On paper, this is a game that SU should win, by a couple. I think Syracuse has a pretty clear advantage in every positional group, save LSM, and perhaps FOGO if Ghobrial plays (definitely if he is out). If you just go by midseason IL awards, SU leads 9-3. It's not everything obviously, but SU has a talent advantage here. They need to exploit it.
But of course, games are not played on paper. You may want to overlook the Cavs based on their record, but they didn't lose to chumps. Four losses to pretty good teams (Maryland, Richmond, Ohio State and Hopkins when they had Melendez healthy). They beat teams that Syracuse has played by similar scores (Towson and Utah). Despite missing three five star freshmen to injury, they are still a lineup littered with top recruits and five star rankings. This isn't a team to take likely.
Millon hasn't had the season we all thought he might (18% shooting), but he's still a dynamic player. I think he still draws Figuerias in this matchup. After that it gets interesting. Sunderland leads the team in scoring with 41 points, but physically, Dwan might match up better with Ryan Colsey, or bump up to midfield to guard Schutz. But maybe the coaches like Dwan and his MIAA connections on Sunderland? UVA has not gotten much out of their midfield, which should really favor the SU defense.
On offense, lots of talk about Spallina, but this is a game for the SU midfield. I think this comes down to Michael Leo and Luke Rhoa, and if those two can have hat tricks, this game really opens up for SU. Last year the entire first midfield had three points, and Jake Stevens had four. I don't think Spallina will match up well with the length of UVA's defense, but SU's midfield should be able to score. They need to produce this year. Also the second line needs to put something forward this game.
I'm curious to see how SU handles playing on grass, a surface they haven't played on this year. SU has only played two total games outdoors this year, so it's another thing to watch for. Other than that, Ghobrial's health will be a big talking point, as UVA looks thin in that department if he can't go.
Personally I think this will be a SU victory, something like 14-10, but UVA certainly has it in them to take it to SU if the Orange get complacent. They'll have their backs against the wall, and if they win it will put the Orange on notice for a spot in the tournament. Syracuse needs to play as desperate as UVA in this one. Go Orange!
