Vegas line for Pitt | Page 4 | Syracusefan.com

Vegas line for Pitt

bpo57 said:
Of course they were hitting CU hard last week. Personally, and I've been following this business for a long time, the notion of the "sharps" is a little bit along the lines of the unicorn.
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Your thoughts on situational betting? Massive let down spot by Cuse and Pitt comes home after getting their butts kicked on the road?
 
if the line was 7-10 i would see the letdown factor with a close win.. but when the line goes to 3 that almost a straight pitt cover.
 
bpo57 said:
Of course they were hitting CU hard last week. Personally, and I've been following this business for a long time, the notion of the "sharps" is a little bit along the lines of the unicorn.
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Bingo. 90% of "sharps" lose money long term. No one has any clue whats going to happen in a given game with hundreds of variables. I enjoy gambling and following ATS trends and all that stuff. But its just fun. The best pro's in the world are barely over 50% most years and when you hear otherwise from touts, they're lying
 
CuseGrad94 said:
Your thoughts on situational betting? Massive let down spot by Cuse and Pitt comes home after getting their butts kicked on the road?
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I get that but it's more than priced into the line imo. Pitt D is routinely giving up 450 yards every week. Too much is on the line for SU to come flat here. Not like it's a sandwich game either. I also like to look at QB matchups and in this case I think it's pretty lobsided.
 
690West said:
Bingo. 90% of "sharps" lose money long term. No one has any clue whats going to happen in a given game with hundreds of variables. I enjoy gambling and following ATS trends and all that stuff. But its just fun. The best pro's in the world are barely over 50% most years and when you hear otherwise from touts, they're lying
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Perfect case in point was UCLA at Colorado last Friday night. The sharps were supposedly all over UCLA and drove the line down three points from 11 to 8. By the end of the night they probably were trying to avoid any "sharp" instruments. UCLA is playing with a freshman QB that has no idea where the ball is going while Colorado isn't half bad and has a very decent QB in Montez. Why would anybody be so fired up about UCLA? Kinda feel the same way about Pitt.
 
bpo57 said:
I get that but it's more than priced into the line imo. Pitt D is routinely giving up 450 yards every week. Too much is on the line for SU to come flat here. Not like it's a sandwich game either. I also like to look at QB matchups and in this case I think it's pretty lobsided.
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FWIW and my ledger proves its not worth much...I agree with you 100%
 
Qbobby said:
Early money is generally the public that knows next to nothing about the details of a game. The smart money comes in later in the week when all the info is out and/or the line hits a point where the value is too good. I'll be very surprised if that line doesn't move back to 6 or 7 by kickoff.
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this notion doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'd think smart would jump early on whacky lines. Though last weeks money wasn't to smart going from 18-25.

I think like last week, this weeks line is another "all in" line. I see Syracuse winning by 14-17 providing we don't turn the ball over.

Weather forecast right now says high of 82 with 80% humidity. I think that actually favors us.
 
how much money is actually being bet on the SU game.. in the grand scheme probably not much.. Last week I had a horse at 40-1 I liked at finger lakes.. got my $10 in feeling good.. but its such a small track someone came in late put down $2k and the line dropped to 2-1 and i win $20.. one Pitt or one SU guy can skew this line like crazy if there is only 5-10K being bet on a small game like this.
 
upperdeck said:
how much money is actually being bet on the SU game.. in the grand scheme probably not much.. Last week I had a horse at 40-1 I liked at finger lakes.. got my $10 in feeling good.. but its such a small track someone came in late put down $2k and the line dropped to 2-1 and i win $20.. one Pitt or one SU guy can skew this line like crazy if there is only 5-10K being bet on a small game like this.
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I'm doing my part to support the SU side. :) I appreciate the other side pushing the line down.
 
upperdeck said:
how much money is actually being bet on the SU game.. in the grand scheme probably not much.. Last week I had a horse at 40-1 I liked at finger lakes.. got my $10 in feeling good.. but its such a small track someone came in late put down $2k and the line dropped to 2-1 and i win $20.. one Pitt or one SU guy can skew this line like crazy if there is only 5-10K being bet on a small game like this.
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So in horse racing your payout depends on the final odds instead of the odds in play at the time you bet ? This would be like you getting a team at -1... and then the line shifting to -3.5...and you losing if they win by 3
 
in the US its the odds when it closes, not the same across the pond.
 
