why su could slip up--espn article | Syracusefan.com

why su could slip up--espn article

cuseclappy

Winner 2016 SU Football Season Prediction Contest
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What could go wrong? The Orange don't get enough outside shooting
While Syracuse certainly has the depth and firepower to get to the Final Four, outside shooting is definitely a concern for this team. Last season, the Orange shot a pedestrian 35 percent from behind the arc, and they return all of their key perimeter players. None of them individually shot better than 36 percent from the 3-point line.

Syracuse's free throw shooting is also a problem. Last season the Orange shot just 66.5 percent, ranking them 260th in the country. Also, the team only got 18.5 percent of its offense from the line last season (according to kenpom.com), which ranked 298th nationally.

A lack of proficiency from the perimeter and at the line could send the Orange home prematurely in 2011-12.
 
Can't argue with any of those points. We could certainly use marked improvement from Mookie and Southerland to help offset that 3-point issue (though I don't think that will ever happen). I'm still hoping Cooney sees playing time this year so we have SOMEBODY to act as that badly needed sniper that JB is willing to use regularly, but that's probably an even longer shot than seeing Mookie or Southerland out there.
 
To be fair, poor free throw shooting isn't a "What Could Go Wrong" scenario - it's a "What Will Go Wrong."

It's more likely that I take over Rakeem Christmas's starting spot during Big East play than it is that Syracuse ends up shooting better than 70% from the line.

Really, defense is key to the team's success. If our guards want to press up top and we get a ton of transition points, we'll probably be very good. If they play like last year - Scoop slow to drop to the high post, Triche moving around like he's made of stone and dropping under screens, Waiters completely lost - we'll be reliant on our half-court offense to score points. And we don't usually get a ton of success that way.
 
I think we could be surprisingly adept at shooting free throws this year. In the exhibition game, Fab showed some improvement, and I was pleasantly surprised by Rak's form and routine at the line. I think we could shoot decently from the post positions, and those are always the biggest areas of concern, because we know that, for the most part, guys like Kris, Brandon and Scoop are going to be 75-80% range and up for the year.
 
I think we could be surprisingly adept at shooting free throws this year. In the exhibition game, Fab showed some improvement, and I was pleasantly surprised by Rak's form and routine at the line. I think we could shoot decently from the post positions, and those are always the biggest areas of concern, because we know that, for the most part, guys like Kris, Brandon and Scoop are going to be 75-80% range and up for the year.
Yeah, we were hurt last season by how much our crappy free throw shooters were the guys getting to the line.
 
I think we could be surprisingly adept at shooting free throws this year. In the exhibition game, Fab showed some improvement, and I was pleasantly surprised by Rak's form and routine at the line. I think we could shoot decently from the post positions, and those are always the biggest areas of concern, because we know that, for the most part, guys like Kris, Brandon and Scoop are going to be 75-80% range and up for the year.

I'll never be hoodwinked again after last season. Fab, Fair, and Keita all came in as allegedly terrific shooters. Each showed good form in the first exhibition game. As the season wore on, all three became some degree of awful from the line.

Yeah, Keita was hurt. And Fab and Fair might've hit the wall. But Syracuse doesn't emphasize free throw shooting, and it shows.

I was most disappointed in Scoop's regression last season. Dropped from near 80% (where he should be) to the high 60s? That seemed yet another consequence of his playing 10 pounds too heavy last year. He, Triche, and Waiters should all be 85% from the line.

Joseph should be, too, but I've seen nothing in three years to indicate that he's interested in focusing on knocking them down. More of the same on Saturday; he went to the line distracted, kind of tossed them up there, and the end result was bricks.
 
3 point shooting is why I hope we don't redshirt Cooney. I think if he's given a chance he can grow into the season much like KO did in 08.
 
We will have to see what happens but in theory yes if we shoot poorly from the FT line and 3pt line we will have a hard time making it anywhere in the NCAAT.

I think we may get bye with having enough decent shooters this year from deep. But it would sure help if Triche or Joseph not only shot about 40% but did so steadily without being too streaky.

As far as FT shooting Scoop, Bradon and Dion have great strokes from the line and if they focus should all be above 80% IMO.
Kirs and CJ should be 75%+ if they focus.
Fab, Keita and Rak look good but we need a much bigger sample size IMO but still if the three of them can shoot better than 60% we could be a very good ft shooting team.
 
