Wedneseday Bubble Schedule and Game Discussion

[jncuse]

Some of the higher teams will still probably make it with a loss, although I don't think any want to test committee judgment. And as observed this weekend, one big win (or bad loss) will move you fairly significantly. BTW, I don't trust that BPI estimate that we 98% in after tonight.

% Brackets on Current Matrix

St. Bonaventure (99%) - Fri
Oklahoma (98%) - 7:00 vs Oklahoma St (Quad 2)
Texas (97%) - 9:00 vs Iowa St (Quad 3)
Arizona St (91%) - 3:00 vs Colorado (Quad 2)
UCLA (91%) - Thurs
Kansas St (90%) Thurs
USC (88%) - Thurs
Providence (84%) - Thurs
St. Mary's (81%)* - Done
Baylor (63%) - Thurs
Alabama (60%) - Thurs
---------
Syracuse (45%) - 9:00 vs UNC (Quad 1)
Marquette (36%) - 9:30 vs Depaul (Quad 3)
Louisville (31%) - 12:00 vs Florida St (Quad 1)
Oklahoma St (13%) - 7:00 vs Oklahoma (Quad 1)
Utah (7%) -Thurs
LSU (4%) - Thurs
Boise St (3%) - Thurs
Nebraska (3%) Done
Notre Dame (2%) ; 7:00 vs Virginia Tech (Quad 2)

Note - St. Mary's is based on new brackets only


Bubble Busters (teams that must win)
Middle Tennessee St - DNP
Rhode Island - DNP
Nevada - DNP

 

[jncuse]

I would certainly prefer Oklahoma to beat Oklahoma St (and knock out St). If Oklahoma St wins there is a serious risk that both get in.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Pretty sure vitale thinks 150 teams get into the tourney

 

[Briancuse]

Pretty sure vitale thinks 150 teams get into the tourney

He's got teams with losing records in.

 

[Tom W.]

Some of the higher teams will still probably make it with a loss, although I don't think any want to test committee judgment. And as observed this weekend, one big win (or bad loss) will move you fairly significantly. BTW, I don't trust that BPI estimate that we 98% in after tonight.

I agree. In my update tomorrow on TCW Bracketology, I'll have Syracuse remaining in my last 4 in. By no means a 98% chance right now. But they will move into safe territory with a UNC win for sure IMO.

 

[Tom W.]

I personally think ND needs two more wins to get an at-large, but people seem to be really high on them right now, and one may very well do it.

I also expect St. Mary's to continue to drop throughout the week. There are certain parts to the resume to like, like strong advanced metric numbers, high road/neutral win count, and overall record. However, they have a horrible SOS and NCSOS, and they have only 4 top 100 wins. It would not surprise me in the least to see them left out on Sunday.

I really hope we get the same Marek, Chukwu performance tomorrow night, beat UNC, and then take a little bit of a breath. I would be very surprised if we were left out with the UNC win added to our resume.

 

[Chris02M]

id put us at 98 % if we win tomorrow, somewhere in the 40-50% if we lose

 

[CaptainJ]

I'd put as at 99.314159 if we win tomorrow. As for right now, my magic 8 balls say "ask again later".

 

[jncuse]

As of now:
20% if we lose
90% if we win

It is amusing because some people said I was crazy for saying that 8-10, 2 ACC wins could be enough.

There is quite a few moving parts. Those %'s may change as the week goes on.

 

[jncuse]

Don't want to create a separate thread for this.

Around the end of December I put $20 on Virginia to win the National Title at 40-1.

They are willing to pay me out $65. Do I just the profit and run. Or hang in there for the $800?

 

[orangenirvana]

He's got teams with losing records in.

Dickie V has Pitt in his Last Four Out.

 

[orangenirvana]

Don't want to create a separate thread for this.

Around the end of December I put $20 on Virginia to win the National Title at 40-1.

They are willing to pay me out $65. Do I just the profit and run. Or hang in there for the $800?

Hang in for sure.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Don't want to create a separate thread for this.

Around the end of December I put $20 on Virginia to win the National Title at 40-1.

They are willing to pay me out $65. Do I just the profit and run. Or hang in there for the $800?

let it ride, even though UVA doesn't look great right now.

 

[Easy Goer]

Don't want to create a separate thread for this.

Around the end of December I put $20 on Virginia to win the National Title at 40-1.

They are willing to pay me out $65. Do I just the profit and run. Or hang in there for the $800?

I say ride it out. Any one team is still a bit of a long shot to win it all but if $45 is that big of a deal you probably shouldn't have bet the $20 to begin with.

Hang in for the chance to make a nice score. You can probably hedge for a lot more money if they make it far enough too.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Don't want to create a separate thread for this.

Around the end of December I put $20 on Virginia to win the National Title at 40-1.

They are willing to pay me out $65. Do I just the profit and run. Or hang in there for the $800?

Take the money.

 

[pearl31]

As of now:
20% if we lose

IMO you're way conservative with this

 

[PauliePeppas]

Don't want to create a separate thread for this.

Around the end of December I put $20 on Virginia to win the National Title at 40-1.

They are willing to pay me out $65. Do I just the profit and run. Or hang in there for the $800?

Hang in...can start hedging at sweet 16 .

 

[jncuse]

I say ride it out. Any one team is still a bit of a long shot to win it all but if $45 is that big of a deal you probably shouldn't have bet the $20 to begin with.

Hang in for the chance to make a nice score. You can probably hedge for a lot more money if they make it far enough too.

I am thinking of putting the $65 on any other team in the tournament and that would pay off at least $520... Villanova would be about $600.

 

[jncuse]

IMO you're way conservative with this

I prefer to be conservative with many moving parts... and I am not sure that 20% is overly conservative to be honest.

 

[Easy Goer]

I am thinking of putting the $65 on another team instead to pay $500-$700 instead.

Yeah good point/idea with that too. I'd still probably ride it out for awhile though.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

IMO you're way conservative with this

I prefer to be conservative with many moving parts... and I am not sure that 20% is overly conservative to be honest.

There is a ton of variance right now. Results tomorrow (in non-SU games) can swing the percentages bigly.

 

[Toga]

Don't want to create a separate thread for this.

Around the end of December I put $20 on Virginia to win the National Title at 40-1.

They are willing to pay me out $65. Do I just the profit and run. Or hang in there for the $800?

Leave the cannolis

 

[Shark58]

Counter at $150

 

[bevosu]

Maybe they'll up the offer if Virginia wins a game or two in the tourney?

 

[81South]

It is amusing because some people said I was crazy for saying that 8-10, 2 ACC wins could be enough.

Well it helps that unc, ranked #12, slipped to
the 6 seed as a result of tie breakers.