USC and UCLA to the Big Ten

[CuyahogaCuse]

Maybe this has been discussed above. I’ll go back and read the last ten pages posted since last night later. But put me in the camp of “write the $390m check.” Now.

Why you say? We’re Syracuse. We can’t afford that price. I say we can’t not afford to write it.

Found this online:

The ROI on the difference in TV revenues is paid back by 2032/33, based on a back of the envelope difference of about 40m a year. In reality, if the ACC fails to exist, because other conference members jump ship first, the gap in future TV revenues is even greater.

What’s it get us? Stability. In hoops. In lax. And yes, in football. We’ll play Penn State. And Rutgers. And Maryland. All old time foes. Add in Sparty, some of the others that have become familiar.

Will it be the same? Nope. But you want to survive? Let’s start the gofundme. Now.

 

[TheCusian]

ESPN will set about undermining the ACC, which it looks like they already have, to drive down the value of the GOR and facilitate teams jumping off.

Why would they want that?

 

[CousCuse]

What if ESPN decides that ND to the ACC is a chance to make the business side of the ACC work better for its institutions? Not just “here’s NDs value in CFB distributed equally” but more of a “we see your instability makes an ESPN run ACC weak and poachable, we’re adding ND and putting you on par with the SEC”

Doesn’t ESPN want a strong SEC and a strong ACC? Or do they want to see the ACC implode (along with its network) and gobbled up by a Fox run competitor or something it already owns?

They want to take the high value teams out of the ACC and put them in the SEC for a smaller overall payout.

 

[Noexcuse]

I don't see the need for a combo league. If the leftovers assets have low value to the B1G and SEC now, how can they have value in a combo league? I rather see a 10 team ACC made up of East Coast teams then be in a 20 team national league playing mediocre programs.

That’s kind of how I feel. Maybe an independent east coast conference and an independent west coast conference with a crossover scheduling agreement.

 

[TheCusian]

They want to take the high value teams out of the ACC and put them in the SEC for a smaller overall payout.

Lol

The game is content and killing the value of their content is dumb

 

[longtimefan]

Maybe this has been discussed above. I’ll go back and read the last ten pages posted since last night later. But put me in the camp of “write the $390m check.” Now.

Why you say? We’re Syracuse. We can’t afford that price. I say we can’t not afford to write it.

Found this online:
View attachment 218128

The ROI on the difference in TV revenues is paid back by 2032/33, based on a back of the envelope difference of about 40m a year. In reality, if the ACC fails to exist, because other conference members jump ship first, the gap in future TV revenues is even greater.

What’s it get us? Stability. In hoops. In lax. And yes, in football. We’ll play Penn State. And Rutgers. And Maryland. All old time foes. Add in Sparty, some of the others that have become familiar.

Will it be the same? Nope. But you want to survive? Let’s start the gofundme. Now.

The break-even point is 2032 or 2033, so going forward after that is all gravy? That is based upon the premise that everything will settle down at that point and that there will be total stability going forward. After recent events, I wouldn't go all-in on that.

 

[CousCuse]

Lol

The game is content and killing the value of their content is dumb

They don't want to pay premium prices for mediocre content that has few fans.

 

[Noexcuse]

there is no chance uconn gets a call as they couldnt even get into big 12 or acc and there going to be invited to join the bigten? Cmon

If New England has value it’s BC or UConn. ND would probably want BC if they are given choosing rights. If UConn is left at the altar again they will certainly get an invite to the new ACC this time. Laugh away.

 

[CousCuse]

If New England has value it’s BC or UConn. ND would probably want BC if they are given choosing rights. If UConn is left at the altar again they will certainly get an invite to the new ACC this time. Laugh away.

BC has a very low value as a brand.

 

[baggerbob]

The GoR runs until 2036. Schools could leave sooner if the conference votes to dissolve itself.

People think ESPN is the friend of the ACC they aren't. They could easily have made the ACC strong. Instead of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, they could have moved them to the ACC.
Notre Dame has wanted to play Texas regularly. Then they could have offered Notre Dame, UCLA, USC, and Stanford as a package.

