USC and UCLA to the Big Ten

[Cusefan69]

Hey by the way and I am completely brain locking the guys handle but I think his name was Neil and he used to have some really good insights and thoughts around conference alignment. Really good guy seemingly but I don't think I have seen him post in a long while.

Edit: Maybe was Omniorange? He had a friendly style, good insight.

 

[Toga]

No way they agree to that - BIG has all the power

Well the states of Washington and Oregon have some power (see Virginia).

 

[Orangefizz]

Well the states of Washington and Oregon have some power (see Virginia).

So you think either state governor would hold back their flagship university from earning $100 million per year and force them to stay in a PAC conference that will likely add Big 12 schools from TX/OK?

Personally I don’t see it. under no scenario do I see the Big 10 adding Oregon State and Washington state.

 

[Toga]

So you think either state governor would hold back their flagship university from earning $100 million per year and force them to stay in a PAC conference that will likely add Big 12 schools from TX/OK?

Personally I don’t see it. under no scenario do I see the Big 10 adding Oregon State and Washington state.

I agree but it's possible.

 

[Cusefan69]

So you think either state governor would hold back their flagship university from earning $100 million per year and force them to stay in a PAC conference that will likely add Big 12 schools from TX/OK?

Personally I don’t see it. under no scenario do I see the Big 10 adding Oregon State and Washington state.

Never underestimate the power of political bs to turn something upside down. At some point here, it will happen.

 

[Chris02M]

Never underestimate the power of political bs to turn something upside down. At some point here, it will happen.

if politics get in the way the big ten will move to other options and leave all oregon and washington to die with pac 12

 

[gmoney44]

So I don't see the ADs quiting. I don't see the head of the ACC quiting. I get it, some of you are already accepting an outcome. I understand why. I think pretty much all of us agree that things are looking unfavorable. I just don't think you quit working solutions. I don't think ACC leaders are stopping nor are the ADs.

Yup. Get everyone together with the whiteboard and start spit balling. Think outside the box and hold nothing back. If at the end of the day nothing works and we end up in a second tier conference, so be it. College sports besides SU games are dead to me anyway now. What do I care at this point.

 

[Chris02M]

Yup. Get everyone together with the whiteboard and start spit balling. Think outside the box and hold nothing back. If at the end of the day nothing works and we end up in a second tier conference, so be it. College sports besides SU games are dead to me anyway now. What do I care at this point.

That has to be the plan right now while awaiting ND

 

[Orangefizz]

if politics get in the way the big ten will move to other options and leave all oregon and washington to die with pac 12

Yes absolutely true. BIG has all the power in a 2 team super conference. The BIG could pivot to Colorado and Arizona in a heartbeat. In my opinion no way Phil Knight allows this to happen and let Oregon get marginalized into a Big12/MWC/PAC hybrid conference.

Edit. I could also see the SEC adding Utah and Colorado, along with California and Arizona St, adding the Phoenix, Denver, SLC and SF markets

 

[dasher]

You want ND to turn down playing in a coast to coast conference with Southern Cal as a member, with a payout of $120 million a year per school...for what, exactly?

No other school in America would turn that down to be stuck in a Tier Two conference with half the payout.

None. You want ND to give up independence. You just want them to join your league.

You want ND to do that, why? So Syracuse and the ACC are "saved" from themselves and make a little more lucre?

That seems to be "whoring", too.

It's too bad that you don't have a board of your own to justify your existence. It was ND that broke from every other school and made a private deal with NBC. No one else did that. You have been here for a long time claiming the importance of your independence. Now, you come here to justify moving to the BIg10. What you are..is just like everyone else. But none of us have ever claimed to be any different. That was you.

 

[HastingsCuse]

So you think either state governor would hold back their flagship university from earning $100 million per year and force them to stay in a PAC conference that will likely add Big 12 schools from TX/OK?

Personally I don’t see it. under no scenario do I see the Big 10 adding Oregon State and Washington state.