I must be misunderstanding the situation because whatever the odds are when you place your action is what you have it at. It doesn't matter what you are putting action on. The deck is already stacked against gamblers could you imagine if LV or even a local bookie could just arbitrarily change your payout depending on $$ coming in on a certain side after you placed your action.
 
the bookmaker cannot change your odds, that is not to say that the odds on your market selection cannot change. They just won't affect your bet. After you have placed your bet, the price may drift out, or it may shorten, but it will not make any difference to the betting slip you have submitted.
 
So SVP just picked PITT +3.5..saying it was the stupidest line of the year..the world has syracuse, yet the line keeps going down...so he figures something is up..and is taking pitt.
 
STEVEHOLT said:
So SVP just picked PITT +3.5..saying it was the stupidest line of the year..the world has syracuse, yet the line keeps going down...so he figures something is up..and is taking pitt.
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This line stinks
 
STEVEHOLT said:
So SVP just picked PITT +3.5..saying it was the stupidest line of the year..the world has syracuse, yet the line keeps going down...so he figures something is up..and is taking pitt.
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The Bear was on SiriusXM this morning and when the host asked about Syracuse he said he would avoid this game at all costs. Said this game was the biggest mis-match between analytics and line. Everything shows that SU should destroy Pitt, but the line is only 3.5 - said avoid betting this game at all costs - FWIW - doesn’t mean he has some special insight

Personally I think it’s just 16 years of suck and people not trusting Syracuse to actually be a good team. Hopefully this week starts to provide the proof they need to truly believe.
 
OrangeMojo said:
The Bear was on SiriusXM this morning and when the host asked about Syracuse he said he would avoid this game at all costs. Said this game was the biggest mis-match between analytics and line. Everything shows that SU should destroy Pitt, but the line is only 3.5 - said avoid betting this game at all costs - FWIW - doesn’t mean he has some special insight

Personally I think it’s just 16 years of suck and people not trusting Syracuse to actually be a good team. Hopefully this week starts to provide the proof they need to truly believe.
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sort of the opposite of the basketball team last year when there were some free money lines in which syracuse was giving up way too many points.
 
OrangeMojo said:
The Bear was on SiriusXM this morning and when the host asked about Syracuse he said he would avoid this game at all costs. Said this game was the biggest mis-match between analytics and line. Everything shows that SU should destroy Pitt, but the line is only 3.5 - said avoid betting this game at all costs - FWIW - doesn’t mean he has some special insight

Personally I think it’s just 16 years of suck and people not trusting Syracuse to actually be a good team. Hopefully this week starts to provide the proof they need to truly believe.
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Good post. No one has special insight. The Bear can't even tell you the names of our starting WR's. Hes fun though.
 
It's nuts that the prevailing thought is "this is weird, Syracuse is better by near every measure, but Vegas" ...

The best I can come up with is:

- hope of a letdown after Clemson (don't see it)
- that last drive was a blueprint and that we can be run on (I think this is bunk)
- Narduzzi can do what Shafer did to us somehow (I don't think so)
- Marino is starting for Pitt (he's probably still able to sling it)
 
I have never bet on a sports game...I might put a bill on this one.
 
I teased this game with the Patriots last night to a pick em and then just took more action at 3.5 yesterday. I fail to see where Pitt hangs with us. The D gives me great comfort in that we can win this thing in a shootout or in a game where Pitt can string out 5-7 minute drives trying to come back from 13-3 or something. Key for this one, IMO, is to get ahead early and make them chase us.

I smell 30-10 type game. Feels like it'll be a rockfight
 
TheCusian said:
It's nuts that the prevailing thought is "this is weird, Syracuse is better by near every measure, but Vegas" ...

The best I can come up with is:

- hope of a letdown after Clemson (don't see it)
- that last drive was a blueprint and that we can be run on (I think this is bunk)
- Narduzzi can do what Shafer did to us somehow (I don't think so)
- Marino is starting for Pitt (he's probably still able to sling it)
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I think I have it figured out. the line keeps dropping despite everyone having Syracuse so everyone, just like us, will stand in bewilderment..figure something is up...and put money on Pitt..because vegas "MUST" know something...so the money will even out..and even end up plus on PITT..yet the line will not move..and when cuse wins by 30..vegas will make a nice sum.
 
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