USC and UCLA to the Big Ten

[sutomcat]

Always happy to help!

LOL.

This is a strong candidate for post of the month, and we are only 3 days in...

 

[Noexcuse]

if the ACC is raided SU probably gets left behind. Hard to see us in the “top” 48 based on numerous arguments others have made. Need to hope for 2 “leagues” of 64 schools for us to be included. My guess is the ACC stays regional and brings in new schools to back fill the ones who leave. I know this won’t excite anyone but cobbling together a third mega conference of leftovers spanning the country makes little sense. One thing I wonder about is will BC or UConn get the call from the B1G? Man would that be a slap in the face.

 

[Chris02M]

if the ACC is raided SU probably gets left behind. Hard to see us in the “top” 48 based on numerous arguments others have made. Need to hope for 2 “leagues” of 64 schools for us to be included. My guess is the ACC stays regional and brings in new schools to back fill the ones who leave. I know this won’t excite anyone but cobbling together a third mega conference of leftovers spanning the country makes little sense. One thing I wonder about is will BC or UConn get the call from the B1G? Man would that be a slap in the face.

there is no chance uconn gets a call as they couldnt even get into big 12 or acc and there going to be invited to join the bigten? Cmon

 

[DCUNITED13]

Bring back the Lambert Trophy is a what everyone is saying. LOL

SU did win it 6 times.

 

[Chris02M]

if the ACC is raided SU probably gets left behind. Hard to see us in the “top” 48 based on numerous arguments others have made. Need to hope for 2 “leagues” of 64 schools for us to be included. My guess is the ACC stays regional and brings in new schools to back fill the ones who leave. I know this won’t excite anyone but cobbling together a third mega conference of leftovers spanning the country makes little sense. One thing I wonder about is will BC or UConn get the call from the B1G? Man would that be a slap in the face.

It depends how big the super leagues want to get ,at 20 per we are definitely not getting included, at 24 per we are in the discussion since we are the flagship private university in New York state which the big ten has nothing upstate but it depends on lots of factors, at 32 a piece we are safely into the power 2 but that is likely years down the road

 

[kcsu]

Someone gets it. I’m not sure that every market you listed will break that way specifically, but it’s certainly the way things are being evaluated.

Ultimately SU may end up in the 3rd conference of a world where 2 conferences dominate football. But that may not be the end of the world. Our hoops can compete, as can all of our other Olympic sports.

One other thought about SU football… even if we had been winning 7-8 games a year for the past decade, I doubt that’d matter. The schools that really outperform their market/have premium brand value tend to be Championship caliber, ala Clemson. Unless we were on that level we’d be just another OK football program, rather indistinguishable from all the other 7-8 win programs that no one here cares about.

I posted this earlier. As long as we are in one of the remaining conferences that get an automatic bid to the 12 team playoffs. We just need enough resources to compete within our conference.

 

[Orangefizz]

Best case scenario for Syracuse is the SEC goes to 20 by adding 4 PAC teams and the BIG stops at 20 with Notre Dame Stanford Oregon and Washington.

That would leave the ACC to pick off the best 6 Big 12 teams to get to 20; effectively killing the Big 12 and the Pac 12.

However if the SEC adds 4+ ACC teams or either conference decides to go beyond 20 then Syracuse will be relegated.

 

[baggerbob]

I posted this earlier. As long as we are in one of the remaining conferences that get an automatic bid to the 12 team playoffs. We just need enough resources to compete within our conference.

If the ACC had gone on the open market when Florida St and Clemson were winning Championships we wouldn't be in this situation.
Tying ourselves to ESPN was the beginning of the end for the league.

 

[Orangefan1]

The whole situation is insane and I can’t see in the long run teams hating this eventually and making leagues again closer to their geographic areas in the long run, money really ruins everything

 

[CU44SE]

People are getting way to caught up in the word conference. As others have said. Think about this as a professional conference with divisors within the conference. Each division within the conference will be based on regions. You would play everyone in your region/division. And then Instead of out of conference games the rest of the games would be divided into your other divisions of your conference. More content and more money from the networks. They will only play teams from within there conference would be my guess.

 

[Cuse181]

The whole situation is insane and I can’t see in the long run teams hating this eventually and making leagues again closer to their geographic areas in the long run, money really ruins everything

It was about money when the conferences first were created because they needed to guarantee games that would draw regional interest. Money is the only reason this level of sports exists.

 

[Toga]

Least of the issues, but wonder how all this will impact the world of bowl games.

