a deep 3's. His toes were always right up to the line.
Batttle is the single most important player on our team. If he's our leading scorer in the games that matter, we are probably a national championship contender. If Battle can play point and Boeheim wants to keep the ball in his hands, then I can see him building version 2 of 2012 with Battle filling in for Dion Waiters and Chukwu filling in for Melo. A team of Battle and White at the guards, Roberson and Lydon at the forwards and Chukwu at center would be very hard to score against, and it would have enough rebounding to release Battle early in transition the way we did with Waiters. I think this team would be better in the half court than that team was, however, and better rebounding which is saying something because that team only lost 1 game.
Of course this puts a lot of pressure on a freshman to run the show, and there is no way to know yet if he is ready for all that. Maybe we will be better with a "true" point guard, meaning Gillon or Howard. I was one of the people pointing out last year that Howard was terrible both offensively and defensive (a fact I think most SU fans missed for some reason) however you could see Howard's progression at the end of the year, he literally got better every post season game we played. I could see him being a very different player this year than he was last year.
If I had to guess (and at this point its really just a guess) I think you will see Boeheim tinker with line ups more this year than most years to exploit other teams weaknesses. That is my way of saying forget about the starting line up, its going to be almost meaningless as a reflection of minutes played.
When we play a team like Louisville who presses you'll probably see lots of Gillon at point and White at small forward. But when we play a team that plays a zone or a man to man that sags back, you might see the better defensive combo of White and Battle as the guards.
Some teams will be vulnerable to the press and in those situations you will almost definite Gillon leading the press and Chukwu protecting the basket.
Other teams wont score much in the paint against us and perhaps Boeheim chooses to play Lydon at center and go with a fantastic offensive team of Gillon Battle White Roberson and Lydon (that's 4 guys who can shoot and Roberson under the basket to hoover up the few misses they have).
My guess is minutes and roles will very greatly from game to game because Boeheim can tweak this team more than most of the teams he's had.
So what to look for in preseason and in practice reports?
1) How does Battle look and can he play the point?
2) Who is the better point guard, Gillon or Howard?
3) Are Moyer and Thompson good enough to take minutes away from the big guys when it matters? I seriously doubt it.
4) Is Coleman good enough to earn major playing time? I have my doubts on this one, I could see Boeheim going offense/defense with Chukwu and Lydon. Lydon won't be the liability in the middle he was last year because Boeheim can choose to play him only when it will benefit us (like when a team's major low post scoring threat is sitting the bench).
5) Is White learning two positions on defense or does Boeheim want him to master one? White and Lydon are the only two guys I can see playing different roles in the zone (Lydon wing and center, White guard and wing).
6) Can Chukwu be a defensive game changer? We are probably only a championship team if he is.
Should be an exciting season with lots to argue about!
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