...free throw improvement will be significantly better as I believe Fab, Keita, and Christmas will be 70% shooters vs. Jackson at 50%...additionally, I hopefully believe that Triche starts making some 3s..and we have Cooney and MCW there too...I am not looking for Waiters/Scoop to contribute from the 3 pt line; rather in driving to basket is their forte
 
...free throw improvement will be significantly better as I believe Fab, Keita, and Christmas will be 70% shooters

Has a big in the Boeheim era ever shot 70% from the line?

(Just answered my own question before posting: yes, freshman Roosevelt Bouie shot 83% in Boeheim's first year. He dropped to 59% the next year and hovered at 65.4% or below for the next two years. Schayes also shot 82% in his senior year. Dave Siock shot 72.7% while platooning with Conrad during his junior year and was 9-for-10 in limited time as a senior.)

If we throw in Coleman shooting in the low-70s one year while he played the 4, that's four Syracuse bigs since 1976 who have shot 70% or better from the line (and Roosevelt's good year looks like a tremendous aberration). And Fab shot 36% last year. While I understand that he has very good form, I don't see him shooting 70% for a season while he's at Syracuse.

I'll happily eat those words in April if he (or Keita, or Christmas) pulls it off.
 
I'm not concerned at this point. I think we will have adequate 3 point shooting and FT%. Our strengths should be defense and transition.
 
Rak made 1 of 2 the other night but his shot is horrible. A straight line drive. I expect him to be a 50% FT shooter.
 
If anything its the 3 ball that has me worried more than anything else. Without that thread to open up the paint and driving lanes it really forces those "What" KJo charges ... not to mention Waiters' drives into traffic. Miss Andy.
 
Has a big in the Boeheim era ever shot 70% from the line?

(Just answered my own question before posting: yes, freshman Roosevelt Bouie shot 83% in Boeheim's first year. He dropped to 59% the next year and hovered at 65.4% or below for the next two years. Schayes also shot 82% in his senior year. Dave Siock shot 72.7% while platooning with Conrad during his junior year and was 9-for-10 in limited time as a senior.)

If we throw in Coleman shooting in the low-70s one year while he played the 4, that's four Syracuse bigs since 1976 who have shot 70% or better from the line (and Roosevelt's good year looks like a tremendous aberration). And Fab shot 36% last year. While I understand that he has very good form, I don't see him shooting 70% for a season while he's at Syracuse.

I'll happily eat those words in April if he (or Keita, or Christmas) pulls it off.

That's the second class Bernie teaches the Bigs "Its not good enough to just miss your free throws, you need to miss them badly." Right after that drill where he gets out the broom and stands on a chair. I think these are both featured segments in all of Bernie's Big Man tapes. You can get them on BetaMax at your local Woolworth, Woolco, Jamesway, G C Murphy, Grants, JJ Newberry or McCrory's. Get yours while its hot.
 
I'm not really concerned with the 3-ball because the most important thing is just letting the defense know you have threats. We may not have a single dead-eye playing regular minutes in that regard, but if Fair's stroke is for real and he can hit just enough to keep defenses honest, we will be playing 20 minutes a night with 4 guys who can hit from deep.
 
"Keep defenses honest" is the most important part, and that's what people tend to forget. It's obviously nice to HIT 35-40% of your perimeter shots, but if you don't even take them, the defense can just pack it in and challenge you to shoot, and completely take away the paint.
 
What could go wrong? The Orange don't get enough outside shooting
While Syracuse certainly has the depth and firepower to get to the Final Four, outside shooting is definitely a concern for this team. Last season, the Orange shot a pedestrian 35 percent from behind the arc, and they return all of their key perimeter players. None of them individually shot better than 36 percent from the 3-point line.

Syracuse's free throw shooting is also a problem. Last season the Orange shot just 66.5 percent, ranking them 260th in the country. Also, the team only got 18.5 percent of its offense from the line last season (according to kenpom.com), which ranked 298th nationally.

A lack of proficiency from the perimeter and at the line could send the Orange home prematurely in 2011-12.

Why i don't think Cooney redshirts.We will need him this year.
 