What matters to Governors and legistators (and all politicians) is not the financial benefit to one school, its voters. They will be worried about losing the votes of Cougars/Beaver fans if they are left without a major conference. They won't risk alienating a large percentage of voters, just because because it benefits the "flagship school." It may make sense for college football but it doesn't mean that Cougar/Beaver fans (voters) will support it, without alot of push back that will impact whether the state approves it.

 

[CousCuse]

You want ND to turn down playing in a coast to coast conference with Southern Cal as a member, with a payout of $120 million a year per school...for what, exactly?

No other school in America would turn that down to be stuck in a Tier Two conference with half the payout.

None. You want ND to give up independence. You just want them to join your league.

You want ND to do that, why? So Syracuse and the ACC are "saved" from themselves and make a little more lucre?

That seems to be "whoring", too.

I just want Notre Dame to go away, please.

 

[OrangeDW]

I just want Notre Dame to go away, please.

UMass will be the better program within 10 years, if they join the ACC.

 

[Day2]

Something keeps getting lost here. The B1G and SEC are adding markets and brands, not schools. If they already have a market, they’re not going to add another school from that market, unless the school has an elite brand. That’s why Texas is going to the SEC and USC/UCLA are both going B1G. But it’s also why Florida State and Miami aren’t going to the SEC and why only one of them (probably FSU) is going B1G. And it’s why a lot of people are overvaluing Kansas and Duke.

Here’s what’s left of the markets:

NC - Neither conference represented. UNC could go to one, with NC State to the other. No room for Duke or Wake.

SC - SEC has the Cocks, but might want Clemson because of their brand. Otherwise B1G.

Georgia - It’s Tech (and TNT Studios) to the B1G or nothing.

Florida - SEC won’t piss off UF. B1G will take one between FSU and Miami. Miami could be one of the last teams in because of their brand. I don’t think it’s worth mentioning UCF.

Virginia - Like in NC, both UVA and VPI should find a new home.

Oregon - Not much of a market, so this is only about the brand and only one conference will capitalize. The other conference won’t want OSU.

Washington - Seattle is the appeal here. Similar to the above, WSU won’t draw interest.

Arizona - If Arizona goes B1G, I could see the SEC taking ASU for the Phoenix market, but not the other way around. Maybe the SEC would take both.

California - I can’t see either Bay Area school in the SEC. I could see both in the B1G, though.

Colorado - This is an underrated market both conferences will have interest in.

Utah - I think BYU is the target here, not Utah. And I think this is more about brand than market.

Texas - The SEC is done here and I don’t think the B1G is that desperate to add a Texas school. Makes more sense for them to go after A&M than to settle for Baylor/TT/TCU/Houston.

Oklahoma/Iowa - I don’t see either conference needing OSU or ISU.

Kansas - Folks, Kansas brings nothing to the table. Nothing. The B1G doesn’t need the KC market (and already has STL with Illinois) and the SEC preferred Mizzou. KU and KSU are screwed.

West Virginia - WVU is screwed.

Kentucky - Louisville is probably screwed.

Ohio - Cincy is definitely screwed.

Indiana - Obviously ND is about the brand.

Pennsylvania - Coin flip on whether or not the SEC would be interested in Pitt. B1G won’t be.

Massachusetts - Coin flip on either conference having interest in BC.

New York - I guess Rutgers is good enough for the B1G. We have two prayers: NE expansion by the SEC or a last minute add like Miami.

By my math, we’re looking at no more than 16 additional schools joining the super conferences. A lot of good programs will be left hanging, but that’s not a bad thing, because the next tier should still be competitive.

 

[CousCuse]

UMass will be the better program within 10 years, if they join the ACC.

I know its a long time ago so nobody probably remembers, but there was a thing called the pandemic and teams would only play conference game. Well, the ACC said to Notre Dame you can join the conference for 1 season to save your program from being shut down, and lo and behold they play in the ACC and make the playoffs. What a bunch of suckers there are at ACC headquarters.