 

[MikeSU02]

I’d recommend heading over to the cfb subreddit for some interesting discussions if you’re looking for more viewpoints outside of ours.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

 

[rrlbees]

The whole situation is insane and I can’t see in the long run teams hating this eventually and making leagues again closer to their geographic areas in the long run, money really ruins everything

4x16.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Something keeps getting lost here. The B1G and SEC are adding markets and brands, not schools. If they already have a market, they’re not going to add another school from that market, unless the school has an elite brand. That’s why Texas is going to the SEC and USC/UCLA are both going B1G. But it’s also why Florida State and Miami aren’t going to the SEC and why only one of them (probably FSU) is going B1G. And it’s why a lot of people are overvaluing Kansas and Duke.

Here’s what’s left of the markets:

NC - Neither conference represented. UNC could go to one, with NC State to the other. No room for Duke or Wake.

SC - SEC has the Cocks, but might want Clemson because of their brand. Otherwise B1G.

Georgia - It’s Tech (and TNT Studios) to the B1G or nothing.

Florida - SEC won’t piss off UF. B1G will take one between FSU and Miami. Miami could be one of the last teams in because of their brand. I don’t think it’s worth mentioning UCF.

Virginia - Like in NC, both UVA and VPI should find a new home.

Oregon - Not much of a market, so this is only about the brand and only one conference will capitalize. The other conference won’t want OSU.

Washington - Seattle is the appeal here. Similar to the above, WSU won’t draw interest.

Arizona - If Arizona goes B1G, I could see the SEC taking ASU for the Phoenix market, but not the other way around. Maybe the SEC would take both.

California - I can’t see either Bay Area school in the SEC. I could see both in the B1G, though.

Colorado - This is an underrated market both conferences will have interest in.

Utah - I think BYU is the target here, not Utah. And I think this is more about brand than market.

Texas - The SEC is done here and I don’t think the B1G is that desperate to add a Texas school. Makes more sense for them to go after A&M than to settle for Baylor/TT/TCU/Houston.

Oklahoma/Iowa - I don’t see either conference needing OSU or ISU.

Kansas - Folks, Kansas brings nothing to the table. Nothing. The B1G doesn’t need the KC market (and already has STL with Illinois) and the SEC preferred Mizzou. KU and KSU are screwed.

West Virginia - WVU is screwed.

Kentucky - Louisville is probably screwed.

Ohio - Cincy is definitely screwed.

Indiana - Obviously ND is about the brand.

Pennsylvania - Coin flip on whether or not the SEC would be interested in Pitt. B1G won’t be.

Massachusetts - Coin flip on either conference having interest in BC.

New York - I guess Rutgers is good enough for the B1G. We have two prayers: NE expansion by the SEC or a last minute add like Miami.

By my math, we’re looking at no more than 16 additional schools joining the super conferences. A lot of good programs will be left hanging, but that’s not a bad thing, because the next tier should still be competitive.

Duke has a strong brand so they could make it. UNC holds all the cards. They can tell the B1G and SEC we want Duke and UVA to come along with us. Then it becomes a game of chicken.

ESPN will want the SEC to take both FSU and Miami, but the SEC will push back. I think FSU could come along especially if it keeps the B1G out of Florida. Yes, the B!G can add Miami but Miami is a private school and hasn't been Top 10 since 2003, has one Top 15 since 2004, and only four Top 25s since 2005. They aren't the threat that FSU to the B1G would be. I do think the B1G would take both FSU and Miami as FOX would want that and it is a bigger presence in the state.

VA Tech might get left out. If the SEC gets UVA, I don't think the B1G adds VA Tech. Possible but IMO not likely.

Arizona is the big catch in the state. No need to take 2 teams. ASU I think gets left out. Their only shot is the SEC, but if no other schools around them are in the SEC are they worth it as a geographical outlier? I say no.

I think Stanford will either be B1G or P12. Cal might get left behind. They have no brand, no fanbase, no additional market, and aren't good at sports. Their only shot IMO is if the B1G wants an additional Western school to even out the non FB schedules.

Colorado will be a battle ground. It is the connector to the West for both. I could see the SEC taking them along with BYU and an AZ school. I could see the B1G taking them along with Utah and an Arizona school.

I think BYU is a big get for the SEC as it will give them SLC and a presence in CA. IMO the B1G would prefer Utah.

Depending on who wins the West, I could see Texas or A&M leaving for the B1G. It isn't likely but possible.

ISU only gets in if the B1G has 31 teams and has no other team as 32nd.

Okie State is possible. They have a decent brand. But they are likely left out.

I think K State gets left out. They are like ISU where they only get in if the SEC has no one else to make a round number of teams. Kansas has a great brand in BBall. They will get in. They offer a connector to the West. They have a presence in KC. I think both the B1G and SEC will want them.

WV has a decent brand but are like Okie State. They isn't enough there. They likely get left out.

Louisville is another Okie State as well.

Cincy has a shot IMO. A small shot but a shot. If the SEC wants to send a big middle finger to the B1G, that will do it.

Pitt is possible to the SEC but very unlikely. I do think the B1G woudl have interest. But that would only be if the B1G goes extra extra large.

