yikes kenpom sees it as pretty much a toss-up

[JOC44]

Given that its just a statistical algorithm based on past results, it's likely that he's weighing it just right. However, he may overweigh or underweight specific home court advantages.

How many points is he giving us for home court advantage Saturday?

 

[FrancoPizza]

interestingly, he has us with a 69% probability of beating the bonnies...
I strongly believe (and have for years) kenpom overweighs the homecourt

Especially ours. Their equations don’t factor in that all home courts are not created equal. Should be some model that calculates distance from the court, average age of those closest to the court, student turnout relative to their allotment, etc.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Especially ours. Their equations don’t factor in that all home courts are not created equal. Should be some model that calculates distance from the court, average age of those closest to the court, student turnout relative to their allotment, etc.

Yes he does take into account strength of homecourt depending on where the game is.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Especially ours. Their equations don’t factor in that all home courts are not created equal. Should be some model that calculates distance from the court, average age of those closest to the court, student turnout relative to their allotment, etc.

I know the lure to you fof being able to take a potshot at SU is hard to resist. But I suppose someone should point out that last year it looked to a lot of outsiders like the Dome was a huge advantage - all the teams big wins occurred there.

 

[OrangeDW]

Especially ours. Their equations don’t factor in that all home courts are not created equal. Should be some model that calculates distance from the court, average age of those closest to the court, student turnout relative to their allotment, etc.

Eh, there’s much more to homecourt advantage than what the people in the stands are doing.

Playing/shooting in a building you’re comfortable with, sleeping at home, no travel, etc.

 

[Knicks411]

Eh, there’s much more to homecourt advantage than what the people in the stands are doing.

Playing/shooting in a building you’re comfortable with, sleeping at home, no travel, etc.

Also the refs definitely favor the home team.

 

[reedny]

Jessie Govan- 20.6 points per game 13 Rebs PG

He's enough to make me nervous.

And he's from Queens Village too. Mystery why he chose Jorgetown. But he's a good player. We're going to need Sidibe to play in this game and play well bc Chukwu is going to pick up fouls against him at 6'10/270. Mulmore and Johnson (guards) are as big as our guards and they can shoot it. No doubt they'll have out-of-body experiences against us. Big test for our defense.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Somewhat on the positive side is that Kenpom is suggesting that GTown doesn't suck. So that if SU loses it might not be taken as a bad loss, like last year.

Because while GTown might be 8-0, it's a very soft 8-0. And come tourney selection time if we lose to GTown and they have a losing record those 8 cream puff wins won't be much of a disguise that this would be a bad loss.

 

[Orangezoo]

I haven't seen the hoyas play this year but wondering if Ewing tries throwing it back 30 years and having his kids try and muck it up? I worry a bit about dirty play knowing he is a JT puppet and the history...

 

[Col. Bleep]

Somewhat on the positive side is that Kenpom is suggesting that GTown doesn't suck. So that if SU loses...

Certain that this is a typo.
It should actually read, "So that when SU beats the living daylights out of the most despicable team in the history of mankind..."

GO ORANGE!

 

[Brooky03]

Why is this a yikes? You could look at KenPom to guess the winner, or ask a Las Vegas bookie, or just ask Joe down the street. Your chances of being right are about the same with each one.

 

[reedny]

I haven't seen the hoyas play this year but wondering if Ewing tries throwing it back 30 years and having his kids try and muck it up? I worry a bit about dirty play knowing he is a JT puppet and the history...

If that happens, I hope it's not a one-point game. If it is, the refs will re-do the ending 2 or 3 times until GT wins.

 

[reedny]

Why is this a yikes? You could look at KenPom to guess the winner, or ask a Las Vegas bookie, or just ask Joe down the street. Your chances of being right are about the same with each one.

Off thread, but have you been watching the Knicks lately. Wow. They're playing well. The LA game was crazy. And they won at the Barklay center last night even though KP went out with a sore knee.

 

[pearl31]

And he's from Queens Village too. Mystery why he chose Jorgetown. But he's a good player. We're going to need Sidibe to play in this game and play well bc Chukwu is going to pick up fouls against him at 6'10/270. Mulmore and Johnson (guards) are as big as our guards and they can shoot it. No doubt they'll have out-of-body experiences against us. Big test for our defense.