 

[Chris02M]

I don't see the need for a combo league. If the leftovers assets have low value to the B1G and SEC now, how can they have value in a combo league? I rather see a 10 team ACC made up of East Coast teams then be in a 20 team national league playing mediocre programs.

if espn says add these teams are there will be additional casualties you would do it

 

[SU94]

A few random thoughts as I take in this USC-UCLA development and how it might apply to SU:

• If Notre Dame seeks to maximize is "autonomy," which is essentially what it has valued in the last 100 years, that is best accomplished in the ACC. In the Big 10(20), they'd be the Johnny Come Lately among of a leadership team along with (you know the names) Michigan, Ohio State, USC and to a lesser degree PSU, Nebraska and UCLA. Outside of their NBC contract, the Domers would be tacitly aligning with Fox by joining the B10. I am not sure the ideologies of the Catholics (Congregation of Holy Cross) are well aligned with those of Rupert Murdoch. (I suppose you could make some of the same arguments with ABC/ESPN/Disney, but I would argue lesser)
• In the ACC, they'd be the driver. They'd control much, much more of their own destiny, which could include which West Coast schools to approach about a PAC/ACC hyperblend conference. I doubt this will happen, but that does not mean it does not have vast potential. Plus, in a vacuum, Notre Dame should want to be aligning with like-minded academically-inclined universities, half of which are private schools, as they are.
• That said, if/when the Irish chase the monies and the now established continental sprawl of the B10, I find it hard to indict them for their inconsistency. Seriously, they'd be out for themselves, just like everyone else is, most especially since the advent of covid.
• I do believe that it is important to remember that ESPN has vested interest in the ACC surviving in some form, even if it is as part of a bigger, badder SEC. As Alsacs said (and I hope he follows Brett Farve's lead and unretires again), they are not going to give Jim Phillips and the ACC a life raft for the heck of it.
• The power players at the SEC and B10 had best tread lightly. If enough state schools are left out, there is likely to be a federal inquiry that could likely prompt unintended consequences. These are not private companies being bartered and traded like franchises, many of these are state universities that, when combined, have invested billions of dollars through the years into their athletic infrastructures. And they represent millions of potential voters at the local, state and national levels. Will national lawmakers in DC sit by idly as various school's athletic futures are severely hindered so a smaller grouping of ego-infested Commissioners/ADs/Presidents/boosters can play a high-stakes game of Risk? I am not sure this goes unregulated or unchecked.
• I do not see SU in a position of great strength in this game of musical chairs. We do have some things working in our favor, and I will list them quickly: a strong well-recognized brand, an updated, nationally-recognized, on-campus football/basketball stadium (which included significant state funding), SU is a top-50-60 national university with a penchant for having a moral backbone, a ridiculously well-connected Athletics Director, an invested Chancellor (former Chair of the ACC's board, and current member of its Executive Committee), a well-rounded athletics department, a strong athletic history in the I&D space (pre Ben and post Ben), an underrated and boisterous fan base, a top 10 historically relevant basketball program that drives ratings in the 99th percentile (and has natural access to MSG). Lacrosse doesn't hurt, but it does not help either. Otto! (I kid!). ...
• One quiock point on college basketball: yes, football drives the (let me check ...) bus. Sorry for the cliche, but football is likely 3.5 to 4x as important as hoops in the grand scheme of realignment. But what good, profitable, stable business enterprise poo-poos or ignores ~20% of its product? The answer is none. Basketball should matter in this grand equation more than most here acknowledge. It should absolutely be part of most, if not all, conversations about what the future of college sports looks like.
• There are drawbacks to Syracuse University too, including being a private university with a middle-range enrollment and our campus not residing in the shadow of the Big Apple. And the lack of research-based, post-grad schools is certainly a hinderance, but in my estimation, not as much as it was 10-15 years ago (I think the B10's CIC/AAU angle is overplayed -- unless it is convenient -- and will be deemphasized to a degree). Also, there is a population decline that is well underway in CNY.
• I do find it extremely hard to believe that the state of New York -- the fourth most populous state in the USA(!) -- will not be directly and tangibly represented. Nor would New Friggin' York City, the world's hub of finance. And you can spare me the indignity that Penn State commandeers NYC's ratings and all of that bu!!. Penn State is in the geometric center (aka a cow pasture) of PENNSYLVANIA. You have to go into another state to get to NYC from there. Capiche?

 

[CousCuse]

If New England has value it’s BC or UConn. ND would probably want BC if they are given choosing rights. If UConn is left at the altar again they will certainly get an invite to the new ACC this time. Laugh away.

It would make sense for the B1G to add the 2 public flagship schools that play FBS football in New England to lock that market up.

 

[007]

Thank you for enlightening us unwashed ignorami! And thank you so much for explaining to us all how to "do" internet message boarding. I bow to your all-knowing brilliance and am ashamed to have voiced my stupid opinion.

Hey, it's not your fault you didn't know.

There are many "unwashed ignorami" takes in this thread (kudos for the phrase!). FWIW, the OP that you are taking to task above is one of the few here with an informed opinion based on what he does for a living.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

if espn says add these teams are there will be additional casualties you would do it

Not realistic. A National conference will still be very weak. Teams will leave. Why would ESPN even want a National 3rd tier conference? The assets aren't worth much. People won't care to see Kansas State vs Wake any more than they care about seeing Wake play SU. ESPN isn't paying a premium for that. If there isn't a significant increase in money (there won't be), why cause a travel nightmare?