 

[CU44SE]

Something keeps getting lost here. The B1G and SEC are adding markets and brands, not schools. If they already have a market, they’re not going to add another school from that market, unless the school has an elite brand. That’s why Texas is going to the SEC and USC/UCLA are both going B1G. But it’s also why Florida State and Miami aren’t going to the SEC and why only one of them (probably FSU) is going B1G. And it’s why a lot of people are overvaluing Kansas and Duke.

Here’s what’s left of the markets:

NC - Neither conference represented. UNC could go to one, with NC State to the other. No room for Duke or Wake.

SC - SEC has the Cocks, but might want Clemson because of their brand. Otherwise B1G.

Georgia - It’s Tech (and TNT Studios) to the B1G or nothing.

Florida - SEC won’t piss off UF. B1G will take one between FSU and Miami. Miami could be one of the last teams in because of their brand. I don’t think it’s worth mentioning UCF.

Virginia - Like in NC, both UVA and VPI should find a new home.

Oregon - Not much of a market, so this is only about the brand and only one conference will capitalize. The other conference won’t want OSU.

Washington - Seattle is the appeal here. Similar to the above, WSU won’t draw interest.

Arizona - If Arizona goes B1G, I could see the SEC taking ASU for the Phoenix market, but not the other way around. Maybe the SEC would take both.

California - I can’t see either Bay Area school in the SEC. I could see both in the B1G, though.

Colorado - This is an underrated market both conferences will have interest in.

Utah - I think BYU is the target here, not Utah. And I think this is more about brand than market.

Texas - The SEC is done here and I don’t think the B1G is that desperate to add a Texas school. Makes more sense for them to go after A&M than to settle for Baylor/TT/TCU/Houston.

Oklahoma/Iowa - I don’t see either conference needing OSU or ISU.

Kansas - Folks, Kansas brings nothing to the table. Nothing. The B1G doesn’t need the KC market (and already has STL with Illinois) and the SEC preferred Mizzou. KU and KSU are screwed.

West Virginia - WVU is screwed.

Kentucky - Louisville is probably screwed.

Ohio - Cincy is definitely screwed.

Indiana - Obviously ND is about the brand.

Pennsylvania - Coin flip on whether or not the SEC would be interested in Pitt. B1G won’t be.

Massachusetts - Coin flip on either conference having interest in BC.

New York - I guess Rutgers is good enough for the B1G. We have two prayers: NE expansion by the SEC or a last minute add like Miami.

By my math, we’re looking at no more than 16 additional schools joining the super conferences. A lot of good programs will be left hanging, but that’s not a bad thing, because the next tier should still be competitive.

This is pretty much what I have been saying. I agree with some but not all of it. In some instances it does make sense to add 2 teams. In others it doesn’t. Kansas and Duke are very similar. Non existent football. But Kansas has a much larger enrollment and national following. No one cares about duke except for basketball. It’s small private school that doesn’t pull numbers in North Carolina will kill them with expansion. Only thing that will help them is if a team such as UNC says we won’t go unless you add Duke. Only chance Duke has. Otherwise I see duke becoming Gonzaga like, dropping there football program.

 

[Orangefizz]

This is pretty much what I have been saying. I agree with some but not all of it. In some instances it does make sense to add 2 teams. In others it doesn’t. Kansas and Duke are very similar. Non existent football. But Kansas has a much larger enrollment and national following. No one cares about duke except for basketball. It’s small private school that doesn’t pull numbers in North Carolina will kill them with expansion. Only thing that will help them is if a team such as UNC says we won’t go unless you add Duke. Only chance Duke has. Otherwise I see duke becoming Gonzaga like, dropping there football program.

