USC and UCLA to the Big Ten

[Cusefan69]

Does anyone know if there was any comments made by ACC commish or leadership about realignment in general since USC/UCLA was made public or is all quiet on the western front?

 

[Cuse181]

This is just wrong.
Notre Dame will do whatever is in their best interest.

ESPN doesn’t give a chit about the ACC. They had the SEC raid Oklahoma and Texas because they didn’t want to pay the Big XII then just wanted the value of the conference.

Fox just did the same thing to the PAC-12 with UCLA and USC.

ESPN isn’t going to just pay the ACC more just because they have good value and will bleed it out.

The ACC is going to get carved up by the Big Ten and SEC.
It will just be a couple of years.

When the revenues become even bigger in gaps those valuable ACC schools will bite the bullet.

People don’t get the GOR. They give the less valuable schools a payout in the end.

ESPN isn’t going to pay the ACC and it won’t let the ACC get on the open market.

Fox and ESPN will decide which brands they want their conferences to attempt and get.

Notre Dame is the next piece to move.

Then North Carolina will be next.

If the ACC schools were smart they would get ahead of the Big XII and try to do a merger with the PAC-10 schools but it doesn’t appear on their plans.

If the name of the game is football, why would they want UNC? They don’t exactly draw massively for football and they will largely disappear once mack brown is gone. I have to imagine that Duke and UNC are pretty far down the list of potential additions considering they limited football appear. I’d expect to see VT go before either of those two get a call.

 

[texascpa]

Taking a step back...some thoughts:

(i) If I am Clemson, Fla State and UNC, why would I really want to go to the SEC of Big 10 except for the money? The path to the NC is far easier through the ACC. Same is true for ND. I find it tough to believe the Big Ten and SEC would close the door to all other schools for the championship series as then you do not have a true champion.

(ii) Now, as it pertains to money, like any business, rain makers get paid more than non-rain makers. True in consulting firms, law firms, accounting firms, investment banks, etc. If I am Commissioner of the ACC, it is plain and simple that while not optimal there needs to be a more eat what you kill model. Maybe not 100 percent correlation, but to keep Clemson, Fla State, Miami, UNC, they need to paid more for the value they bring to the table. This "tax" will cost the other 10 schools each year, but over time, the 4 names above will change and it is the cost of doing business. I would create a valuation model that includes variables such as hard dollars directly brought in through bowl games, NCAA basketball performance, etc as well as franchise value and run it through the meat grinder.

(iii) It will be far worse and forever permanent for SU, BC, WF etc to be relegated to the new BE and playing Temple, UMass, Conn. That would be really sad.

(iv) I really believe at the end of the day, UNC does not want to give up the lore of tobacco road, and the State of VA does not want to split VA Tech from UVA.

(v) Right now you have 8 schools within spitting distance of each other.

(vi) All the other sports are pretty compatible. Great basketball league. Great lax league. Great field hockey league.

(vii) The super leagues will become boring. The world needs high end boutiques.

Be creative, change the revenue sharing. I suspect in the end, this existing band of brothers could be far happier than getting pounded every weekend and the stronger schools could be able maintain success more easily and the other schools should be able to more easily resurrect themselves. I know my friends who are UMD fans have not enjoyed their Big Ten experience to date. And other than the occasional good year, my friends who are Northwestern fans, do not enjoy their weekends either. And one can only imagine how it feels to be a Vanderbilt alum.

Lets get creative rather than being lemmings.

Sorry, but no one cares about being a true champion if they are making over $100M/year. You could make the very same argument with USC and yet they are moving to the Big 10. They probably didn't even hesitate when the Big 10 came calling.

 

[elimunelson]

Big Ten new media deal starts in 2024.

Big Ten can make even more $$$ with its expansion.
Expansion now isn’t about cable boxes it’s about TV deals.

Big Ten second tier rights are still on the market.

It’s all about the money.

You are assuming the Big Ten won't make a media deal with carve outs for an inclusion of a ND. You guys talk in such absolutes. ND has never ever ever joined a conf for football. I haven't seen a reason why they will do so UNTIL existentially the NCAA doesn't exist or they become a team that the big two conferences can't schedule.

They are already leaving money on the table. Their deal will bridge the money gap as well. I think ND will do nothing until the absolute last second when there is no viable path to continue playing football at the absolute highest level

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Adding Pac-12 schools to an existing ACC doesn’t help the ACC.

The only way for survival to be real would be the 24 schools from the PAC-10 and ACC have a meeting where they could negotiate to dissolve their current conferences and reformat as one new conference but again this alliance would be vulnerable to poaching so it wouldn’t happen as the gamble for the ACC schools would be losing what they currently have.