BC will have a hard time. B!G is most likely. SEC maybe depending on how everything else plays out.

SU has a good brand and a large BBall fanbase. That adds money for subscription services. Getting that fanbase to pay $5 a month from October to March is just a good as a big FB fanbase paying from August to November. We could get left out, but IMO we get into the B1G. SEC is a long shot.

 

[Toga]

As I understand it the SEC does not have a GOR. Could Mizzou finally get its wish and switch to the B1G? Would the B1G want them?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

As I understand it the SEC does not have a GOR. Could Mizzou finally get its wish and switch to the B1G? Would the B1G want them?

Not any time soon but I do think depending on how everything shakes out, when it is just the B1G and SEC then Mizzou, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, and Vandy all become possible defections. Of those IMO Mizzou is the most likely.

 

[texascpa]

I’d recommend heading over to the cfb subreddit for some interesting discussions if you’re looking for more viewpoints outside of ours.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

Thank you. Just got a great laugh from this piece of sarcasm...or is it:

 

[Hoo's That]

Contractually, what is the soonest an ACC team can bolt for a mega conference?

The GoR runs until 2036. Schools could leave sooner if the conference votes to dissolve itself.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I don't think any of this happens anytime soon. Remember none of these moves have been large. They have been 2-3 teams typically. We haven't seen bigger than that.

I don't think the P12 loses any more schools until their next TV contract is coming to an end. At most maybe 2 more defect, but unlikely IMO. I think Colorado is the next target. Oregon and Washington are in the long term plan but they aren't going to the SEC anytime soon. The B1G knows that and can be patient. Plus a few years of those programs taking a hit will help the divorce with their in state rivals. So the battle for Colorado will happen either now or in 5 years.

The B12 is pretty safe. I do think Kansas will be a battle eventually but that will be at the end of expansion. No reason to take them now. The one team that could move IMO is BY, if Colorado goes now.

ACC no one is leaving anytime soon. It isn't worth the battle. The B1G and SEC have been patient all this time they aren't going to change now. But in 5 or 6 years then game on. I think the battle for Clemson will be the start of it. What happens next depends on who wins Clemson. But even then it will be only 2-4 teams moving. The rest of the assets will be in a holding pattern like Kansas is.

Notre Dame has no reason to join a conference right now. Eventually, yes. How has USC/UCLA changed things. USC had 9 P12 conference games and could fit ND OOC. That doesn't change.

I do not see any more movement now. The possible exception IMO is Colorado plus one other. The ACC IMO will be safe till the end of the decade. Then game on. The B12 doesn't have many desirable teams and is likely safe until the end game. The P12 IMO is safe for the next 5 years. Then we might see movement.

 

[Chris02M]

With the likely hood that most acc teams are currently tied to the GOR i think 20 is going to be the next stopping point, keeping a 3rd league viable for the next round. Clemson and FSU I think will be gone to the SEC along with the 2 Arizona schools, to kill the pac 12 once the Bigten finishes up its western division, but everyone else stays in the ACC for this round and makes a combo league of the best of the big12 and acc

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The GoR runs until 2036. Schools could leave sooner if the conference votes to dissolve itself.

That isn't happening unless they all have a home.

B1G: BC, SU, UVA, UNC, Duke, Clemson, GA Tech, FSU, Miami
SEC: VA Tech, NC State

Will that be enough votes or would Pitt (B1G) and/or Louisville (SEC) need to find a home as well? I don't see this happening. No way the B1G offers that many teams at once. If only 9 teams leave, the other 5 have zero incentive to dissolve as they share the exit fees and can rebuild into a decent East coast conference.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

With the likely hood that most acc teams are currently tied to the GOR i think 20 is going to be the next stopping point, keeping a 3rd league viable for the next round. Clemson and FSU I think will be gone to the SEC along with the 2 Arizona schools, to kill the pac 12 once the Bigten finishes up its western division, but everyone else stays in the ACC for this round and makes a combo league of the best of the big12 and acc

I don't see the need for a combo league. If the leftovers assets have low value to the B1G and SEC now, how can they have value in a combo league? I rather see a 10 team ACC made up of East Coast teams then be in a 20 team national league playing mediocre programs.

 

[TheCusian]

What if ESPN decides that ND to the ACC is a chance to make the business side of the ACC work better for its institutions? Not just “here’s NDs value in CFB distributed equally” but more of a “we see your instability makes an ESPN run ACC weak and poachable, we’re adding ND and putting you on par with the SEC”

Doesn’t ESPN want a strong SEC and a strong ACC? Or do they want to see the ACC implode (along with its network) and gobbled up by a Fox run competitor or something it already owns?

 

[CousCuse]

ESPN will set about undermining the ACC, which it looks like they already have, to drive down the value of the GOR and facilitate teams jumping off.