Duke to the Ivy

 

[DoctorBombay]

Something keeps getting lost here. The B1G and SEC are adding markets and brands, not schools. If they already have a market, they’re not going to add another school from that market, unless the school has an elite brand. That’s why Texas is going to the SEC and USC/UCLA are both going B1G. But it’s also why Florida State and Miami aren’t going to the SEC and why only one of them (probably FSU) is going B1G. And it’s why a lot of people are overvaluing Kansas and Duke.

Here’s what’s left of the markets:

NC - Neither conference represented. UNC could go to one, with NC State to the other. No room for Duke or Wake.

SC - SEC has the Cocks, but might want Clemson because of their brand. Otherwise B1G.

Georgia - It’s Tech (and TNT Studios) to the B1G or nothing.

Florida - SEC won’t piss off UF. B1G will take one between FSU and Miami. Miami could be one of the last teams in because of their brand. I don’t think it’s worth mentioning UCF.

Virginia - Like in NC, both UVA and VPI should find a new home.

Oregon - Not much of a market, so this is only about the brand and only one conference will capitalize. The other conference won’t want OSU.

Washington - Seattle is the appeal here. Similar to the above, WSU won’t draw interest.

Arizona - If Arizona goes B1G, I could see the SEC taking ASU for the Phoenix market, but not the other way around. Maybe the SEC would take both.

California - I can’t see either Bay Area school in the SEC. I could see both in the B1G, though.

Colorado - This is an underrated market both conferences will have interest in.

Utah - I think BYU is the target here, not Utah. And I think this is more about brand than market.

Texas - The SEC is done here and I don’t think the B1G is that desperate to add a Texas school. Makes more sense for them to go after A&M than to settle for Baylor/TT/TCU/Houston.

Oklahoma/Iowa - I don’t see either conference needing OSU or ISU.

Kansas - Folks, Kansas brings nothing to the table. Nothing. The B1G doesn’t need the KC market (and already has STL with Illinois) and the SEC preferred Mizzou. KU and KSU are screwed.

West Virginia - WVU is screwed.

Kentucky - Louisville is probably screwed.

Ohio - Cincy is definitely screwed.

Indiana - Obviously ND is about the brand.

Pennsylvania - Coin flip on whether or not the SEC would be interested in Pitt. B1G won’t be.

Massachusetts - Coin flip on either conference having interest in BC.

New York - I guess Rutgers is good enough for the B1G. We have two prayers: NE expansion by the SEC or a last minute add like Miami.

By my math, we’re looking at no more than 16 additional schools joining the super conferences. A lot of good programs will be left hanging, but that’s not a bad thing, because the next tier should still be competitive.

Disagree about NY. I think the only hope we have is that we're the only high-major program in the #1 market- NY. Rutgers does not move the needle that much for the B1G to totally dismiss us. You lock up SU, and you have the NE under your total control. Look at that map of the B1G, the only contingent state missing is...New York. Hopefully that'll be enough to get us in.

 

[RandomGuy]

Disagree about NY. I think the only hope we have is that we're the only high-major program in the #1 market- NY. Rutgers does not move the needle that much for the B1G to totally dismiss us. You lock up SU, and you have the NE under your total control. Look at that map of the B1G, the only contingent state missing is...New York. Hopefully that'll be enough to get us in.

While a map could carry some relevence, i think this could carry more.

College Football Value Rankings

graphics.wsj.com

 

[Orangefizz]

While a map could carry some relevence, i think this could carry more.

College Football Value Rankings

graphics.wsj.com

A lot more!!! Its the $$$ that expansion is all about

 

[DoctorBombay]

While a map could carry some relevence, i think this could carry more.

College Football Value Rankings

graphics.wsj.com

TCU, Kansas State, and Texas Tech are all ranked above us on this list. i seriously doubt that those programs are more "valuable" than Syracuse. The map is a metaphor- I realize contingency means nothing right now.
What does matter is, and i'm banking on this fact, is that Syracuse University is the only high-major, nationally relevant program, in the #1 media market in America. If the BiG thinks that RU/UMD is enough, then we're screwed. If not, we have a shot.