Johnson plays forward and was bad last year, as were the rest of their returning players except for Govan and maybe Derrickson - could they have made a leap? yes, but nothing from their games so far this year (glorified scrimmages) serve to indicate anything... when I look at their first 8 games results I actually see a defense that allowed alot of points against very, very bad teams

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Eh, there’s much more to homecourt advantage than what the people in the stands are doing.

Playing/shooting in a building you’re comfortable with, sleeping at home, no travel, etc.

And let's not confuse Franco's negativity with reality. In the big games, where advantages are most sought after, SU has the biggest crowds - bar none (shockingly the size of the crowd was not a factor Franco recognized as significant).

 

[pearl31]

Why is this a yikes?

to me 90+ kenpom vs 50ish kenpom should produce a bigger spread - just seems a bit odd to me but again it mostly comes down to his homecourt adjustment

 

[reedny]

Johnson plays and was bad last year, as were the rest of their returning players except for Govan and maybe Derrickson - could they have made a leap? yes, but nothing from their games so far this year (glorified scrimmages) serve to indicate anything... when I look at their first 8 games results I actually see a defense that allowed alot of points against very, very bad teams

True, their defense is bad. They've struggled against some weak competition. But they have a couple of guards shooting at or near 50% and they're taking almost 20 threes a game. Plus they'll be tough inside with Govan. It's a game I would love to win because of the rivalry, and I think we're capable on paper. I just hope we stay out on their guards so they don't start chucking and get the crowd into it.

 

[Knicks411]

to me 90+ kenpom vs 50ish kenpom should produce a bigger spread - just seems a bit odd to me but again it mostly comes down to his homecourt adjustment

Yeah It's pretty much all home court; and that's also why the NCAA is modifying their team sheet this year.

 

[Brooky03]

Off thread, but have you been watching the Knicks lately. Wow. They're playing well. The LA game was crazy. And they won at the Barklay center last night even though KP went out with a sore knee.

They're actually fun to watch this year. They kind of remind me of this Syracuse team; not the most talented team but when they play cohesively, with strong effort on defense, they're not an easy team to beat.

 

[reedny]

They're actually fun to watch this year. They kind of remind me of this Syracuse team; not the most talented team but when they play cohesively, with strong effort on defense, they're not an easy team to beat.

They have a lot of pieces and Hornacek is a magician. Lee and Hardaway are not superstars but they're VERY talented and their young PG is going to be good. Kyle O'Quinn is a hoot to watch. Big game this weekend at the garden against OKC with Melo's return.

 

[Fat tire 13]

It's not a bigger question at all. It's just another question.

We haven't played a true road game and haven't beaten Georgetown away since 2011 (granted have played them with less frequency).

It's not like we're a juggernaut rolling into town. We don't know if we can win on the road at all.

Personally, I think we win. But you can't fault oddsmakers for calling this a pick em.

That 2011 game was so fun to witness in person. We ruined their senior night and Scoop was clutch. Can't believe that was over 6 years ago

 

[jncuse]

Home court is about 3.5 to 4 points.

So we would be 4 to 5 points favoured on a neutral court.

We are plus 12.9/100 possessions and they are 6.2/100. So the difference is 6.7 and adjust to a 70’possession pace, you would get 4,7 spread on a neutral court.

 

[Eric15]

Also the refs definitely favor the home team.

Everyone hates guys like Burr and Higgins, but if you're a visiting team in a hostile environment, those old farts are exactly who you want officiating the game.

 

[Eric15]

That 2011 game was so fun to witness in person. We ruined their senior night and Scoop was clutch. Can't believe that was over 6 years ago

I somehow ended up sitting in a luxury suite for that game with an unbelievable view of the court. In the suite next to us was Gross, Cantor, McNabb and some others. My friend and I stumbled into their suite after a healthy number of beers consumed, interrupted a conversation between Nancy Cantor and McNabb and got our picture taken with him. That was a good day.

 

[Brooky03]

They have a lot of pieces and Hornacek is a magician. Lee and Hardaway are not superstars but they're VERY talented and their young PG is going to be good. Kyle O'Quinn is a hoot to watch. Big game this weekend at the garden against OKC with Melo's return.

I wish OKC was doing better with Melo, for his sake. It'll be interesting to see if George and Westbrook make a conscious effort to get him the ball more in MSG. I'd imagine they would.