I also think last year we didn't have anyone that had midrange game off of the dribble. Everyone was either shooting the three or trying to get all the way to the rim. I think CJ will be better at that this year, especially with an improved outside shot. Hopefully he can make use of a little up fake with a couple dribbles and a pull-up 12-15 footer. If he can do that, he'll give teams fits and open up stuff for other guys. I'd say the same about Kris Joseph, but I don't think he has that natural feel for it.
 
I also think last year we didn't have anyone that had midrange game off of the dribble. Everyone was either shooting the three or trying to get all the way to the rim. I think CJ will be better at that this year, especially with an improved outside shot. Hopefully he can make use of a little up fake with a couple dribbles and a pull-up 12-15 footer. If he can do that, he'll give teams fits and open up stuff for other guys. I'd say the same about Kris Joseph, but I don't think he has that natural feel for it.

I agree with sufandu that we need that midrange game to make up for the average 3 point shooting. In addition to CJ, Triche should have that midrange game, as should Dion. Melo could add to the midrange game -- something we didn't have at all from the bigs last season. We might be just average in 3 point shooting and FT shooting, so we make up for that by having our young bigs get better inside, on defense block shots, and let the guards run and get opportunities to finish.
 
Another year, another Syracuse team that will likely shoot poorly from the FT line. It's going to hurt here and there but over the course of a season the team often manages to do well despite this shortcoming.

I'm far less worried about the 3 point shooting. The team may not have that deadly shooter who's guaranteed to be part of the rotation, but a number of known quantities shoot it well enough to keep defenses honest. Scoop is a career 36% shooter from behind the arc, and shot .368 from 3 in conference play last season. Joseph emerged at a .366 clip from 3 last year, and .409 in league play. Triche's offensive numbers are skewed by the horrific November/December he had last year, he shot .348 from 3 in conference play. MCW comes in as a demonstrated three point threat at the high school level. Fair looks like he could join the ranks of the three point threats on this team, his stroke looked nice on the rare occasions that we saw it last year, and there's been plenty talk of how he's become improved in this area as we prepare to start the season. We'll see what Dion has to offer, his overall % was decent last year though he dropped off terribly in conference play. Southerland can obviously stroke it if he can crack the rotation. As for Cooney, we know he's deadly and I think he will ultimately prove to be a solid contributor at SU, but the backcourt is too damn competitive this year, I can't see how he possibly gets PT with Scoop, Triche, Dion and MCW all on the roster. Bottom line, at worst this will be an average three point shooting team, though a number of guys should be threats to knock em down.
 
I'll never be hoodwinked again after last season. Fab, Fair, and Keita all came in as allegedly terrific shooters. Each showed good form in the first exhibition game. As the season wore on, all three became some degree of awful from the line.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who remembers this. Fab was swishing free throws in that exhibition game, and then he gets to the line in the regular season, and nothing.

I was most disappointed in Scoop's regression last season. Dropped from near 80% (where he should be) to the high 60s? That seemed yet another consequence of his playing 10 pounds too heavy last year. He, Triche, and Waiters should all be 85% from the line.

The only thing I'd say somewhat in his defense are the sample sizes are so small in college a bad stretch from the line can really hurt you.

He went from 75% to 66%. Definitely really bad, in terms of a drop, but the difference between that and th eyear prior was like 8 or 9 free throws. Not trying to minimize it, those 8 or 9 points could hurt us over the course of the season, but I'm more willing to write off, so to speak, a down year at the line from a player because of that. (Which isn't to say being a little chubby didn't effect his FT %.) Scoop for his career is about a 72% shooter from the line, so I'd set the over/under thereabouts for next year.

I do agree with the general point; either we like to recruit guys who can't shoot FT or we don't emphasize it enough. Since 2003, we've been 70% or better once, in 2007, and that was 70%. Our best ranking is 150th, so we've never been in the top half of the country in free throw shooting. Mind boggling.
 
He went from 75% to 66%. Definitely really bad, in terms of a drop, but the difference between that and th eyear prior was like 8 or 9 free throws. Not trying to minimize it, those 8 or 9 points could hurt us over the course of the season, but I'm more willing to write off, so to speak, a down year at the line from a player because of that. (Which isn't to say being a little chubby didn't effect his FT %.) Scoop for his career is about a 72% shooter from the line, so I'd set the over/under thereabouts for next year.

Good point. He's not someone who really gets to the line very often.

Scoop has good form, though - good enough to stay over 80% for the whole year. I hope we see it.
 

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