 

[SouthernCuse]

College football popularity has peaked: money ain't tradition
Or so this article argues
slow motion suicide of CF

 

[Scooch]

Agree. There is no saving the ACC at this point. With the USC/UCLA move the conference died on that day. Some may not want to acknowledge it or accept it, but now its just a matter of time.

I honestly don’t think the ACC is necessarily dead. There’s a chance some schools decide to hop off this insane theme park ride of ever escalating expenditures and revenue chasing. The ACC could live on with schools who prefer that model.

 

[Scooch]

Thank you for enlightening us unwashed ignorami! And thank you so much for explaining to us all how to "do" internet message boarding. I bow to your all-knowing brilliance and am ashamed to have voiced my stupid opinion.

Always happy to help!

 

[Scooch]

Something keeps getting lost here. The B1G and SEC are adding markets and brands, not schools. If they already have a market, they’re not going to add another school from that market, unless the school has an elite brand. That’s why Texas is going to the SEC and USC/UCLA are both going B1G. But it’s also why Florida State and Miami aren’t going to the SEC and why only one of them (probably FSU) is going B1G. And it’s why a lot of people are overvaluing Kansas and Duke.

Here’s what’s left of the markets:

NC - Neither conference represented. UNC could go to one, with NC State to the other. No room for Duke or Wake.

SC - SEC has the Cocks, but might want Clemson because of their brand. Otherwise B1G.

Georgia - It’s Tech (and TNT Studios) to the B1G or nothing.

Florida - SEC won’t piss off UF. B1G will take one between FSU and Miami. Miami could be one of the last teams in because of their brand. I don’t think it’s worth mentioning UCF.

Virginia - Like in NC, both UVA and VPI should find a new home.

Oregon - Not much of a market, so this is only about the brand and only one conference will capitalize. The other conference won’t want OSU.

Washington - Seattle is the appeal here. Similar to the above, WSU won’t draw interest.

Arizona - If Arizona goes B1G, I could see the SEC taking ASU for the Phoenix market, but not the other way around. Maybe the SEC would take both.

California - I can’t see either Bay Area school in the SEC. I could see both in the B1G, though.

Colorado - This is an underrated market both conferences will have interest in.

Utah - I think BYU is the target here, not Utah. And I think this is more about brand than market.

Texas - The SEC is done here and I don’t think the B1G is that desperate to add a Texas school. Makes more sense for them to go after A&M than to settle for Baylor/TT/TCU/Houston.

Oklahoma/Iowa - I don’t see either conference needing OSU or ISU.

Kansas - Folks, Kansas brings nothing to the table. Nothing. The B1G doesn’t need the KC market (and already has STL with Illinois) and the SEC preferred Mizzou. KU and KSU are screwed.

West Virginia - WVU is screwed.

Kentucky - Louisville is probably screwed.

Ohio - Cincy is definitely screwed.

Indiana - Obviously ND is about the brand.

Pennsylvania - Coin flip on whether or not the SEC would be interested in Pitt. B1G won’t be.

Massachusetts - Coin flip on either conference having interest in BC.

New York - I guess Rutgers is good enough for the B1G. We have two prayers: NE expansion by the SEC or a last minute add like Miami.

By my math, we’re looking at no more than 16 additional schools joining the super conferences. A lot of good programs will be left hanging, but that’s not a bad thing, because the next tier should still be competitive.

Someone gets it. I’m not sure that every market you listed will break that way specifically, but it’s certainly the way things are being evaluated.

Ultimately SU may end up in the 3rd conference of a world where 2 conferences dominate football. But that may not be the end of the world. Our hoops can compete, as can all of our other Olympic sports.

One other thought about SU football… even if we had been winning 7-8 games a year for the past decade, I doubt that’d matter. The schools that really outperform their market/have premium brand value tend to be Championship caliber, ala Clemson. Unless we were on that level we’d be just another OK football program, rather indistinguishable from all the other 7-8 win programs that no one here cares about.