Year 3 Tends to be When You Kinda, Sorta Know...

[Millhouse]

I hope no one is expecting the next coach to produce a winning program by the third year.

It's not happening,

 

[Alsacs]

I give him a pass right now and a 4th year because of two things. Last year was a disaster with injuries. Yea every team suffers injuries but I've never seen a team get ravaged like we did and it's not like we're Alabama where 2nd and 3rd stringers are still studs. This year, yea he's made some coaching errors but we are young. Real young. He was left diddly in the upper classes, especially the skill positions and defense. About 70% of the starting lineup are kids. That's a big learning curve.

You are going to stay he was left nothing on defense?
Cam Lynch, Jay Bromley, Marquis Spruill. Brandon Reddish, Dyshawn Davis, Durell Eskridge.

I mean please don't try saying Marrone didn't leave a D please. This is year 3 when the heck does SS own it. You can say the WRs were weak but the OL and RBs were fine.

 

[Alsacs]

I hope no one is expecting the next coach to produce a winning program by the third year.

It's not happening,

I can be patient if I believe in the coach. This coach has not proven he gets it and doesn't deserve patience. IMO. Others can disagree as it is subjective.

 

[cuseguy]

I can be patient if I believe in the coach. This coach has not proven he gets it and doesn't deserve patience. IMO. Others can disagree as it is subjective.

I commend you, but people aren't going to accept 5 straight losing seasons.

 

[OrangeAggieArmy]

Except young talent, good defensive coaches, a very good QB, IPF, new or renovated stadium, a new AD...

Good defensive coaches?! Like the ones responsible for tackling and defending the forward pass?

 

[CuseOnly]

Exceptions to strong correlations do not disprove the correlation. If Scooch's data suggests that the vast majority of successful coaches show improvement in win-loss totals by year 3, pointing out exceptions like Cutcliffe and Beamer does not invalidate the correlation. There are probably 1000s of people (just making up numbers here) who smoke 2 packs a day and never get lung cancer. Does that prove that smoking does not cause cancer?

If the majority of successful coaches show improvement in win-loss totals by year 3, does that mean that Shafer will not have a Cutcliffe like career? Nope. It does show that he is in a much larger "risk pool."

I think a better set of stats that would relate better to Syracuse Football would be if you did the same thing and collected the same stats for teams ranked 25-80.

After all, if Shafer is fired, we will not be getting a coach that has a team in the top 25. Most likely not be getting a HC with D1 experience at all which is why I am against letting him go.

 

[CuseOnly]

Good defensive coaches?! Like the ones responsible for tackling and defending the forward pass?

I have never seen a coach defend a forward pass or make a tackle...have you?

Being responsible for the freshman who need to tackle and defend the forward pass is an entirely different thing.

 

[CuseOnly]

Why is four years enough but three years is too soon?

4 years may not be enough (unless it is Gerg) but 3 years is definitely not enough time.

If Gerg got 4 years, Shafer deserves another year at least.

 

[CuseOnly]

That's not the right kind of outlier, knock it off.

Are you comparing Stanford to Syracuse with regard to football or academics...I hope not.

Stanford has a sports endowment alone of $270 mil, they can change what they want, whenever they want.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahzhoS1p3k.8

The HC position is endowed, the DC and OC are endowed for millions.

 

[Crusty]

Are you comparing Stanford to Syracuse with regard to football or academics...I hope not.

Stanford has a sports endowment alone of $270 mil, they can change what they want, whenever they want.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahzhoS1p3k.8

The HC position is endowed, the DC and OC are endowed for millions.

They also deal with extraordinarily high living expenses and income taxes. Coaches can live a lot better lifestyles elsewhere.

 

[orangenirvana]

4 years may not be enough (unless it is Gerg) but 3 years is definitely not enough time.

If Gerg got 4 years, Shafer deserves another year at least.

I disagree. I feel just as sure about Shafer as I did about Gerg.

Gerg never had the benefit of a healthy program with a secure future in a major conference. Shafer does. Yet 3 wins in Year 2 followed by 4 wins at best barring a miracle.

And if Shafer is retained, what's going to happen next year? Squeak out a 6-6 record? Maybe if they catch some lucky breaks. Then what? Do you honestly see Shafer and his game management incapability leading this program to consistent Top 25 finishes?

We've been talking about how perfect an Air Raid system would be in the Dome for decades. This program needs a head coach with a history of overseeing such an offense. There are appropriate candidates out there. Now is the time.

 

[GoSU96]

4 years may not be enough (unless it is Gerg) but 3 years is definitely not enough time.

If Gerg got 4 years, Shafer deserves another year at least.

Why, P got bounced 3 years after going 10-3 and finishing in the top 15, in a 6-6 year with wins at the end of the year against 8-4 Uconn, 8-4 Pitt, 9-3 BC. They lost to 9-3 FSU 17-13. All while playing two first year players at QB.

Why not judge Shafer by that standard instead of one of the worst coaches in the history of the sport.

 

[CuseOnly]

They also deal with extraordinarily high living expenses and income taxes. Coaches can live a lot better lifestyles elsewhere.

Wasn't talking about lifestyle, was speaking to capacity to do whatever they want to do, they could sign a coach to a $10 mil contract for 2 years and fire them every year forever and not worry about it financially.

SU does not have that luxury. Shaw makes $3 mil, but who knows what other perks there are for that job. Hell, Schiano had a million dollar house on campus at RU.

 

[CuseOnly]

I disagree. I feel just as sure about Shafer as I did about Gerg.