It’s not going to happen. The ACC is stuck.

The PAC-12 will likely be done fairly soon Arizona/Arizona State/Utah/Colorado to a 16 team Big XII makes sense.
Put BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor on one side and Kansas/Kansas State/UCF/Cincinnati/West Virginia/Iowa State/Oklahoma State/TCU on another or pods.

Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
BYU

Colorado
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

TCU
Houston
Baylor
Texas Tech

Iowa State
UCF
Cincinnati
West Virginia

This conference won’t get major bucks but enough to be decent.

Eventually the conferences will be a shell of what they are today. Combining into a mega conference does nothing to change that. Why should those teams leave the P12 when the B12 money won't be a significant increase? That is just rearranging the deck chairs. They are better off hoping that the B1G or SEC grabs them, while waiting it out in the P12. That goes the same for the ACC schools. A national conference of poor football brands isn't a money maker. Stay regional unless the B1G or SEC come calling. Those P12 schools moving is a panic move.

The only way a national #3 conference works is if it starts from scratch. If the best teams from the P12, B12, and ACC all left to create an 18 team conference, then sure. But keeping all the B12 or all the ACC doesn't cut the fat.

 

[Alsacs]

If the name of the game is football, why would they want UNC? They don’t exactly draw massively for football and they will largely disappear once mack brown is gone. I have to imagine that Duke and UNC are pretty far down the list of potential additions considering they limited football appear. I’d expect to see VT go before either of those two get a call.

It’s been made clear to me the ND fan is more welcome than I am.

I would give an answer but I will go back to obscurity as requested. I hope SU ends up okay.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I still don't get why ND has to make a decision in a few months. If someone can point me to the scenario where they are shut out of any money i'll stand corrected. They have the ultimate optionality because if they decide to join either LIV conference, there will be a seat available to them because their revenue will always be there. It's not a depreciating asset to either league.

I would think the NCAA would have to be disassembled before ND makes a move. Even the GOR expiration may not move them because ultimately if there is so much money for them to make why is it beyond the pale that when they renegotiate their NBC deal they could approach a 100mm per year paycheck for their inventory. If everything is on the table, why can't ND just play all of their games at home. i'm sure enough colleges will still want to play them no matter what.

I agree. I think ND stays put for now and reevaluates in 5 years.

 

[CousCuse]

I agree. I think ND stays put for now and reevaluates in 5 years.

Do you think the ACC is going to treat Notre Dame the same going forward as they have in the past? Until this point there was an expectation that Notre Dame could very well join the ACC so the ACC bent over backwards to comply with their every whim. Now, Notre Dame has basically slapped the ACC in the face and made it clear they will never join the ACC.

 

[Pharm73]

did not read through this entire thread, but just an outside perspective

I think the one plus the ACC has is that it appears to be very hard for a team to withdraw...this should be a fairly big stumbling block to hopefully stop the ACC from being raided

one move that might be made is if the ACC could try to renegotiate tv deals now, even if the current contracts are not expiring...it would be in the best interest of who ever the ACC is tied into, to adjust the payouts as to make it competitive with the BIG and SEC... or at least bring the difference closer... if those holding your tv contracts are not willing, they are putting the arrangement in danger anyway

I know all this might seem naive, and might not be doable, but the tv people have a lot to lose by wanting to stand by a contract that will eventually be busted by defections.

the ACC has a long and proud tradition, maybe a bit more for basketball long term, and pretty well fb wise recently...I would hope it still has a long future

 

[sutomcat]

It’s been made clear to me the ND fan is more welcome than I am.

I would give an answer but I will go back to obscurity as requested. I hope SU ends up okay.

We value opinions from all sides on this issue Alsacs.

I am glad we have you, along with SU, ND, Wahoo and Tar Heel fans too offering insights.

It is a complex issue with a lot of nuances.

I for one still hope there is a way ND gives those B1G scumbags a giant 'old stink eye' and decides to become a full member of the ACC.

I have no use for the B1G. They would happily destroy every conference to make a little more money, when they already have more than they will ever need.

 

[nd1973]

It’s been made clear to me the ND fan is more welcome than I am.

I would give an answer but I will go back to obscurity as requested. I hope SU ends up okay.

I have students like you. They have no issue acting like a know it all and pretend to see all angles.. But the second someone challenges their ideas they scream victim and want that person silenced.

 

[elimunelson]

We value opinions from all sides on this issue Alsacs.

I am glad we have you, along with SU, ND, Wahoo and Tar Heel fans too offering insights.