 

[kcsu]

Why would they want that?

Good post. Concentration is good to a point for fox and espn. TO A POINT.

If ESPN or Fox put all of their eggs in one basket what happens when Amazon outbids them someday.

 

[Stern]

I honestly don’t think the ACC is necessarily dead. There’s a chance some schools decide to hop off this insane theme park ride of ever escalating expenditures and revenue chasing. The ACC could live on with schools who prefer that model.

True by Dead I don't mean "go away and not exist". By dead I mean it will be what the Big East is now. Or the MAC is now. Or Conference USA. It will be that type of conference.

 

[Chris02M]

Not realistic. A National conference will still be very weak. Teams will leave. Why would ESPN even want a National 3rd tier conference? The assets aren't worth much. People won't care to see Kansas State vs Wake any more than they care about seeing Wake play SU. ESPN isn't paying a premium for that. If there isn't a significant increase in money (there won't be), why cause a travel nightmare?

it wouldn't be a travel nightmare to travel to midwest or texas

 

[Chris02M]

True by Dead I don't mean "go away and not exist". By dead I mean it will be what the Big East is now. Or the MAC is now. Or Conference USA. It will be that type of conference.

it will be above that but i get what your saying . It will be like the JV of college football or triple a baseball

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

it will be above that but i get what your saying . It will be like the JV of college football or triple a baseball

Why will the Big Ten be better just because they have some perennial underachievers in LA?

Ohio State is the only program that comes close to UGA or Bama in FB and they aren't that close.

I don't think people realize how bad the ACC was last year relative to other conferences the AAC was better it can't get worse that was rock bottom and I am not sure Clemson is going to claw their way back into that small group of Natty contenders. ACC is in a good position in 3rd place unless the conference gets totally gutted. Basketball had just as terrible a season as FB until it pulled off a ton of NCAA Tournament upsets also in case anyone forgot.

 

[rrlbees]

Why will the Big Ten be better just because they have some perennial underachievers in LA?

Ohio State is the only program that comes close to UGA or Bama in FB and they aren't that close.

I don't think people realize how bad the ACC was last year relative to other conferences the AAC was better it can't get worse that was rock bottom and I am not sure Clemson is going to claw their way back into that small group of Natty contenders. ACC is in a good position in 3rd place unless the conference gets totally gutted. Basketball had just as terrible a season as FB until it pulled off a ton of NCAA Tournament upsets also in case anyone forgot.

A one year blip. The ACC will be very very good in fball this year.

 

[Cheriehoop]

You guys are funny. Texas, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, Oregon...even Syracuse, BC, Pitt...all changed conferences for more money and better status, but they all get a pass?

Its all cool and good, just smart business, but if ND does it the Irish are singled out as "whoring"?

Ironic.

We didn’t tell the conference that one of our teams was too good for the conference. You do understand that right?

Agree. ND also heralded their football “independence” like it was a moral prerogative unique to their existence. As TerryD now admits it was always dependent on money, a business decision, not a commitment to independence preventing them from fully joining a conference. As people have said for decades, it was a selfish exploitation of the conferences who gave their other sports a safe landing place. At least the ACC got a few football games out of it. Joining the Big10 will prove that the contracts signed were just empty promises to ever join the ACC or Big East conferences. If and when this goes through, all it does is prove the critics were correct all along.

 

[Willy75]

This is pretty much what I have been saying. I agree with some but not all of it. In some instances it does make sense to add 2 teams. In others it doesn’t. Kansas and Duke are very similar. Non existent football. But Kansas has a much larger enrollment and national following. No one cares about duke except for basketball. It’s small private school that doesn’t pull numbers in North Carolina will kill them with expansion. Only thing that will help them is if a team such as UNC says we won’t go unless you add Duke. Only chance Duke has. Otherwise I see duke becoming Gonzaga like, dropping there football program.

Public school pulls along private school (many of whose alums are from out of state)? More likely UNC would try to drag along NCSU

 

[Madbiker]

Eventually, probably soon, they are going to a 12 team playoff. Then ND will get in most years. They won't need to join a conference to get in the playoff. IMO.

 

[Cuse181]

They don't want to pay premium prices for mediocre content that has few fans.

Most college football is mediocre, that’s why they’re college and not pro players. The networks pay because there are eye balls and fans watching these games. If they didn’t, there wouldn’t be an arms race to get the MOST money, it’d be trying to get ANY money.

D1 college sports has value at all levels of football, that’s why the schools have programs. You think ESPN wrote the check to the ACC because they wanted to make the ACC feel good? No, it’s because the collective alumni bases look past the amateur level Football on the field to support something they feel they have a personal connection to. The college football product for 80% of schools is about the alumni support not ransoms fans, and time and time again it proves to be a profitable venture to televise those games.