Gerg never had the benefit of a healthy program with a secure future in a major conference. Shafer does. Yet 3 wins in Year 2 followed by 4 wins at best barring a miracle.

And if Shafer is retained, what's going to happen next year? Squeak out a 6-6 record? Maybe if they catch some lucky breaks. Then what? Do you honestly see Shafer and his game management incapability leading this program to consistent Top 25 finishes?

We've been talking about how perfect an Air Raid system would be in the Dome for decades. This program needs a head coach with a history of overseeing such an offense. There are appropriate candidates out there. Now is the time.

Been talking about an air raid offense for decades...key word "talking". Been talking about a lot of things.

What makes you think we can hire a Mike Leach type and for what SU is willing to pay? We will get another up and coming coordinator and be in the same spot learning on the job just like Shafer is doing.

How many coaches have we hired in our history with D1 head coaching experience? Yep Zero

Please explain to me why "now is the time"? There are candidates out there every year.

 

[rrlbees]

You are going to stay he was left nothing on defense? Cam Lynch, Jay Bromley, Marquis Spruill. Brandon Reddish, Dyshawn Davis, Durell Eskridge. I mean please don't try saying Marrone didn't leave a D please. This is year 3 when the heck does SS own it. You can say the WRs were weak but the OL and RBs were fine.

None are playing this year. That's why I started the sentence with the words this year.

 

[Alsacs]

Honestly I sometimes wonder if people watch non-Syracuse College Football. I honestly don't get what Scott Shafer has done as Head Coach to earn this patience.

I mean he is likable but the performance on the field has not been entertaining. We still are seeing mistakes that show the guy is learning on the job. Yet because we get buzzwords like "lock 'em", "hardnosed" people think we embrace that.

If Syracuse didn't give him the HC job I honestly don't believe he would be a HC in college football now and if he did it wouldn't be at the P5 level.

Nobody opinion's matters more than anyone's on this board but IMO SS needs to prove in these last 4 games he deserves another year to Coyle.

 

[TheCusian]

You are going to stay he was left nothing on defense? Cam Lynch, Jay Bromley, Marquis Spruill. Brandon Reddish, Dyshawn Davis, Durell Eskridge. I mean please don't try saying Marrone didn't leave a D please. This is year 3 when the heck does SS own it. You can say the WRs were weak but the OL and RBs were fine.

Wha? Huh? Mind boggling.

You want to put a lack of continuity on Shafer, but don't give him credit for the defense?!?! It got better when Marrone left! With a tougher SOS!

Marrone was an offensive minded coach, no? Don't we credit Marrone and Hackett for 2012? Marrone hired the right guy and was a CEO where even Shafer said "he got out of the way" ...

He owns this years D too. But cmon.

 

[orangenirvana]

Been talking about an air raid offense for decades...key word "talking". Been talking about a lot of things.

What makes you think we can hire a Mike Leach type and for what SU is willing to pay? We will get another up and coming coordinator and be in the same spot learning on the job just like Shafer is doing.

How many coaches have we hired in our history with D1 head coaching experience? Yep Zero

Please explain to me why "now is the time"? There are candidates out there every year.

As long as that up and coming coordinator understands college offense in 2015 and hasn't at one point said "Stats are for losers" I like my chances that he can do just as well managing a game as my Madden-playing nephew.

 

[Alsacs]

None are playing this year. That's why I started the sentence with the words this year.

I would put that on our current HC. He didn't inherit a team defense with no talent. By year 3 the players are his and DM left him enough for him stock it up.
Youth is not a valid excuse when DM left SS enough on D.

 

[orangenirvana]

Marrone was an offensive minded coach, no?

 

[Alsacs]

Wha? Huh? Mind boggling.

You want to put a lack of continuity on Shafer, but don't give him credit for the defense?!?! It got better when Marrone left! With a tougher SOS!

Marrone was an offensive minded coach, no? Don't we credit Marrone and Hackett for 2012? Marrone hired the right guy and was a CEO where even Shafer said "he got out of the way" ...

He owns this years D too. But cmon.

You aren't getting the point I was responding too. I don't care to explain it you because it will get tiring. Just know you are misinterpreting the point.

 

[TheCusian]

Good defensive coaches?! Like the ones responsible for tackling and defending the forward pass?

Look it up. #34 in 2013, #27 in 2014. No year in the last 7 above 65. Until this year - with 70% of the snaps being freshman and sophomores. It's not hard to see what variable changed.

Did they forget how to coach? Or did we get young?

 

[TheCusian]

You aren't getting the point I was responding too. I don't care to explain it you because it will get tiring. Just know you are misinterpreting the point.

You were saying that Shafer needs to own this years results on D. I'm saying he already owns the last 7. His recruits on D will be fine. They got caught with their pants down for going JUCO too much (that's on both coaches).

 

[rrlbees]

I would put that on our current HC. He didn't inherit a team defense with no talent. By year 3 the players are his and DM left him enough for him stock it up. Youth is not a valid excuse when DM left SS enough on D.

Where are the juniors and seniors on defense? They would have been in the program for 4 and 5 years.

 

[Alsacs]

You were saying that Shafer needs to own this years results on D. I'm saying he already owns the last 7. His recruits on D will be fine. They got caught with their pants down for going JUCO too much (that's on both coaches).

Kinda but not 100% what I was saying. if you want to say the offense wasn't stocked up and we are playing youth okay. I don't agree with this because DM left a stud OL and good RB stable.
On D we can't use the youth excuse when this is year 3 of SS. The D was left stocked up and this year's results are 100% on SS and not on what DM left. As DM left enough for SS to fill it back up and not get caught with his pants down.