It is a complex issue with a lot of nuances.

I for one still hope there is a way ND gives those B1G scumbags a giant 'old stink eye' and decides to become a full member of the ACC.

I have no use for the B1G. They would happily destroy every conference to make a little more money, when they already have more than they will ever need.

Alsacs came back to get fired up again just to leave angry...over reallignment. Dude, it's not THAT important to take your ball and go home. You're well read, articulate and a great poster. There are also other well read , articulate and great posters who have different opinions. Some people even dip their toes into inside information which I find interesting as well.

I don't get why you get soooo personal about ND. I LOVE ND. I've been a ND fan forever and respect that they do what they do. Their decisionmaking is about ND. Syracuse's is the same way. We happened to destroy a major conference too because of money. We can't look at everything so narrow minded. ND is why college football is so great IMO. It survives and flourishes because nationally everyone either LOVES them or HATES them.

let's see how it plays out. I think politics will have a say in the final destruction of regional football, I think the networks will want Syracuses and Dukes to survive in some fashion and I think the consumer will demand some sort of national product vs the NWO/WWF-ization of college football.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think the following would work out well as a #3 national mega conference. The problem is half the teams will likely end up in the B1G or SEC one day. Which leaves you a national conference of crap. IMO it makes more sense to stay put. Wait your turn and if you have no seat at the end, be in a regional conference not a national one.

West- Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, BYU
Central- Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Houston
South- FSU, GA Tech, Clemson, UNC, Duke
East- BC, SU, Pitt, VA Tech, Miami

 

[Toga]

Taking a step back...some thoughts:

(i) If I am Clemson, Fla State and UNC, why would I really want to go to the SEC of Big 10 except for the money? The path to the NC is far easier through the ACC. Same is true for ND. I find it tough to believe the Big Ten and SEC would close the door to all other schools for the championship series as then you do not have a true champion.

(ii) Now, as it pertains to money, like any business, rain makers get paid more than non-rain makers. True in consulting firms, law firms, accounting firms, investment banks, etc. If I am Commissioner of the ACC, it is plain and simple that while not optimal there needs to be a more eat what you kill model. Maybe not 100 percent correlation, but to keep Clemson, Fla State, Miami, UNC, they need to paid more for the value they bring to the table. This "tax" will cost the other 10 schools each year, but over time, the 4 names above will change and it is the cost of doing business. I would create a valuation model that includes variables such as hard dollars directly brought in through bowl games, NCAA basketball performance, etc as well as franchise value and run it through the meat grinder.ile

(iii) It will be far worse and forever permanent for SU, BC, WF etc to be relegated to the new BE and playing Temple, UMass, Conn. That would be really sad.

(iv) I really believe at the end of the day, UNC does not want to give up the lore of tobacco road, and the State of VA does not want to split VA Tech from UVA.

(v) Right now you have 8 schools within spitting distance of each other.

(vi) All the other sports are pretty compatible. Great basketball league. Great lax league. Great field hockey league.

(vii) The super leagues will become boring. The world needs high end boutiques.

Be creative, change the revenue sharing. I suspect in the end, this existing band of brothers could be far happier than getting pounded every weekend and the stronger schools could be able maintain success more easily and the other schools should be able to more easily resurrect themselves. I know my friends who are UMD fans have not enjoyed their Big Ten experience to date. And other than the occasional good year, my friends who are Northwestern fans, do not enjoy their weekends either. And one can only imagine how it feels to be a Vanderbilt alum.

Lets get creative rather than being lemmings.

Perhaps. If so, ESPN needs to step up so that at the minimum, the lower profile schools are held harmless (and hopefully better). Still unclear how ESPN views the ACC in terms of financial benefit under different realignment scenarios.

 

[Sherman20]

The big12 has location over the ACC in spades.

How so? The East Coast has the largest TV markets.

 

[rrlbees]

How so? The East Coast has the largest TV markets.

I said location. B12 is much closer to the P12 teams and will have far less travel. Of course the East coast has larger TV markets.

 

[blust2i3d4]

I don't think B1G and SEC want to kill ACC, PAC and Big12. They just want to be the two dominating power. I predict P5 will become P4 with about the same total numbers. B1G and SEC stay at 16. The new playoff will be B1G/SEC champion and runner-up. ACC adds some teams and Big12 merges with PAC leftovers. ACC and Big12 only send champion to playoff. Two wild-cards of the playoff could be selected from any P4 or even other FBS conference based on the final play-off ranking. Division 1 football still needs everybody to participate even from smaller markets which won't be cut off completely just offer slim chance for everybody to reach play-off.
SEC with Texas and Oklahoma and B1G with UCLA and USC are clearly better than other conferences. They should be satisfied. Adding more doesn't create much more value.

