Wedneseday Bubble Schedule and Game Discussion

[orangenirvana]

shouldnt we root for nc state? arent they a lock? dont want bc going on any miracle run and stealing a bid.

NC State is probably a lock but BC would have to win it all and I just don't see that being humanly possible for them.

In the end this game probably doesn't matter but I'm wondering if BC can win today and tomorrow then maybe they can get into the Top 75 in RPI, which would give us an extra Quad 2 win.

 

[Tom W.]

Currently the bracket matrix still has us at first team out, but oddly the update was at 8pm, after having already updated once in the afternoon. Come on folks, this is crunch time, I want my rankings! lol

Well, because I know you are all dying to know what the great Tom W thinks, I have Syracuse still in my last 4 in over on TCW Bracketology this morning. I definitely think they can still make it with a loss tonight, but I would probably put the odds around 40%. With a win, I would say 97%.

In the meantime, I'll be pulling hard for the teams in OrangeNirvana's post.

 

[Tom W.]

NC State is probably a lock but BC would have to win it all and I just don't see that being humanly possible for them. In the end this game probably doesn't matter but I'm wondering if BC can win today and tomorrow then maybe they can get into the Top 75 in RPI, which would give us an extra Quad 2 win.

Yup. I'm on board with this. The BC win is just an RPI booster. I don't think we need to worry, they aren't winning the whole ACC tournament.

 

[Deano]

He's got teams with losing records in.

Probably thinks Pitt deserves to be in.

 

[TheCusian]

Yeah we don't need BC winning anymore games.

Ever. And in any sport

 

[SoBeCuse]

We’re still focusing too much on RPI. It’s just one tool and one supposedly being devalued.

 

[Jasoncuse]

Conference USA tournament will be interesting. MTSU is lined up with Marshall in the Semis, if they both win in the Quarters. Marshall beat MTSU twice this year...

Hopefully MTSU takes care of business. Would be funny to Cuse and MTSU matched up in a 5/12 or 6/11 line.

MTSU isn't getting a 5 or 6 seed. If anything, we'd see them in Dayton, or a 2nd round matchup as 12 vs 13...

 

[Tom W.]

We’re still focusing too much on RPI. It’s just one tool and one supposedly being devalued.

Well I don't think it is a huge focus, just something extra to pay attention to when we will take all the help we can get. Anytime teams we played twice win, it helps all computer numbers, even if only very marginally.

 

[CuseBBall]

Wednesday 'who to root for' schedule...

12:00 ESPN - Florida State over Louisville
2:30 ESPN - Boston College over NC State
3:00 PAC12N - Colorado over Arizona State
7:00 ESPN2 - Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
7:00 ESPNU - Oklahoma over Oklahoma State
7:00 FS1 - Georgetown over Saint John's (*dry heaves*)
7:30 CBSN - Colgate over Bucknell
9:00 PAC12N - Oregon State over Washington
9:30 ESPN2 - Syracuse over UNC
9:30 ESPNU - Iowa State over Texas
9:30 FS1 - DePaul over Marquette

I would add Buffalo over Central Michigan at Noon. If they win that tourney they should get into the top 30 of the RPI (currently number 32) and would add another Q1 win for us.

 

[SoBeCuse]

MTSU isn't getting a 5 or 6 seed. If anything, we'd see them in Dayton, or a 2nd round matchup as 12 vs 13...

Yeah, it’s because they are ranked (or were recently) in the polls clouding people’s judgement. The polls are just a popularity contest. They are going to need to win that conference to get in. They did nothing in the non-conference. They beat Vandy and Ole Miss but are 0-3 against teams who will be in the Tourney. They did beat Florida Gulf Coast also but those guys crapped the bed losing to Lipscomb so they’ll be in the NIT.

 

[Tom W.]

I would add Buffalo over Central Michigan at Noon. If they win that tourney they should get into the top 30 of the RPI (currently number 32) and would add another Q1 win for us.

I believe this game isn't until tomorrow.

 

[CuseBBall]

I believe this game isn't until tomorrow.

Good point. My bad.

 

[81South]

Possibly, but like Jake I'd much prefer facing UNC after a 2nd victory, and a decent likelihood of being in already. My man Frank quickly answered Allison about the back to back games and said they were used to it from AAU.

I would prefer that as well but given our history in this tournament and our lackluster season what are th odds that we would win 2 in a row this week to begin with? Tonight gives us a great opportunity to earn our way into the big dance.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

MTSU isn't getting a 5 or 6 seed. If anything, we'd see them in Dayton, or a 2nd round matchup as 12 vs 13...

Yeah, it’s because they are ranked (or were recently) in the polls clouding people’s judgement. The polls are just a popularity contest. They are going to need to win that conference to get in. They did nothing in the non-conference. They beat Vandy and Ole Miss but are 0-3 against teams who will be in the Tourney. They did beat Florida Gulf Coast also but those guys crapped the bed losing to Lipscomb so they’ll be in the NIT.

D'oh, thanks. You guys are right.

 

[Jasoncuse]

Really need VTech, Oklahoma (I think), Colorado, Iowa State and probably FSU. Lots of fellow bubbles playing today that could pick up respectable W's. I'd like to see Depaul beat Marquette, but that's not happening, so hopefully Nova smokes them tomorrow.

