Vegas line for Pitt

[RMH44]

Who is that key? Eric is the obvious one - but I’m not sure it should move by that much. Maybe Cordy?

ED is the ONLY player that could move the line that much.

The good news is that he's fine.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Ok folks . We LOST the Clemson game. If Syracuse is a program with such low expectations as to have letdowns after LOSSES ...then they need to find something else to do ..

I’m not buying it ..betting cuse big

 

[Scotch]

-3 at multiple books now. I’d expect pro $ to get back in on Cuse at -3

Sharps are all on Pitt. Public is on Cuse.

 

[690West]

Sharps are all on Pitt. Public is on Cuse.

Thank god it doesn’t matter who’s on whom

 

[skurey]

Rain and mud would definitely have me worried.

 

[Scotch]

Thank god it doesn’t matter who’s on whom

Or does it?

 

[kcsu]

We are going to destroy them.

 

[Alsacs]

Sharps are all on Pitt. Public is on Cuse.

Sharps were all over Denver on MNF and Mahomes broke them.
Dungey will do the same tomorrow.
Sharps aren’t always right.

 

[SUskibum]

The Bear was on SiriusXM this morning and when the host asked about Syracuse he said he would avoid this game at all costs. Said this game was the biggest mis-match between analytics and line. Everything shows that SU should destroy Pitt, but the line is only 3.5 - said avoid betting this game at all costs - FWIW - doesn’t mean he has some special insight

Personally I think it’s just 16 years of suck and people not trusting Syracuse to actually be a good team. Hopefully this week starts to provide the proof they need to truly believe.

I agree with your analysis. Kentucky is going through the same deal.

People just can’t get their arms around these teams being decent/good

 

[Arangeman]

Sharps are all on Pitt. Public is on Cuse.

And you remove the hook, pros may see value in -3. Buyback. Sharps are on value. Who is on what can change with half a point.

 

[nzm136]

Who is that key? Eric is the obvious one - but I’m not sure it should move by that much. Maybe Cordy?

Me - I’ll be on vacation, so I won’t be able to realistically give my 110% as a fan (I’ll be down to 100%), which is worth 3-4 points.

 

[OrangeinBoston]

There are NO sharps. Just about everybody loses. And, over the long term, everybody loses. That's why it's Vegas. There are NO sharps.

 

[bpo57]

Well Henry Hill's Pittsburgh guys were the connection to the BC player that initiated the point shaving at BC in the late 70's. Maybe some of those guys are still around?

The 30 for 30 on that story was one of the best.

 

[bpo57]

Sharps are all on Pitt. Public is on Cuse.

Line would not have moved three points in Pitt's direction if the "sharps" were on Pitt.

 

[bpo57]

Sharps were all over Denver on MNF and Mahomes broke them.
Dungey will do the same tomorrow.
Sharps aren’t always right.

Supposedly the sharps were constantly betting Cleveland all of last year while the public bet against them every week. Go figure.

 

[bpo57]

And you remove the hook, pros may see value in -3. Buyback. Sharps are on value. Who is on what can change with half a point.

Hard to figure how bettors see value at Pitt -3.5.

 

[Arangeman]

Lot going on here. Pros bet it down initially. Not the public.

Often, when the line gets bet down enough, pros will buyback on the other side at the right value.

It’s been bet back up to Cuse -3.5. Likely pros jumping on it at Cuse -3.

 

[Ish88888]

if the line was 7-10 i would see the letdown factor with a close win.. but when the line goes to 3 that almost a straight pitt cover.

Yes, THAT is super suspicious. You nailed it. 7-10 is believable. I think vegas knows that pitt isnt as bad as their record and always get up for cuse. They have talent and can run it. Something we haven't stopped yet.

 

[Ish88888]

This line and movement show that Syracuse doesn't get any respect and in general people think this team is not "for real". This game will define the season and whether they are contenders or pretenders.

Think it's a combo of Pitt is due and set up to play well at home, esp with their running game and also a function of our very easy schedule pre Clemson including FSU.

 

[Ish88888]

I agree with your analysis. Kentucky is going through the same deal.

People just can’t get their arms around these teams being decent/good

Think the line reflects that Pitt is familiar with us and they are set up to play well at home. Also, our schedule has been red carpeted and we deserve it after rough OOC schedules the last few years...

 

[Dinkyspond]

The 30 for 30 on that story was one of the best.

I don't believe that point guard/captain's story. I am glad BC has separated themselves from him. For him to think he should have some relationship with BC now is utterly ridiculous and absurd. He stained their school forever.

 

[Scotch]

Line would not have moved three points in Pitt's direction if the "sharps" were on Pitt.

Um, that’s exactly how this works. Sharp bettors pounding Pitt +6 with serious money forced bookmakers to adjust the line. The vast majority of bets (smaller public money) are on Cuse.

 

[texascpa]

Just laid down some money on SU less the points. If they lose, I will never, ever make a bet in my life.

 

[kirbivore]

Just laid down some money on SU less the points. If they lose, I will never, ever make a bet in my life.

So you bet your entire net worth?

 

[Crusty]

Just laid down some money on SU less the points. If they lose, I will never, ever make a bet in my life.

CPAs shouldn't bet!