 

[Sherman20]

To follow up on my previous post there is no way that ESPN would allow the Big to poach the ACC. SEC maybe but not until the GOR is significantly reduced. The GOR works both ways for the ACC as a whole.
For Syracuse and Wake BC and Pitt it's a God send. For schools like NC, FSU, Clemson it's an anchor.
SU is very lucky that it will cost ND and the other valuable schools an arm and a leg to get out now. If not those schools would be long gone, and we would be left holding our Johnsons.
Time is what SU needs. Time to get our facilities built, to replace JB, to see if Dino makes it or not. Time for the dust to settle. Freedom for us today is death. Thank goodness for the GOR I believe it keeps ND independent and keeps the ACC in the game for them.

I can’t believe that people still don’t understand what the Grant of Rights is. It’s not a penalty or exit fee. Schools agree to give up their TV rights revenue to the conference for the length of the contract. So any TV money an ACC school would make by joining the B1G or SEC, if they were hypothetically to leave, would go to the ACC until 2036. So until that time, they don’t provide any monetary value to the B1G or SEC.

 

[Sherman20]

I said location. B12 is much closer to the P12 teams and will have far less travel. Of course the East coast has larger TV markets.

Do you think travel even matters to these schools and conferences anymore after USC and UCLA joined the B1G? Clearly not. (For the record, I think it should.) The B1G will now stretch from coast to coast. The ACC could add a group of schools west of the Mississippi and they could be their own division. The idea would be to add, for example, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Utah, Kansas, and three Texas schools (or two plus Iowa State) to form a western division.

The ACC has the academic prestige and the GOR that should put it in a better position than the Big12.

 

[Whitey23]

 

[Cuse181]

It’s been made clear to me the ND fan is more welcome than I am.

I would give an answer but I will go back to obscurity as requested. I hope SU ends up okay.

Yikes bud, why are you taking this so personally? I’m just asking for your thoughts on why UNC would be an early target. Doesn’t even have to be you who responds, this is an open forum.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The 2 best FB brands left between the B12 and P12 both play in the P12. So why would teams want to leave?

If I am the B12 I want nothing to do with Utah, and only would consider Arizona State if that is what Arizona required to leave. Then I would add whomever adds the most value between Memphis and USF. That would work out nicely geographically.

West- Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Colorado
South- Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech
North- Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
East- Cincinnati, UCF, West Virginia, USF/Memphis

 

[Sherman20]

Adding Pac-12 schools to an existing ACC doesn’t help the ACC.

The only way for survival to be real would be the 24 schools from the PAC-10 and ACC have a meeting where they could negotiate to dissolve their current conferences and reformat as one new conference but again this alliance would be vulnerable to poaching so it wouldn’t happen as the gamble for the ACC schools would be losing what they currently have.

It’s not going to happen. The ACC is stuck.

The PAC-12 will likely be done fairly soon Arizona/Arizona State/Utah/Colorado to a 16 team Big XII makes sense.
Put BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor on one side and Kansas/Kansas State/UCF/Cincinnati/West Virginia/Iowa State/Oklahoma State/TCU on another or pods.

Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
BYU

Colorado
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

TCU
Houston
Baylor
Texas Tech

Iowa State
UCF
Cincinnati
West Virginia

This conference won’t get major bucks but enough to be decent.

The remaining ACC assets are much more valuable than the Big 12 sans Texas and Oklahoma.

 

[texascpa]

Do you think travel matters to these schools and conferences anymore after USC and UCLA joined the B1G? (For the record, I think it should.) That conference will now stretch from coast to coast. The ACC could add a group of schools west of the Mississippi and they could be their own division. The idea would be to add, for example, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Utah, Kansas, and three Texas schools (or two plus Iowa State) to form a western division.

The ACC has the academic prestige and the GOR that should put it in a better position than the Big12.

Schools will be getting double to quadruple what they currently make. Travel will be a drop in the bucket.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Do you think travel matters to these schools and conferences anymore after USC and UCLA joined the B1G? (For the record, I think it should.) That conference will now stretch from coast to coast. The ACC could add a group of schools west of the Mississippi and they could be their own division. The idea would be to add, for example, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Utah, Kansas, and three Texas schools (or two plus Iowa State) to form a western division.

The ACC has the academic prestige and the GOR that should put it in a better position than the Big12.

USC/UCLA going from $30M to $90M makes up for the travel headache. An ACC school going from $30M to $40M isn't worth the headache. Travel costs would cut into that significantly.