I believe there's a 0% chance JW hires someone who is not a SU basketball alumni. 0%. It can't imagine it's not simply between Red and Hop.
JB commented on Coach K's succession plan, specifically the part where it was passed down within the program, and said something like "that's the way to do it".
I think Hop is the first choice, in part, because nothing has been announced. Obviously you cannot announce the plan if it involves taking Washington's coach. On the other hand, you could announce the plan if it involved promoting the SU associate head coach, and, from a talent retention and recruiting standpoint, I don't see any benefit to withholding that information if that's the case. If Red's taking over, it would be easier to land and keep players if you tell them that. Last time there was a succession plan (when Hop was coach-in-waiting), they announced the plan. Granted things changed and the plan wasn't executed, but it didn't fail because the plan was public. What reason would SU have to do anything differently the second time (except maybe not identifying an exact deadline in case JB wants an extra year or two)?
On the other hand, maybe it's private simply because JB doesn't like talking about his retirement. We all know that, and Buddy even said as much on a recent podcast I believe with Mike Waters. Buddy said he thinks JB coaches 1-3 more years (with 3 being likely the absolute most), but said he has no idea and JB doesn't talk about it (who knows if that's true, but the point remains).
Also, Chris Bunch said he really liked Hop and was about to commit, but "things changed over night". That could mean he was told Hop was coming back to SU, and that saves him from having to transfer to follow his coach. Could also mean nothing. Hearing something about Hop's potential return would make sense, but I also have a hard time believing they told a kid about it and trust him to keep it quiet.
When asked about the SU job within the last year or so, Hop gave a vague answer -- something like he's worried about winning games this season. That's the exact type of answer someone gives who wants to be considered for the job and leave his options open.
Hop's days at Washington might be limited whether he likes it or not, another reason for him to reset the shot clock and move back to SU.
He would also be more successful on the East Coast given his connections. He wants to build a legacy, and will want to coach the team that will provide him the best opportunity for success.
Hop's best asset is his charisma (as per accounts; I've never met him). Coaching is a job. Charismatic people have a tendency to land jobs. He knows all the decision-makers and important people affiliated with SU, and one could see him being able to talk his way into the job, despite his ups and downs at Washington.
Hop's aging parents work against this though, as he may want to be on the West coast for end of life care. If they are getting close to end of life, and if that's the plan everyone settled on, I'm sure JB would coach an extra year or so (as long as he's healthy). Not sure if he has siblings who live near his parents and could care for them.
There's a lot of moving pieces to bringing Hop back to SU, so I would give at least equal odds the next coach is Red.
Hop was a great recruiter and the program's recent demise was exacerbated by his leaving. Not only was he a recruiting ace, but all of the guys loved him. He kept kids in the program who wanted to leave, including Dion Waiters. That's incredibly important in the new era of the transfer portal. Listen to Devo's podcasts -- Hop was their guy. Syracuse's main issue lately has been lack of top talent. If he can bring that back to SU, then why not give him a chance. Bring in guys with NBA potential and let them get buckets. They don't need to (and won't) give him a lifetime contract. Give him 5 years and see if he can bring them back to consistently being in the top 25 and landing top 75 recruits. If not, move on and open it up. The mixed results at Washington shouldn't count him out. He inherited a dead program and revived it, and then had ups and downs (with the downs being really bad). It's hard to be good at your job, no matter the job, without experience and failing a few times. Maybe he got it out of his system, learned from his mistakes and learned what works and what doesn't, and is ready to lead a winning team. Ultimately, Hop has potential--whether or not he's lived up to it yet--and he's the most obvious choice and close to the program, so why not try it for a few years.
I think a national search for non-SU alumni would be wildly underwhelming. We won't land a big-name proven winner. Popovich isn't going to leave the NBA to coach Syracuse. Rick Pitino has a stained record and SU is paranoid about more sanctions. I think the candidates will be coaches looking to make their name, not unlike Hop or even Red. That means it would be hard to beat out a charismatic alumni who has proven he can recruit and retain talent in Syracuse NY at the highest level. If I'm wrong, and there's a really qualified candidate, by all means hire him. I just don't see it.