- Arizona State is so close to slipping right on out. I hope Colorado sticks it to them.
- I'm not sure if Oklahoma is such a lock. Oklahoma State has better W's, Texas might too and swept OU. Oklahoma has been terrible the past month or so. Baylor and Kansas St both went 5-1 against the 3, with KSU sweeping Baylor. TCU has probably the weakest resume in terms of good Wins, but they have the RPI/SOS buoyed by playing higher end mid-majors like Nevada, Bonnie, Belmont, etc. It's such a jumbled mess between the 6 and I'm wondering how many are locks and how many can quickly play their way out. It also seems tough to differentiate them, in addition.
- Our Wake and GTech losses stick out like a sore thumb in these comparisons.
- Marquette's resume looks very similar to ours. Similar big W's, similar high number of losses to top 10 teams. Solid middle of the resume. Etc.
- Compared to all these teams, Louisville shouldn't even be close. They have literally no bad losses, but wow, they've beaten next to nobody. It's such a cream puff resume.

Winning against UNC will give us a chip that a lot of these teams don't have, which could really set us apart from the pack. It's so big. If we lose, we'll be out before many of these others bubbles are, so those optics always seem to play a role somehow.

I really don't know how to differentiate the final 8-10 teams getting in from the first 4-6 out.

 

[jdubs30]

Yeah, it’s because they are ranked (or were recently) in the polls clouding people’s judgement. The polls are just a popularity contest. They are going to need to win that conference to get in. They did nothing in the non-conference. They beat Vandy and Ole Miss but are 0-3 against teams who will be in the Tourney. They did beat Florida Gulf Coast also but those guys crapped the bed losing to Lipscomb so they’ll be in the NIT.

Illinois State got left out lasat year with 28 wins - I don't think they beat anyone OOC, but it's not like Vandy and Ole Miss are good

 

[jdubs30]

Really need VTech, Oklahoma (I think), Colorado, Iowa State and probably FSU. Lots of fellow bubbles playing today that could pick up respectable W's. I'd like to see Depaul beat Marquette, but that's not happening, so hopefully Nova smokes them tomorrow.

- Arizona State is so close to slipping right on out. I hope Colorado sticks it to them.
- I'm not sure if Oklahoma is such a lock. Oklahoma State has better W's, Texas might too and swept OU. Oklahoma has been terrible the past month or so. Baylor and Kansas St both went 5-1 against the 3, with KSU sweeping Baylor. TCU has probably the weakest resume in terms of good Wins, but they have the RPI/SOS buoyed by playing higher end mid-majors like Nevada, Bonnie, Belmont, etc. It's such a jumbled mess between the 6 and I'm wondering how many are locks and how many can quickly play their way out. It also seems tough to differentiate them, in addition.
- Our Wake and GTech losses stick out like a sore thumb in these comparisons.
- Marquette's resume looks very similar to ours. Similar big W's, similar high number of losses to top 10 teams. Solid middle of the resume. Etc.
- Compared to all these teams, Louisville shouldn't even be close. They have literally no bad losses, but wow, they've beaten next to nobody. It's such a cream puff resume.

Winning against UNC will give us a chip that a lot of these teams don't have, which could really set us apart from the pack. It's so big. If we lose, we'll be out before many of these others bubbles are, so those optics always seem to play a role somehow.

I really don't know how to differentiate the final 8-10 teams getting in from the first 4-6 out.

No one does since it's a new committee who will all weigh things differently and might not weigh it like the past. Some members might use big wins as their main criteria (ideal for OK State), some might use computer numbers, some might use what you did away from home, some might use what you did out of conference. If we beat UNC, we have enough boxes checked that we could talk about maybe being an 8/9 (not that we'd want that)

 

[jgeorge322]

Don't want to create a separate thread for this.

Around the end of December I put $20 on Virginia to win the National Title at 40-1.

They are willing to pay me out $65. Do I just the profit and run. Or hang in there for the $800?

hang in there for $800.

 

[Tobias Funke]

hang in there for $800.

Agree unless you are in desperate need of $65 let it ride. There is a reason they are calling you in this.

 

[SoBeCuse]

D'oh, thanks. You guys are right.

No, I thought they were better as well. I took a look at their schedule and they have been masquerading a bit.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Like Jasoncuse said the Wake/GT and throw in ND ( without Colson/Farrell) losses worry me. When going up against those Big 12 bubble teams there aren’t those kinds of losses on the resume. That conference is strong top to bottom except for Iowa St.

 

[orangenirvana]

We’re still focusing too much on RPI. It’s just one tool and one supposedly being devalued.

I thought so too but it looks like it has re-gained its relevance this season.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Like Jasoncuse said the Wake/GT and throw in ND ( without Colson/Farrell) losses worry me. When going up against those Big 12 bubble teams there aren’t those kinds of losses on the resume. That conference is strong top to bottom except for Iowa St.

That ND game is killing us, as soon as the final buzzer went off and we lost that game I told my wife this game will keep us out of the tourney. We should have won by 15+, ND shot 14% in the first half. Everyone talks about the Bonnies game or Wake #1 or G-tech but the real daggers were that ND game and that game at FSU where Brisette airballed the game winner.

 

[jncuse]

BC could well get in my making it to the ACC Final game. Don't discount the impact of 3 quad 1 wins on anybody's resume this year.

That being said they won't make it that far.

 

[SoBeCuse]

That ND game is killing us, as soon as the final buzzer went off and we lost that game I told my wife this game will keep us out of the tourney. We should have won by 15+, ND shot 14% in the first half. Everyone talks about the Bonnies game or Wake #1 or G-tech but the real daggers were that ND game and that game at FSU where Brisette airballed the game winner.

Yup. Hopefully the committee is just going by the pure data in regards to that game and that those geeks aren’t aware both Colson and Farrell were out. Totally inexcusable since ND did nothing all game in that one and won.