Winning Plays - Louisville

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgements, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: L28, L14, L22, L25
Total: Syracuse 3 Louisville 1
P: 40 to L25, 43 to L28, 25 to 32, 33 to L20, 54 to L18, 30 to L21, 50 to L15, 61 to L18, 42 to L33, 34 to L49, 25 to SU40, 59 to 44
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 4
FG: No Good (55)
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 0

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 15 Louisville 6

1r: 1, 2, 5, 12, 0, -1, 3, 2, 5, 1(5), -1, -1, 17, 1TD, -1, Fumble, 3, 29
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 12
1p: 8, I, 10, 6, 5, I, I, -1, I, 32, 8, I, I, I, 9, I, I, 3, 1 15
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 12
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Louisville 24
2r: 16(8), 3(4), 2(5), -1, 1(11), -1, 9(15), 0, 9, 3(9), 9(11), 1(7)
Total: Syracuse 5 Louisville 7
2p: -8S, 2(9), 7, I, I, -8S, I 22(11), I, I, 47TD, 10(2), 2, I, I, I, I, 18(11), 5(1), 9, -8S
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville13
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Louisville 20
3r: 0, 3,(1), 8, 3(8), 10, 9(6), 2(2)
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 1
3p: I, 6(3), 15TD, 4, +15P, I, 18, I, 23, 4TD, I, -12S, I, Interception, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 9
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 10
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Louisville 20
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 Louisville 35
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Louisville 55

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, +15, -5, +15, -5 Syracuse 3 Louisville 3

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 57 Louisville 64

Comment: 2/3 of our first down runs were stuffed. We are upset at the running attack but we were 17-20 on runs and only 22-35 on passes. Louisville gave us three first downs on penalties, (I thought it was more- they said 5 on the radio). Louisville won 59% of our plays from scrimmage, so we were not a very efficient offensive team despite the production, (414 yards and 28 points). It makes you wonder what they could accomplish when they are efficient. It’s been pointed out that all the Louisville ‘cramps’ seemed to come when Syracuse had the ball and was moving it. Syracuse had five “explosive”, (20+ yards) plays, the longest the 47 yard catch and run by AET.


When LOUISVILLE had the ball:

KO: SU35P, SU26, SU25, SU16, SU21, SU21, SU20, SU23, SU21, SU23
Total: Syracuse 2 Louisville 8
P: 47 to SU39, 37 to SU 38, 44 to SU21, 53 to SU 32, 41 to SU 26, 48 to SU 7
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 5
FG: No Good from 28, Good from 26, Good from 41
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 8

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 23

1r: 7, 7TD, 72TD, 9, 13TD, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 9TD, 30, 0, 21TD, -6, 20, 3, 75(14), 13, 3, 48TD, 30TD, 1, 5, 7
Total: Syracuse 6 Louisville 20
1p: 72TD, 55, I, I, 16, 12, I, 12, -8S, I, 23, 17, Interception, 20, 2, 32, I
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Louisville 29
2r: -9P, 29, 7, 9(18), 7, 2(3), -2, 11(9), -4, 0
Total: Syracuse 4 Louisville 6
2p: 61, I, I, Fumble, 16, 8,(5), I, 11, I, I, I, 0
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Louisville 10
3r: 50(18), 9(7), 1(1), o
Total: Syracuse 1 Louisville 3
3p: I, 9(6), I, Fumble, 28(9), P, I, I, I, 2(11), I, 20(13)
Total: Syracuse 8 Louisville 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Louisville 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Louisville 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 11 Louisville 29
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Louisville 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 24 Louisville 16

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -5, -5 Syracuse 3 Louisville 0

Game total when LOUISVILLE had the ball: Syracuse 99 Louisville 132

Comment: Louisville gained 845 yards, 191 more than the previous record given up by an SU defense, (West Virginia, 1993). We did manage to win 35 of 80 plays from scrimmage, 44%, better than the offense did. Some of that was Louisville drops, (which is why we “won” the pass plays, 24-16). The problem is, too many of the plays we lost wound up far downfield. They had 13 explosive plays, five of them longer than SU’s most explosive play: a 50 yard run, a 55 yard pass, a 61 yard pass and a 72 yard run and 72 yard pass. Without the drops, turnovers and penalties they might have gained 1000 yards and scored 80 points – or more.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: Syracuse 8 Opponent 4
P: Syracuse 11 Opponent 4
FG: Syracuse 4 Opponent 1
XP: Syracuse 7 Opponent 0

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 30 Opponent 9

1r: Syracuse 11 Opponent 22
1p: Syracuse 20 Opponent 19
First Down Total: Syracuse 31 Opponent 41
2r: Syracuse 8 Opponent 15
2p: Syracuse 16 Opponent 20
Second Down Total: Syracuse 24 Opponent 35
3r: Syracuse 9 Opponent 4
3p: Syracuse 12 Opponent 15
Third Down Total: Syracuse 21 Opponent 19
4r: Syracuse 1 Opponent 0
4p: Syracuse 2 Opponent 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Opponent 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 29 Opponent 41
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 50 Opponent 55
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 79 Opponent 96

Penalties not tacked on to plays: Syracuse 3 Opponent 7

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 112 Opponent 113

Comment: The above numbers certain reinforce the view that this offense, while productive, is far from running at full capacity. We aren’t doing badly on third or fourth down (24-20) but are spinning our wheels on 1st and 2nd down (55-76) and the primary reason for that is that we are getting stuffed on the run (19-37). We are also getting nothing from kick returns. We returned every one of Louisville’s 11 kick-offs and never got beyond the SU 26 on their own, (on the first one we got to the 35 due to a penalty: our man had been tackled at the 20. For the season have returned 13 kickoffs for 221 yards, exactly 17 yards a return. The opposition has punted 15 times. We have returned only 4 of them for 25 yards, an average of 6.25 yards a return but 1.7 yards per punt.


When the OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: Syracuse 2 Opponent 10
P: Syracuse 5 Opponent 12
FG: Syracuse 1 Opponent 2
XP: Syracuse 0 Opponent 9
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Opponent 33

1r: Syracuse 16 Opponent 24
1p: Syracuse 12 Opponent 13
First Down Total: Syracuse 28 Opponent 37
2r: Syracuse 13 Opponent 9
2p: Syracuse 14 Opponent 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 27 Opponent 13
3r: Syracuse 1 Opponent 5
3p: Syracuse 19 Opponent 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 20 Opponent 10
4r: Syracuse 0 Opponent 0
4p: Syracuse 0 Opponent 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Opponent 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 30 Opponent 38
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 45 Opponent 23
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 75 Opponent 61

Penalties not tacked on to plays: Syracuse 5 Opponent 0

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: Syracuse 88 Opponent 94

Overall game totals: Syracuse 200 Opponent 207

Comment: Frankly, I think the opponents we had in the first two games were so different and our performance against was so different that I don’t think these numbers mean anything yet. Our defensive numbers are a fruit salad of apples and oranges.

 

[SWC75]

Historical Winning Plays
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 75
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
TOTAL: Syracuse 200 Opponent 207